Red Sox Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

$96M/5?

I'm good with that.  My comp for him is Realmuto.  JT signed for $115.5M/5 for ages 30-34.  His production was 5.2 bWAR/162 for his three previous seasons.  AR age range would be the same.  His bWAR/162 is 3.7/162.  So he is not as good, but inflation probably makes JT's contract look more like $140M/5.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I do think the AR trade was a major overpay. How necessary it was is also questionable, but a .550 Narvaez needed a major upgrade.

You seem to really be down on Brez trades. Can you give me your grade on these trades- knowing some have large elements of TBD in them?

Devers for Harrison, Hicks, Tibbs and Jose Bello

Crochet for Meidroth, Montgomery, Teel and Wikelman

Gray & Cash for Clarke & Fitts

Contreras & Cash for Dobbins, Fajardo & Aita

Bennett for Perales

Rutschman, Rogers and cash for Eyanson, Witherspoon & Azocar

Durbin, Seigler & Monasterio for Harrison, Drohan & DHam

Mead for Early

Miller & Gutierrez for Mayer

Oviedo, Samaniego & A Guzman for Jh Garcia & Travieso

Sale & Cash for Grissom

Fitts, Weissert & Judice for Verdugo

O'Neill for Robertson & Santos

Priester for Yorke

Slaten for Ammons

________________

Minor deals:

Narvaez for Elmer Rodriguez 

Sandlin for Schreiber

Ziehl for Sandlin & Hicks 

E White for Uberstine

J Jones for Ingrassia

Baez, Watson. I Jackson, Ro Hernandez, B Ward, L Heyman for T Gray, Reimer, Grissom, L Guerrero, Murphy, Bernardino, Hoppe

Matz & DMay for Blaze Jordan, Tibbs and Ehrhard

Moran for Gasper (got Gasper back for nothing)

Booser. Vogatsky for Fajardo, E Valdez

Danny Jansen, Paxton, Lucas Sims & Luis Garcia for Kavadas, Zeferjahn, Lugo, Vargas, Paulino, Coffey, Batista, Bolivar & Portes

I Campbell for Urias

Many of these Breslow trades are too early to tell, but the AR trade was terrible. Strictly a panic trade by Breslow. AR's best days are behind him. The O's FO is still smiling over that one.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Just now, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Many of these Breslow trades are too early to tell, but the AR trade was terrible. Strictly a panic trade by Breslow. AR's best days are behind him. The O's are still smiling over that one.

Breslow has job security because a better CBO wouldn't want that job in Boston.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Off topic:

Watching the Brewers/Dodgers series and thinking how great it would be if Ohtani finished his contract the same way Chris Davis did with the O's.

Just wishful thinking.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Many of these Breslow trades are too early to tell, but the AR trade was terrible. Strictly a panic trade by Breslow. AR's best days are behind him. The O's FO is still smiling over that one.

Many catchers have their best seasons from age 28-32. It remains to be seen how good Eyanson, Witherspoon & Azocar will do. I remember thinking many of those prospects DD traded away were going to be really good, and basically none did.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Breslow has job security because a better CBO wouldn't want that job in Boston.

Funny.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

On 10/13/2026 at 3:39 PM, JoeBrady said:

I know you guys love nicknames, but what does that one mean?

I'm guessing it means the trade for AR.

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe they got lucky not doing that.

Maybe, but if we're writing off players after one bad year, may as well sell half this team. 

[Hugh2]

On 10/13/2026 at 3:11 PM, JoeBrady said:

He got hit by a pitch in his first game.  You really should've known that.

I like hitters who don't get hit with 96 MPH fastballs.  How dare he. 

[NHNative]

13 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I like hitters who don't get hit with 96 MPH fastballs.  How dare he. 

He shoulda ducked.

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Maybe, but if we're writing off players after one bad year, may as well sell half this team. 

Well said. I'd take Gunner in an instant.

The O's are not known for making good calls in their F.O.

