Red Sox Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

But thats asking a lot for the offense.  Mead was quickly turning into a bust before his turnaround, and I dont think we an count on Anthony to be a super productive top 4 hitter.  To me , we can assume that together one will be good enough to hit top 4, then Contreras.  But I would like to go Abreu(5th). Adley(6th), Arias/Story (7th),Cedanne (8th), Durbin (9th).

I think that a team of Roman, Mead, Abreu, Contreras, Adley, Story, Cedanne, Durbin, Arias is third or fourth and doesnt get further than we've gotten.

Its easier to take the step from bottom dweller to .500, and then from .500 to playoff team then playoff team to elite team....That last jump is the hardest and it requires us to look at improvement opportunities earnestly and be willing to make tough decisions.  Read: guys we like will get squeezed out of playing time or potentially off the team entirely.

The challenge is that we are stuck at make the playoffs but not be a real threat to run through them, and its frankly hard to take that next jump.

Didn’t the RAF Man do pretty good in the 2 hole this past year?

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Didn’t the RAF Man do pretty good in the 2 hole this past year?

735 OPS, 301 OBP hitting 2nd. 

I'd rather someone else hit up there. 

[drewski6]

19 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Didn’t the RAF Man do pretty good in the 2 hole this past year?

I dont believe in that.  I dont believe in lineup construction or position.

I believe in having 5 very good hitters, and 5 decent hitters behind them, all of whom are positionally versatile and we strive to play the best bats without being awful on defense.

The order in which you bat the guys (other than the elite 5 should hit before the avg 5) and what position they play does not concern me.  Nor does OBP vs SLG.  I believe in hunting your pitch, and swinging at it with intent and violence when you get it.  Not trying to get a couple of walk guys who play 2b optimally hitting in front of a couple of low cost slg guys who we got on the cheap because they are aging or flawed.

[drewski6]

I do like Cedanne though becaues he swings the bat and I wouldnt rule out him becoming even better next year. BUt as is, I think your best hitters should hit 1-3 and I dont think hes a top 3 on the team bat on a team that wants to win it all.

Like I said, my bar is high because we have been stuck on the cusp of competitiveness, and you have to get uncomfortable to make that leap.  I want an embarrassment of riches.  Not to be told I need to be happy with a team that barely hit 4 months out of the 6 including when it counted the most;.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/27/2026 at 12:39 PM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

And I don't care, because I don't know if I will be here in 2029 or 2030 -- or if those years will even be.

I'm not dismissing your concern, but with the acknowledgement that nothing in life is guaranteed, I'm hoping for another 15 years of rooting for the RS.  And i have no philosophical objection to adding l/t term contracts.  But I'd prefer to slightly overpay for guys like Harper, who was 26 when he started with the Phillies.  You have a good chance of getting 7-8 good years before the inevitable decline.

Turner had one excellent seasons with Philly, two good seasons, and one bad season, and has 7 years left, with the likelihood that he won't be there the final 3 seasons.

Schwarber led the league in HRs, which is great, but he also had a .750 in his final three months.  I don't think anyone wants that contract*.

I'm not sure if Realmuto might be finished.  I don't want the RS to follow that path.

*  The * on Schwarber is that I'm guessing that DD knows his back is against the wall.  Schwarber is popular in Philly, but his $132M/4 remaining looks like a pretty bad contract.  Yoshi + Story for Schwarber?

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I dont believe in that.  I dont believe in lineup construction or position.

I believe in having 5 very good hitters, and 5 decent hitters behind them, all of whom are positionally versatile and we strive to play the best bats without being awful on defense.

I agree, the key to the Sox winning it all is sneaking in a 10th hitter into the order next season. 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

It’s not hate on little A himself, but all the hype, and yes I witnessed it first hand in Portland, and all the expectations placed on him by the TEAM, Media, and FANS, which some fans had a problem with. little A is far from innocent in all of this either as he most likely bought into all this praise himself, before he earned it in a Red Sox uniform. 

I mean, any guy who ends up being a top 5 prospect in all of baseball is going to be hyped anywhere. 

Also, he's 22 and hasn't been healthy to really proove or disprove himself yet. 

I think he deserves another year before we start ragging on him. 

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I mean, any guy who ends up being a top 5 prospect in all of baseball is going to be hyped anywhere. 

Also, he's 22 and hasn't been healthy to really proove or disprove himself yet. 

I think he deserves another year before we start ragging on him. 

