Predicting LT payroll

[Hitch]

15 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't think we "stand still" but adding Ryan ISN'T standing still and yes I assume some of the young guys will take a step forward.  I believe in ROmany Anthony and the others. 

I can't predict the future, neither can you.  Comparing us the Orioles? I suppose that's fair.  A lot of these guys could go in the opposite direction and take steps backwards.  But I think that would be 100% on brand with my comment when I said that would be a "a very pessimistic take" 

Adding Ryan only to the roster that we had last year (while losing Devers, Gio and likely Duran/Abreu) is very much a step backwards. I can't even bring myself to say standing still again. I'm amazed this is up for debate, and I too believe Roman will take a decent step forward this year. 

[Old Red]

54 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Ryan is a clear improvment in the rotation.  A team that is flush with young talent, top prospects coming into their own is a good bet to provide more value this year.  Is Roman Anthony 2026 not going to be better than 2025 Roman Antony, is 2026 Marcelo Mayer not going to be better than 2025 Mayer? what about Rafaela/Abreu/Duran/Narvaez? are those guys going to regress or take steps forward? What if Casas is healthy? heck, even Bregman who missed some time could conceivably be a whole WIN more valuable in 2026 if he plays a full season. 

The opinion that if we resign Bregman and add Ryan we have not improved is a very pessimistic take. 

Ryan may be an improvement over Gio, but how much so? Bregman might not get off to a hot start like he didn’t two years ago, so any improvement, or not would be TBD.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Adding Ryan only to the roster that we had last year (while losing Devers, Gio and likely Duran/Abreu) is very much a step backwards. I can't even bring myself to say standing still again. I'm amazed this is up for debate, and I too believe Roman will take a decent step forward this year. 

Losing Duran/Abreu would be adding something different in another area would it not?

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Adding Ryan only to the roster that we had last year (while losing Devers, Gio and likely Duran/Abreu) is very much a step backwards. I can't even bring myself to say standing still again. I'm amazed this is up for debate, and I too believe Roman will take a decent step forward this year. 

I mean I thought in my original statement we included adding Bregman back and Ryan.  You took out Bregman, I think, regardless I went along with it so that's on me too.  But even then I think the team does get better.  I'll roll with that. 

Bregman gave us what? 3.5 and Devers 2.0? so that's 5.5 we are losing but Joe Ryan would have added 3.1 last year. so we lose 2.4 WAR

Do we think the collective of Crochet/Bello/Narvaez/Casas/Mayer/Anthony/Rafaela/Duran/Abreu/Campbell/Tolle/EARLY and others on the way are going to  better worse or the same as last year?

Anticipating that list of stars combined with youth couldnt cross the threshold of 2.4 WAR is a very pessimistic take in my opinion.  Literally just Mayer or just Anthony might do that. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Adding Ryan only to the roster that we had last year (while losing Devers, Gio and likely Duran/Abreu) is very much a step backwards. I can't even bring myself to say standing still again. I'm amazed this is up for debate, and I too believe Roman will take a decent step forward this year. 

They only had Devers for part of the season and made the playoffs without him. Ryan is flat out a better pitcher than Giolito. If they are trading and OFer it is to get something in return. They aren't trading Duran for Ryan.

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Ryan may be an improvement over Gio, but how much so? Bregman might not get off to a hot start like he didn’t two years ago, so any improvement, or not would be TBD.

Ryan would clearly be an improvement for the rotation.  Bregman would be status quo.  So you either believe young talented guys take a step forward, or they do not. 

I don't think there's a right or wrong answer here, but I do believe thinking that guys like Mayer and Anthony can't add substantially more value in 2026 than they did in 2025 is a pessimistic take.  Not that there's anything wrong with that, it's not like the Sox haven't given us reason to be so in years past. 

But I put that on the FO not the players, I believe in a lot of these young guys.  I believe in them a lot more if they do MORE than just add Ryan and Bregman back. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I mean I thought in my original statement we included adding Bregman back and Ryan.  You took out Bregman, I think, regardless I went along with it so that's on me too.  But even then I think the team does get better.  I'll roll with that. 

Bregman gave us what? 3.5 and Devers 2.0? so that's 5.5 we are losing but Joe Ryan would have added 3.1 last year. so we lose 2.4 WAR

Do we think the collective of Crochet/Bello/Narvaez/Casas/Mayer/Anthony/Rafaela/Duran/Abreu/Campbell/Tolle/EARLY and others on the way are going to  better worse or the same as last year?

Anticipating that list of stars combined with youth couldnt cross the threshold of 2.4 WAR is a very pessimistic take in my opinion.  Literally just Mayer or just Anthony might do that. 

A full year of Roman Anthony. 😍

[Hugh2]

PEOPLE.  Don't let any of this distract you from the fact that the 2026 Boston Red Sox will cross and go above the luxury tax threshold and that number will in fact sit ABOVE $246 million dollars. 

