Sox to acquire Sonny Gray

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

If you only look at ERA, and that's not a bad choice, yes, he's not a 2 or maybe even a 3.

If you look at FIP, xFIP, K%, BB% and some other numbers, he looks like a #1 or 2.

I think 4/5 is harsh. 2/3 is about right. Maybe low side of 2, if kinda pusing it, but high side of 3 is not.

IP count for value, too.

Even in 2025, he was 20th in fWAR out of every SP'er in MLB, That rates as a #1.

I could live with a #3-4. We still need a better SP.

[Larry Cook]

Rangers fans speculating what we will give them for seiger!  They think Anthony and tolle for seiger is a fair trade 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, FredLynn said:

I could live with a #3-4. We still need a better SP.

I certainly agree we coulda-shoulda done better for a #2.

I seriously doubt we add a #2, now.

We have to make it up with 2 megabopper bats,

[FredLynn]

2 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Rangers fans speculating what we will give them for seiger!  They think Anthony and tolle for seiger is a fair trade 

Anthony isn’t going anywhere 

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Yes. As usual you are missing something. It is this: we have a bunch of #3-5 SPs. Where's our #2? I never said I objected to signing Gray. I would object if management tries to pass him off as a capable #2.

Getting Sonny Gray does nothing to address our major needs.

We needed three SPs.  That's a major need.  I'd love a #2, or better yet, another #1.  But when you only have 2 SPs, you have a major need for pitching.

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Rangers fans speculating what we will give them for seiger!  They think Anthony and tolle for seiger is a fair trade 

They should hand Seager away for almost free. He's got 6 years left!

I wouldn't give Tolle, Masa & Hicks for him, unless they added cash for the last 4 years after Masa and Hicks deals end.

[moonslav59]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

Getting Sonny Gray does nothing to address our major needs.

We needed three SPs.  That's a major need.  I'd love a #2, or better yet, another #1.  But when you only have 2 SPs, you have a major need for pitching.

We have over 10 SP'ers. The problem is 6-7 have serious questions.

We need a #2 and the rest would have been okay. We do not need two #3's, but that might be all we might get. (I doubt we add another SP'er, but maybe someone like Gore or Alcantara?)

1. Crochet

3/4: Bello & Gray

4/5: Sandoval, Crawford

5/6: Harrison, Dobbins, Early, Tolle

That's 9 already....

6/7: Perales, Criswell

7/8/9: Uberstine, Drohan

Okay, 10 might be pushing it, but these 6-9's might be 4-6's on many teams.

Our 5/6 would be 4/5's on most teams.

Our 3-5's might be 2's and 3's on many teams.

We needed a co-ace and 2 big bats. Spending $21M on a non #2 seems overboard, but Cease just got $26M x 7, so....

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, notin said:

Crawford and Dobbins…

Crawford led the league in losses in 2024, finished the year with a 6.59 ERA in the second half, and missed 2025.  He's not an option.  And it's not to say that any of our #6/7/8/9 guys couldn't develop.  But starting the year with 2 question marks in your rotation is going to make it a long season.

[JoeBrady]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

(I doubt we add another SP'er, but maybe someone like Gore or Alcantara?)

I'd be real happy with Alcantara.  That would give us a 1-4 that could compete with anyone.  After that, throw out the 5-slot to the best pitcher coming out of ST.

[FredLynn]

45 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Getting Sonny Gray does nothing to address our major needs.

We needed three SPs.  That's a major need.  I'd love a #2, or better yet, another #1.  But when you only have 2 SPs, you have a major need for pitching.

Mediocre pitchers are much easier to find than good ones. Once again management chose a mediocre pitcher who they intend to pass off as a good one. I’ve seen this movie before. We all have. 
You want to make a gentleman’s wager that they now won’t sign a bona fide #2 SP to slot in below the ace?

And we had at least five SP before Gray. Crochet, Bello, Crawford, Early, and Tolle. Maybe I missed one. 

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd be real happy with Alcantara.  That would give us a 1-4 that could compete with anyone.  After that, throw out the 5-slot to the best pitcher coming out of ST.

I'm not thrilled with Gray as an only addition to the rotation.

I do think I disagree with your take on the rest of the rotation. I would prefer more quality than quantity, but decent/promising quantity is not a bad thing. I think we have Crochet, Bello and Gray who are solid SP'er expected to start 28-33 games and go 160+ IP.

We should be able to fill the 4 & 5 slots with a couple decent pitchers. Sure, we can scour the recent trends, injury reports and selected sample sizes of poor pitching, but we all know projecting what we'll get from these guys is near impossible. I'm worried that we may have to go through 6-7 pitchers to finally find the two that do well enough, and by then, we've lost 10-15 more games than we might have had we found the right two in the first week of the season.

I can find very nice stretches in the careers of Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins and Criswell. Some, like Criswell and Dobbins are their most recent starts. Sandy & Crawfish were from more distant pasts. Then, we have 3-4 promising young guys like Harrison, Early, Tolle and Perales. That's 8 guys for 2 slots.

