A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[mvp 78]

2014: 3.77 FIP

2015: 3.62 FIP

2016: hot start pitching in pitcher's park in SD with newly developed cutter, 2.47 ERA

There was a very reasonable expectation that there would be regression for Pom.

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That's all we talked about at the time of the trade. Not my fault if you were somewhere else at the time.

I heard the talk by a few. If talk was fact, just because it turned out to be partially true, then what?

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

I heard the talk by a few. If talk was fact, just because it turned out to be partially true, then what?

4.59 ERA for BOS in 2016.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

2014: 3.77 FIP

2015: 3.62 FIP

2016: hot start pitching in pitcher's park in SD with newly developed cutter, 2.47 ERA

There was a very reasonable expectation that there would be regression for Pom.

Some pitchers develop a new pitch and improve beyond a half season.

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Some pitchers develop a new pitch and improve beyond a half season.

And lots of people were saying that MLB would catch up to him. It did.

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

4.59 ERA for BOS in 2016.

If you meant he wasn't going to keep up the first half pace for the remaining part of 20216 and beyond, yes, but I don't think anyone expected a 4.60 ERA and FIP, either.

3.32 in 2017 does not look like regression.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

And lots of people were saying that MLB would catch up to him. It did.

True, but that's not the same as saying this...

....a pitcher that was clearly going to regress immediately.

[JimEd]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

So, Cy Youngs:

Schlitter AL

Misiorowski NL

MVP

Yordan AL

Ohtani NL (PC-A is close)

LOL...PCA wins and Ohtani is not even close.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

LOL...PCA wins and Ohtani is not even close.

PCA .942> Ohatnai .902, yes

But, add 86 IP at 1.79 ERA and it's close.

If you add the BWAR, PCA wins easily 8.6 to 6.5.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

LOL...PCA wins and Ohtani is not even close.

On bb-ref's page of batting leaders, PCA leads the NL in 24 categories and Ohtani leads in zero. 

Nothing against DHs like Papi or Yordan, but if the comp is a far better hitter and also the best defensive player in baseball at his position -- all season -- it's no contest.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Just making up stuff right now? 

You want me to re-check the ERA & IPs he had in AA?  It's been 80 years since anyone ever asked me to re-check my calculations.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

And lots of people were saying that MLB would catch up to him. It did.

That depends on 'catch up' and 'regress'.  

• 2014: 3.77 FIP
• 2015: 3.62 FIP
• 2016:  2.47 ER

If you suggesting that the 2.47 would regress closer to the 3.6-3.70 range, that seems fair.  But that range is still pretty good.  The ERA+ range for those 2.5 years is probably in the 125-130 range.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

That depends on 'catch up' and 'regress'.  

• 2014: 3.77 FIP
• 2015: 3.62 FIP
• 2016:  2.47 ER

If you suggesting that the 2.47 would regress closer to the 3.6-3.70 range, that seems fair.  But that range is still pretty good.  The ERA+ range for those 2.5 years is probably in the 125-130 range.

He regressed to the point where his total ERA for the season wound up at 3.32, which trends towards his prior two FIP years. 

With BOS: 4.24 ERA, 4.41 FIP

He fell off after getting here. Only stop worse for him was COL. 

[JoeBrady]

15 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

On bb-ref's page of batting leaders, PCA leads the NL in 24 categories and Ohtani leads in zero. 

Nothing against DHs like Papi or Yordan, but if the comp is a far better hitter and also the best defensive player in baseball at his position -- all season -- it's no contest.

It's no contest on paper, but MLB tends to award things to the bigger names.  It shouldn't be, but I won't be shocked if Ohtani gets it.

[moonslav59]

PCA blows Ohtani away on offense and defense, but he doesn't pitch.

I'm not saying 86 IP from Ohtani is enough to outweigh the massive advantage PCA has as an everyday player this year, but 86 UP at sub 1.80 ERA is a lot of value.

fWAR it's 9.9 to 3.8, and absurd difference. Ohtani has 2.9 pitching so adding is still way short.

I agree on PCA, but the novelty of two-way players may not have worn off yet.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If the Sox can just go 7-8 in their final 15 games, either the Jays and Rangers would have to go 15-0 to overtake them.

As far as Boston not having to go to the Bronx for the Wild Card round, the Guardians would have to go 14-1... 

In other words, unless the Red Sox totally tank on purpose, nothing is going to change their postseason outlook. They could even bring up minor league pitchers who are 0-9 with 7 ERAs, and those guys might win and spoil plans.

