A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[mvp 78]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I like Sogard, Seigler and Romy. We don't need all 3 on the 26 nor should we ever have all 3 on the 26, unless 2 infielders are hurt, but to be the upgrade from these 3 to Dubon is not worth that money.

I know- I know, you will claim I'm defending JH's wallet. Joke or not, the restricted budget for real.

Seigler is starting in WOO. Seems pretty obvious. Romy and Sogard don't serve the same purpose. Romy is there for his bat only. Sogard is UTIL guy to play all over the IF. Romy can't do that. 

[JoeBrady]

On 11/10/2026 at 10:19 AM, moonslav59 said:

Arias for Lopez and Alcantara?

I'm not sure BOS says yes. Make em take KC's contract, too?

No.  Alcantara had a 6.4 K9.  Difficult to succeed with that number, plus a bad September.  And Miami's insistence that a pitcher with an injury history should lead the league in IPs.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

No.  Alcantara had a 6.4 K9.  Difficult to succeed with that number, plus a bad September.  And Miami's insistence that a pitcher with an injury history should lead the league in IPs.

I'm not one to think every player repeats last year's numbers over and over.

Alcantara was returning from a serious injury.

He's a high risk. I get it. It would be a gamble to trade for him, and I would not overpay for him.

[JoeBrady]

On 11/10/2026 at 12:55 PM, mvp 78 said:

If they aren't good, they aren't MLB ready. 

A lot of the best prospects get pushed, so the numbers are not necessarily great.

[JoeBrady]

On 11/10/2026 at 1:59 PM, mvp 78 said:

There's value in having a cheap contract on the books at a starting position. 

One of my favorite philosophies.  If we have enough cheap players that can provide a 2.0-2.5 WAR, that means we can afford a lot of FAs that provide the 4-5-6 WARs.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

One of my favorite philosophies.  If we have enough cheap players that can provide a 2.0-2.5 WAR, that means we can afford a lot of FAs that provide the 4-5-6 WARs.

I understand the value in extending SOME guys. I understand the value in why you don't necessarily extend everyone. Abreu has made less than 4M so far, but has provided 76M in value per Fangraphs! He will most likely be paid less than 20M total through 2029 and be worth 150M to the Sox. 

[JoeBrady]

On 11/11/2026 at 12:30 PM, mvp 78 said:

Players that got a lot better: Turang, Bauers, Chourio, Miz. When 4 of your best players add and additional 11+ WAR to your team, it makes a difference. 

Breslow is waiting on guys to just get better. We'll have to see if Roman and others can make that jump.

Excellent comment imo.  I think too many in the RSN don't want to give prospects a long leash.  Some top MLB prospects fail, but few get traded until they fail.  Even the top spending teams like LAD, NYY, Philly, and the NYM still promote prospects every year.  They don't get concerned that Jones, Painter, Ewing, Benge, De Paula, etc.,, might struggle.  They just don't.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

They clearly needed 6M towards IKF last season. If he stayed healthy, he would have played 100+ G. 

IKF was the right plan.  Story got hurt and needed a replacement.  And IKF did fine as a replacement, until he got injured.  Same with keeping Duran.  The philosophy was correct, but the results were lacking.

[moonslav59]

56 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

One of my favorite philosophies.  If we have enough cheap players that can provide a 2.0-2.5 WAR, that means we can afford a lot of FAs that provide the 4-5-6 WARs.

With an owner like JH, this is very important, indeed. We can argue all day on why we shouldn't have to do this, but the reality is, it helps.

Compared to many teams, especially the better ones, we have a large amount of pre-arb and erb players, plus some of our younger players locked up beyond ard years and a pretty low upfront cost. (It doesn't help the CB Tax budget, but yearly costs matter too.)

Of course all prospects, including Arias are pre-arb, but so  are...

Tolle, Bennett, Mead, Durbin, Sogard, Seigler, Gasper, Moran (no options) Gamboa, Samaniego, Olds, Burgos & Paez

Arb 1: Miller, Slaten, Weissert, Guerrero, Monasterio & Jones (no options)

Arb 2: Abreu, Romy, Casas & Wong

Arb 3 of 4: Duran, Crawford & White (no options)

Last Arb: Rutschman, Oviedo & Houck

That's about 15-16 players with meaningful roles on the team- maybe more.

Extended players 2027 cost (AAV)

$3.3M ($7.5M) KC

$3.8M ($$6.3M) Rafaela

$4.6M ($16.3M) Anthony

$8.3M + $10.5M club option for Whitlock

$8.7M ($9.2M) Bello

Contracts that seem reasonable:

$28.7M Crochet ($28.7M AAV to 2031)

 

$17M/1 w option Contreras

$15.6M Suarez ($26M AAV to 2030 w option)

Underwater deals:

$25M/1 + $5M buyout Story

$18M/1 Yoshida

 

 

 

[notin]

46 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

IKF was the right plan.  Story got hurt and needed a replacement.  And IKF did fine as a replacement, until he got injured.  Same with keeping Duran.  The philosophy was correct, but the results were lacking.

IKF was Mayer Insurance.  It turns out, Mayer needed lots of insurance…

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

IKF was Mayer Insurance.  It turns out, Mayer needed lots of insurance…

Sogard, Seigler and Monasterio were, too. They also kept Cheng on the 40, and he was the SS when the great stretch began.

IMO< that was more than we needed, but some of these were largely unknowns, so that's why they signed IKF.

We also had Romy on the 40 along with Story & Mayer- the starting middle infielders. (Durbin could play 2B, but our 3B depth was not deep. Rafaela can plays 2B/SS too.)

