A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[drewski6]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure why the O's not wanting to resign Rut matters much.

Word is the Yanks were ready to overpay, too.

The O's worked the big overpay well. Most deadline trades range from overpay to huge overpays. That's why dealing in winter is better, and Brez did a lot of that.

The trade was a big gamble. It looks horrible now. It can only become close to a wash, if all the guys we gave don't work out.

Pretty early to be declaring can only be a wash.  Some postseason success and a decent year next year are still possible.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

IMO, they did exactly that.  Half the off-season criticisms were about us missing out on 4-5 different Plan A's.  Flexible and nimble is the opposite of having a distinct Plan A.

I agree.  Where you and I have disagreed in the past is one time you said (or at least I interpreted your thoughts) as them having a plan A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H all mapped out separated by if statements.  And I think theres a lot more swerving and thinking on the feet and reacting.  I think the plans are more abstract than that.  The plans are like try to add righty power, heres a list of guys wed like to target.  And maybe there is an order.  But I dont think its like try to get alonso, and if cant than try to get contreras but only if they eat 10m, and then plan c would be this and that.  

Think about yourself when you are fantasy drafting.  Well I like this Catcher, and I could take him 5th round here, but I see like 3 other Catchers I like still on the board, so Im going to take a pitcher here because I think this pitcher is the last of the tier 2 pitchers, and i bet one of these catchers who i lke will still be around.

[JoeBrady]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Pretty early to be declaring can only be a wash.  Some postseason success and a decent year next year are still possible.

Only because I was randomly checking something else, but as recently as 6/24, we were 15th in the AL and 29th in MLB.  It might be too soon to judge someone's future career.  And he does have a .750 OPS over the past two games.

[Maxbialystock]

On 9/2/2026 at 9:34 AM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I don't like giving away games in September to rest key guys for October.

First, you have to get to October -- and nothing is guaranteed with this hot and cold roller coaster there's no tomorrow like there was yesterday offense... and burnt out pitching staff, 

Second, when has this strategy ever worked in baseball autumns: let the hares sprint to the finish line and we'll tortoise in our shells and then turn on the jets before it's too late...

Grey was faltering in his last 2 games and he has started more games and pitched more innings than any other Sox starter.  

I agree completely that getting to October is job one, but think Gray missing one start isn't nearly as important as getting to October.  The Sox still have a comfortable lead, but September 2011 was so bad it caused Francona to be let go.  And right now the pitching overall looks terrible.  In the last 7 games the Sox gave up 26 runs to the Yankees and 25 games to the Mariners.  ERA for the last 7 days is 7.38.  

So I think resting Gray was a good idea, but am plenty worried about the staff as a whole.  

[JoeBrady]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

(or at least I interpreted your thoughts) as them having a plan A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H all mapped out separated by if statements.  And I think theres a lot more swerving and thinking on the feet and reacting that goes into that.  I think the plans are more abstract than that.  The plans are like try to add righty power, heres a list of guys wed like to target.  And maybe there is an order. 

I think that's a pretty fair assessment of my approach, open up to different interpretations.  IMVHO, I think it starts with:

• What do we need?  That's simple.  We needed a #2 SP, a 1B, and either a 2B or 3B.
• What do we want?  Still straightforward, but with a little less clarity.  We needed a 2nd #2 SP or a #3.  And maybe a power hitter.  Maybe an RP.
• What are our resources, both in terms of money and prospects.

So that's the start.  How you get there becomes a little more random.  There is no sense, imo, pontificating over Contreras or Alonso, even if I prefer Contreras.  But acquiring Contreras changes the decision-tree for every downstream decision.  Acquiring Contreras makes adding Bregman for more unlikely, thus making Durbin much more likely.  That's just the way decision trees evolve.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, notin said:

If Mead takes the field next year, corner INF is (hopefully) more likely…

You'd have him start above Contreras and Durbin???

