A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said:

The biggest need is still a right-handed power bat. If Gray walks (I think he will) he will need to be replaced. The Sox have a team that can make the playoffs, but to make a run in October more fine tuning will need to be done.

I think a LHB is needed more, but one of both would be even nicer.

Team OPS:

.734 v L (.722 v games with LH SP)

.710 v R (.715 v games with RH SP)

The gap is SLG (.024) is more than OBP (.009.) Much less power v RHPs.

While this looks pretty close, look at the splits by players:

v RHPs (returning players listed w 100+ PAs)

.902 Gasper (may start 2027 on IL)

.878 Contreras

.817 Anthony

,816 Mead w WSH

.784 Seigler

.743 Yoshida

.742 Rafaela

.735 Abreu

.716 Durbin

.693 Sogard

.648 AR (2 teams) .747 career

.633 Duran

.631 Wong

.615 Story

.602 Monasterio

(If Casas returns, he could help v RHPs)
Maybe 4 Good batters and 4-5 okay batters. (Maybe Abreu can be counted as good, if he is more like career.)

v LHPs (60+ PAs)

1.058 Jones (not sure he can keep this up)

.966 Contreras

.897 Mead w WSH

.854 Abreu (first reverse split season in career)

.813 Sogard

.811 Rafaela

.791 AR (2 teams)

.722 Monasterio

.711 Wong

.696 Durbin

.648 AR (2 teams) Career .767

.636 Story

.608 Duran (should not start v LHPs)

.588 Anthony (an outlier)

(Romy has been great v LHPs but was injured)

Maybe 5 good batters and maybe 3-5 okay batters, counting Romy, Anthony and AR (maybe Story) doing better.

 

[moonslav59]

Perhaps the best batters on the market?

RHB/LHB

1. de la Curz

(Lindor, KMarte, Happ)

LHB

1. Sato

2. Abrams

3. B Lowe (bad splits v LHPs)

RHB

1. Suzuki

2. Neto

3. Torres

[moonslav59]

In short, our losses via free agency seem very manageable over the next few years:

Gray- this winter

AR & Chapman- next winter

Contreras & Whitlock after 2028.

Abreu & Miller after 2029.

Every other significant player is under control for 4 or more years.

This is not a call to stand pat: it is the opposite. Now is the time to pounce. We lose some big salaries in the next year or two. We need to go for it.

Big and Bold.

Large and Long.

[southpaw777]

On 10/1/2026 at 3:29 PM, moonslav59 said:

 

Tough way to end the season. That magical stretch was just that: magic. It’s difficult to think about next year, so soon, and there are so many unanswered questions and unknowns- many centered around injured players or players that had better or worse than expected 2026 seasons. There are not many FAs lost issues, except Gray. It could be a huge loss, but it’s really just one. IKF & Sandoval are not significant losses.

I’ll get into budget issues later on, but wanted to start off with what the roster and foundation look like going into 2027. IMO, the 26 man roster will involve some tough choices as some players are out of options, paid handsomely or coming off the IL to a slot that is already filled. If we make the minimum 2-3 additions I think are needed, that will further squeeze the 26. I’m not too worried about the 40 man roster crunch, even if we add 3 new players. It’s not that I dislike our “bubble players,” but I don’t think we need to worry about cutting a few loose or trading some. Each winter, Brez seems to trade away a bunch of these types for prospects or same level players.

Before any changes are made, here is what I see is the likely 26 man roster. I’m going to put Gray, but only because I feel strongly that we will bring him back or try to replace him in kind. (I’ll go with Arias in AAA, since he is not a Rule 5 guy and can wait to be added. I’d prefer he start the year as out FT SS.) I’m also assuming Duran is gone, but if he’s back, one from Jones or White will be traded, since both are out of options.

