Predicting LT payroll

[notin]

20 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Bichette is two years older but has played in almost 500 more games.  He's also put up career WAR of 20 compared to Casas 2.2

Bichette has played the full season 3 out of the 4 years and still managed more games than Casas has in 75% of his MLB career in 2024.

I'd be much more concerned with Casas than Bichette

Bichette did end last season with some lingering injuries.

And Casas carries less risk because he won’t tie up $30mill or so if he gets hurt.  
 

I do find it odd folks keep insisting the Sox need to replace Devers and Duran/Abreu but never acknowledge that Casas and Roman Anthony should come back…

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Bichette did end last season with some lingering injuries.

And Casas carries less risk because he won’t tie up $30mill or so if he gets hurt.  
 

I do find it odd folks keep insisting the Sox need to replace Devers and Duran/Abreu but never acknowledge that Casas and Roman Anthony should come back…

I find it odd comparing Casas to Bichette and putting Casas in the same sentence as Anthony. 

I like Casas, I really do, I hope he's a legit middle of the order bat and finally stays healthy.  But he's literally never given us much more than 1/2 a season. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Bichette did end last season with some lingering injuries.

And Casas carries less risk because he won’t tie up $30mill or so if he gets hurt.  
 

I do find it odd folks keep insisting the Sox need to replace Devers and Duran/Abreu but never acknowledge that Casas and Roman Anthony should come back…

Casas may come back, but it may be a much lesser Casas. He's had a significant amount of injuries already and relying him on anything going forward seems foolhardy. 

Is the idea that Anthony replaces Devers? Weren't they supposed to use the Devers money to bring people in? 

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I find it odd comparing Casas to Bichette and putting Casas in the same sentence as Anthony. 

I like Casas, I really do, I hope he's a legit middle of the order bat and finally stays healthy.  But he's literally never given us much more than 1/2 a season. 

Not even if you literally count his .856 OPS at age 23 in 2023 when he had 502 PA?

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I find it odd comparing Casas to Bichette and putting Casas in the same sentence as Anthony. 

I like Casas, I really do, I hope he's a legit middle of the order bat and finally stays healthy.  But he's literally never given us much more than 1/2 a season. 

Months when Casas has had a 860+ OPS: July and August 2023. 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Casas may come back, but it may be a much lesser Casas. He's had a significant amount of injuries already and relying him on anything going forward seems foolhardy. 

Is the idea that Anthony replaces Devers? Weren't they supposed to use the Devers money to bring people in? 

I don’t pretend to know how they allocate the money or what any plans were.

I just know right now they need two infielders preferably including one 1b/DH.   They might splurge on Alonso or splurge on Bregman.  I have my doubts they splurge on both…

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Not even if you literally count his .856 OPS at age 23 in 2023 when he had 502 PA?

That feels like ancient history after his rib issue and now leg issue. 🫠

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

I don’t pretend to know how they allocate the money or what any plans were.

I just know right now they need two infielders preferably including one 1b/DH.   They might splurge on Alonso or splurge on Bregman.  I have my doubts they splurge on both…

Hard to see how they get a DH with Masa still on the roster. 

[notin]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Months when Casas has had a 860+ OPS: July and August 2023. 

So do you think he’s out of the picture?  Not asking about your personal expectations, but rather potential team plans…

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Not even if you literally count his .856 OPS at age 23 in 2023 when he had 502 PA?

I'm not discounting his potential, I just don't think he belongs in the same universe as Bichette.  Let him stay healthy for a few years and do more than have a few good months then we can talk.  

Trust me, I hope he gets there, but it's an odd comparision right now. 

[notin]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That feels like ancient history after his rib issue and now leg issue. 🫠

It does.  But he’s also still only 25 (until January), still here, relatively cheap, and has demonstrated capability.  Hes far from a sure thing, but that doesn’t mean the team is going to ignore him and banish him to Polar Park for the duration. Heck it doesn’t even mean he has to earn his way back…
 

 

[Hugh2]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm not discounting his potential, I just don't think he belongs in the same universe as Bichette.  Let him stay healthy for a few years and do more than have a few good months then we can talk.  

