Red Sox Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[moonslav59]

BTV Accepts: Story, Duran, Sogard & Valera for J Pena, Paredes, Javier & Imai (all 1 year remaining, except Imai w 2 yrs)

3B: Paredes & Durbin

2B: Mead & Durbin

Sign: Sato to DH

_______________

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Paredes 3B

3, R Sato DH

4. R Contreras 1B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Mead 2B

7. S Rutschman C

8. R Pena SS

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Durbin, Wong, Yoshida/Gasper, Siegler/White/Jones/Monasterio (Arias)

[Hitch]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

So, trading him should be easy.

The return might not be what some think it should be, but with that $11M we can sign someone or use it with more money to get a much better player. There are several good players projected in the $12-15m aav range.

I don't think it'll be overly difficult, but I agree, I don't think we will get much back. 

[Hitch]

20 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

How? He was 7.7M last year. We have zero clue what a 0 WAR guy will get in ARB this season if it gets that far since he's never gone to ARB before. Sox have always extended him prior to ARB negotiations. Maybe they just offer him 8M? 

That's what MLB Trade Rumours and several journos are projecting. I am surprised by the number but I don't think there's much chance at all he signs for $8m.

This just feels like you've always disliked the Raf extension and now refuse to counter any possibility you're wrong and that it was a good deal for us. 

He's a good player, and cheap, and eminently tradeable if we did want to go down that route.

 

[moonslav59]

It's not like Ceddanne is a minus on offense anymore.

GMs pay for GG CF'ers with speed, some power and an OPS north of .725, and he may be projected at .745-.775 in 2027.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

That's what MLB Trade Rumours and several journos are projecting. I am surprised by the number but I don't think there's much chance at all he signs for $8m.

This just feels like you've always disliked the Raf extension and now refuse to counter any possibility you're wrong and that it was a good deal for us. 

He's a good player, and cheap, and eminently tradeable if we did want to go down that route.

 

Wait, I thought the extension was unnecessary back then and still think it was unnecessary now for the same reasons? What gives me the right?!?!?

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's not like Ceddanne is a minus on offense anymore.

GMs pay for GG CF'ers with speed, some power and an OPS north of .725, and he may be projected at .745-.775 in 2027.

We'll see how he looks next year. 

[Old Red]

48 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's not like Ceddanne is a minus on offense anymore.

GMs pay for GG CF'ers with speed, some power and an OPS north of .725, and he may be projected at .745-.775 in 2027.

I never thought he really was a minus on offense. 15 homers, and 70 RBI with a lot of those being big has been good enough for me. Like I said before what the RAF Man does with the bat is not going to make, or certainly not break the Red Sox.

[moonslav59]

If you have to try to convince yourself Ceddanne is not a plus on offense, then I think you are reaching into false narrative territory.

He was 66th in OPS- just ahead of Okamoto, Wm Contreras and KMarte. I know you like wRC+, where he was 69th. That's top half among all qualifying batters (135,) but we all know teams bat 9 slots every game. 9 x 30 teams is a sample size of 270.

Rafaela ranks 100th out of 270 in wRC+.

93rd in OPS (nearly top 1/3.)

Granted, he's 140th in OBP, which is slightly below average, but on a team needing power, his SLG (.444) ranked 77th- just behind Abreu & Paredes and ahead of Neto, Witt & Freeman.

Of course, he seems like a candidate for a decline season, due to his streakiness and swing rates, but as of now, he's a plus on O, a plus on base running and a big plus on defense at a tough position in Fenway Park.

He's earned the money so far and projects to outearn his contract price.

It's okay to be wrong. Admitting it is a sign of strength not weakness.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I never thought he really was a minus on offense. 15 homers, and 70 RBI with a lot of those being big has been good enough for me. Like I said before what the RAF Man does with the bat is not going to make, or certainly not break the Red Sox.

I'm not a believer in "big hits" being a skillset, but so far, his hits seem to come at more meaningful moments than almost any other Sox player in the last 2-3 years.

Men on Base from 2024-2026:  (Overall .714 Rafaela) but .748 w men on base (.763 last 2 years.)

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

If you have to try to convince yourself Ceddanne is not a plus on offense, then I think you are reaching into false narrative territory.

