The 2025 postseason, post-Red Sox

[moonslav59]

I'd like Bichette for 2B, but he hasn't hit 25 HRs since '21 and has never hit 30. We really need a bigger power bat than him. I guess we could improve our power by 10 at 2-3 positions rather than by 25 at 1 position, but I just don't see 2-3 positions being rolled over with major improvements, this winter.

We can be pretty certain that Brez, Cora & Co. are counting on Mayer to play 2B or 3B, so there is one non add position, and if it's 3B with no Bregman return, expect less there. That leaves 2 positions where major upgrades can occur: 1B and 2B/3B (wherever Mayer is not playing.)

2025 Position Numbers:

1B: .244 16 76 (.691 OPS)

2B: .241 12 56 (.670 OPS)

(3B was .265 22 77 and .777.)

I doubt we look to upgrade on offense by trading Rafaela. Upgrading Wong might help, but Narvaez was better than the average catcher on offense.

To me, we need a major power bat and it almost has to be 1B, 3B or 3B. Two significant power bats could do the same thing.

2024 ISO Leaders of available/possibly available players who can play the 3 positions we need:

.281 Schwarber DH (1B?) .323 in '25

.256 Suarez 1B/3B (.298 in '25)

.251 K Marte 2B (.233 in '25)

.235 Alonso 1B (.252 in '25)

.224 B Lowe 2B

.201 Moncada 2B/3B (.214 in '25)

.198 C Walker 1B

.196 Willson Contreras 1B (C)

.195 Hoskins 1B, .191 Naylor 1B

.188 Polanco 2B (.229 in '25)

.187 S Murphy C (1B?)

Our top ISO's:

.214 Abreu (one reason not to trade him: the other is GG in RF)

.198 Refsnyder (Need to bring him back)

.190 Casas

 

[notin]

On 10/22/2025 at 1:34 PM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

This is the post I was waiting for -- and trying futilely to articulate in my own.

Note to notin: I did cite career negative dWARs of both Hoskins and Bell to show how craptacular they'd improve our D (but only because I can't seem to find all the other metrics at MVP's fingertips)... bottom line -- what's the point of adding anyone if they're not going to be legitimate UPGRADES?

And nothing against moonslav, whose lists we always appreciate all offseason, but the 2026 Red Sox need to add more than decent players -- especially if we lose Bregman, OUR LONE ALL-STAR REGULAR. When I say decent, that includes a power hitter who may sock 40 homers but strikeout 200 times -- we need less Ks more than we need more HRs... change. the. culture.

Seattle just lost the pennant partially because in the 2nd inning of a tie game with two on and no outs, they sac bunted, so their #8 batter, Leo Rivas, could whiff and strand both. Rivas was 1-for-14 with 7 Ks in the ALCS -- if you're going to bunt them over for him, make him bunt, too -- at least then he might put the ball in play!!!   

Why talk about the M's? Because their production and flaws are similar to ours (except they're loaded with longball guys, while we lead the world in doubles). 

Yes that was my point - why add players that are not upgrades? 
 

Springer has a terrific season in 2025, but Toronto signed him in 2021.  And for 648 games before this year, Springer was worth 9.6 bWAR, averaged 22 HRs per year with an OPS+ of 112 and played below average defense per DRS, UZR and OAA.  All that for $100million.  For the last two plus years, that’s less than what the Sox have been getting out of Wilyer Abreu.

The Sox have had chances to spend, and Springer looks like he might have been a better investment than Trevor Story.  But going after him after 2020 to replace Betts just supports what Ive always said about free agency - it’s PR.  Springer was no Betts and for the first 4 years of his latest contract, wasn’t even Wilyer Abreu.  But he would have cost money.

I will give you this - Springer does meet your lower strikeout criterion…

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd like Bichette for 2B, but he hasn't hit 25 HRs since '21 and has never hit 30. We really need a bigger power bat than him. I guess we could improve our power by 10 at 2-3 positions rather than by 25 at 1 position, but I just don't see 2-3 positions being rolled over with major improvements, this winter.