Trust me, I hope he gets there, but it's an odd comparision right now. 

 

13 minutes ago, notin said:

Not even if you literally count his .856 OPS at age 23 in 2023 when he had 502 PA?

ADD: that's already counted in his career war.  20-2.2

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, notin said:

It does.  But he’s also still only 25 (until January), still here, relatively cheap, and has demonstrated capability.  Hes far from a sure thing, but that doesn’t mean the team is going to ignore him and banish him to Polar Park for the duration. Heck it doesn’t even mean he has to earn his way back…
 

 

WHo said he was going to banished? I think most people assume in the absence of a move he's the 1B.  A lot of people want Alonso or someone else in which case he has a nice spot at DH if he can come back and hit. 

[notin]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm not discounting his potential, I just don't think he belongs in the same universe as Bichette.  Let him stay healthy for a few years and do more than have a few good months then we can talk.  

Trust me, I hope he gets there, but it's an odd comparision right now. 

A few more years? Not even remotely realistic.

The issue with Casas is that his existence is being ignored, and he has shown he can be a relatively cheap source of power and production.  He has seen his last two seasons derailed by injury, and clearly many fans have written him off, but do you honestly think the team has? 

[notin]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

WHo said he was going to banished? I think most people assume in the absence of a move he's the 1B.  A lot of people want Alonso or someone else in which case he has a nice spot at DH if he can come back and hit. 

I’m hoping he can re-enter the DH picture if the Sox sign Alonso.  Even if they don’t, I think I prefer his complete lack of glove in a DH role, although the secondary options for 1b are not exactly Gold Glove candidates, even with new entry Ryan Mountcastle joining the race 

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

So do you think he’s out of the picture?  Not asking about your personal expectations, but rather potential team plans…

They are dealing him this offseason or stashing him in AAA. I don't think they are planning on him to be a fulltime contributor.

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

It does.  But he’s also still only 25 (until January), still here, relatively cheap, and has demonstrated capability.  Hes far from a sure thing, but that doesn’t mean the team is going to ignore him and banish him to Polar Park for the duration. Heck it doesn’t even mean he has to earn his way back…

You said it: "far from a sure thing." 

That's why he should probably spend the first few months in WOO rather than OPSing 500 in BOS again.

[notin]

51 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You said it: "far from a sure thing." 

That's why he should probably spend the first few months in WOO rather than OPSing 500 in BOS again.

Hes like Campbell, per my theory.  But I don’t really know to what length they are going to block him.  I suspect they plan to sign Alonso for 1b and start with Yoshida at DH, since he is also still here and more likely to be healthy and ready to go.  But should Yoshida falter, or Casas excel, Triston is back in the picture.  
 

If the Sox bring back Bregman and also sign a second tier 1b like Hoskins, Bell, Mountcastle, it gets more complicated but Casas will likely get a chance to get back into the lineup at 1b or DH, depending on how he does and how Yoshida or the new 1b does.

I also think this kind of might prevent them from brining in 2 marquee infielders from free agency…

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Hes like Campbell, per my theory.  But I don’t really know to what length they are going to block him.  I suspect they plan to sign Alonso for 1b and start with Yoshida at DH, since he is also still here and more likely to be healthy and ready to go.  But should Yoshida falter, or Casas excel, Triston is back in the picture.  

If the Sox bring back Bregman and also sign a second tier 1b like Hoskins, Bell, Mountcastle, it gets more complicated but Casas will likely get a chance to get back into the lineup at 1b or DH, depending on how he does and how Yoshida or the new 1b does.

I also think this kind of might prevent them from brining in 2 marquee infielders from free agency…

If they sign Alonso, I don't see a reason to keep Casas around except for his cheap contract and options. 

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Hes like Campbell, per my theory.  But I don’t really know to what length they are going to block him.  I suspect they plan to sign Alonso for 1b and start with Yoshida at DH, since he is also still here and more likely to be healthy and ready to go.  But should Yoshida falter, or Casas excel, Triston is back in the picture.  
 

