Morosi: Jarren Duran Would Be A "Great Fit" With Detroit Tigers

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

FL is a stand your ground state so it could get interesting. 

Florida is also a state that allows you to cough all over a man while beating him with frozen iguanas.  And they view that as routine.  It probably has its own 3 digit police code…

[Hugh2]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

There are rumblings surrounding any potential free agent.  And sometimes rumblings around any star player on a small market team regardless of years.  See Greene, Hunter and Skenes, Paul.

At a minimum, if they move him, Duran is off their wishlist.   Would you give up Early, Campbell abd Romero for one year of Skubal?

Ok, but I've literally posted a three team trade scenario where Duran is going to Cleveland or Philly.

and yes, as I and others have continuously stated here if you believe you can extend him then yes you do that trade over and over again. 

Skubal is the best pitcher on planet earth it really isn't very hard here to justify trading for him.  Whether or not it's realistic is irrelevant.  This is a fan forum and there's speculation that he's on the trade market, and a lot of these rumors have come out of DETROIT. 

Why wouldn't anyone want to kick the tires on that?

[notin]

13 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Ok, but I've literally posted a three team trade scenario where Duran is going to Cleveland or Philly.

and yes, as I and others have continuously stated here if you believe you can extend him then yes you do that trade over and over again. 

Skubal is the best pitcher on planet earth it really isn't very hard here to justify trading for him.  Whether or not it's realistic is irrelevant.  This is a fan forum and there's speculation that he's on the trade market, and a lot of these rumors have come out of DETROIT. 

Why wouldn't anyone want to kick the tires on that?

The extension is not part of the trade.  And Detroit didnt have to allow you a window to negotiate one.  In fact, they likely don’t give you one, because no one does that anymore.

Kick the tires? Sure. Trade Duran to Philly (is Cleveland still going for it?) for SS Aiden Miller and send Miller and LHP Kyle Harrison to Detroit.  I’m ok with it.  Is Detroit, however? (Is Philly?)

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, notin said:

Florida is also a state that allows you to cough all over a man while beating him with frozen iguanas.  And they view that as routine.  It probably has its own 3 digit police code…

Today is a frozen iguana day. 

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Today is a frozen iguana day. 

Also known as Florida-pops!  

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

Also known as Florida-pops!  

The most FL way to get a concussion. 

[notin]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The most FL way to get a concussion. 

If you go outside, don’t forget your motorcycle helmet  or steel parasol.  

Or both…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

If you go outside, don’t forget your motorcycle helmet  or steel parasol.  

Or both…

Definitely wear a helmet near any steel parasail

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, notin said:

The extension is not part of the trade.  And Detroit didnt have to allow you a window to negotiate one.  In fact, they likely don’t give you one, because no one does that anymore.

Kick the tires? Sure. Trade Duran to Philly (is Cleveland still going for it?) for SS Aiden Miller and send Miller and LHP Kyle Harrison to Detroit.  I’m ok with it.  Is Detroit, however? (Is Philly?)

I'm not saying you have to negotiate a done deal, but players, teams and agents talk to each other.  Even if they don't have a deal in place before executing a trade (which moon pointed out is rare) that doesn't mean you don't either have A. a frame work for one, or B. an ideal of what they're looking for. 

E.G.  Maybe Skubal is looking for 400 million.  which has been floated, so now you know about what it's going to take, maybe he takes a little under 400 if you're offering higher AAV....or maybe not.  But you have a ballpark figure and if you're not comfortable with that you don't make the trade. 

I get this is fantasy, lots of moving parts, but so is pretty much everything we talk about until it happens. 

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm not saying you have to negotiate a done deal, but players, teams and agents talk to each other.  Even if they don't have a deal in place before executing a trade (which moon pointed out is rare) that doesn't mean you don't either have A. a frame work for one, or B. an ideal of what they're looking for. 