[Hitch]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I mean I thought in my original statement we included adding Bregman back and Ryan.  You took out Bregman, I think, regardless I went along with it so that's on me too.  But even then I think the team does get better.  I'll roll with that. 

Bregman gave us what? 3.5 and Devers 2.0? so that's 5.5 we are losing but Joe Ryan would have added 3.1 last year. so we lose 2.4 WAR

Do we think the collective of Crochet/Bello/Narvaez/Casas/Mayer/Anthony/Rafaela/Duran/Abreu/Campbell/Tolle/EARLY and others on the way are going to  better worse or the same as last year?

Anticipating that list of stars combined with youth couldnt cross the threshold of 2.4 WAR is a very pessimistic take in my opinion.  Literally just Mayer or just Anthony might do that. 

No, sorry, I meant with Bregman. I didn't include him as he was there last year, too. You're adding Ryan and taking away Devers and Gio. That isn't moving forward at all to me, especially if we are trading Duran or Abreu for a number 2. 

I don't like hoping that players will take leaps forwards or show health they haven't before for us to be okay. Instead we should be, all things being equal, looking to start the season much improved and if we get positive progression as well, all the better. If we don't or get regression it will at least counteract that somewhat. 

I'll happy to be on Lou Merloni's side on this who is very much of the same mindset.

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

PEOPLE.  Don't let any of this distract you from the fact that the 2026 Boston Red Sox will cross and go above the luxury tax threshold and that number will in fact sit ABOVE $246 million dollars. 

🤫.

[Hitch]

9 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Losing Duran/Abreu would be adding something different in another area would it not?

Depends if it is for a number 2, or prospects.  We're using Ryan here, but we could just as easily trade for Peralta, or another, in which Abreu and Duran become much more interesting. 

If we trade one of them in a deal for Marte, then things would look very different obviously, but that wasn't the parameters of the discussion. 

[Hugh2]

4 minutes ago, Hitch said:

No, sorry, I meant with Bregman. I didn't include him as he was there last year, too. You're adding Ryan and taking away Devers and Gio. That isn't moving forward at all to me, especially if we are trading Duran or Abreu for a number 2. 

I don't like hoping that players will take leaps forwards or show health they haven't before for us to be okay. Instead we should be, all things being equal, looking to start the season much improved and if we get positive progression as well, all the better. If we don't or get regression it will at least counteract that somewhat. 

I'll happy to be on Lou Merloni's side on this who is very much of the same mindset.

I don't either, I want the team to make moves.  I'm just saying even with the roster they have I largely expect better play from the youth movement. 

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

PEOPLE.  Don't let any of this distract you from the fact that the 2026 Boston Red Sox will cross and go above the luxury tax threshold and that number will in fact sit ABOVE $246 million dollars. 

That 246 is inclusive of benefits and not just what we are calculating on here when we look at FA lists. 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Hitch said:

No, sorry, I meant with Bregman. I didn't include him as he was there last year, too. You're adding Ryan and taking away Devers and Gio. That isn't moving forward at all to me, especially if we are trading Duran or Abreu for a number 2. 

I don't like hoping that players will take leaps forwards or show health they haven't before for us to be okay. Instead we should be, all things being equal, looking to start the season much improved and if we get positive progression as well, all the better. If we don't or get regression it will at least counteract that somewhat. 

I'll happy to be on Lou Merloni's side on this who is very much of the same mindset.

I'd be surprised if they didn't add at 3b AND 1b. It may not be Breggie AND Alonso, but I think they can't run Romy out there at 1b going forward. 

[notin]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

This is a fair point, but what the agent would get out of this particular lie is hard to discern. His client is still at the organisation, why make something up, when the GM can come out and say this report is absolutely false? It hardly shows his client in a good light. 

FA quotes are a lot easier to take with a pinch of salt. When the client is still at a club - less so.

It shows the team is cheap and reluctant to pay what is client is worth.  We’ve seen this before.  We have all heard stories about blatantly cheap extension offers given to Bogaerts and Lester and assumed them to be true.  But we really don’t know what the offers were.  I am not sure what restrictions if any teams have about countering these stories, but does any benefit arise from that potential media war? The benefit is easy to see for the agent - the fans always gravitate to his side?  How often have you seen comments about the cheapness of ownership as opposed to the greed of players.  But fans don’t cheer for owners, so we don’t want to see the players as greedy.  Even as recently as last year, stories around the internet pervaded about Devers’ trade being done so Liverpool could afford Florian Wirtz, despite the numbers making no sense.  (Liverpool FC is worth more than the Sox and Wirtz’ contract pales compared to Devers’.) But people wanted to believe Henry was making the Sox worse for his own other businesses they don’t care about.   Why? Because it’s easy to vilify owners   And when Skubal’s leaves, no one in Detroit will say it’s because of his demands and every story will be about cheap ownership caring more about bottom lines than the product on the field…
 