SP: Tolle, Crochet, Gray, Suarez, Bennett

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Miller, Bello, Slaten, Guerrero, Houck, Moran (no options)

C: Rutschman & Wong

1B: Contreras

2B: Mead

3B: Durbin & Sogard

SS: Story

LF: Anthony, Jones

CF: Rafaela, White

RF: Abreu

DH: Yoshida

The rest of the 40 could be… (14 in AAA/AA)

9: Oviedo, Crawford, Weissert, Romy, Monasterio, Gasper, Campbell, Gamboa, Paez

5 from:

Trade/DFA: Duran, Casas, Eaton, Cheng, Rivera, Samaniego, Kelly, Burgos, Olds

Rule 5: Brannon, Jo Garcia, Wehunt, Ward (Ro Hernandez, Mullins, Romero/Rogers)

If and when we do add players (assuming no 1-for-1 trades, we will need to bump others down. I think we’ll trade Duran and maybe Story (add Arias) or Yoshida (add Casas.) We’ll add Brannon, Jo Garcia and Wehunt to the 40. We’ll keep Eaton, Cheng, Rivera and Samaniego.

The last point I will hit on for the kick-off post is this: Where is our biggest need areas and who might we bump out of a starting slot or significant role?

Most likely players to hold slots/roles (in order of most likely to return) :

Everyday:

CF Rafaela

1B Contreras

RF Abreu

C Rutschman

2B/DH Mead

3B Durbin

DH/LF Anthony (is higher on list but injury drops him)

This leaves SS (Arias, Story, Monasterio, Cheng) and LF/DH (Yoshida, Jones, White, Campbell, Gasper-Jones, Sogard-Romy) as the most upgradeable positions.

Pitching

SP1 Crochet

SP2 Tolle

SP3 Gray (or replacement)

SP4 Bennett

SP5 Suarez

Closer Chapman

RP2 Whitlock

SP/RP Bello

RP3 Miller

SP/RP Houck

SP/RP Crawford & Oviedo

RP: Slaten, Moran & Weissert

Maybe we bring Gray back or sign Nick Martinez, King or Morejon.

I hope there is no prolonged lock-out, and we have a productive off season. I’m glad we extended Brez & Tracy. From 2020 to 2023, the Sox went 2 under .500. Under Brez, we’ve been +26 games in 3 seasons. Although we had less wins in 2026 than 2025, I think the team got better, at least on paper- before all the injuries.

Let’s hope JH is willing to spend, and Brez still has the good trade mojo. Let's bring Gray or someone like him back. Let's add a nice pen piece (Morejon?) and a big bat (____???_____.)

 

I can see them not giving arb to Houck (projected 4.1m) Crawford (2.3m) Oviedo (1.8m) and Casas (1.8m)

I can see pretty much all the first year arb guys getting deals.

Duran Story and Yoshida need be traded. Arias should be our SS.
I don’t see Gray coming back. I see them maybe using Bello, although I’d try and move him as well. They could also sign one of the many back end rotation arms available for less than Sonny Gray on the FA market. Lots of options for that 5th spot. I do like Gray a lot and would give him a nice deal. He’s earned it IMO, but I don’t see them doing that unfortunately.

my big sign… I want Arozarena. Great fit. We NEED some power. They’ll have to Get him for at least his age 32-35. But I believe This guy will hit 30hr in Fenway, hit a bunch of 2bs and probably raise his BA a little. He can trade DH/LF with Anthony. Perfect fit IYAM. I’m not afraid of a 35 yo player. Not this guy at least. 
and after the haul they gave away for him, resigning Adley for 4+ years makes sense. He’ll be 29 next year. He’s still young and we don’t have anyone who will possibly be ready at Catcher until maybe 2029. I believe he would give us good production if he can stay healthy.

theres really not much to get except a big legit power bat, a RH starter, resigning Adley and getting rid of some wasted roster spots worth about 60m in potential payroll. Gives us money for Adley and Arozarena and some arbitration cases.

our farm looks really good. I expect a lot of promotions this year for a number of players. Primera, Goodbout, Hull, Schaffner, and Gonzales with a few names from 11-30 to keep an eye on as well. 
overall this team will be in a good position moving forward with a few needed moves this offseason. Not sure 2027 is going to happen. I hope they can work things out. Cap, floor, profit sharing. We’ll see. 

