The 2025 postseason, post-Red Sox

[moonslav59]

I thought TOR had some serious weak areas and were not much better than us or the NYY/SEA/DET...

I'm not so sure, anymore, but one thing that is very helpful- just look at previous Sox championship seasons- is that their top SP'ers pitched from wire to wire, even if not having their best seasons. They showed up. Ours did not.

GS/ ERA+

32 Gausman 119 (despite turning 84)

31 Bassitt 108 (despite turning 86)

30 Berrios 102 (despite turning 80)

Okay, 34, 36 and 30, but still: 93 starts from their big 3.

Their top 7 batters by most PAs were all over .710 (about the league norm.) Then, they had two guys with over 225 PAs over .795.

 

The Sox had...

32 Crochet 159

9 Houck 51

0 Crawford (out all year)

Okay, maybe call one of these guys are #3:

26 Gio 120

28 Bello 123

These two plus Crochet did equal 86 GS, and they were a major reason we made the playoffs, but imagine if Houck & Crawford pitched like 2024 and we had Gio & Bello doing this well!

In all fairness, the Sox did have all of our top 9 batters by PAs at .708 or better, but one was Devers. Toro (.659)  was #10 and KC at #11 (.664) but Ref helped out a lot at 209 PAs (.838) and Yoshida (.696) came on at the end to give us the boost we needed.

Check these GS numbers out in our ring years:

2004: 33 Pedro, 33 lowe, 32 Schilling, 30 Wake, 29 Arroyo! That was amazing!

2007: 32 Dice K, 31 Wake, 30 Beckett, 24 Schill, 34 Tavarez+ Lester

2013: 33 Lester, 29 Lackey, 29 Dempster, 27 Doubront, 26 Buch+ Peavy

2018: 33 Porcello, 30 Price, 27 Sale, 23 ERod, 35 Nate/PomPom/Johnson

 

 

 

 

[drewski6]

Yankees had a lot of injuries to their pitching staff too.  I wouldnt be cursing the bad luck to our SP as a reason we are golfing though.  We scored 6 runs over 3 games against the yankees.  Toronto scored 29 over 3 against the yankees

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Yankees had a lot of injuries to their pitching staff too.  I wouldnt be cursing the bad luck to our SP as a reason we are golfing though.  We scored 6 runs over 3 games against the yankees.  Toronto scored 29 over 3 against the yankees

No doubt, and look no further than the Astros over the last few years and all their top pitcher injuries and defections

You can't go into a season thinking the only way we can win a ring is for our top 3 pitchers to get 90 GS'd.

I also agree with you on the idea that you can't go into the season thinking all our young bats will be healthy and improving from 2025 to 2026. You actually have to plan on a couple regressions from the kids as well as some age regression from Story, Yoshida and maybe more regression from Duran, too. We need more surety.

Maybe "surety" should be the theme of this winter.

That being said, I think it is also realistic to expect some jumps from a few kids. We have so many pre-prime and early-prime players, that it makes sense to think most will likely improve.

Age

Pre-prime

21 Anthony

22 Mayer, Jh Garcia

23 Campbell

24 Rafaela

25 Casas

 

Early prime:

26 Narvaez

27-28 Duran, Romy,  DHam & Sogard

 

Prime:

29: lowe & Wong

30-31: Yoshida

 

Ending prime:

32: Story

Nobody over 33, unless Refsnyder returns. It's also okay to project improvements.

 

[Kimmi]

19 hours ago, notin said:

Boone is certainly doing his part.  Season on the line.  Tomorrow is no guarantee.  But let Rodon give up 6 runs…

Ugh.  I don't like giving the Yankees any inkling that they have a chance to come back and win.  If this goes to Game 5, I think the Blue Jays are toast, despite the fact that they'll be back in Toronto.

[notin]

Craziest stat of 2025 Postseason

In the Cubs-Brewers series , there have been 27 runs scored so far. 18 of them scored in the first inning…

[Bellhorn04]

Incredible day at the ball yards yesterday:

-Yankees eliminated!

-All 3 of the other series extended.

-Quinn Priester gives up 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning. 

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Incredible day at the ball yards yesterday:

-Yankees eliminated!

-All 3 of the other series extended.

-Quinn Priester gives up 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning. 

John Holobetz would never.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Incredible day at the ball yards yesterday:

-Yankees eliminated!

-All 3 of the other series extended.

-Quinn Priester gives up 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning. 

Yankees sleep with the fishes wearing red socks...

... and after all that -- the defending AL champion New York Judges won a total of 97 games, but only played exactly one more week than the Dread Sox, who finished with 90 Ws. 

But give NY credit for going for it at the trade deadline and acquiring closer David Bednar, who pitched in 5 of 7 postseason games, and only cost two extremely young prospects from Florida A ball.

Bednar, who pitched 6 innings in the playoffs and struck out 9 batters with a WHIP of 0.66, is now a free agent...

[moonslav59]

How about those Tigers?

They had one of the most epic regular season collapses, barely squeaked into the playoffs and now are a game away from advancing into their third playoff series.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How about those Tigers?

They had one of the most epic regular season collapses, barely squeaked into the playoffs and now are a game away from advancing into their third playoff series.