[notin]

10 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I'm guessing it means the trade for AR.

It means he overpays despite being too cheap to pay, I guess…

[Old Red]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Funny.

I don’t know if it’s funny. There was a lot of ridicule on the likes of ESPN, and MLB networks, and not even mentioning the Boston fans, and contingent when so many candidates wouldn’t even interview for the job. #12 didn’t just pop up out of thin air. IMO Theo has had a hand in Brez getting the power to fire Cora, and keeping that power.

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

Nobody can say Brez is not bold with trades, willing to trade top prospects, trade for players making a lot of money or willing to trade top players.

He's the opposite of Bloom on all this, and then add the willingness to make in-season/deadline deals.

Nobody can convince me Brez had the ability to spend way more than he has to date. It's JH & Co. that set the seasonal player payroll budgets with maybe a little wiggle room and the need for approval for anything significantly beyond the wiggle room allowed.

The trading of Devers and the by-far largest contract ever given to a Sox player pre-undid much of what we spent afterwards, but some norms (some just Bloom norms) were broken:

1. No past Sox GM (for good or bad) extended so many prospects as Brez: $130/8 Anthony + option, $60M/8 KC + 2 options (better he than Mayer, IMO,) $55M/6 Bello + option & $50M/8 Rafaela (now looks pretty damn good.)

2. Highest AAV ever given to a Sox player: Bregman for 2025.

3. $300M given to two pitchers with contracts starting in the same year (Crochet ext $170M '26-'31 & Suarez $130M '26-'30 w option.)

4. Most money ever paid to a single RP'er. (Chapman: $36.75M/3)

Breaking the Bloom trends:

1. Making major summer deals just about every year.

2. Signing 3 pitchers to double the AAV Bloom ever signed; Crochet, Suarez and Buehler.

3. Daring to trade top prospects. I think Bloom's highest was Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber.

Like it or not, this is kinda eye-opening change.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

I don’t know if it’s funny. 

True. It goes way beyond comedy.

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I've been super high on acquired players before and been let down, and I know you don't value his last half season of his career like you seem to value & devalue other shorter samples, but I think this guy will turn heads, and I mean as they watch dingers fly out everywhere.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've been super high on acquired players before and been let down, and I know you don't value his last half season of his career like you seem to value & devalue other shorter samples, but I think this guy will turn heads, and I mean as they watch dingers fly out everywhere.

I just want to see it again. 

I also wasn't an avid Nats watcher this year! 

[Hugh2]

5 hours ago, NHNative said:

He shoulda ducked.

He should of been wearing a suit of armor with force field around him. 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

He should of been wearing a suit of armor with force field around him. 

He was hit in his wrist while wearing a ton of crap on his left arm. Maybe if he had less on, he gets his hands out of the way? 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I just want to see it again. 

I also wasn't an avid Nats watcher this year! 

He's not a lock. I just wonder why you seem to hold a player's recent half season against them, when they do poorly.

I realize his history beforehand is way out of whack with his first half of 2026, and that might be different from other examples you have cited half season or less sample sizes to make judgements.

Maybe I'm super high on him because we basically need him to be a near .850 guy for 2027- all of the season. I guess Anthony could give us that. Maybe a bust out year by Abreu could approach that. I don't see AR getting back up near that number again. I don't even think Duran can get to .750, so I'm not going down that rabbit hole. Story's last big year was .740. Yoshida- .770'ish. I've been talking Casas more than anyone else, because he has a better shot than AR, Duran, Story and Yoshida combined at nearing .850 in 2027.

There are just too many questions, and that's why I want DLC, Abrams, Sato or Suzuki.

[NHNative]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He's not a lock. I just wonder why you seem to hold a player's recent half season against them, when they do poorly.

I realize his history beforehand is way out of whack with his first half of 2026, and that might be different from other examples you have cited half season or less sample sizes to make judgements.

