A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I never understood this line of talk. When you ask for names of posters who claimed Anthony, Mayer and or KC would be studs in year one, you get no reply.

Sure, many of us had high hopes, but we knew it might take a few years, and that maybe 1 or 2 of the 3 would be letdowns or outright flops. I don't think anyone penciled all 3 in as all stars, particularly year 1 or 2.

I really like Arias a lot. I'm not going to hide my optimism, but I have not seen a single poster say they expect even good offense from him year one or two. Many think he's a plus of defense already, and while that means little to some posters, I love a great defensive SS. (I'm not sure Arias is "great" on D, yet.)

On Arias, there have been a few posters who have seen his MiLB HR numbers and have projected that to Fenway believing he'd be a top of the order bat. That is not the case for 2027! He may never be a power hitter in MLB! He is a contact over power guy. The fact that he's showing any power is a far cry from what evaluators saw previously. 

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I was right with you, and the blast back was "How can we trade away our top 3 offensive weapon, when we need to upgrade offense?!?!?"

I don't have a polite response for that. 

[drewski6]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

My spaghetti had a bad dream... it was a night marinara! 

Why would you just give this gem away?

[NHNative]

PSA: Today is Prince Spaghetti Day

Showing my age.

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Why would you just give this gem away?

Consider that the bread and olive oil that is on the house.

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

There were people who thought that Roman would be in the MVP discussion in 2026! He was one of the "odds on" favorites before the season.

https://www.thebiglead.com/american-league-mvp-odds-before-opening-day-v/

I didn't see any posters making that claim or prediction. Of course, almost all of us expected more than what we saw, but as far as I can remember, nobody was predicting greatness. Many felt the chances were high he could have an excellent season, but that's not how it's worded when people make claims about unreasonable high expectations.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, drewski6 said:

YOu dont let it stop you from putting together a good team.

I'm pretty sure you were full-on on keeping Duran last off-season, and singing Story's praises as recently as the playoffs.  Are you saying that you'd have replaced them last off-season?

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Consider that the bread and olive oil that is on the house.

I think you could have saved that one for the Pawtucket comedy club/restaurant.  I just said its name and dont want to look it up again.  I think its owned by the same people who run the chicago bar downtown Prov. That ones good too.  I got my cats face printed with coffee beans on a Guinness there one time.  

[drewski6]

13 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I'm pretty sure you were full-on on keeping Duran last off-season, and singing Story's praises as recently as the playoffs.  Are you saying that you'd have replaced them last off-season?

Im saying that I dont believe in assigning positions.  So I dont see Story as a SS or Duran as a LF and then consider those positions places that are closed off to players.  I believ in getting 11 good hitters of varying sizes and gloves and sorting out the positions later.  Going into last year, both Duran and Story would have been in my top 11. So would have Alonso and Devers and Bregman (2b)

[drewski6]

I dont let anyone stop me from getting anyone because "position"

[drewski6]

They are all slashes to me

[drewski6]

The Red Sox knew they needed to add more slug after 2025 playoffs and didnt.  Thats the book on the 2026 red sox.  And that doesnt bother me as much as saying okay hear me out: what if we tripled down on pitching , defense, and obp for 2027. Yeah, thats the ticket.

HOnestly, it sounds like a cartoon.  Everyone knew we needed more power , we didnt get enough.  Failure.

[drewski6]

If you can win with Monasterio at SS , then its all just whatever.  Theyve all played every position.  Catchers go to centerfield and are fine.  Thats literally something thats happened.  Our best CF wasnt one until we put him there and he was awesome.  Spoiler alert: hed be very good at ss.  And prob adequate at catcher.

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm pretty sure that I posted that Duran needed to be traded more than anything else TBH. 

I was referring to Drewski's post.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Sure, many of us had high hopes, but we knew it might take a few years,

You know how often I make high roto picks on position rookies?  Never.  Some will become once in an era players, but most rookies are weak in their rookie years.  I'll take a flyer deeper into the drafts, but very few warrant a high pick.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

That is not the case for 2027!

I'd love to see 15 HRs, a .275, and good defense.

[moonslav59]

It's hard to know when to trade a player right before they decline. Suggesting a trade before the player reaches prime is not usually wise, but the Duran case was unique.

Nobody I remember ever tweaked his approach more than Duran. Even when he was doing well, he tweaked and tweaked. I know I was not the only one who wanted him traded, and I've been wrong on many opinions and suggestions, but anyone can check out the BTV site and see I hold the record for suggested Duran trades. It might be the record for anyone suggesting trading any player.

I suggested trading him even after 2024. I'm not trying to pat myself on the back. I don't deserve it. Many of us wanted it done due to his unpredictability, volatility and high number of bonehead plays on defense and baserunning.

Last winter, many were saying we cant trade our top 3 offensive player when we need offense, but Duran was our worst player on offense, when you factor all the PAs into the evaluation. Now, we are thinking of non tendering him vs paying the $10-11M arb or trading him.

Does anyone even want him in a platoon role for 2027? He hit .200 v RHPs (.633 OPS)

I know there is a chance he can revert to his 2025 self, Nobody expects 2024, again, but I'm not getting why we should expect it.

[JoeBrady]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

but the Duran case was unique.

FG projected a 3.8 for Duran.  The biggest issue was the fact that we had 4 outfielders.  But we also had no DH.  There were good baseball reasons for holding onto him.  As it turns out, we lost one of our outfielders for most of the season.  Had Duran performed like he did in 2025, then holding him was the genius move.  He stunk, but predicting him to be this bad is a tough consideration.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

FG projected a 3.8 for Duran.  The biggest issue was the fact that we had 4 outfielders.  But we also had no DH.  There were good baseball reasons for holding onto him.  As it turns out, we lost one of our outfielders for most of the season.  Had Duran performed like he did in 2025, then holding him was the genius move.  He stunk, but predicting him to be this bad is a tough consideration.

We had an $18M DH with a .762 career OPS, plus hopes that Casas might return and Romy as, at worst, a short-side platoon with Casas. (Romy actually batted more vs RHPs than LHPs in 2024 198-143 and hit .718 v R.)

I wasn't predicting Duran was going to be worse. I've always viewed him as a coin toss. I'm not for pinning hopes on coin tosses. His trade value was still pretty high. Word seemed to be that the hold up was that Brez valued him more than every other GM, and not that no GM wanted Duran.

I'm not sure HOU would have given us Paredes for him. I always felt they should have even added to the deal to get Duran, but we may never know if they'd have done a one-for-one. There were other trades mentioned but as usual, never specifics.

As for now, I don't think he's worth his projected $10.8M arb. I'm not sure how many, if any GM would take him at that cost. Every article I read says he will be tendered, but unless we have a trade worked out, I wouldn't do it.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

On Arias, there have been a few posters who have seen his MiLB HR numbers and have projected that to Fenway believing he'd be a top of the order bat. That is not the case for 2027! He may never be a power hitter in MLB! He is a contact over power guy. The fact that he's showing any power is a far cry from what evaluators saw previously. 

True dat. Dalbec hit 33 HRs in one of his last year's in Worcester, and only two more in the majors after that.

But don't orgs that control these prospects owe it to their fanbase to at least see if they can do it in The Show? 

You can't just buy every established star player like they're boys on a shelf, can you Steinbrenner?