Predicting LT payroll

[Hugh2]

Setting the over under this year a little above the first threshold.  Will this team spend? Place your bets

[notin]

Spend? Yes.  As much as fans want? Different story…

[Hugh2]

I predict they will, like last year, go above the luxury tax line.  
 

they’ve stated in the past a willingness to do so when they feel they can be competitive, and I believe they think they can take a step forward and it will take an investment to improve the rotation and the infield 

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I predict they will, like last year, go above the luxury tax line.  
 

they’ve stated in the past a willingness to do so when they feel they can be competitive, and I believe they think they can take a step forward and it will take an investment to improve the rotation and the infield 

I'd like to believe this is true, but we've been shammed and scammed over and over. Their words ring hollow. We were competitive this year, and chose to dump the Devers salary, then did nothing at the deadline that may have cost some money. I know there was more to that choice than money, but the fact is, we traded away our best hitter during an open window season and did nothing to replace him.

Now, we say "They will," but I'm skeptical.

What would go a long way in convincing me would be to go very close to the second line. I realize this would be year two of the tax and likely force a reset in 2027, but make on of the major additions a one and done deal. Some are projecting Gleyber Torres will take a 1 year deal. Maybe Merrill Kelly takes a one and done, since he's 37. Maybe Polanco thinks one more big season could get him a multi-year big deal after 2026. (A team 2nd year option with a big buyout might lure Polanco to sign a 1 year deal.)

The second line would mean we have about $65M to spend. We could make a trade or two that add a few more $million, but $65M and one key trade could make enormous gains on how we look on paper.

$29M Alonso

$16M Suarez

$15M Polanco

$5M Matz

Trade Duran for Lodolo and Mayer, Sandlin & Garcia for Ryan.

BAM!!!!

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd like to believe this is true, but we've been shammed and scammed over and over. Their words ring hollow. We were competitive this year, and chose to dump the Devers salary, then did nothing at the deadline that may have cost some money. I know there was more to that choice than money, but the fact is, we traded away our best hitter during an open window season and did nothing to replace him.

Now, we say "They will," but I'm skeptical.

What would go a long way in convincing me would be to go very close to the second line. I realize this would be year two of the tax and likely force a reset in 2027, but make on of the major additions a one and done deal. Some are projecting Gleyber Torres will take a 1 year deal. Maybe Merrill Kelly takes a one and done, since he's 37. Maybe Polanco thinks one more big season could get him a multi-year big deal after 2026. (A team 2nd year option with a big buyout might lure Polanco to sign a 1 year deal.)

The second line would mean we have about $65M to spend. We could make a trade or two that add a few more $million, but $65M and one key trade could make enormous gains on how we look on paper.

$29M Alonso

$16M Suarez

$15M Polanco

$5M Matz

Trade Duran for Lodolo and Mayer, Sandlin & Garcia for Ryan.

BAM!!!!

I was right last year, I’ll be right this year

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I was right last year, I’ll be right this year

Right about what?

Barely going over the line?

[Hugh2]

57 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Right about what?

Barely going over the line?

Barely going over the line is going over the line.  

[moonslav59]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

Barely going over the line is going over the line.  

Yes, it is. 

We'd have been way over w/o the Devers trade.

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, it is. 

We'd have been way over w/o the Devers trade.

Well, remember only a little less than half his salary was reduced and they took on salary but it definitely reduced it.

 

honesty it will be an interesting offseason, I was 100% convinced they were going over last year, this year not so much but I still feel it’s more probable

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Well, remember only a little less than half his salary was reduced and they took on salary but it definitely reduced it.

honesty it will be an interesting offseason, I was 100% convinced they were going over last year, this year not so much but I still feel it’s more probable

I didn't mean to imply I doubted you made the correct prediction.

I chose to stop predicting, since it seemed and still seems impossible after so many broken promises, like "full throttle."

On the AAV ledger, I think we saved about $16-18M on Devers but added about $6-7M for Hicks, so we saved about $10M on the tax budget.

