Duran

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

2 hours ago, notin said:

I think the issue wuth Casas will be that he might get $3-4mill in arbitration and take up a valuable 40 man roster spot.

He probably gets non-tendered and the Sox try to re-sign him to a minor league deal.  He might accept it, too, since it’s pretty unlikely anyone signs him to a major league deal…

The only major league team that would offer Casas a deal is a team that wants to give it's medical team someone to practice on.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Romy and Casas are both legitimate non-tender candidates…

And both could hold very important roles on the 2027 team, if healthy.

I'm not ready to write off a career .800 hitter with 30 Hrs per 650 (Casas) nor a top 13 batter vs LHPs since 2024 (Romy.)

BTW, it would not shock me, if we can't sign Duran before arb, we non tender him.

[moonslav59]

Just now, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

The only major league team that would offer Casas a deal is a team that wants to give it's medical team someone to practice on.

Casas still has options left, so IMO several teams could and would park him on their 40, including the Sox. He just kept him all 2026- knowing we was toast..

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, vegasbob said:

Casas might need a need a new roster exemp category called the MUP list. Mentally unable to perform

His injuries have been legit, but hurting yourself running to 1B or just swinging a bat makes one wonder....

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

The only major league team that would offer Casas a deal is a team that wants to give it's medical team someone to practice on.

[JoeBrady]

On 9/27/2026 at 12:46 AM, moonslav59 said:

He is not a capable starter. He's far from "very" capable. He's a 0.5 WAR player.

This year.  But Duran had a 4.9 bWAR/162 prior to this season.  FG projected him for a 3.8 in 2026.  Aroz was projected to be 2.4.  While it could be that Duran is washed up at age 30, and Aroz will continue to blossom at age 32, my abacus suggests otherwise.

[JoeBrady]

18 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

The only major league team that would offer Casas a deal is a team that wants to give it's medical team someone to practice on.

Every bad team in BB will line up to sign him.  Some might even gamble on giving him a spot on the 26.

[NHNative]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

His injuries have been legit, but hurting yourself running to 1B or just swinging a bat makes one wonder....

It happens. Like Mick's bicep.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

This year.  But Duran had a 4.9 bWAR/162 prior to this season.  FG projected him for a 3.8 in 2026.  Aroz was projected to be 2.4.  While it could be that Duran is washed up at age 30, and Aroz will continue to blossom at age 32, my abacus suggests otherwise.

Unlike many here, I'm not all about recency. I do think Duran can do better than +0.5, but I think the  3.8 projection is irrelevant, now. Even if I was sure he could give us a 1.0 to 1.5 in 2027, it's not worth the $8-9M arb. Can he give 2, or 3 or even 3.8? Probably/Maybe/Doubtful.

I'm not for Aroz., but if we shed a few LF/DH types, maybe...

At the same price, I'd take Aroz for a year. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Every bad team in BB will line up to sign him.  Some might even gamble on giving him a spot on the 26.

With options remaining, some good teams would find room, too. He only needs to be on a 40 not 26.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

At the same price, I'd take Aroz for a year. 

From my interpretation of MLB-R, Aroz might be $66M/3+.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

From my interpretation of MLB-R, Aroz might be $66M/3+.

I would not give him $45M/3, but someone will give more.

I would not give Duran $7-8M, and he might get $9M, if it goes to ARB.

I doubt we trade Yoshida, so we'd have him, White, Jones, Campbell and some AAA OF'ers as depth. (We might even try Mead in LF or see Gonzales jump the progression timeline.

If the budget was not an issue, I'd be fine bring JD back, but with Yoshida and Story still on the books, and both maybe best used as DHs, I'm not seeing the $7-9M value as a high need.

[notin]

23 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Casas still has options left, so IMO several teams could and would park him on their 40, including the Sox. He just kept him all 2026- knowing we was toast..

There is a difference between writing a player off and ensuring his salary and roster spot.

Casas has 3 options left, which does all but guarantee someone gives him a chance.  But for arbitration money along with a 40 man roster spot?  I have my doubts, especially with Boston.

