Red Sox Magic Number

[JAG]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Getting in is the important part. It's not the first time they've clinched after a loss. It won't be the last. 

clinching after a loss isn't the issue, it is celebrating with champagne for accomplishing nothing but mediocrity, if they lose in the first round again then they accomplished nothing this year, I don't think we will see fans wearing t shirts because they got into a wild card in 2026       

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, JAG said:

clinching after a loss isn't the issue, it is celebrating with champagne for accomplishing nothing but mediocrity, if they lose in the first round again then they accomplished nothing this year, I don't think we will see fans wearing t shirts because they got into a wild card in 2026       

It's a long season. They are allowed to celebrate their accomplishment. The initial goal is to get into the playoffs. They celebrated after 2021 and it was a cool moment. Just because that team didn't ultimately win the WS, doesn't take away from them getting into the playoffs. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

It's a long season. They are allowed to celebrate their accomplishment. The initial goal is to get into the playoffs. They celebrated after 2021 and it was a cool moment. Just because that team didn't ultimately win the WS, doesn't take away from them getting into the playoffs. 

If someone told you on April 25th that game would be the last time Garrett Crochet started for the Sox in 2026, would anyone believe that this “pitching and defense” team would clinch a postseason spot, or if someone said on June 25, when Boston was 32-46, that this team would be clinching in the final week, would anyone have believed either statement?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

If someone told you on April 25th that game would be the last time Garrett Crochet started for the Sox in 2026, would anyone believe that this “pitching and defense” team would clinch a postseason spot, or if someone said on June 25, when Boston was 32-46, that this team would be clinching in the final week, would anyone have believed either statement?

No, but at least we all knew which pitcher from the 2025 Red Sox starting rotation would throw the most innings this season. Hint: he was absent when his teacher took attendance.

[moonslav59]

What happens when the magic number is a negative number?

[notin]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

What happens when the magic number is a negative number?

You have to lose games to clinch…

[JoeBrady]

21 hours ago, JAG said:

clinching after a loss isn't the issue, it is celebrating with champagne for accomplishing nothing but mediocrity, if they lose in the first round again then they accomplished nothing this year, I don't think we will see fans wearing t shirts because they got into a wild card in 2026       

If the average record for a playoff team is .550, then I assume that teams clinch the playoffs, with a loss, 45% of the time.  Would LAD, Mil, and Atl not celebrate if they clinched with a loss?

[JoeBrady]

20 hours ago, notin said:

would anyone believe that this “pitching and defense” team would clinch a postseason spot

There were enough of us that believed in pitching, defense, and a decent offense would/should win.  Run differential is the guiding light in baseball.  It doesn't matter how you get there.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

There were enough of us that believed in pitching, defense, and a decent offense would/should win.  Run differential is the guiding light in baseball.  It doesn't matter how you get there.

There is so much proof out there that winning a ring does NOT follow some rigid set of guidelines. One could argue the set of guidelines pretty loose. We can point to the Royals and some other anomalies, but nobody ever argues we should emulate those "surprise" team philosophies and strategies.

GMs are always trying to improve their roster and system. Most are keenly aware of the weak areas and strengths. Their goal may be to eliminate or lessen their weaknesses, but sometime available players are just too costly within the framework they have to work with, so they look to improve other slots to make up for the weak area they could not fix. I see that type of situation with Brez's choice to not overbid for Bregman and to choose the Durbin trade and Suarez signing instead. He fixed the 3B defense and added a dose of hope that Durbin could hit well enough to not be a minus. The loss of overall value between Bregman and Durbin might also lessen or even flip over years 3-4-5, if Bregman declined and or Durbin improved by enough. The kicker was using the Bregman money to sign Suarez- a fine pitcher with proven playoff, positive achievements.

At the time, the loss of Harrison & Drohan was at most viewed as losing some possible but sketchy rotation depth, but again, adding Suarez, pushed almost everyone else down a peg and easily negated that perceived loss. Losing DHam was viewed as an addition by subtraction by some on this site, and clearly Seigler & Monasterio made up for his loss.

We went into this season with a super rotation and 5 pitcher depth that perhaps no other team could match. Our pen looked nice for 3-4 guys, but the rest looked highly questionable. There was some hope that a starter could be used in the pen, and not many expected that guy to be Bello, but we did get some help, despite the large number of SP'ers missing all or nearly all of the season due to injuries. Brez had a pretty good record building pretty good bottom of the pens with no-name pitchers. I think most of us would say we outperformed expectation with this pen. (There was also doubts that 80 year old Chapman could come close to his 2025 season.)

