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Posted
16 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

One less bat. That doesn’t equate to the dip in production we’ve seen.

Something that can't be measured: the effect one more bat can have on the pitches other hitters get to see.

Obviously, it would have to be an All-Star bat, even a very scary bat -- one that not only extends innings, but stresses starting pitchers, forcing them to strain elbows and shoulders and increase pitch counts, and ultimately throw more from the stretch, eventually taxing and burning out bullpens earlier.

And ideally, create better opportunities for teammates to feast on mistake pitches batting in front of or behind this one more bat.

Posted
13 hours ago, FredLynn said:

The players knew what they needed to become a contender. No doubt they were pretty deflated when they saw that the cheapskate owner wasn’t willing to shell out the money to provide the team with what everyone knew it needed. I am quite sure that is a large part of the reason we stink.

So you’re speaking for the players now?  Doubtful they look at each other the way fans look at them.  Very doubtful they treated Durbin as their cheap settlement when he walked through the door.

If the Sox were a team that “gave up” because of roster moves, please explain why the Sox were 37-36 with Devers last year and 52-37 after he was dealt..

Posted
2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Something that can't be measured: the effect one more bat can have on the pitches other hitters get to see.

Obviously, it would have to be an All-Star bat, even a very scary bat -- one that not only extends innings, but stresses starting pitchers, forcing them to strain elbows and shoulders and increase pitch counts, and ultimately throw more from the stretch, eventually taxing and burning out bullpens earlier.

And ideally, create better opportunities for teammates to feast on mistake pitches batting in front of or behind this one more bat.

Unless that bat struggles.  Then it’s two more bats.

The reality is they had that All Star bat for 73 games last year, traded it away because he was a selfish player, and barely saw a dip in scoring.

Players like Story and Duran have been massive disappointments, and it isn’t because Alex Bregman isn’t around to tell them how to hit any more…

 

Posted

It’s been explained more than once on here by more than one poster why the Red Sox had a lot better record after Devers was dealt than before, and that had to do with the run of very good starting pitching over an extended period of time by Crochet, Bello, and Gio, and most likely the record would have been even better if Devers was still on the team, and most likely also Devers would have made a difference if not a big difference against the Yankees in the postseason.

Posted
21 minutes ago, notin said:

Unless that bat struggles.  Then it’s two more bats.

 

Without holes in them.

H per AB with RISP for Red Sox in 2026 Losses;

2-14, 0-7, 1-3, 0-2, 1-7, 0-5, 5-11, 3-12, 1-6, 0-4, 0-6, 1-5, 0-7, 1-8, 0-1, 1-8, 0-3, 1-8, 1-8, 3-11

Shirley, other teams have similar failure in the clutch in games they lost, but in 16 of 20 Ls Boston has either one or zero hits with runners in scoring position. In those 16 games they are 8-for-80 with RISP -- or in basically half their games this season, the Red Sox' batting average with RISP is .100.

Boston's overall team batting average of .235 is actually tied for 8th in the league with two first-place teams in the Yankees and Guardians, plus the Angels.

Considering how utterly futile the bats have been when it matters, that must mean the Red Sox get a lot of hits when nobody cares (or when viewers get a snack, use the bathroom, or switch to Netflix).

Posted
54 minutes ago, Old Red said:

It’s been explained more than once on here by more than one poster why the Red Sox had a lot better record after Devers was dealt than before, and that had to do with the run of very good starting pitching over an extended period of time by Crochet, Bello, and Gio, and most likely the record would have been even better if Devers was still on the team, and most likely also Devers would have made a difference if not a big difference against the Yankees in the postseason.

<sigh> And your recap has NEVER been accurate.

The Sox did pitch better as a team, with the team ERA at 3.91 before the trade to 3.51 after.  But more important regarding offense is the Sox scored 4.86 RPG with Devers and 4.84 RPG without him. 
 

Crichet (2.79 before/2.97 after) pitched identically before and after the trade.  Bello (3.42 before/3.05 after) was also consistent all year.

Giolito was a huge factor, but he missed most of ST and April and only started a handful of games before Devers was traded.