There is no reason to not go over this year, but I'm still refraining from predicting or expecting us to do it. IMO, we should spend up to the second line, which means about $65-70M, not counting any trades that add or subtract from the total.

We basically have 3 major plus slots lost to free agency: Bregman (3B) SP2 (Giolito) and RP (Wilson/Matz) I'm not counting Lowe (1B) because he's actually still under control, although I think we should non tender him. (He may get $10-12M via arb.)

To me, this is the peak time to "go for it." 2027 would be the year 3 tax year (reset?) We should sign a player or two to one year deals, so we can reset, but do our best to lock up 2-3 high quality players for 2-3 or more years. That's how long the window is open, if not longer. We can get 1 or 2 via trade(s) but we should be able to sign 2-3 major FAs to high AAVs.

Just do it!

[Hitch]

7 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Well, remember only a little less than half his salary was reduced and they took on salary but it definitely reduced it.

 

honesty it will be an interesting offseason, I was 100% convinced they were going over last year, this year not so much but I still feel it’s more probable

They're definitely going over the line. They need to just to fill the holes. Luxury tax wise, we're not in the best shape with the holes we have.

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, Hitch said:

They're definitely going over the line. They need to just to fill the holes. Luxury tax wise, we're not in the best shape with the holes we have.

To me, we can be a top contender with 3 major additions: SP2, 2B/3B (Mayer plays the other) and 1B. Since we can and should trade for one, we could easily fill the other two slots by free agency. If it's $45-50M (1st line) it might be a little difficult, but not very difficult. Estimates show we could maybe sign Alonso plus Polanco or Suarez. If we spend to the second line, we could easily do it, or even sign 3 major players.

We are in good shape, if JH just spends to the first line and Brez makes a good trade.

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

To me, we can be a top contender with 3 major additions: SP2, 2B/3B (Mayer plays the other) and 1B. Since we can and should trade for one, we could easily fill the other two slots by free agency. If it's $45-50M (1st line) it might be a little difficult, but not very difficult. Estimates show we could maybe sign Alonso plus Polanco or Suarez. If we spend to the second line, we could easily do it, or even sign 3 major players.

We are in good shape, if JH just spends to the first line and Brez makes a good trade.

I think we're at $205 when we release Lowe? I'm not sure how much more we are expecting to add with arbs, but let's say it leaves us with $39m for the first tax line.

That isn't anywhere near enough to get in two infielders if one is Alonso/Bregman/Buchette, and we're likely to add salary for the No2, even with Duran possibly going out (I'm far from convinced). 

I've seen a few predictions we can stay under the first tax line and be okay - I do not think that is happening. I do think Henry will spend over the first tax level, but I would be very surprised to see him go over the second. So we've likely got around $59 to spend.

Not a lot with our holes and more than likely kills any long shot dream of getting Skubal and extending.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Hitch said:

I think we're at $205 when we release Lowe? I'm not sure how much more we are expecting to add with arbs, but let's say it leaves us with $39m for the first tax line.

That isn't anywhere near enough to get in two infielders if one is Alonso/Bregman/Buchette, and we're likely to add salary for the No2, even with Duran possibly going out (I'm far from convinced). 

I've seen a few predictions we can stay under the first tax line and be okay - I do not think that is happening. I do think Henry will spend over the first tax level, but I would be very surprised to see him go over the second. So we've likely got around $59 to spend.

Not a lot with our holes and more than likely kills any long shot dream of getting Skubal and extending.

Cots has us at $205, counting $12M for Lowe. Without him, we'd have $50M, according to them.

Spotrac has $171M, counting $12.75M for Lowe, but not counting $18M for player benefits & the $8M for other costs, so maybe w/o Lowe it would be $185M, leaving $60M.

By my own calculations, we have about $45M w/o Lowe. If we break even with AAV on our bid trade, we'd maybe have $30M for Alonso and $15M for Polanco, but again, I doubt we do that.

[Hitch]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Cots has us at $205, counting $12M for Lowe. Without him, we'd have $50M, according to them.

