A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[NHNative]

Has the 'realistic view' been established yet?

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, notin said:

Anthony in RF.  Houck, Crawford and Oviedo replace Bennett…

Anthony would not be a good RF'er in Fenway.

I don't want Duran handed LF again, either.

We could maybe add someone else besides Abreu, but I'd still do the trade. (Then sign Suzuki.)

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Absolutely no doubt he’s a risk?🤭. Nobody said to trade both Tolle, and Early for him, and the Report out said the Red Sox offered Tolle, or Early, but NOT both. WOW,

I'm glad we got Mead for Early and were able to keep Arias- perhaps for another trade to come.

[Hitch]

6 hours ago, notin said:

Anthony in RF.  Houck, Crawford and Oviedo replace Bennett…

I'd worry about Anthony breaking more often covering that ground out there for half a year. I assume we're keeping Duran in left?

Those three worry me right now.

[Hitch]

5 hours ago, Old Red said:

You’re worried about who would play RF if the Red Sox traded for DE LA Cruz. As for Bennett’s replacement. Did it cost $$$ to get Bennett in the first place?

Yes, as we sadly can't clone him to play RF, SS, and pitch, too. 

No, just another highly rated pitcher that we no longer have in the minors.

[Hitch]

5 hours ago, notin said:

Why not get a 2b with serious OBP skills to stick a top the lineup and let Gold Glover Durbin stay where he plays best?

Either, or. As long as we do one of them.

[Hitch]

4 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I don't think many of these proposals are particularly wholistic.  We might have an opportunity for an upgrade at SS, but we don't have a hole.  We can't make a trade to upgrade one position, while opening up holes at two other positions.  If the two choices are:

Arias + Abreu + Bennett, or

Elly + ??? + ???, then I'm betting on Arias ++.

The argument might be that we can always sign FAs, but we could do that with mortgaging our future.

Agreed. 👍

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, NHNative said:

Has the 'realistic view' been established yet?

None that will ever be agreed upon by even a majority of posters.

My realistic view is we need an elite bat and SS makes the lost sense. (DH/LF is next and maybe 2B/3B is 3rd.)

What might be "realistically" probable?

We sign Arozarena and make a trade.

 

[moonslav59]

Any of the 2 or 3 for one trades would need JH allowing Brez to add a major FA piece to reverse the loss at the second position.

For example:

Trade Arias, Abreu & Oviedo for DLC and sign Suzuki.

Trade Arias, Durbin & Oviedo for DLC and sign Sato.

Trade Arias, Mead & Oviedo for DLC and sign Sato or BLowe/Chisholm?

Not sure how realistic this is.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Baez has a career 0.1 bWAR.  And I don't normally pick prospects based on their neighborhood.

I can't imagine someone's career WAR could be so low after just making the big leagues. Once first graders learn how to read they should be ready for War and Peace. And after my teenager opens his first can of beans he should be ready to beat Bobby Flay. We taught our puppy how to sit and now we're waiting for him to sit on the tractor and mow the lawn. What's taking so long.

[moonslav59]

One team that may have a very interesting off season is HOU. They look to be in serious decline, finisihed at .500 and have several underwater contracts and stars & aging stars with 1-2 years of control.

Do the unload and go total rebuild?

Do they try for one more year of glory?

Do the try to rebuild some, while not giving up on 2027 and or 2028?

I know they don't want 2 years of Duran for 1 year of Pena, but if we gave them Godbout and took back the sunken cost or Javier Vazquez, do they listen or hang up?

Pena 27.6 and Vazquez -14.9

for

Godbout 9.3 and 4.4 Duran (We could add Monasterio or maybe Cheng/Romero)

BTV accepts this too: do you?

Durbin, Duran, Sogard & Cespedes

for

Yordan (2 yrs) and Paredes (1 yr)

[notin]

24 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I can't imagine someone's career WAR could be so low after just making the big leagues. Once first graders learn how to read they should be ready for War and Peace. And after my teenager opens his first can of beans he should be ready to beat Bobby Flay. We taught our puppy how to sit and now we're waiting for him to sit on the tractor and mow the lawn. What's taking so long.

I’d like to recommend some content changes to the show called Beat Bobby Flay.  I think it would be better and less misleading if there was no cooking…

[Old Red]

43 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Any of the 2 or 3 for one trades would need JH allowing Brez to add a major FA piece to reverse the loss at the second position.

For example:

Trade Arias, Abreu & Oviedo for DLC and sign Suzuki.

Trade Arias, Durbin & Oviedo for DLC and sign Sato.

Trade Arias, Mead & Oviedo for DLC and sign Sato or BLowe/Chisholm?

Not sure how realistic this is.

None of it. All of those DLC trades would be rejected by the other team despite what you, or BTV would suggest, predict, or anything else you want to call it.

