A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[JoeBrady]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We had tickets to see Led Zeppelin but Plant's son died, and they cancelled the tour. 

That's a major list.  No love for Chrissie Hynde, Deep Purple, Aerosmith, or GNR?

[JoeBrady]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We will be using a platoon of...

Gasper & Jones

Gaspar is a guy that I'd really like to keep.  But to do so, that really requires a position for him.  And if he is a strong-side platoon at DH, then we aren't adding anyone else at DH.

[JoeBrady]

22 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

A trade for DLC or Abrams might be enough by itself, or it might allow us to sign a pitcher and not add a second everyday player.

I don't see Abrams at all.  DLC is a star, and a clear-cut SS for us.  Abrams has already played himself off of SS.  If we acquired him, it's a toss-up between him and Mead at 2, with the loser going to DH.  If the return is cheap enough, then anything is good.  But imo, the cost to acquire will be more than he is worth.  And while I don't hold a person's past against him, the casino issue has to be considered.

[JoeBrady]

26 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

he Red Sox, though, seem to have issues lately with prospects turning into solid big leaguers,

Ceddanne, Abreu, Tolle, and Bennett all say hello.

[Old Red]

26 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Platoons aren't going away, and we're watching a World Series where each team platoons half their positions depending on which arm they're facing...

... though I have no prob rooting against a club that pinch-hits for its #5 batter who homered earlier in the game (like the Rays did the other night).

But it's nice to develop such quality depth for use off the bench. The Red Sox, though, seem to have issues lately with prospects turning into solid big leaguers, so the smartest front office in their own room gets to pat itself for signing DFAs like Gonzalez and Jones to DH. 

 

And pat themselves they do.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Ceddanne, Abreu, Tolle, and Bennett all say hello.

Yes, but KC, Marshmallow Mayer, and little A were supposed to be the cream of the crop along with Teel.🤔

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Ceddanne, Abreu, Tolle, and Bennett all say hello.

Abreu and Ceddanne came up in '23! That's not really "lately" IMO. They are clear veterans going into next season. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Big Four say owww!

Password says eightsixsevenfivethree0nine.

And Casas says do-dodoot-dodoot-dododoot-doot...

[NHNative]

Looking at the article on FA for 27, I would like to see Sato and Bauers for bats and Jeffers if Wong is gone.

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, JimEd said:

might as well throw in Tarik Skubal as we have about as much chance landing him as any of those you listed.

Murakami signed for $34M/2- way below estimates.

Okamoto signed for $60M/4.

I'm not saying Sato gets the same or less, but do we know?

If Sato gets $100M/4, you don't think the Sox can pay that? They paid more for Suarez.

I doubt we outbid others for Suzuki, but I think we can pull off a big trade, with Arias as the centerpiece, and yes I think we can win the Sato sweepstakes.

Just get one of the 4, and I think that greatly improves our chances. Let's say we trade Arias, Duran (+cash) and Primera for DLC, this could be out starting 9 w depth listed:

C: Rutschman, Wong, Gasper, Jo Garcia

1B: Contreras, Mead, Romy, Sogard, Gasper/Casas

2B: Mead, Story, Seigler, Romy, Sogard, Monasterio

SS: DLC, Story, Sogard, Monasterio, Cheng

3B: Durbin, Story, Mead, Monasterio, Eaton

LF: Anthony, Duran, Yoshida, White, Jones

CF: Rafaela, Duran, Anthony, White, Ward

RF: Abreu, Anthony, White, KC, Eaton

DH: Story, Mead, Anthony, Yoshida-Jones, Gasper-Romy

SP: Crochet, Tolle, Suarez, Bennett, Bello// Houck, Oviedo, Crawford// Paez, Wehunt, Holobetz

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Miller, Slaten, Guerrero, Weissert, Moran, Samaniego//Kelly, Gamboa, Olds, Rivera// Mullins, Bastardo, Song

 

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

That's a major list.  No love for Chrissie Hynde, Deep Purple, Aerosmith, or GNR?

Love the Pretenders and Aerosmith. I saw Aerosmith both live.

Never was big on DP and GNR.

