Spring Training game thread: Week of Feb 21

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Kimmi said:

I am not a fan of these things either.  I guess it's become readily acceptable behavior, but back in the day, you might expect a good beaning in your next at bat after showboating.  

to me, while I wouldn't admire a short HR, I don't care.  But it has to be a real shot.  Not some rinky-dink 360 footer.  Everyone gets one of those.  If you hit it 450 feet, then I don't care.

[JoeBrady]

59 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

$28M for the 2 arb years and $20M for the extra year? So... $48M/3?

So long as we get 1-2 option years.  I think one of the really big changes, thanks to Skubal, that it is going to become standard to base your year 3 arb on existing contracts, and less on player history.  Duran had a higher bWAR than Tucker, last year, over the past two years, and over the past three years.  And Tucker got $60M per for his efforts.

If Duran has 2 good years (not even great years), I don't care to speculate what that might be worth.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That was the highlight point for me.  He looked really good.  I thought Bennett looked good.  Oviedo is  one big dude.

Even Uberstine looked good, to me.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

So long as we get 1-2 option years.  I think one of the really big changes, thanks to Skubal, that it is going to become standard to base your year 3 arb on existing contracts, and less on player history.  Duran had a higher bWAR than Tucker, last year, over the past two years, and over the past three years.  And Tucker got $60M per for his efforts.

If Duran has 2 good years (not even great years), I don't care to speculate what that might be worth.

The arb numbers may not look at WAR.

Club option years would be fine.

[JoeBrady]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The arb numbers may not look at WAR.

Using WAR as a placeholder.  Over the past three years:

Player A 75 2B, 9 3B, 74 HR, (158 xbh), 244 runs, 234 RBIs

Player B 123 2B, 39 3B, 45 HR, (197 xbh), 243 runs, 199 RBIs

Everyone will say that Tuckers, but I can make a pretty good case that it's close.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Using WAR as a placeholder.  Over the past three years:

Player A 75 2B, 9 3B, 74 HR, (158 xbh), 244 runs, 234 RBIs

Player B 123 2B, 39 3B, 45 HR, (197 xbh), 243 runs, 199 RBIs

Everyone will say that Tuckers, but I can make a pretty good case that it's close.

Tuckers is better on D and plays a tougher OF position.

I do agree, the numbers look pretty close.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Using WAR as a placeholder.  Over the past three years:

Player A 75 2B, 9 3B, 74 HR, (158 xbh), 244 runs, 234 RBIs

Player B 123 2B, 39 3B, 45 HR, (197 xbh), 243 runs, 199 RBIs

Everyone will say that Tuckers, but I can make a pretty good case that it's close.

They both are pretty close in age, but Tucker has produced for twice as many years as Duran, so he seems like more of a sure bet.

The three year sample size matches up perfectly with Duran's best sample size to chose, but even using that, here are some other numbers:

Lowest OPS in a season: .841 Tucker and Duran .774

3 yr OBP: .380 Tucker/.339 Duran

3 yr SLG: .511 Tucker/.471 Duran

3 yr OPS+: 150 Tucker/123 Duran

These numbers show a more stark differential.

 

 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Tuckers is better on D and plays a tougher OF position.

If/when Duran hires me as his agent, I'd argue just the opposite.  I'd say that Duran is the 2nd best CF in BB, but only gets relegated to LF because the RS have a platinum level CF in Ceddanne.  And no, it doesn't have to be true, it only has to be possible.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

If/when Duran hires me as his agent, I'd argue just the opposite.  I'd say that Duran is the 2nd best CF in BB, but only gets relegated to LF because the RS have a platinum level CF in Ceddanne.  And no, it doesn't have to be true, it only has to be possible.

Gms would not be fooled.

Duran would not likely play that well on defense in CF, if given a chance.

Tucker is a better defender.

Tucker has a way better OBP, SLG and OPS+. It's not even close. And, that's cherry-picking the sample size to match with Duran's best sample.

[Duran Is The Man]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Gms would not be fooled.

Duran would not likely play that well on defense in CF, if given a chance.

Tucker is a better defender.

Tucker has a way better OBP, SLG and OPS+. It's not even close. And, that's cherry-picking the sample size to match with Duran's best sample.

Duran's bWAR the last 3 years: 15.6

Tucker's bWAR the last 3 years: 14.8 

[alsoason]

The Sox have a gem in the  stud Guerrero, big boy , Oviedo needs to trust his stuff, i dislike nibblers

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

If/when Duran hires me as his agent, I'd argue just the opposite.  I'd say that Duran is the 2nd best CF in BB, 

He didn't show it last season.