[notin]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

One team that may have a very interesting off season is HOU. They look to be in serious decline, finisihed at .500 and have several underwater contracts and stars & aging stars with 1-2 years of control.

Do the unload and go total rebuild?

Do they try for one more year of glory?

Do the try to rebuild some, while not giving up on 2027 and or 2028?

I know they don't want 2 years of Duran for 1 year of Pena, but if we gave them Godbout and took back the sunken cost or Javier Vazquez, do they listen or hang up?

Pena 27.6 and Vazquez -14.9

for

Godbout 9.3 and 4.4 Duran (We could add Monasterio or maybe Cheng/Romero)

BTV accepts this too: do you?

Durbin, Duran, Sogard & Cespedes

for

Yordan (2 yrs) and Paredes (1 yr)

I doubt Houston trades Yordan right after he wins MVP.  Especially since he is still under contract through 2028.  

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

None of it. All of those DLC trades would be rejected by the other team despite what you, or BTV would suggest, predict, or anything else you want to call it.

CINCY is notorious for asking for mega-overpays. It might be best to look at Abrams or even Neto and other second tier options.

I don't think we can afford to put all our eggs in the Arias basket. (I don't trust Story as the back-up either.)

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

I doubt Houston trades Yordan right after he wins MVP.  Especially since he is still under contract through 2028.  

I doubt they are shopping him. They still have some well-known players on the downside. They may think they have a 1 year window, when Pena, Paredes and other lose team control. They may not.

[Old Red]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

CINCY is notorious for asking for mega-overpays. It might be best to look at Abrams or even Neto and other second tier options.

I don't think we can afford to put all our eggs in the Arias basket. (I don't trust Story as the back-up either.)

I agree. Supposedly the Sox checked on Neto last year. I never count on a suspect, and I know Arias is the Blue Chipper next up now until they prove otherwise, but he would be a cheaper option.

[notin]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

CINCY is notorious for asking for mega-overpays. It might be best to look at Abrams or even Neto and other second tier options.

I don't think we can afford to put all our eggs in the Arias basket. (I don't trust Story as the back-up either.)

Or not look at SS as a position for an upgrade.    Gven the very weak FA class, any team looking to move a star player like Neto or De Le Cruz is in the driver's seat for their demands.

The simplest path might be to sign Jazz Chisholm for 2b, especially if the Yankees as rumored are not offering hima QO (per MLBTR).   Hold Story as a placeholder for Arias.

Chisholm 2b  (granted, not an ideal OBP)

Anthony LF

Contreras 1B

Abreu RF

Mead DH

Rutschman C

Rafaela CF

Story/Arias SS

Durbin 3B

 

It does give the Sox a better top of the order than they had this year.  Then you need to replace Gray, who likely declines his half of the mutual option.   Michael King?  Trevor Rogers? Shota imanaga? Freddy Peralta?  There are at least decent pitching options.

It turns out you can put all your eggs in the Story/Arias basket if you're counting on them to bat 8th or lower.

They could also put Mead at 2b and take the defensive hit, but it's not like there are good DH options in this class.., 

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Or not look at SS as a position for an upgrade.    Gven the very weak FA class, any team looking to move a star player like Neto or De Le Cruz is in the driver's seat for their demands.

The simplest path might be to sign Jazz Chisholm for 2b, especially if the Yankees as rumored are not offering hima QO (per MLBTR).   Hold Story as a placeholder for Arias.

Chisholm 2b

Anthony LF

Contreras 1B

Abreu RF

Mead DH

Rutschman C

Rafaela CF

Story/Arias SS

Durbin 3B

 

It does give the Sox a better top of the order than they had this year.  Then you need to replace Gray, who likely declines his half of the mutual option.   Michael King?  Trevor Rogers? Shota imanaga? Freddy Peralta?  There are at least decent pitchig topions/

WOW you’ve gone from Semien to Jazz at 2B. Not only no, but hell NO.

[notin]

11 minutes ago, Old Red said:

WOW you’ve gone from Semien to Jazz at 2B. Not only no, but hell NO.

Well, Semien was only mentioned as an example of a bad contract swap.   Jazz will be a free agent.    And some of us prefer to mention names that are actually available or potentially available when we bring them up.

Wait until I tell you who the next up-and-coming power hitter is going ot be in 2027.   You won't believe me at all...  But is someone the Sox should absolutely target, although not sure his team is interested in moving him ...

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

Or not look at SS as a position for an upgrade.    Gven the very weak FA class, any team looking to move a star player like Neto or De Le Cruz is in the driver's seat for their demands.

The simplest path might be to sign Jazz Chisholm for 2b, especially if the Yankees as rumored are not offering hima QO (per MLBTR).   Hold Story as a placeholder for Arias.