We can be pretty certain that Brez, Cora & Co. are counting on Mayer to play 2B or 3B, so there is one non add position, and if it's 3B with no Bregman return, expect less there. That leaves 2 positions where major upgrades can occur: 1B and 2B/3B (wherever Mayer is not playing.)

2025 Position Numbers:

1B: .244 16 76 (.691 OPS)

2B: .241 12 56 (.670 OPS)

(3B was .265 22 77 and .777.)

I doubt we look to upgrade on offense by trading Rafaela. Upgrading Wong might help, but Narvaez was better than the average catcher on offense.

To me, we need a major power bat and it almost has to be 1B, 3B or 3B. Two significant power bats could do the same thing.

2024 ISO Leaders of available/possibly available players who can play the 3 positions we need:

.281 Schwarber DH (1B?) .323 in '25

.256 Suarez 1B/3B (.298 in '25)

.251 K Marte 2B (.233 in '25)

.235 Alonso 1B (.252 in '25)

.224 B Lowe 2B

.201 Moncada 2B/3B (.214 in '25)

.198 C Walker 1B

.196 Willson Contreras 1B (C)

.195 Hoskins 1B, .191 Naylor 1B

.188 Polanco 2B (.229 in '25)

.187 S Murphy C (1B?)

Our top ISO's:

.214 Abreu (one reason not to trade him: the other is GG in RF)

.198 Refsnyder (Need to bring him back)

.190 Casas

 

Bichette would be a nice fit. Ok Hes never hit 30HRs.  But I mean, he has hit 29.  Is that close enough?  Not to mention, he’d be replacing Alex Bregman, a man who has never hit 30HRs without the aid of Neanderthal Trashcan Thumping.

If the goal is to add a 40 home run hitter, that leaves Alonso and Schwarber as the only candidates.  I’m assuming (unsafely?) Dombrowski will not let Schwarber walk.  Alonso? I have no problem with him on a 5 year deal.  I’d prefer 5 years of Alonso over 5 years of Bregman. But I think Bregman is more likely.  After all, the Sox did have this exact same choice last year and chose Bregman…

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, notin said:

Bichette would be a nice fit. Ok Hes never hit 30HRs.  But I mean, he has hit 29.  Is that close enough?  Not to mention, he’d be replacing Alex Bregman, a man who has never hit 30HRs without the aid of Neanderthal Trashcan Thumping.

If the goal is to add a 40 home run hitter, that leaves Alonso and Schwarber as the only candidates.  I’m assuming (unsafely?) Dombrowski will not let Schwarber walk.  Alonso? I have no problem with him on a 5 year deal.  I’d prefer 5 years of Alonso over 5 years of Bregman. But I think Bregman is more likely.  After all, the Sox did have this exact same choice last year and chose Bregman…

He'd be a slight upgrade over Bregman, mostly due to his age. Yes, 29 HRs back in 2021. Big whoop.

We'd need a Bregman or Bichette AND a Suarez or Alonso.

To me, Bichette will cost way to much for 20-25 Hrs and maybe an .800 season. If all we do is Bichette (not Breggie), Gio and Matz, I'm not expecting any better results than 2025's. Of course, we can with better health and or better seasons from several players, but every team has that hope and prayer.

[notin]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He'd be a slight upgrade over Bregman, mostly due to his age. Yes, 29 HRs back in 2021. Big whoop.

We'd need a Bregman or Bichette AND a Suarez or Alonso.

To me, Bichette will cost way to much for 20-25 Hrs and maybe an .800 season. If all we do is Bichette (not Breggie), Gio and Matz, I'm not expecting any better results than 2025's. Of course, we can with better health and or better seasons from several players, but every team has that hope and prayer.

And the Sox could sign Suarez and Suarez and have even worse health and not make the playoffs.  Given the age of one Suarez and the recent history of the other, that wouldn’t be a surprising outcome.