Assuming Boston does non-tender him, they still might try to re-sign him to a minor league deal.  Im hesitant to think many teams make him an offer for a major league contract, although I suppose some team like Miami might offer minimum wage and start him out in AAA, assuming he doesn’t dislocate his shoulder putting pen to paper…

[Donnie Sadler was short]

On 9/27/2026 at 3:23 PM, notin said:

Romy and Casas are both legitimate non-tender candidates…

I'm all for giving Casas one more chance with arbitration.  Not sure how it works but would an arbitrator REALLY think he deserves a bump from 1.5 to 3-4 mill?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

There is a difference between writing a player off and ensuring his salary and roster spot.

Casas has 3 options left, which does all but guarantee someone gives him a chance.  But for arbitration money along with a 40 man roster spot?  I have my doubts, especially with Boston.

Assuming Boston does non-tender him, they still might try to re-sign him to a minor league deal.  Im hesitant to think many teams make him an offer for a major league contract, although I suppose some team like Miami might offer minimum wage and start him out in AAA, assuming he doesn’t dislocate his shoulder putting pen to paper…

Arb money? The guy has hardly played. What's he going to get $1.5 to $2M?

He certainly may be with another team, next year, but I seriously doubt he's non tendered, unless the docs say he's done.

He's a career .800 batter with 30+ HR power and a high OBP. 950+ PAs is no tiny sample size, but when you figure  all the injury issues, I'm sure some teams would prefer to pass.

I would not mind having him at WOO. We do ave Brannon and Jo Garcia, and Romy plus Sogard offer decent 1B dept, but if Casas can come close to is career numbers, he's better than all of them.

[notin]

49 minutes ago, Donnie Sadler was short said:

I'm all for giving Casas one more chance with arbitration.  Not sure how it works but would an arbitrator REALLY think he deserves a bump from 1.5 to 3-4 mill?

The arbitrator doesn’t determine how much Casas gets, just which offer is closer to fair.

Casas made $1.6mill last.  If Boston offer $1.7mill and Casas asks for $3mill, he might win.

But honestly, the money isn’t likely to be as big of an issue as the 40 man roster spot…

[moonslav59]

56 minutes ago, Donnie Sadler was short said:

I'm all for giving Casas one more chance with arbitration.  Not sure how it works but would an arbitrator REALLY think he deserves a bump from 1.5 to 3-4 mill?

I'm thinking $2.25M to $2.75M.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, notin said:

But for arbitration money along with a 40 man roster spot?

The arb money might only be $1M than minimum wage.  And most teams don't have quality players at the #40 slot.  If I were the Rox, LAA, or the Nats, I'd offer him $1.5M plus games-played bonuses.  You probably show a profit if you are right just 10% of the time.  That said, the RS don't have the luxury of open spaces.  But at the cost of $1.5M and let's say, Cheng's slot, I'd gamble on Casas.

[harmony]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

  3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

From my interpretation of MLB-R, Aroz might be $66M/3+.

I would not give him $45M/3, but someone will give more.

Teoscar Hernandez was 32 years old when the defensively suspect righthanded hitter landed a three-year, $66 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers after posting 2.3 bWAR in 160 games with the Seattle Mariners.

Randy Arozarena, who turns 32 in February, is a defensively suspect righthanded hitter who has posted 10.5 bWAR in 368 games with the Seattle Mariners.

[notin]

31 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The arb money might only be $1M than minimum wage.  And most teams don't have quality players at the #40 slot.  If I were the Rox, LAA, or the Nats, I'd offer him $1.5M plus games-played bonuses.  You probably show a profit if you are right just 10% of the time.  That said, the RS don't have the luxury of open spaces.  But at the cost of $1.5M and let's say, Cheng's slot, I'd gamble on Casas.

I’d actually rather have Cheng than Casas.  At least Cheng can swing a bat without taking a trip to Ortho…

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

I’d actually rather have Cheng than Casas.  At least Cheng can swing a bat without taking a trip to Ortho…

We can easily keep both.