 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, southpaw777 said:

I can see them not giving arb to Houck (projected 4.1m) Crawford (2.3m) Oviedo (1.8m) and Casas (1.8m)

I can see pretty much all the first year arb guys getting deals.

Duran Story and Yoshida need be traded. Arias should be our SS.
I don’t see Gray coming back. I see them maybe using Bello, although I’d try and move him as well. They could also sign one of the many back end rotation arms available for less than Sonny Gray on the FA market. Lots of options for that 5th spot. I do like Gray a lot and would give him a nice deal. He’s earned it IMO, but I don’t see them doing that unfortunately.

my big sign… I want Arozarena. Great fit. We NEED some power. They’ll have to Get him for at least his age 32-35. But I believe This guy will hit 30hr in Fenway, hit a bunch of 2bs and probably raise his BA a little. He can trade DH/LF with Anthony. Perfect fit IYAM. I’m not afraid of a 35 yo player. Not this guy at least. 
and after the haul they gave away for him, resigning Adley for 4+ years makes sense. He’ll be 29 next year. He’s still young and we don’t have anyone who will possibly be ready at Catcher until maybe 2029. I believe he would give us good production if he can stay healthy.

theres really not much to get except a big legit power bat, a RH starter, resigning Adley and getting rid of some wasted roster spots worth about 60m in potential payroll. Gives us money for Adley and Arozarena and some arbitration cases.

our farm looks really good. I expect a lot of promotions this year for a number of players. Primera, Goodbout, Hull, Schaffner, and Gonzales with a few names from 11-30 to keep an eye on as well. 
overall this team will be in a good position moving forward with a few needed moves this offseason. Not sure 2027 is going to happen. I hope they can work things out. Cap, floor, profit sharing. We’ll see. 

 

Our farm is no longer that good, but we do have Arias, Gonzo & (far away) Primera.

Some say Arozarena is not a fit and is a head case. I'm not sure.

I agree on trying to shed Duran, Yoshida and Story and add some budget space.

[Old Red]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Our farm is no longer that good, but we do have Arias, Gonzo & (far away) Primera.

Some say Arozarena is not a fit and is a head case. I'm not sure.

I agree on trying to shed Duran, Yoshida and Story and add some budget space.

#1 the farm crop might not have been as good as so many thought rankings, and hype aside. All the Blue Chippers  KC, and Mayer just to name two haven’t lived up to much of anything so far. little A hasn’t been able to stay on the field, and for that matter neither has Teel who helped with the rankings at one time. Casas was a Blue Chippers ant one time too. Arias is next up. I keep hearing about the core of the team. All these Blue Chippers should be the Core of the team right now.🤔

[mvp 78]

4.1M to Houck isn't that much even if that is just to use him in the pen. 

[Old Red]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

4.1M to Houck isn't that much even if that is just to use him in the pen. 

Agree, and if healthy Houck may get another shot in the rotation when 1, or more of the starters go down, or BBL implodes again.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Agree, and if healthy Houck may get another shot in the rotation when 1, or more of the starters go down, or BBL implodes again.

If Houck is the 6th or 7th starter, it seems like a good idea to not non-tender him for budget reasons. They need to pretend to be a serious franchise. If they let him go, he'd be on the next flight to Tampa and would have a monster season.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

If Houck is the 6th or 7th starter, it seems like a good idea to not non-tender him for budget reasons. They need to pretend to be a serious franchise. If they let him go, he'd be on the next flight to Tampa and would have a monster season.

Or the Yankees, or the O’s, or even Toronto.