But the entire point was hitting isn’t the only way to win games.  And when it gets pointed out to you “the Sox won more games after reading away their best hitter”, your self-satisfying response is always “That’s different.  They pitched well.”  No, thats not different; that’s the f***ing point…

Posted
32 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Without holes in them.

H per AB with RISP for Red Sox in 2026 Losses;

2-14, 0-7, 1-3, 0-2, 1-7, 0-5, 5-11, 3-12, 1-6, 0-4, 0-6, 1-5, 0-7, 1-8, 0-1, 1-8, 0-3, 1-8, 1-8, 3-11

Shirley, other teams have similar failure in the clutch in games they lost, but in 16 of 20 Ls Boston has either one or zero hits with runners in scoring position. In those 16 games they are 8-for-80 with RISP -- or in basically half their games this season, the Red Sox' batting average with RISP is .100.

Boston's overall team batting average of .235 is actually tied for 8th in the league with two first-place teams in the Yankees and Guardians, plus the Angels.

Considering how utterly futile the bats have been when it matters, that must mean the Red Sox get a lot of hits when nobody cares (or when viewers get a snack, use the bathroom, or switch to Netflix).

No one is denying the Sox aren’t hitting.  The offense has been so bad, it’s distracted many folks from how bad they’re pitching.

Im saying the issue isn’t some missing superstar in the lineup.  Believe it or not , they have a better lineup than most teams on paper, but somehow these inferior teams are scoring more often.  
 

The Twins traded away half their team last July, and only added journeyman (not All Star) bats.  Yet somehow they’re a top ten team in scoring.  How? How do the Marlins - a team most people can’t name 3 starting players on - keep acting more than Boston?  Or the Pirates.  Or the White Sox.

(This is where people often chime in with “I don’t care about other teams!! I only care about the Red Sox!”  And then I have to say something snotty like “You clearly also don’t care about points, because you’re missing lots of them!”, which is often much nicer than what I’m thinking.)

None of these teams added an All Star bat or spent huge on free agency or hired Alex Bregman to talk over the pitching machine.  Theyre just doing something the Sox hitters aren’t - which is actually hitting. 

Sure the Sox have a couple younger players not living up to the hype. But Anthony is actually hitting the ball pretty well, and Narvaez?  I had low expectations here, but at some point we can at least call it a sophomore slump, a term normally only reserved for non-Sox players.

Durbin probably wasn’t the answer.  But he also isn’t the reason Duran, Story, Narvaez, etc.  aren’t hitting…

Posted
1 hour ago, notin said:

So you’re speaking for the players now?  Doubtful they look at each other the way fans look at them.  Very doubtful they treated Durbin as their cheap settlement when he walked through the door.

If the Sox were a team that “gave up” because of roster moves, please explain why the Sox were 37-36 with Devers last year and 52-37 after he was dealt..

Sure. They gave up because no significant talent was signed over the winter. You are underestimating their intelligence. Everyone knows what the team needed and didn’t get. You really think the players are that stupid?

Posted
5 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Sure. They gave up because no significant talent was signed over the winter. You are underestimating their intelligence. Everyone knows what the team needed and didn’t get. You really think the players are that stupid?

Clearly not as stupid as you think they are.

They saw the Sox add Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, and Ranger Suarez.  I’m sure they view those players as “significant talent” even if you don’t.

Heck some of them probably liked the additions of Durbin and IKF.  Some were probably glad the Sox didn’t add Schwarber/Alonso since it would cut into if not flat out remove their playing time.

To say the team just gave up because they didn’t sign the free agents you wanted is well beyond the most massive leap I’ve heard in a while.  

Don’t double down here.  Don’t try to support it.  Move on to the next theory…

Posted
4 minutes ago, notin said:

Im saying the issue isn’t some missing superstar in the lineup.

The owners and President Sham love statements like this to justify not paying market value for position player talent. And of course these Red Sox are so bad that it's almost too late for any one bat to save them. 

But a superstar can't hurt, and affects the opposition just by his presence. Managers and pitching coaches and pitchers and catchers and defenses all feel more pressure to get batters out if they know an All-Star slugger or hot masher is on double deck or triple deck or even quadruple deck.