No doubt, I'd love to have another solid SP'er, but I think we are running with what we have, now. Of course, if we trade Crawford and Harrison in a package for a bat (maybe with Duran and or Campbell,) then maybe we have another SP deal in mind- like Alcantara, Gore or M Keller. I doubt we'll see Ryan or Lodolo or better.

Get us KMarte and Alonso and I can live with Sonny Gray and nobody else.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Mediocre pitchers are much easier to find than good ones. Once again management chose a mediocre pitcher who they intend to pass off as a good one. I’ve seen this movie before. We all have. 
You want to make a gentleman’s wager that they now won’t sign a bona fide #2 SP to slot in below the ace?

And we had at least five SP before Gray. Crochet, Bello, Crawford, Early, and Tolle. Maybe I missed one. 

Gray will likely finish the 2026 2nd or 3rd in IP on the Sox.

In terms of WAR, he may finish anywhere from #2 to #5 or 6.

[UtahSox]

59 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They should hand Seager away for almost free. He's got 6 years left!

I wouldn't give Tolle, Masa & Hicks for him, unless they added cash for the last 4 years after Masa and Hicks deals end.

Yes you would and should…. Seager is money. 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Yes you would and should…. Seager is money. 

I loved Bob Seager.

Seriously, though, Seager is still really good, when healthy. He'd be a nice get and with Story at 2B, we'd be better.

The guy turns 32 in April. He'll turn 37 in his last year of his contract.

We can't get JH to signing anyone to more than 5 years, except Story, but he was "only" $140M. We'd need some sore of money balance to even start talks on a trade. Maybe TEX takes Masa and leaves the back-end for us to pay fully. I'm just not sure Brez and JH want that burden all the way to the end of 2031.

It's hard to know what TEX wants, and if they are in full rebuild mode, maybe they don't need ML ready prospects like most teams want.

Would you do Masa, Hicks, Campbell and DHam for Seager and no future cash?

[FredLynn]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Gray will likely finish the 2026 2nd or 3rd in IP on the Sox.

In terms of WAR, he may finish anywhere from #2 to #5 or 6.

Finishing with a lot of below average IP isn’t the way to build a contender. We had two primary needs to compete for a ring: a very good SP and a power hitting IF. 
We got a mediocre SP. Typical.

[notin]

10 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Crawford led the league in losses in 2024, finished the year with a 6.59 ERA in the second half, and missed 2025.  He's not an option.  And it's not to say that any of our #6/7/8/9 guys couldn't develop.  But starting the year with 2 question marks in your rotation is going to make it a long season.

The Sox have 12 starting pitchers on the 40 man roster, not counting Houck or Criswell.  They have the depth to handle question marks.

Im willing to bet Crawford is an option

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Finishing with a lot of below average IP isn’t the way to build a contender. We had two primary needs to compete for a ring: a very good SP and a power hitting IF. 
We got a mediocre SP. Typical.

I wouldn't call Sonny Gray mediocre. He wasn't an All-Star last year, but he has been three times, when he also finished 2nd, 3rd and 7th in Cy Young voting. That's something nobody on the current Red Sox pitching staff has accomplished.

In 2025 Gray won more games and threw more innings than any Red Sox but Crochet, and led the NL in K/BB%. If he can return to the AL East and repeat what he did for a crappy Cardinals team, we'll take it.

I'd like Breslow to also add Freddy Peralta, but know it will cost either Early or Tolle or both. Milwaukee doesn't mess around when making trades. 

It's quite possible Boston's front office believes that Early or Tolle -- at minimum wage -- could develop into the solid #2 starter we need by 2027 (which they also might deem more reasonable as a season to really go for it).

[notin]

9 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Mediocre pitchers are much easier to find than good ones. Once again management chose a mediocre pitcher who they intend to pass off as a good one. I’ve seen this movie before. We all have. 
You want to make a gentleman’s wager that they now won’t sign a bona fide #2 SP to slot in below the ace?

And we had at least five SP before Gray. Crochet, Bello, Crawford, Early, and Tolle. Maybe I missed one. 

Well at least they didn’t saddle us with a mediocre SP for 7 years like Toronto did with Dylan Cease and his 4.55 ERA…

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Finishing with a lot of below average IP isn’t the way to build a contender. We had two primary needs to compete for a ring: a very good SP and a power hitting IF. 
We got a mediocre SP. Typical.

I'm not happy with thinking he meets the solid #2SP'er role, either. That was an essential priority in my mind.

Yes, he was technically below average in ERA, and ERA, ERA+ and ERA- are all good measures of a SP'er's skill level. I'm not saying you are wrong. He does have other measures that say he did better than his ERA indicated, but I see that as maybe bringing him from a mid 3 SP'er to maybe a high 3 or low 2, at best.

Some see him as a 4/5, and I think you started off saying that. Again, I get your position and understand your frustration with these continued one and done deals based more on hopes or promises than actual recent success.