 

 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

It shows the team is cheap and reluctant to pay what is client is worth.  We’ve seen this before.  We have all heard stories about blatantly cheap extension offers given to Bogaerts and Lester and assumed them to be true.  But we really don’t know what the offers were.  I am not sure what restrictions if any teams have about countering these stories, but does any benefit arise from that potential media war? The benefit is easy to see for the agent - the fans always gravitate to his side?  How often have you seen comments about the cheapness of ownership as opposed to the greed of players.  But fans don’t cheer for owners, so we don’t want to see the players as greedy.  Even as recently as last year, stories around the internet pervaded about Devers’ trade being done so Liverpool could afford Florian Wirtz, despite the numbers making no sense.  (Liverpool FC is worth more than the Sox and Wirtz’ contract pales compared to Devers’.) But people wanted to believe Henry was making the Sox worse for his own other businesses they don’t care about.   Why? Because it’s easy to vilify owners   And when Skubal’s leaves, no one in Detroit will say it’s because of his demands and every story will be about cheap ownership caring more about bottom lines than the product on the field…

🥾👅

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd be surprised if they didn't add at 3b AND 1b. It may not be Breggie AND Alonso, but I think they can't run Romy out there at 1b going forward. 

I'm just saying in a vacuum the team will grow with what they have.  That is not anagolous with saying we should or will. 

[Hugh2]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That 246 is inclusive of benefits and not just what we are calculating on here when we look at FA lists. 

that 246 is a hard number for LT purposes.  They will, at a bare minimum pay tax on $2 million dollars. 

I think it will be even higher than that. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm just saying in a vacuum the team will grow with what they have. 

Well that kinda sucks.

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

🥾👅

It's kind of funny that Bogaerts and Lester were brought up.  Because what did the Sox do afterwards. 

Lester - literally the next season they signed David Price to a record contract. 

Bogaerts - literally the same season they lost him they signed Devers to a record extension. 

Not agreeing with or dismissing anyones point....just found that interesting. 

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Well that kinda sucks.

Why?

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

that 246 is a hard number for LT purposes.  They will, at a bare minimum pay tax on $2 million dollars. 

I think it will be even higher than that. 

If they stopped right at the first threshold, it'd be silly. May as well spend up to the second threshold at least.

[Hugh2]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

If they stopped right at the first threshold, it'd be silly. May as well spend up to the second threshold at least.

Agreed.  That's just the arbitrary number I picked as an over/under. 

Trying to get a pulse of how people think the Sox will spend in here. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

It's kind of funny that Bogaerts and Lester were brought up.  Because what did the Sox do afterwards. 

Lester - literally the next season they signed David Price to a record contract. 

Bogaerts - literally the same season they lost him they signed Devers to a record extension. 

Not agreeing with or dismissing anyones point....just found that interesting. 

The Sox used to be top 5 to highest payroll in baseball year in and year out. Now I see posts about how they are a mid market team! It's just crazy... 

The payroll limitations the Sox have are self imposed. 

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Why?

omg you were making joke weren't you.  *sigh* slams head into desk

[mvp 78]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

omg you were making joke weren't you.  *sigh* slams head into desk

😎

[notin]

52 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

A full year of Roman Anthony. 😍

And many like to forget the existence of Triston Casas.  He might not be ready for opening day, but that doesn’t mean he’s dead…

[Hugh2]

Just now, notin said:

And many like to forget the existence of Triston Casas.  He might not be ready for opening day, but that doesn’t mean he’s dead…

Tristan Casas wouldn't surprise me if he puts up 0 WAR, geats healthy hits like a middle of the order bat and puts up a 4+ WAR, or never plays in a Sox uniform again. 

I don't think anyone can count on Casas for anything right now, but he's a real wildcard for 2026. 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Tristan Casas wouldn't surprise me if he puts up 0 WAR, geats healthy hits like a middle of the order bat and puts up a 4+ WAR, or never plays in a Sox uniform again. 

I don't think anyone can count on Casas for anything right now, but he's a real wildcard for 2026. 

He has a huge advantage over Bregman, Alonso, Bichette, Marte, etc. in that he’s already here. 
 

His recent health issues are certainly concerning, but are they more or less concerning than those of Bo Bichette?

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

He has a huge advantage over Bregman, Alonso, Bichette, Marte, etc. in that he’s already here. 
 

His recent health issues are certainly concerning, but are they more or less concerning than those of Bo Bichette?

Bichette is two years older but has played in almost 500 more games.  He's also put up career WAR of 20 compared to Casas 2.2

Bichette has played the full season 3 out of the 4 years and still managed more games than Casas has in 75% of his MLB career in 2024.

I'd be much more concerned with Casas than Bichette