This year Boston has nobody that foes fear or even respect (except Contreras if you plunk him in the wrong spot). Why was Anthony such a threat in the WBC, where he hit clutch homers off MLB pitchers? Answer: because he was surrounded by threats on Team USA.

The Yankees' batting average is identical to the Sox, but NY has one guy no one can stop thinking about. Houston won yesterday even though Alvarez went 0-for-5... but everyone was always wary about his spot coming up, and maybe not as concerned about others who wound up doing damage. 

Posted
29 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The owners and President Sham love statements like this to justify not paying market value for position player talent. And of course these Red Sox are so bad that it's almost too late for any one bat to save them. 

But a superstar can't hurt, and affects the opposition just by his presence. Managers and pitching coaches and pitchers and catchers and defenses all feel more pressure to get batters out if they know an All-Star slugger or hot masher is on double deck or triple deck or even quadruple deck.

This year Boston has nobody that foes fear or even respect (except Contreras if you plunk him in the wrong spot). Why was Anthony such a threat in the WBC, where he hit clutch homers off MLB pitchers? Answer: because he was surrounded by threats on Team USA.

The Yankees' batting average is identical to the Sox, but NY has one guy no one can stop thinking about. Houston won yesterday even though Alvarez went 0-for-5... but everyone was always wary about his spot coming up, and maybe not as concerned about others who wound up doing damage. 

Superstars can’t hurt?  Really? They can’t get hurt or underperform or sign contracts that keep them eating up 15-20% of the payroll until their mid-40s?  Exactly how did Sale help this team from 2020-2023?

If you’re going to throw around the “owners love fans like you” condescensions, I won’t apologize for not genuflecting at the Altar of Boras.  Ive said a million times free agency is PR. Because it is, and reactions I see like this do nothing but convince me how right I am.  

You have created a lot of romantic narratives about impacts from players that “can’t be measured” and all of them operate on the principle that players view each other how you view them.  And you’re hardly alone; Fred is trying to make the same points.

I am NEVER going to acknowledge the validity of anyone trying to tell me the mindset of an MLB player, except an MLB player.  Because that’s not factual information; it hovers in between supposition and fantasy.  Neither of us knows how some opposing player will react when facing a superstar.  My theory is - an entire range of reactions because very few sweeping generalizations are true.  In fact, I only believe one sweeping generalization regarding MLB players to be true - that all MLB players are superstitious.  But even that probably isn’t true. Although it’s closer than I realized.

I know Youre going to view tjis as some snobby, ******* answer.  Sorry,  but I’m not going to speak for anyone else (except apparently you in this statement.  Irony.) and I’m not going to take any response seriously that involve anyone doing it.  In fact, I’ll probably continue to call people out for it.  I do have a reputation to maintain.

So simple question - is Jarren Duran a superstar?

Posted
40 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

M Why was Anthony such a threat in the WBC, where he hit clutch homers off MLB pitchers? Answer: because he was surrounded by threats on Team USA.

 

He hit one HR off an MLB pitcher - Gregory Soto.  And he hit one other home run off some guy named Jesus Cruz.  He only hit 2.

These “facts” probably need verification; I’m working off memory here.

Anthony did have a great WBC, with an OPS of .920 for the tournament and the bulk of pitching he faced (Jesus Cruz notwithstanding) was actual MLB pitching.  But to say this was only because he was in an All Star lineup is premature, especially since last year Anthony started out slowly for about 100-125 PAs, and then went on a tear with a .945 OPS the rest of the way until his injury.  So it’s not like we haven’t seen it before…

Posted
1 hour ago, notin said:

Clearly not as stupid as you think they are.

They saw the Sox add Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, and Ranger Suarez.  I’m sure they view those players as “significant talent” even if you don’t.

Heck some of them probably liked the additions of Durbin and IKF.  Some were probably glad the Sox didn’t add Schwarber/Alonso since it would cut into if not flat out remove their playing time.

To say the team just gave up because they didn’t sign the free agents you wanted is well beyond the most massive leap I’ve heard in a while.  