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I agree the Sox gave up a lot, but when all the dust settles it might wind up the Sox gave up Eyanson and a bunch of career minor leaguers for Rutschman, too…

It has less to do with what they turn out to be and more to do with what their value is as trade chips. They could have been used in other/better/more productive trades. 

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Grey was faltering in his last 2 games and he has started more games and pitched more innings than any other Sox starter.  

I agree completely that getting to October is job one, but think Gray missing one start isn't nearly as important as getting to October.  The Sox still have a comfortable lead, but September 2011 was so bad it caused Francona to be let go.  And right now the pitching overall looks terrible.  In the last 7 games the Sox gave up 26 runs to the Yankees and 25 games to the Mariners.  ERA for the last 7 days is 7.38.  

So I think resting Gray was a good idea, but am plenty worried about the staff as a whole.  

I dont think he was thinking specifically giving Gray some obviously needed rest.  I think he was speaking more generally.  Like a coach benching half his team for the final week if theyve clinched the division.  That can backfire.  Just like how sometimes when you sweep and then have a long layoff that can backfire.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I think that's a pretty fair assessment of my approach, open up to different interpretations.  IMVHO, I think it starts with:

• What do we need?  That's simple.  We needed a #2 SP, a 1B, and either a 2B or 3B.
• What do we want?  Still straightforward, but with a little less clarity.  We needed a 2nd #2 SP or a #3.  And maybe a power hitter.  Maybe an RP.
• What are our resources, both in terms of money and prospects.

So that's the start.  How you get there becomes a little more random.  There is no sense, imo, pontificating over Contreras or Alonso, even if I prefer Contreras.  But acquiring Contreras changes the decision-tree for every downstream decision.  Acquiring Contreras makes adding Bregman for more unlikely, thus making Durbin much more likely.  That's just the way decision trees evolve.

Agree.  The high level vision is there.  The specific plan on execution varies , swerves and isnt set in stone.

I was at a presentation and the lady said "get out of the tactics, into the strategy"  , and I was impressed by that.  Focus on the bottom line and the high level goals.  Its not about focusing/micromanagement.

So more : we want to spend roughly 40m this offeseason, and would like to add righty power and sure up our OF depth

less: we have 18.5 million to spend on a RF and we are going to go after this free agent specifically, if he gets more than that , then we pivot to this exact player, but we max on 17 for him, which gives us an extra 1.5 to spend on the bullpen in which case we'll go for this guy. But if he gets resigned, we'll go for this guy who we think will cost 400k more.  So well make this other move to free up the 400k.  

Its not mapped out to that degree ^.  

Folks are thinking on their feet and adapting to changes and making decisions case by case.  Its not like Breslow goes into an offseason with a very specific plan.  You just cant plan for every potential outcome and its not wise to.  But absolutely, there are downstream effects.

I think we considered that we could keep shopping after Contreras and that is part of the reason we have him over Alonso.  And the plan was to spend that money on Bregman.  When that didnt work out, I think moving to Ranger was an "on the feet move".  Now maybe it was "try to get contreras over alonso because then we can get someone else too, preferably bregman, but if we dont get him there are other players i like with suarez being one of the options"  ....That type of thinking, I think goes on.  But i dont think it was some long as case statement and if/thens.  I dont think its that formulaic.  I think there is a fair amount of adjusting and thinking on feet that goes on.  But thats how I am.  Im not an overplanner, so maybe I just insert the way I think in others.

But I do think that most GMs/executives have plans and strategies but also think on their feet and swerve a lot.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

And the plan was to spend that money on Bregman.  When that didnt work out, I think moving to Ranger was an "on the feet move". 

It's possible.  But I'm betting it's more complex.  I'm thinking that Breslow (all GMs) know who is available, readily available, and who you will need to overpay for, and sometimes specific prospects.  I don't think Breslow called Mil and randomly asked about Mead, and Mil randomly asked about Harrison, et al.  Breslow probably knew he could get Durbin, and then decided on whether he wanted Durbin + Suarez, or Bregman.