Much of the focus was on the offense, but did anyone really think on opening day, we'd be bottom 15 in MLB? By mid-June many did, and some key injuries hurt. Many felt Contreras was not the Alonso or Schwarber addition, but he could make up for losing Bregman (who only played about 2/3 of 2025.) Many felt Anthony was poised to  break out. Others pointed to how many decent batters we had that were nearing prime and could/should improve on 2025. Others pointed to the loss of bad offense along with the loss of Bregman, Refsnyder and Nate Lowe as reason to not fret about big losses.

By mid-June the offense sucks crowd was boisterous and adamant, then the weren't (except for Fred.) To be fair, the full season numbers place us 20th in runs scored (21 behind #14.)

We are days away from the end of the season, so these rankings should not change much, but as of now, we are...

3rd in Pitching fWAR

10th in everyday fWAR as a team (very close to #8 or 9.)

20th in Runs scored but 11th in OPS (.001 from 10th and .002 from 9th) Our wRC+ is 100. I think it's safe to say our offense has been near average over the whole season but with a recency effect that places us top 10 or better depending on the sample size you choose to use. (We are 5th in runs scored in the last 81 games (a half season.)

2nd in team ERA- (to NYY) We are first in FIP at 3.67. One could argue we are tied for the best pitching staff in the AL and maybe even MLB- by the numbers. We are 3rd in MLB in ERs allowed and far enough behind the Yanks to say we finished 2nd in pitching to the NYY and maybe tied with MIL for 2nd best in MLB.

3rd in DRS. Defense is always the hardest to quantify. We rank 7th in OAA and fangraph's defense index, so I think it's safe to say we are about top 5.

With the ranking on offense up for debate, I'd still say we are a top 10 offense (top 5 in last 81 games) top 5 pitching staff and top 5 on defense. 

Sounds like a winning formula.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

don't forget the final piece in the Harrison trade: "with the #67 pick in the 2026 draft, Boston selects Owen Hull."

[mvp 78]

September 

86 wRC+

28th Runs

Bats need to come around a bit or it won't matter. 

[mvp 78]

 

[drewski6]

35 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

don't forget the final piece in the Harrison trade: "with the #67 pick in the 2026 draft, Boston selects Owen Hull."

My favorite part.

[drewski6]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

September 

86 wRC+

28th Runs

Bats need to come around a bit or it won't matter. 

Yup.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

There is so much proof out there that winning a ring does NOT follow some rigid set of guidelines. One could argue the set of guidelines pretty loose.

 

Including chasing reg season run-differential.  Everything is case by case, always.

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Including chasing reg season run-differential.  Everything is case by case, always.

I do think the idea is to build a team that keeps improving on runs scored and runs allowed. If you can't do both, you try to improve one by more than the other declines or stays about even. That is essentially run differential.

Teams with better run differentials usually win more, and it is probably the best indicator of wins vs losses out there. I keep using the Durbin/Suarez vs Bregman/Harrison as a model of how a GM can pivot to attempt to affect the run differential in a near equal but vastly different way.

We may need to heavily rely on 2027 health to see it all come to fruition, especially with Crochet, Mead, Anthony and maybe one or two from Crawford, Oviedo, Story or Houck, but as I have pointed out, I like our depth and extended depth a lot. (SP'er and pen depth might be lacking.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Nowadays in any team sport, I don't say "if they stay healthy" anymore. 

If that phrase is used, then I just think: They don't have enough.

Injuries seem more prevalent than ever in baseball. But they're not an unknown variable -- because we know pitchers on every team will go on the IL with elbow issues, and batters will swing too hard and hurt obliques or wristfingers, and runners will always pull hammies, calves and quads.

The only clubs that have enough are those willing to spend enough. The Dodgers aren't ruining MLB, they're stockpiling their 40-man roster with the plan of using at least 40 out of necessity.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

There is so much proof out there that winning a ring does NOT follow some rigid set of guidelines.

The playoffs are pretty random.

But over the full regular season, you'll be about 96% accurate using run differential/Py.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I do think the idea is to build a team that keeps improving on runs scored and runs allowed. If you can't do both, you try to improve one by more than the other declines or stays about even. That is essentially run differential.