[Hitch]

15 hours ago, southpaw777 said:

I can see them not giving arb to Houck (projected 4.1m) Crawford (2.3m) Oviedo (1.8m) and Casas (1.8m)

 

 

There's zero chance those three don't get their arbs. Why would you let them walk for that price? Duran will almost certainly get his, too.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Hitch said:

There's zero chance those three don't get their arbs. Why would you let them walk for that price? Duran will almost certainly get his, too.

The only way I give Duran and arb is if a trade is already agreed upon. Better yet, trade him before offering the arb. Save the $11M to put tow addards a big add.

I'd also try to save $3-5M on Yoshida and $4-6M on Story by unloading one or both.

[JoeBrady]

46 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd also try to save $3-5M on Yoshida

If you had a DH available with a 111 OPS+, how much would you pay him?  Or, how high do you want your DH OPS to be, and how much would you pay for that?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

If you had a DH available with a 111 OPS+, how much would you pay him?  Or, how high do you want your DH OPS to be, and how much would you pay for that?

1. I doubt anyone projects a 111 OPS+ for Yoshida in 2027.

2. I think GM should worry about him not playing full seasons.

3. I think he might get $3-5M/1 as a FA, hence that is his expected payback, if we trade him for no return but cash savings.

4. I'd prefer Story or Mead at DH over Yoshida (Arias at SS). I'd prefer a Gasper-Jones platoon. I'd prefer a Sogard-Romy platoon.

 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think GM should worry about him not playing full seasons.

He's averaged only a half a season the past 3 years as a DH!!! That should be obvious to everyone. 

[Old Red]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's averaged only a half a season the past 3 years as a DH!!! That should be obvious to everyone. 

Yes, but let’s remember one of those years he was in parts unknown working on rehabbing his shoulder so he could spend so much time in the OF. Seems the Red Sox had a pretty good DH then at least for awhile.

[southpaw777]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

There's zero chance those three don't get their arbs. Why would you let them walk for that price? Duran will almost certainly get his, too.

Depends on their plan. If they see him as a 5th starter, then ok. I’m not sure they do. And being budget conscious now, they may not do that if they see him as depth. Same goes for Crawford. Neither has been healthy for a couple years. Remember, Breslow hasn’t been afraid to flip pitching depth to fill needs. Those two make 7m between them. That’s a lot if they’re considered 6-7-8 in the rotation.

neither one can be depended on to stay healthy.

[southpaw777]

On 10/17/2026 at 1:25 AM, Larry Cook said:

Gray’s strikeouts per 9 innings dropped below 8 this year: his fip was 3.47 which means the defense bailed him out a good bit this year!  
 

not sure that bres-slow sees value in a short pitcher with those type numbers!!!  
 

I would love to have gray back, but we have a data driven management team that sees things differently!  
 

I think Tolle and Bennett have dead arm next season due to the massive innings spike they experienced in 2026. (See crochet and Crawford for examples) 

a rotation of : 

1.) crochet 

2.) suarez

3.) Houck 

4.) bello

5.) Oviedo 

Depth: paez and Crawford! 

For 2027 is scary!!!  therefore; we need another starter. 
 

ps: need to go balls out to sign moorjon, best stuff of the relievers available 

I’m also concerned what both will look like next season. I was barking about their IP all over this forum. . Lots of off time then a slow ramp up. Low pitch counts to start the season when applicable. We could also have a lock out and all of this won’t matter anyway. Well see.

id like Gray again but I doubt they pay the price.

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Yes, but let’s remember one of those years he was in parts unknown working on rehabbing his shoulder so he could spend so much time in the OF. Seems the Red Sox had a pretty good DH then at least for awhile.

His shoulder was injured enough that he was unable to play the field for some reason. I don't understand how they've handled him in any season except for '23. They tried him for a year and then gave up. 

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, southpaw777 said:

Depends on their plan. If they see him as a 5th starter, then ok. I’m not sure they do. And being budget conscious now, they may not do that if they see him as depth. Same goes for Crawford. Neither has been healthy for a couple years. Remember, Breslow hasn’t been afraid to flip pitching depth to fill needs. Those two make 7m between them. That’s a lot if they’re considered 6-7-8 in the rotation.

neither one can be depended on to stay healthy.