So fans better be prepared for Breslow and Bailey's Flying Circus the last two weeks. The Sox will rest any big leaguer with a hangnail, and play Chad Tracy's favorite Woosters to finish out the string.

And don't worry -- if the Sox absolutely have to win a game or two at the end, the last six are at Fenway vs. Cleveland and Chicago, two other teams who may be resting their regulars and pitchers for the first round...

[moonslav59]

4 behind the Yanks matters more to me than the "magic number," but even that seems like a fantasy.

Get the pitchers some rest; line them up for the optimal playoff order; get players healthy and try to keep 'em sharp.

[moonslav59]

OPS Against last 4 weeks: (PAs)

.167 Whitlock (12) Need this guy!

.421 Chapman (33) Welcome back!

.487 Gamboa (41) Thanks Brez!

.492 Miller (40) THanks Brez!

.632 Olds (54) WOW!

.669 Gray, .690 Bello, .722 Suarez, .739 Tolle & .771 Bennett, .854 Sandoval- The starters.

.724 Guerrero, .754 Burgos & .755 Moran

.868 Weissert

1.472 Paez (23)

 

[moonslav59]

OPS Last 4 weeks: (PAs if under 25)

1.312 Gasper

1.131 Jones

.971 Seigler (17)

.853 Abreu

.801 Anthony

.800 Story

.792 Sogard

.762 Contreras

.714 White

.703 Duran (3rd on team in PAs/4 wks)

.695 AR

.597 Durbin, .581 IKF (22) .552 Wong, .316 Monasterio

[moonslav59]

Chunking the Sox season into uneven sample sizes:

13-21 to start the season (.382)

14-14 in the next 28 games (.500)

5-11 before "the stretch" (.313)

31-5 in historic stretch (.861 is wacko!)

17-17 since "history" (.500)

[notin]

40 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Chunking the Sox season into uneven sample sizes:

13-21 to start the season (.382)

14-14 in the next 28 games (.500)

5-11 before "the stretch" (.313)

31-5 in historic stretch (.861 is wacko!)

17-17 since "history" (.500)

Actually being .500 since is actually pretty good.  I think what a lot of people forgot about Morgan Magic was that after the original 18-1 stretch (or whatever it was), that team played under .500 ball for the rest of the season.  Still won the AL East…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Actually being .500 since is actually pretty good.  I think what a lot of people forgot about Morgan Magic was that after the original 18-1 stretch (or whatever it was), that team played under .500 ball for the rest of the season.  Still won the AL East…

Ultimately, being over .500 in the playoffs, or at least advancing 1-2 rounds will be a major part of the final grade for the Sox season.

The team's 5 year trend by W-L% only...

.481 (2022)

.481

.500

.549

.541 (2026) 

The team was 116-106 from 2020-2021 (.522.)

[moonslav59]

14 players on the IL and or rehabbing. Maybe 1-2 return.

Contreras should.

Rafaela could.

Guerrero might.

Houck will pitch his 3rd rehab game on 9/15. Maybe...

Oviedo might pitch in AAA 9/17.

Crochet has one more pen session then might get a rehab game.

Crawford has resumed pen sessions. Very long shot.

Kelly is throwing pen sessions. Same.

Slaten is not throwing. Same.

Mead has not started swinging a bat, yet. 2027 is likely it.

White is on crutches- see ya in '27.

Yoshida is not close- see ya in '27, if not traded.

Rivera was recently placed on the 60 IL.

Casas is out until '27 (non tender?)

More than half these guys might have had major roles, if healthy.

 

[moonslav59]

Significant IL stints in 2026:

SP'ers...

SP1 Crochet missed 27 starts

SP4 Houck missed 33 starts (was 2024 ace)

SP5/6 Crawford missed 33 starts (was IP leader in 2024)

SP6/7 Sandoval missed 2/3 season

SP7/8 Oviedo did not start one game in 2026

Early missed time and was traded. Gray and Suarez missed a start or two.

____________________

RP'ers

RP2 Whitlock missed a week or two.

RP3 Slaten missed most of the season

RP 4/5 Guerrero is out now

RP9/10 Kelly missed the whole season

RP15 E Rivera missed time and is out now.

_____________________

Catchers

AR has missed some time. Narvaez and Wong only missed a little time.

_____________________

1B:

Contreras missed time twice.

Casas missed the whole year & Romy missed a third of the season or more.

______________________

2B

Mead played 4 innings then poof.