The Sox first order of business is to replace whats leaving and get back to the status quo.  It might be Bregman and Gio, and I only consider that possibility because it was before.  
 

The Sox aren’t likely to fulfill our off-season plans.  I see them needing 4 players (SP, 1b/DH, 2b/3b, and RP). I’m probably wrong.  Their final plan will probably look nothing like that.  But I think I see a lot of grandiose plans that the Sox NEED a co-ace with Crochet and they NEED a 40 HR hitter and they NEED a slugging first baseman with power and when I see how this team struggled to hit, pitch and field, just he the f*** did they ever win 89 games?  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

And the Sox could sign Suarez and Suarez and have even worse health and not make the playoffs.  Given the age of one Suarez and the recent history of the other, that wouldn’t be a surprising outcome.

The Sox first order of business is to replace whats leaving and get back to the status quo.  It might be Bregman and Gio, and I only consider that possibility because it was before.  
 

The Sox aren’t likely to fulfill our off-season plans.  I see them needing 4 players (SP, 1b/DH, 2b/3b, and RP). I’m probably wrong.  Their final plan will probably look nothing like that.  But I think I see a lot of grandiose plans that the Sox NEED a co-ace with Crochet and they NEED a 40 HR hitter and they NEED a slugging first baseman with power and when I see how this team struggled to hit, pitch and field, just he the f*** did they ever win 89 games?  

We're just lucky other teams lost 89 games to Boston. And I keep including WC Game One in the postseason -- which we all know is more difficult than the regular -- so we can say the Sox won 90.

[moonslav59]

I will not be one bit surprised if we bring back close to the status quo. 

I will not look to that as something I agree to.

I can see 4-5 needs, but to me, we need to concentrate on adding high(er) quality, at the expense of filling all our needs. We have a lot of depth, so I'd rather pin my hopes and prayers one someone filling the 4th and 5th slots from within the system. 

Our SP'er depth can help cover the pen needs.

Players like Casas/Romy (1B) Mayer/Romy/DHam/Sogard (3B) or Mayer/Romy/Sogard/Eaton (3B) can be allowed to fill the other slot. I'd rather add 3 higher quality players than 5, and adding 5 would create a roster crunch we currently don't really have. An argument can be made to add 4 (less) quality players and then making a 3 for 1 trade to fill all 5 needs, but I still like the idea of just adding the 3 best players we can get for the winter budget we will have plus one big trade.

Sure, Suarez is a risk. I'm not thrilled with the idea, but I'm thinking he may be one guy JH allows to spend on, due to the lower length of the deal vs Alonso, Schwarber or Bichette. Suarez could be an enormous bust, and there are reasons he's bene traded so often and signed to shorter term deals.

If we keep it to 3 high quality players- one being by trade, then maybe we can hope for Alonso and someone like Polanco/Torres/Castro/Rengifo/BLowe for 2B.

Something like Alonso, Polanco and Lodolo might do it. If we could get Lodolo for Campbell, Garcia and Crawford and keep Duran and Abreu- all the better.

1. L Anthony LF

2. S Polanco 2B

3. L Duran DH (R Refsnyder/R Romy DH)

4. R Alonso 1B

5. L Abreu RF/ R Refsnyder RF

6. R Story SS

7. L Mayer 3B/ R Romy 3B

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Romy, Ref, Wong, DHam/Sogard/Eaton/Romero

SP: Crochet, Lodolo, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford

(AAA: Early, Tolle, Harrison, Dobbins, Perales)

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Matz, Weissert, Bernardino, Fitts, Hicks

(AAA: Murphy, Wink, Moran, Criswell, Kelly, Guerrero, Sandlin, Mullins, Song.)

[harmony]

7 hours ago, notin said:

Bichette at 2b makes the most sense for Boston of any non-pitcher free agent.  Hopefully he doesn’t mind the move.

Bo Bichette has posted 20.8 bWAR and an OPS+ of 121 in 748 MLB games.

In March 2022 the Red Sox signed Trevor Story when Story had posted 27.0 bWAR and an OPS+ of 112 in 745 MLB games.