He's entirely dependent on BABIP luck with his poor approach at the plate and weak exit velos. Like I said above, we'll see how he looks next year. 

[Old Red]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's entirely dependent on BABIP luck with his poor approach at the plate and weak exit velos. Like I said above, we'll see how he looks next year. 

He’s been pretty consistent with his stats the last three years, and cut down on his strikeouts from what it was in 2024. He’s probably never going to have a good approach at the plate. I guess it all depends how technical you want to get.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

He’s been pretty consistent with his stats the last three years, and cut down on his strikeouts from what it was in 2024. He’s probably never going to have a good approach at the plate. I guess it all depends how technical you want to get.

He's consistent if you only look at HR and RBI. 

[Old Red]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

He's consistent if you only look at HR and RBI. 

That’s what goes up on the scoreboard. Hitting the ball harder doesn’t. He is what he is, which is a GG CF, and good for 15 HR, and 70 RBI, and most likely nothing more, which is still good enough for me, and the contract.

[mvp 78]

34 minutes ago, Old Red said:

That’s what goes up on the scoreboard. Hitting the ball harder doesn’t. He is what he is, which is a GG CF, and good for 15 HR, and 70 RBI, and most likely nothing more, which is still good enough for me, and the contract.

GGs don't go on the scoreboard either so??? Honestly, hits, runs and errors are the only that thing that goes on a traditional scoreboard, not HRs or RsBI. 

[drewski6]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 

I will add that this is nothing new for JH. He caught grief for the Lester mess, tried to get it back with the Price signing, and the lesson he learned was, he was right to not go large and long for any "window." Despite the ring in 2018, he learned it wasn't worth it. (Maybe he thought we'd have won w/o Price, anyway.)

 

Yup, he really learned his lesson after 2018 and I am so glad.  Because the team and what theyve done from 2019 through 2026 is so much better than what they were doing from 2012-2018......If you love perennially finishing third and not winning a series in the playoffs ever!

If you have lets say a strong team in 2012 and you can make it better for 2013-2018 with an aggressive acquisition, but maybe have to live with an underwater contract in 2019 2020 as the downside, so we use to do it, and then win 2 championships from 2012-2018 but be a little stuck in 2019,2020....So youve decided the appropriate lesson learned was never again.

So now we are so scared to maybe one day have an underwater contract that we prioritize being hyper efficient and never going large and long, and hey, cant have a bad contract if you dont sign anybody, right?

And the results , since weve changed to this JoeBrady/Kimmi model of max efficiency , always avoid a bad contract, how much value and efficiency can you have on your roster, always look out max amount of time has failed. Because its a bad strategy.

A good strategy is tailored to the time.  And sometimes, the strategy is to focus on the short term, and sometimes the strategy is to focus on the long term.  But good thinkers need to adjust and not these "never go large and long" , little cheats like that are to avoid having to think deeply and critically.

All day , every day I see mediocre minds regurgitate cliches. Just parroting what theyve heard.  I knew Farrell was an idiot the first time I heard him talk because he opened his mouth and out came a bunch of vague cliches.  

Smart people and strategists know that everything is case by case and anyone who says things like "always blah, blah , blah" or "never go large and long..." these little shortcuts are deisgned to avoid having to think.

But if we stop and think, we will realize that "lets not sign good players to contracts that could potentially go south because then we wouldnt be able to sign players to contracts , and because all contracts can go south, I know we will never sign players, that way we will never get in our way of signing players!" Brilliant!

And the results speak for themselves.

Consider this: any change we have made since 2018 has been probably bad....Because I give you this....SCOREBOARD!!

There is no hypothetical.  The max efficiency model has flopped.

[Old Red]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

GGs don't go on the scoreboard either so??? Honestly, hits, runs and errors are the only that thing that goes on a traditional scoreboard, not HRs or RsBI. 

No GG don’t go on the scoreboard, but they can take runs away from the other team. I wasn’t really talking about a traditional scoreboard, but that’s OK. A HR is good for at least 1 run as is a RBI. Would it be nice if RAF Man could produce more? Yes it would, but he’s good enough as is IMO.