Don’t double down here.  Don’t try to support it.  Move on to the next theory…

I think I made my point. It’s valid.

I remember a couple of years ago when the flops were at the trade deadline and I read an interview with one of the players who said “everyone knows what this team needs”. They didn’t get the talent they needed then either. I am quite sure that has an adverse effect on the psychology of the players. It says that management doesn’t believe in them. The result is that the players just go through the motions-which is what they are doing now.

Posted
12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The budget was not limitless. He did fine with what he was given.

Obviously that’s not true. They are in last place and very near the bottom in runs scored and OPS. 
BresLOW failed miserably and the fans will have to put up with watching the FLOPS again instead of the SOX.

Posted
16 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Obviously that’s not true. They are in last place and very near the bottom in runs scored and OPS. 

So, it's impossible that your winter moves were a plus, but the team still plays worse?

It's not obvious.

We agree, he left a gaping hole on a power bat, but you'd have been fine with his winter moves had he signed Alonso and all his actual moves, right?

We coulda signed Alonso & Bregman plus not changed any other moves except the Durbin trade, and you'd have been thrilled. (We might have one more win.) Would it have been "obvious" he was a failure had this happened, too?

If yes, then your ideas were failures, too.

Posted
22 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I think I made my point. It’s valid.

I remember a couple of years ago when the flops were at the trade deadline and I read an interview with one of the players who said “everyone knows what this team needs”. They didn’t get the talent they needed then either. I am quite sure that has an adverse effect on the psychology of the players. It says that management doesn’t believe in them. The result is that the players just go through the motions-which is what they are doing now.

And at that deadline, the Sox acquired nothing.  This off-season, they brought in Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Caleb Durbin and Ranger Suarez, plus others.  That’s not the same as an 11th hour trade for INF Luis Urias with hopes it bolsters the rotation…

Posted
26 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I think I made my point. It’s valid.

I remember a couple of years ago when the flops were at the trade deadline and I read an interview with one of the players who said “everyone knows what this team needs”. They didn’t get the talent they needed then either. I am quite sure that has an adverse effect on the psychology of the players. It says that management doesn’t believe in them. The result is that the players just go through the motions-which is what they are doing now.

As usual spot on Fred. Yes I remember when Raffy said everyone knows what this team needs at the trade deadline. I’m pretty sure there were many others thinking it, and probably even Cora, and yes there is no doubt IMO that it does have a psychological effect on the players just as it does the fans. 👍

Posted
10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, it's impossible that your winter moves were a plus, but the team still plays worse?

It's not obvious.

We agree, he left a gaping hole on a power bat, but you'd have been fine with his winter moves had he signed Alonso and all his actual moves, right?

We coulda signed Alonso & Bregman plus not changed any other moves except the Durbin trade, and you'd have been thrilled. (We might have one more win.) Would it have been "obvious" he was a failure had this happened, too?

If yes, then your ideas were failures, too.

So far I would say Fred has been right more than ANYONE on here. Playoffs? Did someone say playoffs?🙈

Posted
1 hour ago, notin said:

You have created a lot of romantic narratives about impacts from players that “can’t be measured” and all of them operate on the principle that players view each other how you view them.  

I am NEVER going to acknowledge the validity of anyone trying to tell me the mindset of an MLB player, except an MLB player.  Because that’s not factual information; it hovers in between supposition and fantasy.  Neither of us knows how some opposing player will react when facing a superstar.

Gotta give you credit -- no one puts as much time and effort arguing against other posters' opinions and points of views on a forum where people just wanna talk Sox.

I enjoy offering takes that others may not have considered, and reading takes that I have not considered, while trying to look at all sides of issues and topics of discussion that we are discussing.

When I suggest the way players think I am not necessarily stating only MLB players (especially today's big leaguers) -- but generalizations from experience about baseball players at levels beyond Little League and high school. I am blessed to have been able to play in competitive hardball leagues for half a century and I also coached for 15 of those. I played and coached with and against guys who were major leaguers and others who went on to become major leaguers. Spent long bus rides with fellow players and coaches to games, ate soggy Blimpies, and talked ball... flew cross country to play in national tournaments, spent nights in hotels, restaurants, bars, and talked ball. 