Chisholm 2b  (granted, not an ideal OBP)

Anthony LF

Contreras 1B

Abreu RF

Mead DH

Rutschman C

Rafaela CF

Story/Arias SS

Durbin 3B

 

It does give the Sox a better top of the order than they had this year.  Then you need to replace Gray, who likely declines his half of the mutual option.   Michael King?  Trevor Rogers? Shota imanaga? Freddy Peralta?  There are at least decent pitching options.

It turns out you can put all your eggs in the Story/Arias basket if you're counting on them to bat 8th or lower.

They could also put Mead at 2b and take the defensive hit, but it's not like there are good DH options in this class.., 

I've mentioned Chisholm (and BLowe) as options for a 2B upgrade. Perhaps the best part of that play is to further squeeze Story out of a slot to play while moving Mead to DH and forcing a Duran trade.

His .711 OPS in his walk year is kinda scary, but he's only 28. He did hit 30 HRs in 2025, so maybe 19 in '26 was a fluke.

He bats lefty and has a career .662 split v L, but that's better than BLowe.

I just don't view him as "enough."

Maybe Abrams is more obtainable. He's 26 and hit 33 HRs this year and had 34 2B+3Bs.

67 XBH is part of a 3 year upward trend.

59 XBHs in '25

55 XBHs in '24

52 XBHs in '23

He also has had 30+ SBs for 4 straight seasons.

The .313 career OBP should not concern some here. (.322 last 3 yrs and .336 this year.)

[drewski6]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Or not look at SS as a position for an upgrade.    Gven the very weak FA class, any team looking to move a star player like Neto or De Le Cruz is in the driver's seat for their demands.

The simplest path might be to sign Jazz Chisholm for 2b, especially if the Yankees as rumored are not offering hima QO (per MLBTR).   Hold Story as a placeholder for Arias.

Chisholm 2b  (granted, not an ideal OBP)

Anthony LF

Contreras 1B

Abreu RF

Mead DH

Rutschman C

Rafaela CF

Story/Arias SS

Durbin 3B

 

It does give the Sox a better top of the order than they had this year.  Then you need to replace Gray, who likely declines his half of the mutual option.   Michael King?  Trevor Rogers? Shota imanaga? Freddy Peralta?  There are at least decent pitching options.

It turns out you can put all your eggs in the Story/Arias basket if you're counting on them to bat 8th or lower.

They could also put Mead at 2b and take the defensive hit, but it's not like there are good DH options in this class.., 

I like Jazz because it allows us to include Durbin in the trade for Elly.

[drewski6]

You got manhandled by a team that got manhandled.  We need more than Jazz to fix one of the worst offenses to ever play for the sox.

[notin]

Just now, drewski6 said:

I like Jazz because it allows us to include Durbin in the trade for Elly.

I don't think Cincy is trading Elly.  And if they are, I imagfine other teams with betteroffers will be stepping up.   Atlanta would jump in fron of us in line for him.  Who was their SS last year?  Anyone remember?

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Well, Semien was only mentioned as an example of a bad contract swap.   Jazz will be a free agent.    And some of us prefer to mention names that are actually available or potentially available when we bring them up.

Wait until I tell you who the next up-and-coming power hitter is going ot be in 2027.   You won't believe me at all...  But is someone the Sox should absolutely target, although not sure his team is interested in moving him ...

I get it that some like to play fantasy island available, or not, or have any chance of happening, or not.

[notin]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

You got manhandled by a team that got manhandled.  We need more than Jazz to fix one of the worst offenses to ever play for the sox.

Regardless of what you think, they're not going to overhaul a team that won 89 and 87 7games in the past 2 years.   They probably only add one bat,, and it isn't going to be De La Cruz,,,

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Regardless of what you think, they're not going to overhaul a team that won 89 and 87 7games in the past 2 years.   They probably only add one bat,, and it isn't going to be De La Cruz,,,

That I agree with.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I get it that some like to play fantasy island available, or not, or have any chance of happening, or not.

Chisholm is defeintely available.   The only question is will the Yankees offer him a QO.  Per MLBTR, their current plan is to only extend one to Bednar.

And you absolutely do like to play Fantasy Island avilable.   That's why you still bring up Alonso and Schwarber, two bandwagons you  didn't jump on until each had already signe elsewhere...

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Regardless of what you think, they're not going to overhaul a team that won 89 and 87 7games in the past 2 years.   They probably only add one bat,, and it isn't going to be De La Cruz,,,

Then its another third place season.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I get it that some like to play fantasy island available, or not, or have any chance of happening, or not.

It's wonderful how the Sox have followed everything you've wanted them to do and are now poised to win 3 straight rings.

The difference is, you speak in vagaries and love to show all the mistakes the Sox make, but rarely give specific suggestions on how to improve the team.

I think you wanted Schwarber and Alonso, then come back after a long break to boast how right you were. I wasn't aware we signed either of them.

How am I wrong for wanting Alonso, and we failed to sign him, but you are right for wanting Alonso, because he had more HRs and RBIs than Willson?

The shifting criteria is tiresome to observe.