[notin]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We can easily keep both.

We need more Tsung-Che Cheng.  12-1 in his starts says it all…

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

We need more Tsung-Che Cheng.  12-1 in his starts says it all…

Yes, keep both!

[moonslav59]

We do not have a roster crunch, even if we add Jo Garcia or Brannon. We'd have to sign 4 free agents to get down to tough DFA chocies.

Plus, Brez loves dealing bubble players over the winter, so clearing roster slots is an option, if needed.

Crochet, Tolle, Gray/FA, Suarez, Bennett, Bello, Houck, Crawford. Oviedo, Paez

Chapman, Whitlock, Miller, Slaten, Weissert, Guerrero, Moran, Gamboa

Rutschman, Wong/other

Contreras, Romy, Casas

Mead, Seigler

Arias (added to 40) Story, Cheng

Durbin, Monasterio

Anthony, Jones

Rafaela, White

Abreu, Campbell

Yoshida, Gasper

That's 38 with room to add two players beyond Gray/FA.

Trade:

Trade/DFA: Duran, Eaton, Kelly, Samaniego, Burgos, Olds

If we add 3 players, trade or DFA Gamboa, Jones or Wong, if it's a catcher. (Paez or Moran could go before we get to Cheng and Casas, but we'd need pitching depth, so either the guys we add are all pitchers or we keep White,  Moran or even Gamboa.)

Rule 5:

We could add Jo Garcia and trade Wong.

We could add Brannon and trade/DFA someone.

We could add Wehunt, if we think he's that good.

It's not like walking the roster crunch line will be easy, but I don't see major issues. None of the players I suggested trading first are anyone to cry about. Some will cry about Duran, but we can keep him and trade Jones. Are we really going to get upset if we lose Gamboa, Jones or Moran? Maybe one is better than Casas or Cheng, and we do have Mead, Romy and Sogard at 1B depth, but I'm keeping the .800 career batter in the fold for another season at $1.8 to $2.5M.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, keep both!

Over who?

Counting 60 day IL players, the Sox have 47 players on their 40 man roster.  IKF pand Sandoval and maybe Gray leave via free agency.

4 more have to go, plus one for every player you add…

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Over who?

Counting 60 day IL players, the Sox have 47 players on their 40 man roster.  IKF pand Sandoval and maybe Gray leave via free agency.

4 more have to go, plus one for every player you add…

See my last post. I got it down to 37 (38 if we keep Gray or add a FA SP)

Duran, Eaton, Kelly, Samaniego, Burgos, Olds

(Keep Duran and shed Jones or Gamboa)

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, notin said:

The arbitrator doesn’t determine how much Casas gets, just which offer is closer to fair.

Casas made $1.6mill last.  If Boston offer $1.7mill and Casas asks for $3mill, he might win.

But honestly, the money isn’t likely to be as big of an issue as the 40 man roster spot…

He won't win. He's been injured and hasn't played. There has been no reason to increase his pay. They'd stick with the 1.7. That's what I've seen with other injured players anyway. 

[drewski6]

12 hours ago, harmony said:

Teoscar Hernandez was 32 years old when the defensively suspect righthanded hitter landed a three-year, $66 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers after posting 2.3 bWAR in 160 games with the Seattle Mariners.

Randy Arozarena, who turns 32 in February, is a defensively suspect righthanded hitter who has posted 10.5 bWAR in 368 games with the Seattle Mariners.

A yoshida for Hernandez trade could make sense.

[mvp 78]

53 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

A yoshida for Hernandez trade could make sense.

Why would the Doyers make that trade? 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Why would the Doyers make that trade? 

They wouldn't but they would save little money...

Yoshida: 27:$18M 

Teoscar: 27:$14.5M, 28:$15M club option ($6.5M buyout), 29:$15M conditional option

They don't need to save money, so maybe we'd have to include someone like Brannon, JO Garcia, or some bubble guy.

How about Yoshida & Duran for TH?