I’m not saying you’re wrong, or disagreeing with you, but that’s not the way it works in Boston.

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

I’m not saying you’re wrong, or disagreeing with you, but that’s not the way it works in Boston.

Be the change you want to see in the world Red. 

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Be the change you want to see in the world Red. 

I guess i watch, and listen to way too many sports talk shows, and have for many, many years now not to mention message  boards, and forums.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/27/2026 at 2:47 PM, mvp 78 said:

Everyone on here who assumes no backsliding. 

"They had X runs in '25 and only lost Bregman who was replaced by Contreras. Should have been fine!"

In a nutshell, yes.  You basically take last year's stats, increase or lower it based on anticipated reversions, and add and subtract based on who you are adding and who you are losing.  If no one get hurts and no one has negative reversion, you'll have a very good season.  If you have a lot of negative regression, and a lot of injuries, you'll have a very bad season.  There really aren't a lot of ways around that.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/27/2026 at 4:10 PM, moonslav59 said:

It's facts not excuses.

One of my pet peeves in life is that people don't understand the difference between facts and excuses.  If a meteor hits your Ferrari, that doesn't make the Ferrari a bad car.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/27/2026 at 4:44 PM, JimEd said:

according to this, the Phillies are at 10 and just younger than the Red Sox. surprising to me was Tampa having the oldest.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rosters/_/sort/average_age/order/true

Age needs to be a weighted category.  Age counts more for hitters than pitchers.  And all you need is a few 37 year old #6-7-8 guys in the BP to skew your overall age, but not your overall talent level.  The fact that Philly's big-4 hitters will all be 34 or older, strikes me as a problem.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

I know you think you’re protecting little A’s image, but you’re really just doing the opposite. Have a good day.👋

More mind constructs.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Age needs to be a weighted category.  Age counts more for hitters than pitchers.  And all you need is a few 37 year old #6-7-8 guys in the BP to skew your overall age, but not your overall talent level.  The fact that Philly's big-4 hitters will all be 34 or older, strikes me as a problem.

Great point, and while T Guererro was 35, he's the types we can add, hoping 1-2 work out.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/27/2026 at 7:24 PM, moonslav59 said:

I agree, but 7th might have got us farther in 2026.

Trigger warning-stats being used 

#7 in scoring would've given us 96 Py wins, good for 2nd in the AL, 4th overall, and the HFA against the NYY.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/27/2026 at 11:28 PM, jdc69 said:

Thats true. I forgot we put all our hopes on Casas. 😆 

Good point, except for the fact that Contreras was a 1B.  But please do continue.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/28/2026 at 8:42 AM, mvp 78 said:

Contreras didn't have a lot of RBI this season because the 1 and 2 hitters for the Sox stunk and couldn't get on base. 

How many times do I have to tell you not to use facts with Red.  I believe it is actually in the ToS.

Seriously, how is it even possible that someone doesn't understand that having far less runners on base leads to far less RBI opportunities?

[JoeBrady]

On 10/28/2026 at 8:41 AM, mvp 78 said:

Alonso isn't great at 1b, but he's better than Casas was and not many people were ringing the bell about getting him off 1b. 

That was always going to be a problem since we had Yoshida at DH.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/28/2026 at 8:53 AM, Hugh2 said:

Oh is that who the "con-man" is? I'm sorry I haven't really cared enough to keep up with all these personal nick names.  I thought we were comparing him to Contreras. 

This is why I have Red on 'ignore'.  It ruins the flow of conversation when someone insists on using their own set of nicknames.  Nothing personal against Red.

[notin]

12 hours ago, jdc69 said:

Thats nice. Maybe he can get the golden "almost highest OBP" award. 339 is nothing to brag about if hes supposed to be an all star. That his average and power numbers aren't that high could point to the load he was asked to carry straight from minor leagues. These players aren't robots. Pressure is real.

What exactly is this based on?  What load did the team ask him to carry?

Breslow did refer to him as a cornerstone, but it’s not like he tied that to the production fans are associating with it.  Kennedy emphasized locking up homegrown talent, but more so because of players like Betts they were unable to lock up.  None of this hints at any “load” the team asked him to carry.

Now many media outlets have written their own stories about Anthony and expectations. But the Sox aren’t accountable for that stuff.