If the Sox bring back Bregman and also sign a second tier 1b like Hoskins, Bell, Mountcastle, it gets more complicated but Casas will likely get a chance to get back into the lineup at 1b or DH, depending on how he does and how Yoshida or the new 1b does.

I also think this kind of might prevent them from brining in 2 marquee infielders from free agency…

You can use Yoshida, Campbell, Romy, and Mayer and Casas to talk yourself out of signing anyone.

But Id rather have depth and allow for some wiggle room in case one of the aforementioned doesnt seize a spot or if they have injuries.  Last year, we had like 3-4 dudes off waivers starting every day.  And we were never really a world series threat. So we need to improve.

And guys get replaced on improving teams.

[Hugh2]

30 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they sign Alonso, I don't see a reason to keep Casas around except for his cheap contract and options. 

He would offer signifcantly more upside at DH than Yoshida does, and is a natural back up if Alonso goes down or falls off a cliff. 

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

He would offer signifcantly more upside at DH than Yoshida does, and is a natural back up if Alonso goes down or falls off a cliff. 

The problem with the roster construction is the big Masa hurdle. Until he's out of the equation, it's hard to place another fulltime DH on the roster. 

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The problem with the roster construction is the big Masa hurdle. Until he's out of the equation, it's hard to place another fulltime DH on the roster. 

The gift from Bloom keeps on giving. Do the Red Sox really want a full time DH anymore? I don’t think they do.

[Hugh2]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The problem with the roster construction is the big Masa hurdle. Until he's out of the equation, it's hard to place another fulltime DH on the roster. 

Well, why are you assuming Casas starts the year in Boston? he very well may need a month in WOO anyways so it may work out great. 

I haven't 100% eliminated the possibility that they move on from Yoshida at some point next year. 

[mvp 78]

32 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The gift from Bloom keeps on giving. Do the Red Sox really want a full time DH anymore? I don’t think they do.

They don't want MASA as a fulltime DH. If that spot was open, maybe we'd be hearing smoke about a FA addition? 

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Well, why are you assuming Casas starts the year in Boston? he very well may need a month in WOO anyways so it may work out great. 

I've been the one guy NOT assuming he starts in Boston. 😐

[notin]

35 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The gift from Bloom keeps on giving. Do the Red Sox really want a full time DH anymore? I don’t think they do.

Why would any team not want a full time DH?  Or better yet, a full time DH platoon?

[notin]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They don't want MASA as a fulltime DH. If that spot was open, maybe we'd be hearing smoke about a FA addition? 

I would agree Breslow in particular isnt wild about Yoshida.  But not wanting a full time DH in general wouldn’t be smart…

[notin]

47 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The problem with the roster construction is the big Masa hurdle. Until he's out of the equation, it's hard to place another fulltime DH on the roster. 

Yes and no.  Yoshida does have options if they get a better DH.  Or he at a bare minimum is capable of holding the position until Casas steps in…

[notin]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

You can use Yoshida, Campbell, Romy, and Mayer and Casas to talk yourself out of signing anyone.

But Id rather have depth and allow for some wiggle room in case one of the aforementioned doesnt seize a spot or if they have injuries.  Last year, we had like 3-4 dudes off waivers starting every day.  And we were never really a world series threat. So we need to improve.

And guys get replaced on improving teams.

I think most of those guys are the depth.

I get the impression Breslow isnt wild about Yoshida, but Yoshida did hit well down the stretch and in the postseason.  Casas is the higher ceiling hitter, but not sure when he comes back.  But when he does, DH is his best position, especially if Yoshida hasn’t run away with it. 
 

I doubt they trade away enough outfielders to get Campbell a starting job. Hes likely Worcester-bound for April if he isn’t traded himself.

Mayer is a starter.  Either at 2b or 3b (although SS really makes the most sense). His role depends on what the Sox acquisitions are.

Romy is a specialty role player.  Dont let my “Hes a better option than Arenado” viewpoint convince you I think Romy should start.  My point was - Arenado shouldn’t, and argued he was a worse option than the Sox have on the bench.  Romy likely settles in platooning with Mayer or Casas/Yoshida.  (Although the reality is Casas shouldn’t be platooned.  But, you know, Cora.)