Bichette turns 28 years old next March; Story was 29 years and three months old when he signed with Boston. Bichette is coming off a 3.4 bWAR season; Story was coming off a 4.3 bWAR season.

[notin]

4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

We're just lucky other teams lost 89 games to Boston. And I keep including WC Game One in the postseason -- which we all know is more difficult than the regular -- so we can say the Sox won 90.

Right, Fred.  The Sox got all those wins by luck…

[Old Red]

23 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Go JAYS!

Great game by the Yam Man tonight, and good win for the Dodgers.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Right, Fred.  The Sox got all those wins by luck…

Pytho said we shoulda won 92.

[Behindenemylines]

On 10/25/2025 at 4:38 PM, notin said:

Bichette would be a nice fit. Ok Hes never hit 30HRs.  But I mean, he has hit 29.  Is that close enough?  Not to mention, he’d be replacing Alex Bregman, a man who has never hit 30HRs without the aid of Neanderthal Trashcan Thumping.

If the goal is to add a 40 home run hitter, that leaves Alonso and Schwarber as the only candidates.  I’m assuming (unsafely?) Dombrowski will not let Schwarber walk.  Alonso? I have no problem with him on a 5 year deal.  I’d prefer 5 years of Alonso over 5 years of Bregman. But I think Bregman is more likely.  After all, the Sox did have this exact same choice last year and chose Bregman…

 

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Pytho said we shoulda won 92.

 

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Pytho said we shoulda won 92.

Going to have to  overpay to keep Bregman. Wouldn't go past 5 years. The Sox have to make this decision before they look at the rest of their lineup. Goal is to add more power and improve the infield defense. Finding a number 2 starter is still number one priority. 

 

 

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said:

Going to have to  overpay to keep Bregman. Wouldn't go past 5 years. The Sox have to make this decision before they look at the rest of their lineup. Goal is to add more power and improve the infield defense. Finding a number 2 starter is still number one priority. 

I read somewhere the cost might end up being $110M/4. If so, he shoulda taken the remaining $80M/2 from the Sox.

I'd probably offer him that, but we'd still need a bigger bat.

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I read somewhere the cost might end up being $110M/4. If so, he shoulda taken the remaining $80M/2 from the Sox.

I'd probably offer him that, but we'd still need a bigger bat.

Opting out just to get another 30M over 2 seasons? We'll see. 

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Opting out just to get another 30M over 2 seasons? We'll see. 

Not very likely with BorAss around.

[Old Red]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I read somewhere the cost might end up being $110M/4. If so, he shoulda taken the remaining $80M/2 from the Sox.

I'd probably offer him that, but we'd still need a bigger bat.

The prediction I saw was $150M-$200M for 5 years.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The prediction I saw was $150M-$200M for 5 years.

5/200 is just silly. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

5/200 is just silly. 

It's more than DET offered him when he was a year younger.

It won't be $110M/4 and likely under $150M/5.

I'd guess between $120M/4 & $140M/5.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

5/200 is just silly. 

I agree, but ownership in MLB have given Out some silly contracts with Bogey’s being one of them. Anything over 2-3 years for Bregman, and $40M/yr is silly IMO.

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I agree, but ownership in MLB have given Out some silly contracts with Bogey’s being one of them. Anything over 2-3 years for Bregman, and $40M/yr is silly IMO.

He wasn't offered that silly amount last winter. I'm not sure what changed?

Inflation? Maybe

Age. Yes.

Health outlook? Yes (for the bad.)

[drewski6]

On 10/25/2025 at 4:38 PM, notin said:

Bichette would be a nice fit. Ok Hes never hit 30HRs.  But I mean, he has hit 29.  Is that close enough?  Not to mention, he’d be replacing Alex Bregman, a man who has never hit 30HRs without the aid of Neanderthal Trashcan Thumping.