Mayer got hurt then traded.

IKF, Seigler and others missed time with injuries.

_________________________

SS

Story missed about 2/3 and Mayer went on the IL afterwards.

________________________

3B

No significant injuries

________________________

OF

Anthony may play about 1/3 of the season

Rafaela is out now. White, too.

________________________

DH

Yoshida was on a long IL stint, returned and now will miss the rest.

Romy was out a lot.

[notin]

On 9/9/2026 at 8:52 AM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

On bb-ref's page of batting leaders, PCA leads the NL in 24 categories and Ohtani leads in zero. 

Nothing against DHs like Papi or Yordan, but if the comp is a far better hitter and also the best defensive player in baseball at his position -- all season -- it's no contest.

Word has it even Ohtani has bet on PCA to win MVP…

[moonslav59]

Run differentials:

+125 NYY

+ 88 BOS

+70 DET (-5.5 WC)

+69 TBR

+34 CWS (76-73) ALC leader

-7 CLE (WC3 slot +1.0) and (-0.5 ALC)

-31 TOR (-1 WC3)

-35 BAL (-4 WC3)

-44 TEX (-2 WC3)

-53 HOU (Leads ALW)

NL

+195 MIL

+170 LAD

+138 CHC (WC1)

+116 ATL

+31 PHI (WC2)

+26 PIT (-6 WC)

+20 SDP (WC3)

[moonslav59]

Updated Sox ERA Leaders  

2.76  Gray

3.02 Tolle

3.33 Suarez

3.69 Bennett

__________

1.95 Chapman

1.81 Whitlock

1.23 Miller

3.26 Guerreo

[moonslav59]

How about Okamoto (32) and Murakami (31) with 30+ HRs?

One guy I wanted (BLowe) is at 29, but hey, I mentioned Polanco as an option, so there is THAT!

[Maxbialystock]

On 9/9/2026 at 9:55 AM, JoeBrady said:

You want me to re-check the ERA & IPs he had in AA?  It's been 80 years since anyone ever asked me to re-check my calculations.

80 years sure beats me because I'm just 86 and 80 years ago my arithmetic was pretty barebones.  

I got a lot better but freely admit my calculations can be suspect.  

Pomeranz had one lucky season.

And I hate to break in on this inane discussion, but my latest "realistic view of 2026" is as follows--

Given the horrible start, a heckuva season with more ups and downs than I can remember in one season.  

long suit obviously is the pitching, rotation and bullpen, who this season are helped by a pretty decent defense.  Offense is always the Sox long suit, but this season (with 12 games to go) they are ranked 17th in runs scored.  

As I have said countless times, this team is now fully Breslow's team (if you ignore overpaid Story and Yoshida who were signed by Chaim Bloom) and with the return to small ball (Sox are 24th in dingers) one can claim that Sabermetrics are in the rearview mirror.   So is Cora (of whom I was a big fan).  

Breslow had the temerity to dump our best hitter, Devers, in June of last year and the guy who replaced him at 3b, Bregman, in the off season because he didn't want to shell out $35M X 5 = $175M.  So the answer to Abbott/Costello memorable question--who's on third?--is Durbin, a bargain whose WAR is 3.9 compared to Devers 3.8 and Bregman's 5.0.  

I dwell on Breslow because the CBO--supported by the owner--makes a huge difference in the quality of players.  And right now I give him a ton of credit because for over half of this season the Sox have been without their two best players last season--Crochet and Anthony.  

Last year the Sox won 89 games.  Right now they are at 82 with 14 games to play, so 89 is a reasonable expectation.  So is playing 3 games vs the Yankees in the postseason.  Last year the Sox won the first game, lost a thriller in game 2, and were scoreless vs Schlittler in game 3.  This year Schlittler will almost certainly lead off for the Yankees, 

I think the Yankees will win again, but also think the Sox have a shot with their best lineup healthy and the 3d best ERA in MLB.  Gray, Tolle, and Bennett pitched 13.2, 13.0, and 12.1 innings vs the Yankees this season with ERA's of 1.98, 0.69, and 0.73.  Suarez got killed twice by the Yankees--including 6 runs just 2 weeks ago.  

 

[moonslav59]

American League

Runs Allowed since June 25th

160 NYY (196 scored) NET +36

167 TOR (199 scored) +32

180 TBR (212 scored) NET+32

181 DET (227 scored) NET +46

187 CLE (195 scored) NET +8

188 BOS (231 scored) NET +43