Teams with better run differentials usually win more, and it is probably the best indicator of wins vs losses out there. I keep using the Durbin/Suarez vs Bregman/Harrison as a model of how a GM can pivot to attempt to affect the run differential in a near equal but vastly different way.

We may need to heavily rely on 2027 health to see it all come to fruition, especially with Crochet, Mead, Anthony and maybe one or two from Crawford, Oviedo, Story or Houck, but as I have pointed out, I like our depth and extended depth a lot. (SP'er and pen depth might be lacking.)

Run differential in reg season does not equal run differential in playoffs, is my point. Things like #5 pitcher, and half your bullpen matter more in reg season than they do in playoffs, for example.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

September 

86 wRC+

28th Runs

Bats need to come around a bit or it won't matter. 

No Ceddanne, Contreras and Yoshida will do that.  You'll also find that BABIP has a fair impact over short-term results.

[JoeBrady]

51 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If that phrase is used, then I just think: They don't have enough.

It depends on whom you lose.  Losing Story was not a difference maker.  But no one can replace a Crochet.

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It depends on whom you lose.  Losing Story was not a difference maker.  But no one can replace a Crochet.

Thats captain Trevor Story to you.

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It depends on whom you lose.  Losing Story was not a difference maker.  But no one can replace a Crochet.

Tolle replaced Crochet.  Story was our leader in 2025 in runs scored, rbis, homeruns, runs and was our best hitter in the 2025 playoffs.

Story not being a difference maker and crochet being impossible to replace is soooo true, if it were opposite day.

[drewski6]

28 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The playoffs are pretty random.

But over the full regular season, you'll be about 96% accurate using run differential/Py.

Yup, the dodgers won 3 years in a row by luck.

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Run differential in reg season does not equal run differential in playoffs, is my point. Things like #5 pitcher, and half your bullpen matter more in reg season than they do in playoffs, for example.

Yes, very true, and in some ways, I think our team looks better for the playoffs than the season, as our top 3 SP'ers and 4-5 RP'ers compare better with other playoff teams than out 4-5 SP'ers and 6-8 RP'ers.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

No Ceddanne, Contreras and Yoshida will do that.  You'll also find that BABIP has a fair impact over short-term results.

Rafaela had a 91 wRC+ in AUG. Yoshida isn't coming back. 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, very true, and in some ways, I think our team looks better for the playoffs than the season, as our top 3 SP'ers and 4-5 RP'ers compare better with other playoff teams than out 4-5 SP'ers and 6-8 RP'ers.

I agree.  But Joes playoffs are a crapshoot and lets celebrate making a playoffs in a league where half the teams are hardly trying and 6 freaking teams make it, sounds like a recipe to not hold anyone accountable.

I dont think Im being unreasonable.  3 months ago I was vocal that Breslow needed to go. Im off that.  No matter what happens here until the end of the season, I do not think Breslow should get fired after this year.  Worst case scenario would be losing 2 in a row to NYY and showing very little with the bats.  Even if that does happen, if I was owner, I wouldnt fire him. He did enough to keep his job already.

But if worst case scenario that I outlined above comes to fruition, then Breslow will be 4 years with 0 playoff series wins (fact).  And it would have been second year in a row where our runs / game was way below playoff average (fact). And it will feel like the writing was on the wall (opinion) and a lot of the rah-rah that Breslow got (and Im currently feeling) will go away if this year ends on a whimper the same as last year (opinion).

So win one series , Im joining the high five over Breslow club
Lose to the Yankees but score more than 4.0 runs/game, Im joining the high five over Breslow club
Be an easy out and score not enough runs against the yankees?  Then its 4 years with no playoff series wins, and he suddenly looks like a guy who didnt learn enough from the 2025 noodlebat driven defeat.  And I still wont fire him (Breslow). But I will roll my eyes at Joe Brady when he will inevitably say Breslow did a great job.

At some point, you gotta get past the first round.  

[drewski6]

Breslows 2026 grade is so far so good....But if we go out in first round same way as last year in the same noodlebat fashion, then all the people who said Breslow didnt do enough to build the offense look right.  
 

[drewski6]

I just want fair accountability.  Not bootlicking and not Freds look for an excuse to be negative.  

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Yup, the dodgers won 3 years in a row by luck.

They've won two years in a row.

And they went 2-0 in one-run games in the 2025 WS.

It's like the WSOP.  It doesn't matter how good you are; you have to get lucky to win.