If the goal is to add a 40 home run hitter, that leaves Alonso and Schwarber as the only candidates.  I’m assuming (unsafely?) Dombrowski will not let Schwarber walk.  Alonso? I have no problem with him on a 5 year deal.  I’d prefer 5 years of Alonso over 5 years of Bregman. But I think Bregman is more likely.  After all, the Sox did have this exact same choice last year and chose Bregman…

Im not sure about that. they got involved with bregman late, it might have been a timing thing. But it might also have been a preference thing. Cant play alonso at 2b.

[drewski6]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I read somewhere the cost might end up being $110M/4. If so, he shoulda taken the remaining $80M/2 from the Sox.

I'd probably offer him that, but we'd still need a bigger bat.

no way he settles for 110/4.

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

5/200 is just silly. 

he'll ask for 5/200 and get 5/165. Maybe some deferred money.  If he has to settle it will be 4/135

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's more than DET offered him when he was a year younger.

It won't be $110M/4 and likely under $150M/5.

I'd guess between $120M/4 & $140M/5.

I can see 5/170 with deferments that push the total true (present) value down to 140.

[notin]

Just now, drewski6 said:

Im not sure about that. they got involved with bregman late, it might have been a timing thing. But it might also have been a preference thing. Cant play alonso at 2b.

And they never played Bregman at 2b.  While Cora wanted him there, it’s possible that was because he knew a position change wouldn’t fly with Devers.  Breslow was all about Bregman at 3b.

Could they have signed Alonso for 1b, kept Devers at 3b and moved Casas to DH?  Not sure why not.  2b would probably have played out exactly the same in tjis scenario…

[drewski6]

28 minutes ago, notin said:

And they never played Bregman at 2b.  While Cora wanted him there, it’s possible that was because he knew a position change wouldn’t fly with Devers.  Breslow was all about Bregman at 3b.

Could they have signed Alonso for 1b, kept Devers at 3b and moved Casas to DH?  Not sure why not.  2b would probably have played out exactly the same in tjis scenario…

If the right hand is truly not talking to the left hand like that, than thats wild.  Due to the timing of it all, I find it more likely that they just went hard after bregman because he was the last man standing and they figured theyd figure out the position.

Breslow doesnt decide where people play tho.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

no way he settles for 110/4.

I'm not sure anyone offers him $140M/5, so maybe he settles on near $120M/4. The Tigers offered him $170M/6, last winter. That would come to about $140M/5, now or $115M/4, if pro-rated, and he's a year older and has a slightly higher injury risk factor.

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If the right hand is truly not talking to the left hand like that, than thats wild.  Due to the timing of it all, I find it more likely that they just went hard after bregman because he was the last man standing and they figured theyd figure out the position.

Breslow doesnt decide where people play tho.

After all the real or fake runs at big names, I do think they felt a great need to make a show to the fans that they were not lying by signing Breggie. I'm not sure the sham worked, as it turned out to be just a one and done, and then shortly afterwards, they dumped Devers, so if anything, we are behind where we were before the Bregman signing, last winter. Way behind.

[notin]

51 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If the right hand is truly not talking to the left hand like that, than thats wild.  Due to the timing of it all, I find it more likely that they just went hard after bregman because he was the last man standing and they figured theyd figure out the position.

Breslow doesnt decide where people play tho.

Cora was the only one to mention 2b, which he did in an article on NESN.   But he also never played him there.  So it doesn’t look like whether or not Alonso could have played 2b was ever an option.

Bregman might have been “last man standing,” but not by much; Alonso signed with the Mets a mere 3 days previous.  And since they probably started talks with Bregman more than 72 hours before signing him, Alonso was always there as an option.

Maybe they did talk to Pete’s people and at the time, a pillow contract was off the table?  Not sure.  But the Sox definitely had ample opportunity to talk to both, but we’re far more dedicated in their pursuit of Bregman…

[Kimmi]

On 10/24/2025 at 9:42 AM, drewski6 said:

Bruins and celtics are not particularly watchable at the moment, either

There's always figure skating and the upcoming winter Olympics.  🙃