Sorry if I offended you with what seem like assumptions about the thoughts of baseball players that I've known all my life.

Posted
6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

So far I would say Fred has been right more than ANYONE on here. Playoffs? Did someone say playoffs?🙈

I agree with Fred a lot.

Posted
2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Gotta give you credit -- no one puts as much time and effort arguing against other posters' opinions and points of views on a forum where people just wanna talk Sox.

I enjoy offering takes that others may not have considered, and reading takes that I have not considered, while trying to look at all sides of issues and topics of discussion that we are discussing.

When I suggest the way players think I am not necessarily stating only MLB players (especially today's big leaguers) -- but generalizations from experience about baseball players at levels beyond Little League and high school. I am blessed to have been able to play in competitive hardball leagues for half a century and I also coached for 15 of those. I played and coached with and against guys who were major leaguers and others who went on to become major leaguers. Spent long bus rides with fellow players and coaches to games, ate soggy Blimpies, and talked ball... flew cross country to play in national tournaments, spent nights in hotels, restaurants, bars, and talked ball. 

Sorry if I offended you with what seem like assumptions about the thoughts of baseball players that I've known all my life.

Excellent post! 👏

Posted
9 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Excellent post! 👏

Yes, it was. GG is a great poster and offers unique and sometimes funny and entertaining insights. I don't always agree, but he makes sense and offers supporting ideas when challenged.

Posted
1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Gotta give you credit -- no one puts as much time and effort arguing against other posters' opinions and points of views on a forum where people just wanna talk Sox.

I enjoy offering takes that others may not have considered, and reading takes that I have not considered, while trying to look at all sides of issues and topics of discussion that we are discussing.

When I suggest the way players think I am not necessarily stating only MLB players (especially today's big leaguers) -- but generalizations from experience about baseball players at levels beyond Little League and high school. I am blessed to have been able to play in competitive hardball leagues for half a century and I also coached for 15 of those. I played and coached with and against guys who were major leaguers and others who went on to become major leaguers. Spent long bus rides with fellow players and coaches to games, ate soggy Blimpies, and talked ball... flew cross country to play in national tournaments, spent nights in hotels, restaurants, bars, and talked ball. 

Sorry if I offended you with what seem like assumptions about the thoughts of baseball players that I've known all my life.

I’ve played baseball too, stopping just before college.

I cannot draw a parallel between the mindset of high school players and MLB players.  It just isn’t there.  In one scenario, it’s a school activity; in the other it’s a career, and a potentially lucrative one.   

Ive posted before that everyone in MLB is better at baseball than any of us are at anything.  To me, this seems obvious.  You make an MLB roster, you’re likely to be one of the best 780 baseball players in the world, or at a minimum not far outside that range.  Personally, the concept of being one of the top 780 people in the world at ANYTHING seems foreign to me.  So in the same way that I don’t think that just because I have played chess means I understand what it’s like to be Magnus Carlsson, I don’t believe my baseball experiences are relatable to MLB players who are not only among the best in the world, but also well aware of it.

I was also extremely surprised how many folks were deeply offended when told they’re not as good at anything as say, IKF is at baseball.  I’m hoping they assumed I meant MLB and it was a misunderstanding.  But I suppose it’s possible although extraordinarily unlikely they were all among the top 780 people in the world at some arcane activity…
 

 

Posted
1 hour ago, Old Red said:

So far I would say Fred has been right more than ANYONE on here. Playoffs? Did someone say playoffs?🙈

Fred is right the offense is bad.  He is wrong for thinking IKF is the problem and that Henry chose the utility infielder over other power bats.  Fred is right that the Sox ranked 23rd in percentage of revenue spent on payroll per one source.  But that’s misleading.  Many contenders were similarly ranged.  The Cubs, for example, were 22nd.  Also that team made the post-season and that data is officially outdated.    We do not know what percentage of revenue went to payroll simply because they have not made all their revenue just yet.  