 

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, Old Red said:

Of course there are other ways to win than trying to duplicate past WS winners, but I haven’t seen it happen. Just plugging Guys in at DH doesn’t seem like it works for the Red Sox.

The 2013 team had the big bat you spoke of, but was far from the blueprints of 2004, 2007 and 2018.

One could argue other non WS winning teams looked better on paper.

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Gaspar is a guy that I'd really like to keep.  But to do so, that really requires a position for him.  And if he is a strong-side platoon at DH, then we aren't adding anyone else at DH.

Too bad he's too awful to be a back-up catcher.

He's okay as aback-up 1Bman & platoon DH, but we'd have to shed Yoshida or stack him in AAA.

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The 2013 team had the big bat you spoke of, but was far from the blueprints of 2004, 2007 and 2018.

One could argue other non WS winning teams looked better on paper.

Three of those teams had Big Papi’s big bat, and the other in 2018 had JD, and Raffy’s big bat something the 2026 team needed, and didn’t have, and the team doesn’t have that now.

[moonslav59]

Speaking of a platoon DH: 2026 OPS (career or recent)

(Not including Mead .816 v R/ .897 v L) or Anthony- career .865 v R/ .686 v L)

vs RHPs (about 70% of starts)

.902 Gasper (.748 career)

.796 career Casas (revers splits, but almost even)

.784 Seigler (.677 career)

.743 Yoshida (.784 career- had reverse splits in '26/ .834 in '24)

_______________________________

vs LHPs (about 30% of starts)

.814 career Casas

.813 Sogard (.800 career)

.742 Jones (.804 career)

.618 Romy (.978 in '25 and ;879 in '24)

________________

MLB TOP OPS v LHPs since 2024 (300+ PAs)

13. Romy .892

31. Jones .849

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Three of those teams had Big Papi’s big bat, and the other in 2018 had JD, and Raffy’s big bat something the 2026 team needed, and didn’t have, and the team doesn’t have that now.

Yes, I think it is way easier to win a WS ring with a big bat.

I can say it 50 more times, if you want: WE NEED AN ELITE BAT.

You know what else we can say about every ring team?

All 4 had two headliner SP'ers (unlike many of the losing Sox teams since '67, '75...)

Pedro & Schilling '04

Beckett & Schilling '07

Lester & Lackey '13

Sale & Price '18

Knowing now what we didn't know in March, Gray and Tolle turned out to be "headliners," but in March, it looked like Crochet & Suarez could maybe fill that past ring mold.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, I think it is way easier to win a WS ring with a big bat.

I can say it 50 more times, if you want: WE NEED AN ELITE BAT.

You know what else we can say about every ring team?

All 4 had two headliner SP'ers (unlike many of the losing Sox teams since '67, '75...)

Pedro & Schilling '04

Beckett & Schilling '07

Lester & Lackey '13

Sale & Price '18

Knowing now what we didn't know in March, Gray and Tolle turned out to be "headliners," but in March, it looked like Crochet & Suarez could maybe fill that past ring mold.

True the 67 team didn’t have much starting pitching outside of Lonnie, but they also had to go through BOB Gibson. The 75 team had El Tiante, but they also had to go through the Three time WS defending champion A’s just to get to the Big Red Machine.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Old Red said:

True the 67 team didn’t have much starting pitching outside of Lonnie, but they also had to go through BOB Gibson. The 75 team had El Tiante, but they also had to go through the Three time WS defending champion A’s just to get to the Big Red Machine.

Both '67 and '75 went 7 games.

2-1 in Lonborg starts

3-0 in Tiant starts.

You think a second top pitcher greatly improves the odds or one more win?

Certainly, those two teams had the bats!

I almost mentioned teh 1986 team, who had Clemens but really no second top pitcher. Hurst was really good, so I skipped over that team. We have lost several times with 2 really good pitchers, but the fact is every 4 ring teams had two. Oh, and that '86 team had a great DH: Don Baylor with 34 dingers. They also had Jim Rice!

Both were part of a group of 4 players excelling at your favorite stat: RBI:

110 Rice (61 XBHs)

102 Buckner (59 XBHs)

97 Evans (51 XBHs)

94 Baylor (55 XBHs)

All 4 with the OBP leader (.453) with them: Boggs- also led MLB in BA at .357.