Maybe I'm super high on him because we basically need him to be a near .850 guy for 2027- all of the season. I guess Anthony could give us that. Maybe a bust out year by Abreu could approach that. I don't see AR getting back up near that number again. I don't even think Duran can get to .750, so I'm not going down that rabbit hole. Story's last big year was .740. Yoshida- .770'ish. I've been talking Casas more than anyone else, because he has a better shot than AR, Duran, Story and Yoshida combined at nearing .850 in 2027.

There are just too many questions, and that's why I want DLC, Abrams, Sato or Suzuki.

I think most of us agree--its just how to get there. Its gonna be a crazy winter/spring.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, NHNative said:

I think most of us agree--its just how to get there. Its gonna be a crazy winter/spring.

It may not be. 

I'm thinking Brez might believe the Mead and AR additions plus a full year from Anthony is enough. It's not without logic. It's not unreasonable to expect 1500-1800 total PAs from those three combined and OPS between .750-.775 for ARand .825-.850 for Mead and Anthony. In theory, that should be "just enough."

Another expectation could be that many of the pre-prime and prime players who declined last year bounce back and by more than anyone else decline.

While the focus has been on offense, and rightfully so, we can't neglect pitching and defense: 

The loss of Gray might be partially offset by addition by subtraction of Sandoval and others, but more likely by returns by Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo and maybe better pen health.

We have three GG finalists and look better at Catcher than 2026. 2B and SS are dependent on who plays there. 1B and LF should be about teh same.

[NHNative]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It may not be. 

I'm thinking Brez might believe the Mead and AR additions plus a full year from Anthony is enough. It's not without logic. It's not unreasonable to expect 1500-1800 total PAs from those three combined and OPS between .750-.775 for ARand .825-.850 for Mead and Anthony. In theory, that should be "just enough."

Another expectation could be that many of the pre-prime and prime players who declined last year bounce back and by more than anyone else decline.

While the focus has been on offense, and rightfully so, we can't neglect pitching and defense: 

The loss of Gray might be partially offset by addition by subtraction of Sandoval and others, but more likely by returns by Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo and maybe better pen health.

We have three GG finalists and look better at Catcher than 2026. 2B and SS are dependent on who plays there. 1B and LF should be about teh same.

Could be--I like the optimism + I think a full season of Rut may be happy dance time and Tolle has just gotten started, IMO.

Our D is solid.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I realize his history beforehand is way out of whack with his first half of 2026,

Maybe, maybe not.  Based on his minor league numbers, I don't think 25 HRs with a .275-.285 is unreasonable.

[Donnie Sadler was short]

21 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Many of these Breslow trades are too early to tell, but the AR trade was terrible. Strictly a panic trade by Breslow. AR's best days are behind him. The O's FO is still smiling over that one.

no $hit..I mean I think they (the O's) still wouldve traded him if we kept just 1 of our top 10 prospects...major overpay.

[Donnie Sadler was short]

21 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Off topic:

Watching the Brewers/Dodgers series and thinking how great it would be if Ohtani finished his contract the same way Chris Davis did with the O's.

Just wishful thinking.

love this!

[NHNative]

14 minutes ago, Donnie Sadler was short said:

love this!

He is struggling.

[Tedballgame]

Brezlow has made some very good trades and a few not so good trades. I still like the Adley trade. He is a solid catcher who will hit in Fenway. The prospects the Sox traded haven't done anything yet. Even the guys traded for Crochet, the best has been Meidroth and he was a fringe prospect that nobody cared about when he was traded. Teel has been injured most of his career and has hit in the low .200's as has Braden Montgomery. Winkleman is no longer with the White Sox.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

The loss of Gray might be partially offset by addition by subtraction of Sandoval and others, but more likely by returns by Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo and maybe better pen health.

We're likely to be short on the rotation.  Just my personal risk assessment:

• Crochet  20%
• Tolle  15%
• Suarez  20%
• Bennett 35%
• Bello 35%

We need another SP.