And pressure is so subjective.  How badly is Anthony really affected by it?  Some players are; some are not.  There is no sweeping generalization that it’s always negative…

 

 

[notin]

34 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

One of my pet peeves in life is that people don't understand the difference between facts and excuses.  If a meteor hits your Ferrari, that doesn't make the Ferrari a bad car.

Ferraris are well documented meteor magnets…

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

How many times do I have to tell you not to use facts with Red.  I believe it is actually in the ToS.

Seriously, how is it even possible that someone doesn't understand that having far less runners on base leads to far less RBI opportunities?

You can bring up all the facts you want, but you can’t change the numbers that were now in the record books for 2026. NO one is disputing any opportunities, or anything else. I guess Alonso is just luckier throughout his, and the Con Man’s career that he has more RBI in MlB the past 5 years, and 4th in Homers, and the Con Man is way down the list.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/28/2026 at 9:17 AM, NHNative said:

I am confused or something else. How could any fan say RBIs aren't important and desired?

They're important, but I think simply implying someone is a better hitter, because he has more PAs with men on base, is pretty misleading.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/28/2026 at 9:18 AM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

C-2B-SS-LF core are better than the Red Sox' where it counts...

I don't think that anyone disagrees that C-2B-SS-LF were our worst offensive positions last year.  I post on that fairly frequently.

[notin]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

They're important, but I think simply implying someone is a better hitter, because he has more PAs with men on base, is pretty misleading.

And that was the case with Alonso vs Contreras.  

Alonso did hit more home runs, which accounts for a chunk of his RBI total Ober Contreras.  16 out of the 32.

Beyond that? Alonso came up with more men on base.  Both hitters drove is just over 16% of all the baserunners.  Now as I have said before, Alonso has been remarkably durable in his career, so this certainly lead to many of the 100 more baserunners he came up with.  But there were other factors, like Taylor Ward’s sudden ability to get on base at an ungodly rate. The Sox didn’t have an equivalent.400 OBP guy to hit in from of Contreras…
 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

How many times do I have to tell you not to use facts with Red.  I believe it is actually in the ToS.

Seriously, how is it even possible that someone doesn't understand that having far less runners on base leads to far less RBI opportunities?

Worse is that he views stating these facts is making excuses.

Willson needs no excuses. He had a great season and was our top producer despite having the one slot with .307 OBP and the all-important 2 slot even worse at .303. When you factor in that 40 of the 1-2 slot 317 hits were HR's, that doesn't leave many guys on base ready to be knocked in.

Pitchers pitched around both Alonso and Contreras with men on base: I'm not sure which one saw more of this, but Willson had...

32 BBs in 243 PAs with men on base

27 BBs in 292 PAs with no men on base.

Alonso

34 BBs in 322 PAs with men on base.

47 BBs in 378 PAs with no men on base.

Red will call this "changing the numbers," when it is actually just presenting other numbers that give context.

I still wish we had gotten Alonso, but not because he had a lower RBI per man on base than Willson.

[notin]

9 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

They're important, but I think simply implying someone is a better hitter, because he has more PAs with men on base, is pretty misleading.

Agreed.

I think RBIs are weak for player evaluation.  But useful for MVP awards, ROY awards, and maybe even HOF candidacy.  They’re fine for looking at what a player did, but almost useless for determining what a player can/will do…

[JoeBrady]

On 10/28/2026 at 9:41 AM, Hugh2 said:

I just don't think this narrative that Contreras has to be "poo poo'd" because he was traded for and Alonso wasn't signed. 

Nothing was going to save us.

Alonso 4.9 bWAR v Contreras 4.6

Bregman's 5.8 v Durbin's 4.4

Schwarber's 2.6 v the Yoshida+Gasper 1.9

Even if we ignored the money, that's an additional 2.4 more wins.  If you take the more logical approach, and assume that the extra cost of $70M+, would cost us the services of Gray + Suarez, then I think there is very little doubt that we'd be worse off.  Both now, and far worse off in 3-4-5 years from now.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

They're important, but I think simply implying someone is a better hitter, because he has more PAs with men on base, is pretty misleading.

The actual numbers a player  puts out no matter how they did it is what counts the most. That’s what goes up on the scoreboard in real time. The amount of games played, opportunities, what park you play in, and everything else goes into those numbers, but you can’t change those numbers as much as you might want to. It’s not even a question of who’s better, but who puts up the best numbers no matter the reason. Alonso hit 16 more homers than Con Man. He played in 30 more games. I’ll take the 16 more homes, and the 32 more RBI any day no matter how they were accomplished.