[mvp 78]

47 minutes ago, Old Red said:

No GG don’t go on the scoreboard, but they can take runs away from the other team. I wasn’t really talking about a traditional scoreboard, but that’s OK. A HR is good for at least 1 run as is a RBI. Would it be nice if RAF Man could produce more? Yes it would, but he’s good enough as is IMO.

He is good enough as is. I agree. They didn't need to extend him though. 

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

He is good enough as is. I agree. They didn't need to extend him though. 

We agree on both.👍

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If the Red Sox don't add more MLB bats this offseason, they should at least reshuffle the batting order to reflect the deep analysis of talksox -- and what we all value above all else in offensive stats!

Mead leadoff -- his .353 OB% was higher than any Boston fulltimer but Contreras. Plus, Curtis could provide instant longball, like Schwarber or Ohtani at the top (Mead wasn't predicted to hit homers last year, but he actually did).

Rafaela can stay at #2. Lousy OB% and a hacker with the worst challenge% in the bigs, but a Top Ten Batting Average... that's actual HITS divided by ABs. Ceddanne was leading baseball in doubles before he missed the last month; that'll move the runner.

Anthony #3. Hard contact, big contract -- he's a future staaah! what more do you want from your third batter? How bout: potential on-base machine ahead of your top sluggers.

Contreras Clean-up. The big bopper who was AL's second-best in the sacred OPS... and actually second in ON BASE %, which is why the #5 guy should be...

Abreu -- who actually did lead the league in doubles and was fifth in extra base-hits behind only Yordan, Junior, Rice and Polar Bear (good company). That's exactly the kind of SLUGGER you want batting directly after one of the best On Base men in the business.

OH PEE YESSS!!!

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He's entirely dependent on BABIP luck with his poor approach at the plate and weak exit velos. Like I said above, we'll see how he looks next year. 

He improved from '24 to '25 despite 23 point drop in BABIP.

I don't think BABIP = luck factor, unless you see corresponding LD% and Hard Hit% numbers.

LD%: 17.2>22.8 from '25-'26 (Not a surprise more balls hit fell for hits)

Hard% dipped slightly (by 0.8%) but his Med% went way up (4.6%) while his soft% tumbled from 18% to 15.2%

His wOBA went .307>.332.

I have mentioned I view him as a player that could easily slide back, next season, so yes, let's see, but for now he is a plus batter.

 

I've seen you use smaller recent samples to make judgements on other players. I'm impressed with the constant improvement:

wRC+ 76>82>93>110

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He's consistent if you only look at HR and RBI. 

 

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He's consistent if you only look at HR and RBI. 

BA, SLG and wRC+ has gone up every year.

OBP, OPS & wOBA has gone up two straight seasons

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

 

BA, SLG and wRC+ has gone up every year.

OBP, OPS & wOBA has gone up two straight seasons

His BA went from 241 to 246 to 249 that's less "going up every year" and more "consistent for 3 years." 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Yup, he really learned his lesson after 2018 and I am so glad.  Because the team and what theyve done from 2019 through 2026 is so much better than what they were doing from 2012-2018......If you love perennially finishing third and not winning a series in the playoffs ever!

If you have lets say a strong team in 2012 and you can make it better for 2013-2018 with an aggressive acquisition, but maybe have to live with an underwater contract in 2019 2020 as the downside, so we use to do it, and then win 2 championships from 2012-2018 but be a little stuck in 2019,2020....So youve decided the appropriate lesson learned was never again.

So now we are so scared to maybe one day have an underwater contract that we prioritize being hyper efficient and never going large and long, and hey, cant have a bad contract if you dont sign anybody, right?

And the results , since weve changed to this JoeBrady/Kimmi model of max efficiency , always avoid a bad contract, how much value and efficiency can you have on your roster, always look out max amount of time has failed. Because its a bad strategy.

A good strategy is tailored to the time.  And sometimes, the strategy is to focus on the short term, and sometimes the strategy is to focus on the long term.  But good thinkers need to adjust and not these "never go large and long" , little cheats like that are to avoid having to think deeply and critically.

All day , every day I see mediocre minds regurgitate cliches. Just parroting what theyve heard.  I knew Farrell was an idiot the first time I heard him talk because he opened his mouth and out came a bunch of vague cliches.  

