Why isn’t Witt a realistic option?

[JBontheMonstah]

I keep seeing these Neto, Pena, Abrams, and Lindor names tossed around but realistically why not Witt? The Royals need a restart and who better than the Sox to do it? Breslow keeps finding pitchers and he will replace prospects lost. 

I don’t see how this deal below doesn’t get it done.

Boston gets

Witt-Beck Way (6’4 26 y/o power righty RP)

*checks 2 boxes in one trade 

 

Royals get

Arias-Witherspoon-Eyanson(These 3 are automatic for Witt)

now throw in 5 of the below:

-Ziehl/Phillips

-Meyer/Sogard/Romero/Godbout/Dorian Soto/Cespedes (2 of this group)

-Justin Gonzales/Azocar

-Nelly/Rivas/Castro

and I could honestly see the Royals wanting Bello on top, cheap controllable starter will have him 5+ years in their budget. Allows them to trade a Bubic and Ragans/Cameron in offseason to help the rebuild and capitalize on Wacha trades now as well. They could completely alter the org with a Red Sox trade. Enough of these prospects are close enough to ready to still capitalize on Caglianone’s prime while building for future as well. 

They potentially get 7 Red Sox top 30. Potentially 3 top 100 if it is Gonzales but I think if Cespedes keeps it up he’s on the top 100 next year. 
 

The Red Sox still have plenty of talent that should be on that top 30 and whatever is left over from the above trade they could still go out and get a Luis Arraez to help the RHP hitting problem. 
 

Could trade Sandoval and Moran/Weissert for some shot in the dart prospects they like to replace some lost talent too.

 

i say get it done. Thoughts?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Welcome to Talk Sox!

The problem I see with this is that the Royals aren't interested in trading Witt. They're trying to get a new stadium built.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Welcome to Talk Sox!

The problem I see with this is that the Royals aren't interested in trading Witt. They're trying to get a new stadium built.

Yes, welcome.

8 players is a nice offer.

[JoeBrady]

My guess is that Witt has excess value of ~ $160M.  Neto has an excess vale of maybe $100M.  I'd rather add Neto and save half my farm.

[mvp 78]

I don't think the Royals are interested in trading their franchise player. We can see personally how trading Betts affected our franchise and the impact it had on our fanbase. 

Also, an 8 for 1 deal may look good on paper, but lower level prospects don't hit the mark the way a smaller deal can. At some point, you're just shoveling a bunch of mediocre talent into a trade to make it work in BTV or whatever. Royals would want high level talent that is MLB ready. Aside from Eyanson and Arias, the Sox don't really have that. Guys in A ball and lower are just lottery tickets that miss more often than not. 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think the Royals are interested in trading their franchise player. We can see personally how trading Betts affected our franchise and the impact it had on our fanbase. 

Also, an 8 for 1 deal may look good on paper, but lower level prospects don't hit the mark the way a smaller deal can. At some point, you're just shoveling a bunch of mediocre talent into a trade to make it work in BTV or whatever. Royals would want high level talent that is MLB ready. Aside from Eyanson and Arias, the Sox don't really have that. Guys in A ball and lower are just lottery tickets that miss more often than not. 

The 8 could be this, but your point is well made.

Eyanson, Arias, Witherspoon are all 1-2 years away. Mayer is ML level. That's 4 close to or at ML level. (Sogard and Romero are, but they wouldnt be part of the 8 I'd choose.)

Azocar or Gonzales have value but may be 2-3 years away. Ziehl or Phillips are nice adds, but not what might land Witt. We'd probbbly need to add Valera or both Azocar and Gonzales (or Godbout.)

[Hugh2]

Witt is probably the most untradeable guy in baseball. 

Ok maybe not, but he's up there.  Teams like the Royals consider trading guys like that when they don't have team control and they know they can't resign them. 

Witt has one of the highest surplus value in the bigs.  Here's a trade I worked out in BTV rated as fair value, which typically teams need to add surplus value in prospect for big league palyers. So if you think this is too much....remember that. 

Red Sox get

Bobby Witt Jr, Seth Lugo, taking on roughly 25 million in Salary for Lugo

Royals get: Franklin Arias, Payton Tolle, Marcelo Mayer, Anthony Eyanson, Enndy Azocar, Justin Gonzales

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

My guess is that Witt has excess value of ~ $160M.  Neto has an excess vale of maybe $100M.  I'd rather add Neto and save half my farm.