 

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Both '67 and '75 went 7 games.

2-1 in Lonborg starts

3-0 in Tiant starts.

You think a second top pitcher greatly improves the odds or one more win?

Certainly, those two teams had the bats!

I almost mentioned teh 1986 team, who had Clemens but really no second top pitcher. Hurst was really good, so I skipped over that team. We have lost several times with 2 really good pitchers, but the fact is every 4 ring teams had two. Oh, and that '86 team had a great DH: Don Baylor with 34 dingers. They also had Jim Rice!

Both were part of a group of 4 players excelling at your favorite stat: RBI:

110 Rice (61 XBHs)

102 Buckner (59 XBHs)

97 Evans (51 XBHs)

94 Baylor (55 XBHs)

All 4 with the OBP leader (.453) with them: Boggs- also led MLB in BA at .357.

 

Remember Lonnie was pitching in game 7 on only 2 days rest, so another top pitcher would have helped, but maybe not enough to beat Gibson.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

Remember Lonnie was pitching in game 7 on only 2 days rest, so another top pitcher would have helped, but maybe not enough to beat Gibson.

There were 4 other games I was thinking of.

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The 2013 team had the big bat you spoke of, but was far from the blueprints of 2004, 2007 and 2018.

One could argue other non WS winning teams looked better on paper.

Pedroia 24th fWAR

Victorino 25th fWAR

Ellsbury 26th fWAR

Ortiz 8th wRC+

Napoli 34th wRC+

Nava 36th wRC+

Rotation: Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Dempster (Peavy added at deadline)

If they weren't coming off '11 and '12, I think there would have been more expectations on that team TBH, especially with that rotation. 

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

You know what else we can say about every ring team?

All 4 had two headliner SP'ers (unlike many of the losing Sox teams since '67, '75...)

Clemens and Hurst were a very good one/two punch in 86. The problem for the 86/88/90 teams were the pen. 

86 24th (out of 26) ERA, 17th LOB

88 16th ERA, 19th LOB

90 25th ERA, 26th LOB! (Larry Andersen pen)

Lou Gorman absolutely did not care about the bullpen. 

 

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Too bad he's too awful to be a back-up catcher.

He's okay as aback-up 1Bman & platoon DH, but we'd have to shed Yoshida or stack him in AAA.

He's a pretty bad defensive catcher, but if you just keep him as the backup is it ok for 40 G? If he can hit 800, is the trade off fair? 

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's a pretty bad defensive catcher, but if you just keep him as the backup is it ok for 40 G? If he can hit 800, is the trade off fair? 

The Great Gasper had his time at times in 2026, but I wouldn’t count on him to do it again in 2027.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The Great Gasper had his time at times in 2026, but I wouldn’t count on him to do it again in 2027.

I'd rather take a chance on Gasper than run back to the well with Wong again. Just give me two interesting depth guys at AAA. It's also not too hard to find a backup during the season like Jake Rogers. 

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd rather take a chance on Gasper than run back to the well with Wong again. Just give me two interesting depth guys at AAA. It's also not too hard to find a backup during the season like Jake Rogers. 

With Rust Man’s injury problems the past two you you can pretty much count on the backup getting plenty of work.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

With Rust Man’s injury problems the past two you you can pretty much count on the backup getting plenty of work.

If Johanfran Garcia is in AAA, we may see him at BOS in 2026. He could either be an impact bat or not be able to hit anything due to his contact rates. Lots of power though.

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Pedroia 24th fWAR

Victorino 25th fWAR

Ellsbury 26th fWAR

Ortiz 8th wRC+

Napoli 34th wRC+

Nava 36th wRC+

Rotation: Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Dempster (Peavy added at deadline)

If they weren't coming off '11 and '12, I think there would have been more expectations on that team TBH, especially with that rotation. 

They were coming off the massive Dodger dump trade.  Expectations were from unsure to not very good, as I recall.

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Johanfran Garcia is in AAA, we may see him at BOS in 2026. He could either be an impact bat or not be able to hit anything due to his contact rates. Lots of power though.

That’s your idea of a reliable backup catcher?

[mvp 78]

31 minutes ago, Old Red said:

That’s your idea of a reliable backup catcher?

Did I say that?