E.G.  Maybe Skubal is looking for 400 million.  which has been floated, so now you know about what it's going to take, maybe he takes a little under 400 if you're offering higher AAV....or maybe not.  But you have a ballpark figure and if you're not comfortable with that you don't make the trade. 

I get this is fantasy, lots of moving parts, but so is pretty much everything we talk about until it happens. 

And in the hypothetical scenario I pointed out, there is no extension.  The Sox get a full season to work on one.  But any team acquiring Skubal has to be fully prepared for an outcome where it is only one year.  If you’re not comfortable with that possibility, Skubal is not a good target.

So would you give up Early, Campbell and Harrison for one year of Skubal?

[Hugh2]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

And in the hypothetical scenario I pointed out, there is no extension.  The Sox get a full season to work on one.  But any team acquiring Skubal has to be fully prepared for an outcome where it is only one year.  If you’re not comfortable with that possibility, Skubal is not a good target.

So would you give up Early, Campbell and Harrison for one year of Skubal?

If he was willing to negotiate a long term extension yes. 100% yes. 

That's probably more on John Henry than Skubal. 

BTV has this as a fair trade. 

 

[Hugh2]

Here's another 3 team trade I put together:

 

3 team trade between the Red Sox, Phillies, and Tigers

Red Sox get: Tarik Skubal/Josue Briceno

Phillies get: Jarren Duran/Connelly Early/Noah Song (just because)

Tigers get: Jesus Luzardo/Andrew Painter/Yhoiker Fajardo

[notin]

7 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

If he was willing to negotiate a long term extension yes. 100% yes. 

That's probably more on John Henry than Skubal. 

BTV has this as a fair trade. 

 

So what you’re saying is Skubal is NOT a good target, because you are not comfortable with the very real option of it being a one year deal.  That’s ok.  I’m not either. But it does happen.

Last year, the Cubs gave up their first round pick and top 100 prospect (Cam Smith), plus their starting 3b (Isaac Paredes) and a failed-starter-turned-adequate reliever (Hayden Wesneski) for one year of Kyle Tucker.  They did so because they were comfortable with the potential outcome that it was just one year. They didn’t forget to extend him; they tried and Team Tucker wasn’t willing to agree to their terms.  It happens.

The price they gave up for Tucker feels lighter than the proposed package for Skubal, but both worked on the same source.  And Tucker is no slouch - he is a top ten hitter using any metric…

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

So what you’re saying is Skubal is NOT a good target, because you are not comfortable with the very real option of it being a one year deal.  That’s ok.  I’m not either. But it does happen.

 

I literally NEVER said that. 

[notin]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

I literally NEVER said that. 

You literally did.

I asked repeatedly if you do it for one year, and you said “If he was willing to negotiate a long term extension yes. 100% yes.”  That’s not one year.  That is saying “no” to only one year.

The Dodgers took a risk trading for one year of Betts.  It worked out.  The Cubs took a risk trading  for of Tucker.  It did not. Neither team wanted it to be  one year only.  But both teams knew it was possible.

Anyone can be happy with the best case scenario.  But if you’re not comfortable with the worst case, it’s best to stay away.  Especially since the worst case is a very real possibility…

[notin]

22 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Here's another 3 team trade I put together:

 

3 team trade between the Red Sox, Phillies, and Tigers

Red Sox get: Tarik Skubal/Josue Briceno

Phillies get: Jarren Duran/Connelly Early/Noah Song (just because)

Tigers get: Jesus Luzardo/Andrew Painter/Yhoiker Fajardo

The Phillies seem like a good spot for Duran, but what i don’t like about them (which I’m sure doesn’t phase Breslow) is their two most valuable matches have clear paths to play in Philadelphia.  I’ve used Aiden Miller, but if they are serious about moving Bohm, they are less likely to deal him.

And Painter has been untouchable for a while now…

[Bellhorn04]

13 hours ago, notin said:

As hard as it gets to believe, some teams occasionally try to win a title.