Spotrac has $171M, counting $12.75M for Lowe, but not counting $18M for player benefits & the $8M for other costs, so maybe w/o Lowe it would be $185M, leaving $60M.

By my own calculations, we have about $45M w/o Lowe. If we break even with AAV on our bid trade, we'd maybe have $30M for Alonso and $15M for Polanco, but again, I doubt we do that.

Yeah I think those first two projections are wrong. On the latest Fenway Rundown, Cotillo and McAdams were at pains to point out that our luxury tax numbers are nowhere near as pretty as being portrayed in some places, referencing Stats on twitter and his work - though I can't find it - and saying we have much less to spend than you'd think before that 1st line and that was excluding Lowe.

It would be nice to know for sure. 

Either way, I don't see us getting two big FAs unless we miraculously get Yoshida's money off the books.

[Hitch]

That CANNOT be true, surely? 4 x $20m? Cannot be. 

[mvp 78]

Per SP, Sox are projected at 24M under right now. They'll be over. 

[moonslav59]

59 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Per SP, Sox are projected at 24M under right now. They'll be over. 

Maybe I'm missing the payments being made to ex Sox players, but I added it all up, and it looked like $42-46M under line 1. Who am I missing?

AAV in $ Millions

28 Crochet

23 Story

18 Yoshida

16 Anthony

13 Chapman

10 Hicks

9 Sandoval

9 Bello

8 Duran

8 Campbell

6 Rafaela

5 Whitlock

1 Criswell

 14 Arb estimates (no 12 for Lowe)- 4 Houck, 3 Crawf, 2 Romy, 1 Casas, 1 Wong, 1 Bernardino, 1 Wink & 1 Kelly+

Total 167

+ 18 Player benefits

+ 4 Players with 0-3 years in MLB on 40

+3 Players with 0-3 years in MiLB on 40

+2 Arb Pool

197 Total, not counting payments to Bregman and other ex-players.

That's $47M under.

Again, who or what am I missing? This should not be rocket science, yet we see wild disparities listed everywhere.

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe I'm missing the payments being made to ex Sox players, but I added it all up, and it looked like $42-46M under line 1. Who am I missing?

AAV in $ Millions

28 Crochet

23 Story

18 Yoshida

16 Anthony

13 Chapman

10 Hicks

9 Sandoval

9 Bello

8 Duran

8 Campbell

6 Rafaela

5 Whitlock

1 Criswell

 14 Arb estimates (no 12 for Lowe)- 4 Houck, 3 Crawf, 2 Romy, 1 Casas, 1 Wong, 1 Bernardino, 1 Wink & 1 Kelly+

Total 167

+ 18 Player benefits

+ 4 Players with 0-3 years in MLB on 40

+3 Players with 0-3 years in MiLB on 40

+2 Arb Pool

197 Total, not counting payments to Bregman and other ex-players.

That's $47M under.

Again, who or what am I missing? This should not be rocket science, yet we see wild disparities listed everywhere.

https://soxprospects.com/payroll.htm

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

https://soxprospects.com/payroll.htm

Okay, I see $13.75M for Lowe, $1.8 for Devers, $7M more for other 40 man roster players and $750K more for player benefits. That's about $23M

$47M-$23= $24M.

Add Lowe and it's $38M, which is close to the $40M I have been using for over a month.

I'm not sure why the $7M difference on 40 man roster pre-arb players (MLB & MiLB.)

[drewski6]

On 11/8/2025 at 3:06 PM, moonslav59 said:

I'd like to believe this is true, but we've been shammed and scammed over and over. Their words ring hollow. We were competitive this year, and chose to dump the Devers salary, then did nothing at the deadline that may have cost some money. I know there was more to that choice than money, but the fact is, we traded away our best hitter during an open window season and did nothing to replace him.

Now, we say "They will," but I'm skeptical.