Smart people and strategists know that everything is case by case and anyone who says things like "always blah, blah , blah" or "never go large and long..." these little shortcuts are deisgned to avoid having to think.

But if we stop and think, we will realize that "lets not sign good players to contracts that could potentially go south because then we wouldnt be able to sign players to contracts , and because all contracts can go south, I know we will never sign players, that way we will never get in our way of signing players!" Brilliant!

And the results speak for themselves.

Consider this: any change we have made since 2018 has been probably bad....Because I give you this....SCOREBOARD!!

There is no hypothetical.  The max efficiency model has flopped.

I've agreed with you on the JH strategy being wrong, but when I say it is what it is, it's not me accepting it as okay- it's me accepting it as it is what it is.

JH isn't going anywhere, so what's the best step to take to mitigate losing our best players, knowing an option is not to "just re-sign them?"

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

His BA went from 241 to 246 to 249 that's less "going up every year" and more "consistent for 3 years." 

Yes, I answer your point about his only consistent thing is HR and RBIs with BA.

I also see a slow and constant growth as consistently improving.

[mvp 78]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've agreed with you on the JH strategy being wrong, but when I say it is what it is, it's not me accepting it as okay- it's me accepting it as it is what it is.

JH isn't going anywhere, so what's the best step to take to mitigate losing our best players, knowing an option is not to "just re-sign them?"

It's your fault JH isn't signing players because you root for his checkbook on the TalkSox.com forums where JH goes to get all his financial advice! 

[mvp 78]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, I answer your point about his only consistent thing is HR and RBIs with BA.

I also see a slow and constant growth as consistently improving.

Well, maybe you'll see slow and constant growth out of my posting someday as well. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

BABIP isn't all luck.

Batters with the fastest exit velo and hard-hit rate shoot liners in between or over fielders before they can catch them -- that's not luck.

But here's the real question: is batting average when making soft contact just luck?

These are professional hitters with the best hand-eye coordination in their world. A two-strike approach where batters choke up and shorten their swings to put the ball in play is taught and stressed since Little League.

And if a guy who's down in the count intentionally punches one through the hole the other way for a base hit, that's skill. A lot of hitters take mighty cuts at the first two strikes before swinging with more control.

A lot of hitters at a lot of levels...

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

It's your fault JH isn't signing players because you root for his checkbook on the TalkSox.com forums where JH goes to get all his financial advice! 

You've been wrong a lot lately and this one is a doozy.

I choose not to live in the La-La Land of thinking something will happen, because it can if some stubborn old man chooses to change his ways.

Reality sucks sometimes. Accepting that fact is not saying you like it.

[notin]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If the Red Sox don't add more MLB bats this offseason, they should at least reshuffle the batting order to reflect the deep analysis of talksox -- and what we all value above all else in offensive stats!

Mead leadoff -- his .353 OB% was higher than any Boston fulltimer but Contreras. Plus, Curtis could provide instant longball, like Schwarber or Ohtani at the top (Mead wasn't predicted to hit homers last year, but he actually did).

Rafaela can stay at #2. Lousy OB% and a hacker with the worst challenge% in the bigs, but a Top Ten Batting Average... that's actual HITS divided by ABs. Ceddanne was leading baseball in doubles before he missed the last month; that'll move the runner.

Anthony #3. Hard contact, big contract -- he's a future staaah! what more do you want from your third batter? How bout: potential on-base machine ahead of your top sluggers.

Contreras Clean-up. The big bopper who was AL's second-best in the sacred OPS... and actually second in ON BASE %, which is why the #5 guy should be...

Abreu -- who actually did lead the league in doubles and was fifth in extra base-hits behind only Yordan, Junior, Rice and Polar Bear (good company). That's exactly the kind of SLUGGER you want batting directly after one of the best On Base men in the business.

OH PEE YESSS!!!

Mead at leadoff?

Not going to poo poo that.  Especially against LHP…

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, notin said:

Mead at leadoff?

Not going to poo poo that.  Especially against LHP…

I think Anthony might project to a higher OBP and has less power, so maybe...

1. Anthony

2. Mead

I'd love to have de la Cruz or Abram up 3rd, Contreras 4th