[notin]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

No.  Alcantara had a 6.4 K9.  Difficult to succeed with that number, plus a bad September.  And Miami's insistence that a pitcher with an injury history should lead the league in IPs.

Alcantara? Easy pass.

I know you can never have enough pitching, but the Sox just finished a season where they lead the league in games lost due to injury.  Maybe avoiding a pitchers whose elbow has been rebuilt more times than St. Paul’s Cathedral is a good starting point.

And while there is a better than solid chance Tolle and Bennett do not repeat after their workloads in 2026, both have at least earned the opportunity to show as much …

[notin]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sogard, Seigler and Monasterio were, too. They also kept Cheng on the 40, and he was the SS when the great stretch began.

IMO< that was more than we needed, but some of these were largely unknowns, so that's why they signed IKF.

We also had Romy on the 40 along with Story & Mayer- the starting middle infielders. (Durbin could play 2B, but our 3B depth was not deep. Rafaela can plays 2B/SS too.)

Unlike those players, IKF at least showed himself to be a capable of unexciting MLB starter.  Coming off a season where the Sox pushed Abraham Toro into a major role, I have no issues with IKF serving as depth…

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Seigler is starting in WOO. Seems pretty obvious. Romy and Sogard don't serve the same purpose. Romy is there for his bat only. Sogard is UTIL guy to play all over the IF. Romy can't do that. 

I know Sogard and Romy don't serve the same purpose, and it does create roster crunch issue keeping both instead of one guy like Dubon, but it still does not convince me it's money well spent for a team with a tight winter budget.

If we trade Duran, Romy has a role as the platoon DH and 3rd sting 2B/1Bman. Sogard hads a role as the first back--up at 1B, 2B and 3B. Wong is the back-up catcher, until  we add someone. The 4th bench piece can be Jones or White. I don't see the Dubon upgrade, and it would be an upgrade, as worth taking away from money spent on a bigger and better bat or two.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Unlike those players, IKF at least showed himself to be a capable of unexciting MLB starter.  Coming off a season where the Sox pushed Abraham Toro into a major role, I have no issues with IKF serving as depth…

Yes, the others were unknown. I get why they did it.

In hindsight, we didn't really need him. (We did replace Mayer with Mead, and then need back-up for him, but our subs did okay.)

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

With an owner like JH, this is very important, indeed. We can argue all day on why we shouldn't have to do this, but the reality is, it helps.

 

My worry is what happens once the extensions get long in the tooth and the cash exceeds the AAV. If the cash outlay is larger than CBT, do we still see JH pull back from spending even more? CBT drops and cash outlay stays about the same? 

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Alcantara? Easy pass.

I know you can never have enough pitching, but the Sox just finished a season where they lead the league in games lost due to injury.  Maybe avoiding a pitchers whose elbow has been rebuilt more times than St. Paul’s Cathedral is a good starting point.

And while there is a better than solid chance Tolle and Bennett do not repeat after their workloads in 2026, both have at least earned the opportunity to show as much …

Alcantara is ok, but I wouldn't be knocking down the door to bring him in. He'd clearly be the 5th starter here. Why spend a lot of capital on a guy that won't be pitching in the postseason and will only be here for one season? 

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

One of my favorite philosophies.  If we have enough cheap players that can provide a 2.0-2.5 WAR, that means we can afford a lot of FAs that provide the 4-5-6 WARs.

No you cant because you dont want to swing at the 4-5-6 WAR offensive players even when they are there, see last offseason.  And I dont think there will be many there going forward.

Trades are going to kind of become the name of the game vs building through free agency or even all homegrown.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Excellent comment imo.  I think too many in the RSN don't want to give prospects a long leash.  Some top MLB prospects fail, but few get traded until they fail.  Even the top spending teams like LAD, NYY, Philly, and the NYM still promote prospects every year.  They don't get concerned that Jones, Painter, Ewing, Benge, De Paula, etc.,, might struggle.  They just don't.

Because they surround them with stars.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Unlike those players, IKF at least showed himself to be a capable of unexciting MLB starter.  Coming off a season where the Sox pushed Abraham Toro into a major role, I have no issues with IKF serving as depth…

My only issue with IKF was that I knew we were going to be light on offense, and he wasnt signed for a bat.  Lesson learned though with Mead and Bauer now.  Not every player has to be glove first.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

My worry is what happens once the extensions get long in the tooth and the cash exceeds the AAV. If the cash outlay is larger than CBT, do we still see JH pull back from spending even more? CBT drops and cash outlay stays about the same? 

Nope.

[drewski6]

Whether the cash excceds the CBT or the CBT exceeds the cash is not super impactful because the CBT hardly matters.  If the cash is high for JH, he will be slightly more reluctant to spend, and he will factor that in to future decisions.  

But like every decision maker with a brain, decisions will be made case by case not by following some overly simplistic set of rules like "do not exceed x amount"

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Whether the cash excceds the CBT or the CBT exceeds the cash is not super impactful because the CBT hardly matters.  If the cash is high for JH, he will be slightly more reluctant to spend, and he will factor that in to future decisions.  

But like every decision maker with a brain, decisions will be made case by case not by following some overly simplistic set of rules like "do not exceed x amount"

The cash or some limit obviously matters more now than it did prior to 2019. That's why they are no longer top 3 in spending. You can't say CBT doesn't matter or there is no budget they are following. There have been reports that they had to pull back on coaching hires because of money still owed to Cora's staff! Clearly they are beholden to some sort of budget more than anything else. We just don't know what that number is.