What would go a long way in convincing me would be to go very close to the second line. I realize this would be year two of the tax and likely force a reset in 2027, but make on of the major additions a one and done deal. Some are projecting Gleyber Torres will take a 1 year deal. Maybe Merrill Kelly takes a one and done, since he's 37. Maybe Polanco thinks one more big season could get him a multi-year big deal after 2026. (A team 2nd year option with a big buyout might lure Polanco to sign a 1 year deal.)

The second line would mean we have about $65M to spend. We could make a trade or two that add a few more $million, but $65M and one key trade could make enormous gains on how we look on paper.

$29M Alonso

$16M Suarez

$15M Polanco

$5M Matz

Trade Duran for Lodolo and Mayer, Sandlin & Garcia for Ryan.

BAM!!!!

calm down Emeril. (just teasing)

[drewski6]

we're gonna get rich hill and justin turner, arent we?

[drewski6]

I took the over, 246m is well placed over/under hugh.  Had to think on it.  I assume we'll extend whomever we trade for. Im not sure Im going to love the FA names, but I think the difference will be (like the pattern) a willingness to overpay from an AAV standpoint due to an outright refusal to give term.

So it will be a con.  "WHy you say they cheap, they got this guy and that guy "

Yeah, a 1 yr deal and a 2 yr deal

You know what they say about 1 and 2 yr deals , right? You get the guys that are willing to accept them.

[Hitch]

Something to take into account that I've not seen anyone mention - every new collective bargain, the luxury tax resets (even if you've been over a few years in a row), so it wouldn't hurt us to much to be over again this year. There will be no 3rd year penalties. 

[moonslav59]

21 hours ago, drewski6 said:

we're gonna get rich hill and justin turner, arent we?

Teasing, again?

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Teasing, again?

Could almost fill a whole 40 man roster with former Sox guys that are available via FA:

Bregman

Schwarber

Littell

May

Giolito

Perez

Moncada

Jansen

Vazquez

Matz

Buehler

Martin

Refsnyder

Pomeranz

Wilson

Pham

Urias

Newcomb

Miley

Iglesias

Keller

Espinal

Jansen

Garcia

Verdugo

Hernandez

Brasier

Beeks

Hendriks

Kopech

Smith

Turner

Alfaro

Margot

Sims

Kimbrel

[moonslav59]

A sign of all the turnover, we've had.

Just don't call it a rebuild.

Our most senior players on the 40 were added to it in 2020 (Houck, Wong & Whitlock.)

Our 8th most senior player (Story) was added right before 2022 spring training. Casas (10th) was added at the end of '22.

Our 17th through 22nd guys were added before the '24 season- meaning more than half of our 40 man roster was not on it right after the 2023 season. That's two years ago, today.

 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

A sign of all the turnover, we've had.

Just don't call it a rebuild.

Our most senior players on the 40 were added to it in 2020 (Houck, Wong & Whitlock.)

Our 8th most senior player (Story) was added right before 2022 spring training. Casas (10th) was added at the end of '22.

Our 17th through 22nd guys were added before the '24 season- meaning more than half of our 40 man roster was not on it right after the 2023 season. That's two years ago, today. 

 

About 10 of those guys could make sense as a signing. Bregman and Refsnyder are clearly the two most likely to re-sign. Funniest re-sign would be Pham. 

I know Pomeranz was serviceable last season and is younger than we think, but don't bring that dud back. 

 

[Hugh2]

One thing I've been considering lately is that the cash payroll is going to be lower than the LT payroll.  I think this drastically increases the chances that we not only go over the first LT limit but that we can spend up until the 2nd and maybe even a little over under the right scenario. 

 

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

One thing I've been considering lately is that the cash payroll is going to be lower than the LT payroll.  I think this drastically increases the chances that we not only go over the first LT limit but that we can spend up until the 2nd and maybe even a little over under the right scenario. 

 

We could have spent more in years past, too.

My hope is that JH sees this open window, recognize it can be 4-5 years long, and decide that now is the time he can splurge for a 4-6 year deal or two.

Maybe we can cobble together 3-4 shorter term deals that get us over the hump, but that's not an easy thing to do.

Suarez

Merrill Kelly

Polanco

Is that enough?