Detroit won 87 games last year, finished second in the AL Central, won a post-season series, and are in a division with 3 opponents either heading the wrong way or just too far out of it.

Boston traded Betts after finishing 3rd in the AL East, 19 games out of first, and missing the postseason entirely.

These situations are not similar…

But the run differentials of the 2019 Red Sox and 2025 Tigers were virtually identical.

[notin]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But the run differentials of the 2019 Red Sox and 2025 Tigers were virtually identical.

And the teams they were competing with for a pennant were not…

[Hugh2]

46 minutes ago, notin said:

You literally did.

I asked repeatedly if you do it for one year, and you said “If he was willing to negotiate a long term extension yes. 100% yes.”  That’s not one year.  That is saying “no” to only one year.

The Dodgers took a risk trading for one year of Betts.  It worked out.  The Cubs took a risk trading  for of Tucker.  It did not. Neither team wanted it to be  one year only.  But both teams knew it was possible.

Anyone can be happy with the best case scenario.  But if you’re not comfortable with the worst case, it’s best to stay away.  Especially since the worst case is a very real possibility…

That's definitionally NOT the definition of LITERAL.  If I literally said that I would have said "If it's only for one year then I still make this trade"

It's either definitively one year

It's either definitively a trade with an extension

It's a trade with knowing the ballpark figure it would take to resign him (this is what I have said).  This makes an extension doable, and likely if you have the will to pay the money.  But it certainly does make it certain.  THat's a risk, and one I'm willing to take. 

Knowing the framework of an extension and with certain level of certainty and risk trading for guy is in NO WAY anagolous with "literally saying I'm ok with one year" 

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Depends on what your criteria is.  Are you saying that teams don't trade for players and players do not immediately sign an extension? because by that definition the Sox didn't trade for Crochet and then extend him but they did shortly afterwards and they likely had an ideal what it was going to take to extend him before they pulled that trigger. 

I recall there used to be trades made with a window to sign the guy or the trade was nullified. You don't see those made anymore. That is what I was getting at.

BTW, we traded for Crochet in mid December and signed him on April 1st. Did we talk to his agent before trading to get a general framework for an extension? Maybe. Maybe not.

I guess I don't trust leaving a Skubal extension up to JH, since I know it will likely be a record-setting contract.

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

So what you’re saying is Skubal is NOT a good target, because you are not comfortable with the very real option of it being a one year deal.  That’s ok.  I’m not either. But it does happen.

I do worry about this but also it's about how much the extension if for. If we pay top FA money to extend him, and why would he take less, then I'd just sign him, when he does become a FA.

If you think we can extend him for less than the top offer will be, then okay, but where is that written into the trade? (Hint: it's not.)

This reminds me of the Kimbrell trade, which I was against, because I felt ewe could just sign a great closer to top dollar. Why trade so many pieces for a guy making top dollar? I ended up being wrong, because the salaries for top closers rose exponentially, immediately after the trade. He was underpaid soon after the trade.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I recall there used to be trades made with a window to sign the guy or the trade was nullified. You don't see those made anymore. That is what I was getting at.

BTW, we traded for Crochet in mid December and signed him on April 1st. Did we talk to his agent before trading to get a general framework for an extension? Maybe. Maybe not.

I guess I don't trust leaving a Skubal extension up to JH, since I know it will likely be a record-setting contract.

 

Yamamoto's was. Wonder how many rival owners and their GMs viewed that contract after the World Series...

[notin]

52 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

That's definitionally NOT the definition of LITERAL.  If I literally said that I would have said "If it's only for one year then I still make this trade"

It's either definitively one year

It's either definitively a trade with an extension

It's a trade with knowing the ballpark figure it would take to resign him (this is what I have said).  This makes an extension doable, and likely if you have the will to pay the money.  But it certainly does make it certain.  THat's a risk, and one I'm willing to take. 