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Gms would not be fooled.

We already know how other GM's see Duran. If they valued him highly, he would have been traded. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's ok, yesterday the president said he has "high hopes for this offense."

(hitting the bong again)

[mvp 78]

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

 

Durbin clean-up? AC's doing the best he can for short people...

Caleb may have heard of Mel Ott, the first NL batter to reach 500 home runs and the NL career record-holder for 20 years before Willie Mays took the lead in the 1960s. 

Ott was listed at 5-9, 170 but some descriptions said he was 5-7. The Polo Grounds in New York where the lefty played home games had flag poles 258 feet to right and 279 feet to left (the fence in center was 483 feet from the plate).

So it's no surprise that Mel hit 323 of his 511 HRs (63%) at home. But he was still pretty good -- career OPS in 1,367 home games: .979... 1,363 road games: .919.

[drewski6]

15 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

to me, while I wouldn't admire a short HR, I don't care.  But it has to be a real shot.  Not some rinky-dink 360 footer.  Everyone gets one of those.  If you hit it 450 feet, then I don't care.

It depends on the pitch for me.  If you got a cement mix slider that didnt slide and you turned on it, Ill gladly take the runs.  IF you got the bat head to a tough location and then muscled it out, especially on a 2 strike count, thats beauty.

[drewski6]

But I generally want to seem more celebrating and snarl vs less.  Id like to see some competitive aggression come back. Not from fans, I hate that s***.  Like fighting in the stands.  Because I dont ever want someone to feel like they cant root for their team.  I wore a RS cap to an Oakland raiders game in Oak and it was a little dicey.  Some guys were ribbing me in a friendly way, which I liked.  I bought a dude a beer who accosted me, then apologized for coming too strong (he was fine).  There were a couple dudes that I had to just walk away from cuz they had "I have a knife on me" eyes.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

We already know how other GM's see Duran. If they valued him highly, he would have been traded. 

Or the Red Sox set the asking price much higher than you think.

[drewski6]

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

 

I kind of like it.  Not like for an opening day lineup, but for a fun springday.

[drewski6]

21 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Durbin clean-up? AC's doing the best he can for short people...

Caleb may have heard of Mel Ott, the first NL batter to reach 500 home runs and the NL career record-holder for 20 years before Willie Mays took the lead in the 1960s. 

Ott was listed at 5-9, 170 but some descriptions said he was 5-7. The Polo Grounds in New York where the lefty played home games had flag poles 258 feet to right and 279 feet to left (the fence in center was 483 feet from the plate).

So it's no surprise that Mel hit 323 of his 511 HRs (63%) at home. But he was still pretty good -- career OPS in 1,367 home games: .979... 1,363 road games: .919.

You can play in that park in the video game and you can hit a home run on a foul pop up.  Its fun.

[drewski6]

You can also turn on legends and draft your franchise.  I had Bob Feller, that was fun.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

13 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

You can play in that park in the video game and you can hit a home run on a foul pop up.  Its fun.

My son plays it in all those classic ballparks. He thinks the Polo Grounds invented pull-hitters. The horses must have hated running out of room down the lines though...

[mvp 78]

None of these games are being played in the Polo Grounds or Ebbets Field contrary to popular reports. 

[mvp 78]

Also, not tv today so they might as well be playing at the Polo Grounds. 

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Duran's bWAR the last 3 years: 15.6

Tucker's bWAR the last 3 years: 14.8 

Yes. I am aware or this, as well as almost identical fWARs over Duran's best chosen sample size. (Tucker 13.6>13.2)

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

We already know how other GM's see Duran. If they valued him highly, he would have been traded. 

Maybe. Maybe it's Brez who values him "too highly" or just right.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe. Maybe it's Brez who values him "too highly" or just right.

Isn't that just the other side of the coin? 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Isn't that just the other side of the coin? 

In a way, yes. The point about "just right" is not.

Maybe Brez is right- maybe not.

Some think trading him after 2024 would have gotten peak value for him. 

I value Duran very highly, but I have suggested more Duran trades on BTV than any other Sox player, and that includes Yoshida and the constant throw-in- DHam.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

In a way, yes. The point about "just right" is not.

IDK what you mean about "just right." All I said was "if other GM's valued him highly, Duran would have been traded" because the Red Sox clearly value him highly. Breslow clearly values him higher than other GM's do.