Per BTV, Witt has a surplus value of $254mill, while Neto has a surplus value of $61.4 mill.  So Witt is worth an entire infield of Neto’s.

KC isn’t trading Witt.  The Royals don’t “need to restart.”  They were in the postseason 2 years ago and have a solid young core wuth Witt, Jensen, Caglianone and Garcia.  Trading Witt for that haul and then what? Maybe 5 years from now, they’re almost as good as they are today with Witt?

Witt sells tickets.  KC just needs to add a couple players to take advantage of the weak division they’re in.  They’ll be pushing guys like a Strahm, Wacha, and Schreiber.  And maybe some players that aren’t ex-Red Sox, too.  Like Lugo, Massey…

[drewski6]

Witherspoon, Eyanson, Phillips, Meyer, Early, Azocar, Castro for Witt....I would do it, but like others , I dont think you can jsut keep adding players until they say yes.  Id offer it though.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Per BTV, Witt has a surplus value of $254mill, while Neto has a surplus value of $61.4 mill.

Witt only has 4 years left before the opt-out.  That gives him $63M in excess, on top of his $31M salary, for a total of $94M a year of value?

On Neto, it might depend on where they are pulling their WAR values from.  I used bWAR which is more generous with Neto.  Neto has more DRS over the past two seasons and Witt does far better with OAA and FRV.  I wouldn't challenge either methodology, but it is worth noting that Neto's RF/9 is 4.09 while Witt is at 3.66.

[notin]

30 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Witt only has 4 years left before the opt-out.  That gives him $63M in excess, on top of his $31M salary, for a total of $94M a year of value?

On Neto, it might depend on where they are pulling their WAR values from.  I used bWAR which is more generous with Neto.  Neto has more DRS over the past two seasons and Witt does far better with OAA and FRV.  I wouldn't challenge either methodology, but it is worth noting that Neto's RF/9 is 4.09 while Witt is at 3.66.

RF/9 can be influenced by pitching staff, ball park and, well, the guy standing next to you.  It’s not real useful unless you’re comparing two guys on the same team.

I believe BTV uses fWAR, because fWAR attaches cash value for each win, allowing them to compare salary to performance in dollars…

[notin]

55 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Witherspoon, Eyanson, Phillips, Meyer, Early, Azocar, Castro for Witt....I would do it, but like others , I dont think you can jsut keep adding players until they say yes.  Id offer it though.

Still close to $100mill short on BTV.

You are correct that BTV only allows so many players in a trade, which is not a rule in real life…

[notin]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Witherspoon, Eyanson, Phillips, Meyer, Early, Azocar, Castro for Witt....I would do it, but like others , I dont think you can jsut keep adding players until they say yes.  Id offer it though.

BTV accepts Tolle, Arias, Eyanson, Early, Mayer and Azocar for Witt.

With their 6 player limit, there is no way to do it without Tolle.  Unless you include Rafaela…

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Still close to $100mill short on BTV.

You are correct that BTV only allows so many players in a trade, which is not a rule in real life…

Just add a few more A ball guys to push it over the edge! 

[JBontheMonstah]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Witt is probably the most untradeable guy in baseball. 

Ok maybe not, but he's up there.  Teams like the Royals consider trading guys like that when they don't have team control and they know they can't resign them. 

Witt has one of the highest surplus value in the bigs.  Here's a trade I worked out in BTV rated as fair value, which typically teams need to add surplus value in prospect for big league palyers. So if you think this is too much....remember that. 

Red Sox get

Bobby Witt Jr, Seth Lugo, taking on roughly 25 million in Salary for Lugo

Royals get: Franklin Arias, Payton Tolle, Marcelo Mayer, Anthony Eyanson, Enndy Azocar, Justin Gonzales

 

What’s the difference on BTV for tolle vs early? If I’m being honest I think Tolle might be the only one off limits. He is a Boston guy through and through with the highest ceiling. I think for a marquee player they would consider early but I don’t see Bresbot trading Tolle. I’d even be okay trading Anthony over Tolle