I'm afraid this is it with the rotation, unless something drops in our laps, or we deal 2-3 pitchers to upgrade our offense, and then add another SP'er. (Doubtful.)

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I wouldn't call Sonny Gray mediocre. He wasn't an All-Star last year, but he has been three times, when he also finished 2nd, 3rd and 7th in Cy Young voting. That's something nobody on the current Red Sox pitching staff has accomplished.

While I agree, his ERA, ERA+ and ERA- are all just below the league average and league SP'er average ERA numbers.

I've never used those stats as the be all- end all, but they are significant indicators of mediocrity. Then, he's 36.

[notin]

11 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Anthony isn’t going anywhere 

Doubtful Seager is either…

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Well at least they didn’t saddle us with a mediocre SP for 7 years like Toronto did with Dylan Cease and his 4.55 ERA…

Not signing another mediocre pitcher is no justification for signing the mediocre pitcher they signed and apparently are going to pass off as our #2. They aren’t fooling anyone. They have money and prospects to fulfill what anyone with half a brain knows we need to compete for a ring. Instead Henry is pissing away this window of opportunity. My guess is that our other primary need will likewise be ignored and some other dumpster dive player will be passed off as the solution to that as well. This is a very poorly run team.

[FredLynn]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Doubtful Seager is either…

We aren’t getting Seager or Alonso or anyone else of significance. Maybe Bregman-but he’s hurt a lot and is more of a complimentary piece than a real first rate power hitter now.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

Doubtful Seager is either…

Depends on how much TEX offers to pay.

[notin]

14 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Not signing another mediocre pitcher is no justification for signing the mediocre pitcher they signed and apparently are going to pass off as our #2. They aren’t fooling anyone. They have money and prospects to fulfill what anyone with half a brain knows we need to compete for a ring. Instead Henry is pissing away this window of opportunity. My guess is that our other primary need will likewise be ignored and some other dumpster dive player will be passed off as the solution to that as well. This is a very poorly run team.

So you didn’t question the hyperbolic implication that Dylan Cease was a mediocre pitcher?

I can’t decide if you have either unrealistic standards or just complain about every Sox move that doesn’t involve a perennial All Star.  So let’s start with the basics - what exactly is a “#2 starter”?    I ask this a lot; very few answer…

[Hitch]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

So you didn’t question the hyperbolic implication that Dylan Cease was a mediocre pitcher?

I can’t decide if you have either unrealistic standards or just complain about every Sox move that doesn’t involve a perennial All Star.  So let’s start with the basics - what exactly is a “#2 starter”?    I ask this a lot; very few answer…

Have you not met Fred? I'll give you a hint - it's option 2.

Never met a more pessimistic, negative, downright grumpy fan in all my life. 

[notin]

11 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Have you not met Fred? I'll give you a hint - it's option 2.

Never met a more pessimistic, negative, downright grumpy fan in all my life. 

I’ve seen worse, including one with a similar name.  And one back on another site with Bigfoot in his name who ranted incessantly about how Theo “Guitar Boy” Epstein had ruined the Sox, and he kept this going through the 2007 World Series.  I’m hoping he was a casual fan with a satirical alter ego…

[FredLynn]

45 minutes ago, notin said:

So you didn’t question the hyperbolic implication that Dylan Cease was a mediocre pitcher?

I can’t decide if you have either unrealistic standards or just complain about every Sox move that doesn’t involve a perennial All Star.  So let’s start with the basics - what exactly is a “#2 starter”?    I ask this a lot; very few answer…

A #2 SP is a pitcher who is very good fairly consistently but not as good as a #1 or an ace. 
Put another way a #2 SP is what Gray is not. 
 

[notin]

25 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

A #2 SP is a pitcher who is very good fairly consistently but not as good as a #1 or an ace. 
Put another way a #2 SP is what Gray is not. 
 

That’s about as vague a definition as can be.  I mean, I do at least give you credit for answering.

Gray was 7th in MLB in xFIP last year, trailing only Crochet, Skubal, Cristopher Sánchez, Logan Webb, Skenes, and Yamamoto.  That’s not “fairly good” very consistently?  Are only the top 6 considered #2 or better?

The more I look at Gray, the better I realize he is…

[FredLynn]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

That’s about as vague a definition as can be.  I mean, I do at least give you credit for answering.

Gray was 7th in MLB in xFIP last year, trailing only Crochet, Skubal, Cristopher Sánchez, Logan Webb, Skenes, and Yamamoto.  That’s not “fairly good” very consistently?  Are only the top 6 considered #2 or better?

The more I look at Gray, the better I realize he is…

His ERA+, my go to stat for pitchers, was below league average. That makes him a typical dumpster dive type pitcher the Sox relish. Cheap reclamation projects. I’m looking at him as a 3-4 SP. The team has money and prospects. Why not go all in and sign a real #2 and a real RHH power hitter? This would have been the year for it. Instead it’s just more of the same. 
What do you think the chances of fulfilling our other pressing need is?