It'd make more sense to sign and trade than just let them go. 

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

His shoulder was injured enough that he was unable to play the field for some reason. I don't understand how they've handled him in any season except for '23. They tried him for a year and then gave up. 

In 23 the Red Sox were hurting for OF help, and that’s why Bloom was so obsessed with Masa he shut down the bidding process in record time to get him. 

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

In 23 the Red Sox were hurting for OF help, and that’s why Bloom was so obsessed with Masa he shut down the bidding process in record time to get him. 

Should have just skipped signing Turner/Masa/Duvall and just signed Judge instead. 

[southpaw777]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It'd make more sense to sign and trade than just let them go. 

Yes, I should have put that In as well. 

[moonslav59]

Okay, a lot of talk about the Sox rotation depth (Houck, Crawford, Oviedo) and even their #5 (Bello.) No doubt, we have major questions. Hell, even Crochet has questions. Some question how Suarez can't give 160 IP. Some worry Tolle & Bennett were overused and are high risk.

My main point is that the same is true, or worse, for other contenders. 

New York Yankees:

1. Schlitter: To those worried about Tolle & Bennett jumping their IP from 2025, do you worry about Cam going from 76 to 204 counting the playoffs? (Granted Cam had 120 IP two years ago on the farm and about 150 last year in AAA and MLB, but Tolle had 107, last season.)

2. Fried will be 33 and missed about 1/3 of this season and a half season in '23. I guess when other pitchers get hurt and come back, we should have no questions or concerns, right?

3. Cole is 36, missed all or 2025, came back to look pretty good this year in 22 GS, but he's got just 39 GS in 3 seasons (232 IP.) Is he less of a risk than Crochet or Suarez?

4. Rodon will be 34 and could be viewed as the poster boy for inconsistent IP and even performance levels to a lesser extent. 29 GS from '19-'21 combined then 31>14>32>33>16 (last year.) Please, nobody say they trust his health more than just about anyone but maybe Crawford or Oviedo, who are our #7 & 8 not #4..

5. Warren has looked very trustworthy with 33 and 29 GS in the last 2 years (318 IP, and he's in prime.) His career 4.59 ERA is not great and 1.37 WHIP this year are not what I'd say beats out how good Bello, Houck and Crawford have shown they can be.

6. Weathers is also prime, but 2026 is the first season he's gone over 18 GS and 95 IP. How reliable is he? Don;t get me wrong: I like this guy, and warren too but how much can we trust them?

7. Elmer Rodriguez is young and has only 6 career MLB GS. (5.40 ERA)

8. Luis Gil is prime, but has had several issues. 84 IP in the last 2 years combined. He looked real good in 2024 (29 GS and 3.50 but a 4.14 FIP) but so did Houck. Crawford's best year was 2023, but all these guys are question marks.

(Clarke Schmidt FA)

IMO, Houck and Crawford still have some high hopes. Neither is old. Both were healthy to end 2026. (Oviedo, too.)

Here's a shorter look at the Rays SP'ers.

Nick Martinez (most IP 180) had a 3.10 ERA and was their ace. He's a FA, so it's kinda like us losing Gray.

Rasmussen and McClanahan could both be viewed as an ace. Drew had 30 & 31 GS. I do trust him, but he's kinda like Suarez- not a lot of IP for all those GS (322 in last 2 years and only about 220 in the previous 3 seasons combined. Shane had TJS last year, so why do we trust him so much? Sure, he was better than Houck and others but he went 118 IP, this year. He's never been over 166.

Griffin Jaz will be 32 and doesn't impress me any more than Bello/Houck/Crawford/Oviedo. He was mostly a RP from '22-'25.

(Peralta is a FA, too.)

Ian Seymour  (132 IP 4.21 ERA) is the only depth I see.

Am I missing something? 