Fred is wrong for repeatedly insisting the Sox did nothing this off-season.  They clearly made lots of moves.  His issue appears to be he had a few very specific players in mind, and the Sox grabbed none of them.  The fact that he is now comparing the past off-season to trade deadlines where the Sox did make no or close to no moves further proves this point…

Posted
4 hours ago, notin said:

No one is denying the Sox aren’t hitting.  The offense has been so bad, it’s distracted many folks from how bad they’re pitching.

I try to post the numbers occasionally, but I doubt anyone looks.  If Crochet and Bello pitched to the same ERA as last year, the RS would be 4th in MLB in ERA.

I recently did the same thing with the hitting.  Had Story, Anthony and Duran had the same OPS as last year, we'd be maybe 8th in OPS.

Posted
1 hour ago, notin said:

I’ve played baseball too, stopping just before college.

I cannot draw a parallel between the mindset of high school players and MLB players.  It just isn’t there.  In one scenario, it’s a school activity; in the other it’s a career, and a potentially lucrative one.   

Ive posted before that everyone in MLB is better at baseball than any of us are at anything.  To me, this seems obvious.  You make an MLB roster, you’re likely to be one of the best 780 baseball players in the world, or at a minimum not far outside that range.  Personally, the concept of being one of the top 780 people in the world at ANYTHING seems foreign to me.  So in the same way that I don’t think that just because I have played chess means I understand what it’s like to be Magnus Carlsson, I don’t believe my baseball experiences are relatable to MLB players who are not only among the best in the world, but also well aware of it.

I was also extremely surprised how many folks were deeply offended when told they’re not as good at anything as say, IKF is at baseball.  I’m hoping they assumed I meant MLB and it was a misunderstanding.  But I suppose it’s possible although extraordinarily unlikely they were all among the top 780 people in the world at some arcane activity…
 

 

Hey, I might be one of the 780 best accountants in the world.  So might mvp78.  So might Joe Brady.  But guess what, there are no accounting leagues.

Now I can state with a lot of confidence that I'm not one of the 780 most highly paid accountants in the world...

Posted
13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Now I can state with a lot of confidence that I'm not one of the 780 most highly paid accountants in the world...

You'll never get rich, but there are always accounting jobs out there.

Posted
25 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Hey, I might be one of the 780 best accountants in the world.  So might mvp78.  So might Joe Brady.  But guess what, there are no accounting leagues.

Now I can state with a lot of confidence that I'm not one of the 780 most highly paid accountants in the world...

The second fact probably justifies the first.

There are no engined leagues either but the thought of whether or not I’m Joe of the best 780 engineers in the world never even entered my mind until I typed this sentence…

Posted
1 hour ago, notin said:

Fred is right the offense is bad.  He is wrong for thinking IKF is the problem and that Henry chose the utility infielder over other power bats.  Fred is right that the Sox ranked 23rd in percentage of revenue spent on payroll per one source.  But that’s misleading.  Many contenders were similarly ranged.  The Cubs, for example, were 22nd.  Also that team made the post-season and that data is officially outdated.    We do not know what percentage of revenue went to payroll simply because they have not made all their revenue just yet.  

Fred is wrong for repeatedly insisting the Sox did nothing this off-season.  They clearly made lots of moves.  His issue appears to be he had a few very specific players in mind, and the Sox grabbed none of them.  The fact that he is now comparing the past off-season to trade deadlines where the Sox did make no or close to no moves further proves this point…

I don’t care what the Cubs do or what any other team does. We suck. That’s what I care about. Breslow failed to secure top flight offensive talent, signing bums like IKF and Durbin and what’s-his-name. I am quite sure that’s demoralizing to the players who want to play baseball in October and realize that isn’t going to happen with the bums BresLOW added. I am quite sure that’s part of why some players are underperforming. It’s a matter of “why should I bust my ass if management isn’t supporting the team…..

Posted
Just now, FredLynn said:

I don’t care what the Cubs do or what any other team does. 

You certainly cared every time you posted where the Sox ranked in percentage of revenue spent.  I can spot the difference between “not caring about” and “don’t want to hear about..”

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