Knowing the framework of an extension and with certain level of certainty and risk trading for guy is in NO WAY anagolous with "literally saying I'm ok with one year" 

Ok.  My mistake. Apologies.

Myself, not comfortable with 1 year.  And talks of $400 mill for an extension do nothing to ease my mind.  This would be one case where I would try to come closer to a Tucker price where I gave up one good prospect, one good but replaceable starter, and some Fungibles reliever.  Might have to go a bit higher, but it probably doesn’t matter since Detroit already hung up on me.  Oh well.  Time to check in on Ryan…

 

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, notin said:

risk trading  for of Tucker.  It did not. Neither team wanted it to be  one year only.  But both teams knew it was possible.

Anyone can be happy with the best case scenario.  But if you’re not comfortable with the worst case, it’s best to stay away.  Especially since the worst case is a very real possibility…

Another wrinkle to consider is that if he doesn't sign an extension he's going into FA at a time where a lengthy, possibly season-ending work stoppage is about to happen. 

Easy to say you want to test the open market. Harder when someone puts $400m in front of you and you're almost certainly about to earn nothing for a lengthy period.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

Another wrinkle to consider is that if he doesn't sign an extension he's going into FA at a time where a lengthy, possibly season-ending work stoppage is about to happen. 

Easy to say you want to test the open market. Harder when someone puts $400m in front of you and you're almost certainly about to earn nothing for a lengthy period.

Unless it rolls out like last time.

Teams were giving out mega deals just before the work stoppage date.  I think the deal given to Semien still stands as the largest contract ever for a 2b.

And $400mill for Skubal is INSANE.  Thats $100mill over the largest contract for a pitcher ever.  And how many yr.  I don’t think any MLB team, including the Mets, including the Dodgers is not going to meet that demand so readily…

 

 

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Unless it rolls out like last time.

Teams were giving out mega deals just before the work stoppage date.  I think the deal given to Semien still stands as the largest contract ever for a 2b.

And $400mill for Skubal is INSANE.  Thats $100mill over the largest contract for a pitcher ever.  And how many yr.  I don’t think any MLB team, including the Mets, including the Dodgers is not going to meet that demand so readily…

 

 

I don't think we'll be seeing that next time, but we'll see. 

The $400m isn't my number, only what I've seen suggested. And while it's crazy, I have no doubt The Mets meet it if that's what it takes. Not least because they're desperate for pitching.

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, notin said:

Unless it rolls out like last time.

Teams were giving out mega deals just before the work stoppage date.  I think the deal given to Semien still stands as the largest contract ever for a 2b.

And $400mill for Skubal is INSANE.  Thats $100mill over the largest contract for a pitcher ever.  And how many yr.  I don’t think any MLB team, including the Mets, including the Dodgers is not going to meet that demand so readily…

The contract is paying him to be one of the 40 greatest pitchers of all time. It's worth it if he pitches like Kevin Brown did in his 30's. 

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The contract is paying him to be one of the 40 greatest pitchers of all time. It's worth it if he pitches like Kevin Brown did in his 30's. 

Since he turns 29, soon, it seems likely he's got 4-5 real good years followed by 2-4 more pretty good ones, unless some injury happens, or he greatly declines earlier than most pitchers do gradually around 31-34.

[Hugh2]

16 hours ago, notin said:

Unless it rolls out like last time.

Teams were giving out mega deals just before the work stoppage date.  I think the deal given to Semien still stands as the largest contract ever for a 2b.

And $400mill for Skubal is INSANE.  Thats $100mill over the largest contract for a pitcher ever.  And how many yr.  I don’t think any MLB team, including the Mets, including the Dodgers is not going to meet that demand so readily…

 

 

Every contract for the best player in the game is going to be insane from here on out. 

If we aren't willing to go a little crazy, we'll never sign the best players in baseball ever again. 

[Hugh2]

In ten years from now, if the same salary inflation rate holds and the best player in baseball reaches free agency we would be talking about a guy signing a 1.8 billion dollar contract.