Are the Rays or Yanks set up better than we are for starters? Top 5 and then 6-7-8?

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay, a lot of talk about the Sox rotation depth (Houck, Crawford, Oviedo) and even their #5 (Bello.) No doubt, we have major questions. Hell, even Crochet has questions. Some question how Suarez can't give 160 IP. Some worry Tolle & Bennett were overused and are high risk.

My main point is that the same is true, or worse, for other contenders. 

New York Yankees:

1. Schlitter: To those worried about Tolle & Bennett jumping their IP from 2025, do you worry about Cam going from 76 to 204 counting the playoffs? (Granted Cam had 120 IP two years ago on the farm and about 150 last year in AAA and MLB, but Tolle had 107, last season.)

2. Fried will be 33 and missed about 1/3 of this season and a half season in '23. I guess when other pitchers get hurt and come back, we should have no questions or concerns, right?

3. Cole is 36, missed all or 2025, came back to look pretty good this year in 22 GS, but he's got just 39 GS in 3 seasons (232 IP.) Is he less of a risk than Crochet or Suarez?

4. Rodon will be 34 and could be viewed as the poster boy for inconsistent IP and even performance levels to a lesser extent. 29 GS from '19-'21 combined then 31>14>32>33>16 (last year.) Please, nobody say they trust his health more than just about anyone but maybe Crawford or Oviedo, who are our #7 & 8 not #4..

5. Warren has looked very trustworthy with 33 and 29 GS in the last 2 years (318 IP, and he's in prime.) His career 4.59 ERA is not great and 1.37 WHIP this year are not what I'd say beats out how good Bello, Houck and Crawford have shown they can be.

6. Weathers is also prime, but 2026 is the first season he's gone over 18 GS and 95 IP. How reliable is he? Don;t get me wrong: I like this guy, and warren too but how much can we trust them?

7. Elmer Rodriguez is young and has only 6 career MLB GS. (5.40 ERA)

8. Luis Gil is prime, but has had several issues. 84 IP in the last 2 years combined. He looked real good in 2024 (29 GS and 3.50 but a 4.14 FIP) but so did Houck. Crawford's best year was 2023, but all these guys are question marks.

(Clarke Schmidt FA)

IMO, Houck and Crawford still have some high hopes. Neither is old. Both were healthy to end 2026. (Oviedo, too.)

Here's a shorter look at the Rays SP'ers.

Nick Martinez (most IP 180) had a 3.10 ERA and was their ace. He's a FA, so it's kinda like us losing Gray.

Rasmussen and McClanahan could both be viewed as an ace. Drew had 30 & 31 GS. I do trust him, but he's kinda like Suarez- not a lot of IP for all those GS (322 in last 2 years and only about 220 in the previous 3 seasons combined. Shane had TJS last year, so why do we trust him so much? Sure, he was better than Houck and others but he went 118 IP, this year. He's never been over 166.

Griffin Jaz will be 32 and doesn't impress me any more than Bello/Houck/Crawford/Oviedo. He was mostly a RP from '22-'25.

(Peralta is a FA, too.)

Ian Seymour  (132 IP 4.21 ERA) is the only depth I see.

Am I missing something? 

Are the Rays or Yanks set up better than we are for starters? Top 5 and then 6-7-8?

Still hung up on what the other teams have like some how that’s going to make the Red Sox depth look better. 🤔

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, Old Red said:

Still hung up on what the other teams have like some how that’s going to make the Red Sox depth look better. 🤔

How else would you know how good the depth is or not? 

[NHNative]

What do you suppose the conversation between Gray and Brez looks like?

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, NHNative said:

What do you suppose the conversation between Gray and Brez looks like?

"Hey Sonny, it's Craig."

"Call my agent."

Click.

[NHNative]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

"Hey Sonny, it's Craig."

"Call my agent."

Click.

Sad, but could be.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

How else would you know how good the depth is or not? 

Do you care what the Yankees depth looks look like? How does that affect the Sox?