I'd also wager it was the same with Alonso.  Once he had an option on Contreras, that affects his offer price on Alonso.  I feel like a took a class on Boolean Algebra that covered baseball trades.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Im not an overplanner, so maybe I just insert the way I think in others.

I'm probably same, but just the opposite.  My E-mail calendar was filled with every possible event.  It was beautiful.  I could look at my calendar a year in advance.  Then I could see every possible gap in the calendar where I could fill special projects.  Then I could spot any remaining openings where I'd schedule the stuff I didn't really want to do.

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I dont think he was thinking specifically giving Gray some obviously needed rest.  I think he was speaking more generally.  Like a coach benching half his team for the final week if theyve clinched the division.  That can backfire.  Just like how sometimes when you sweep and then have a long layoff that can backfire.

Let me make something very clear.  While I like the idea of resting Gray, I am deeply concerned about the Sox pitching. 

[illinoisredsox]

Deleted

[vegasbob]

14 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

Deleted

What did it say ?

[vegasbob]

Abreu rips some very hittable pitches but he also fouls or pops up on several cookies.

[illinoisredsox]

Just now, vegasbob said:

What did it say ?

It was about Duran and George Scott, put it in the wrong thread (reposted in the game day thread).

It does bump my post count up so I can get closer to get to whatever number I need to get the delete function..

[vegasbob]

1 minute ago, illinoisredsox said:

It was about Duran and George Scott, put it in the wrong thread (reposted in the game day thread).

It does bump my post count up so I can get closer to get to whatever number I need to get the delete function..

Thanks, it was my weak attempt at a lay up joke . I'll give you a like to boost your score

[moonslav59]

14 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

IDK. I think he'd be a really bad 2b. Not sure the MIF situation would be great defensively if he was there. He's more of a future DH IMO. I'd project for 27 that Roman would play more OF and Mead more DH. 

He was the bat we needed.

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Pretty early to be declaring can only be a wash.  Some postseason success and a decent year next year are still possible.

Earlier to say proving bad, but point taken.

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Think about yourself when you are fantasy drafting.  Well I like this Catcher, and I could take him 5th round here, but I see like 3 other Catchers I like still on the board,

The worst part of the draft is when I have decided not to take a particular position because the depth factors look similar between #1 and #10.  And since everyone thinks the same, some guys fall way past their projection.  Then I crack and draft the guy.  And he performs just like the #10 guy.  Raleigh was that guy for me this year.

[moonslav59]

15 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

IDK. I think he'd be a really bad 2b. Not sure the MIF situation would be great defensively if he was there. He's more of a future DH IMO. I'd project for 27 that Roman would play more OF and Mead more DH. 

He was the bat we needed.

[moonslav59]

OPS since ASB:

.638 Rutschman w BOS (.534 overall since break)

.529 Wong

.399 Narvaez

Updated SOX OPS post ASB

1.495 Gasper (seems we're past calling it luck)

1.483 Jones (better than Refsnyder ever was)

1.409 Raman (like a candle in the wind)

1.389 Rogers (we hardly knew ya)

1.126 Story (was strong post ASB, last year too)

.891 Abreu (he's no Papi, but who is?)

.846 Contreras (maybe the IL break will help)

.799 Sogard (he's won me over, finally)

.789 Yoshida (long forgotten)

.750 Durbin (back to earth but not the underworld)

.721 Seigler & .717 Monasterio (came through when needed)

.650 Duran (finding .650 to is liking)

.642 White (Ceddanne woulda caught that homer, tonight)

[moonslav59]

Don't be thinking I'm moving on from 2026, just because I'm drooling over next year's line-up:

1. L Antony LF (Jones/White)

2. R Meas 2B (Story/Sogard/Seigler)

3. L Abreu RF (White)

4. R Contreras 1B (Romy)

5. S Rutschman C (Gasper/Wong)

6. R Rafaela CF (White)

7. S Gasper/R Jones DH (Story/Romy)

8. R Durbin 3B (Story/Sogard)

9. R Arias SS (Story)