Detroit Floppers! 

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Detroit Floppers! 

Perhaps, the "Flippers." 

Let's see.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

39 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How about those Tigers?

They had one of the most epic regular season collapses, barely squeaked into the playoffs and now are a game away from advancing into their third playoff series.

Rooting hard against Detroit -- 25 games over .500 on August 23 -- who for some mysterious reason on the last day of the season couldn't hit a career minor leaguer mysteriously called up to start, after an 0-9, 7 ERA at Worcester...

(... except Javy Baez, who crushed a hanger because that's the only way he swings at every pitch).

 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

How about those Tigers?

They had one of the most epic regular season collapses, barely squeaked into the playoffs and now are a game away from advancing into their third playoff series.

The randomness and tiny margins between success and failure in baseball are like nothing else.  

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The randomness and tiny margins between success and failure in baseball are like nothing else.  

Exactly, and I often fall prey to the same habit. I assume the trends continue.

I used to be strongly against the idea that the playoffs are more crapshoot than seeing skill- based results. I'm starting to swing more to the middle.

[Bellhorn04]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Exactly, and I often fall prey to the same habit. I assume the trends continue.

I used to be strongly against the idea that the playoffs are more crapshoot than seeing skill- based results. I'm starting to swing more to the middle.

The 8 team system had less crapshoot factor because for one thing, all the series were 4 out of 7.

Now you are guaranteed to have to get through a 3 out of 5.  The Dodgers had the 3rd best record in the NL this year, but with the new setup they have to get through a 2 out of 3 followed by a 3 out of 5.

Another thing that's probably adding to the crapshoot factor is all the pitching injuries.  You've got teams making the playoffs that are down at least one of their best starters.  

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The 8 team system had less crapshoot factor because for one thing, all the series were 4 out of 7.

Now you are guaranteed to have to get through a 3 out of 5.  The Dodgers had the 3rd best record in the NL this year, but with the new setup they have to get through a 2 out of 3 followed by a 3 out of 5.

Another thing that's probably adding to the crapshoot factor is all the pitching injuries.  You've got teams making the playoffs that are down at least one of their best starters.  

Baseball was always a little random (Cardinals in 06 with 83 wins and 27th ranked pitching staff as a prime example), but everything you mentioned has really heightened the randomness IMO. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

46 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Another thing that's probably adding to the crapshoot factor is all the pitching injuries.  You've got teams making the playoffs that are down at least one of their best starters.  

Key starters on IL for playoff teams  -- Philly: Wheeler, Chicago: Horton, Mil: Woodruff, NY: Cole, Boston: Giolito, Houck ('24 All-Star), Seattle: Woo, Toronto: Bassitt-Berrios-Frances?

The Dodgers sign so many star pitchers, they always have someone hurt or coming back from time off. Now they've identified who they want to start -- Ohtani, Snell and Yamamoto -- and who they want as relievers -- Glasnow, Sheehan and Sasaki (the latter trio must be nice to have in bullpen games).

[Kimmi]

6 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The randomness and tiny margins between success and failure in baseball are like nothing else.  

It's the beauty of the game and one of the many reasons that I love this sport so much.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

It's the beauty of the game and one of the many reasons that I love this sport so much.

Yes, and on so many levels.

A round ball on a rounded bat. Microscopic differences can make a huge impact.

[Kimmi]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, and on so many levels.

A round ball on a rounded bat. Microscopic differences can make a huge impact.

In the last week before the playoffs, the Red Sox took 2 of 3 from the Blue Jays in Toronto.  Then the Yankees took 2 of 3 from the Red Sox in the wildcard round.  Then, the Blue Jays took 3 of 4 from the Yankees.  Not to mention we dominated the Yankees in the regular season.

I don't think we were overmatched in the wildcard round.  I don't think it was the lack of a big bat.  It's just one of those things that happens in any short series.

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

In the last week before the playoffs, the Red Sox took 2 of 3 from the Blue Jays in Toronto.  Then the Yankees took 2 of 3 from the Red Sox in the wildcard round.  Then, the Blue Jays took 3 of 4 from the Yankees.  Not to mention we dominated the Yankees in the regular season.

I don't think we were overmatched in the wildcard round.  I don't think it was the lack of a big bat.  It's just one of those things that happens in any short series.

Agreed. We can't pinpoint one reason we lost a game based on microscopic differentials.

[moonslav59]

19 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Dodgers sign so many star pitchers, they always have someone hurt or coming back from time off. 

Our injured pitchers never come back.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed. We can't pinpoint one reason we lost a game based on microscopic differentials.

Jazz had measurably longer strides than Eaton.

Jazz scored from first base on contact with two outs for the winning run. Eaton stopped at third despite running on a 3-2 pitch with two outs and the batter hitting one up the middle that an infielder dove to knock down, before bouncing a throw past the first baseman.

But enough of these two flawed teams that were closer in talent than most fans and pundits realize.

Boston could've swept, but New York could've swept, too. The Yankees choked in Game One, when they didn't score with the bases loaded and no outs in the bottom of the 9th. 

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

15 hours ago, Kimmi said:

It's the beauty of the game and one of the many reasons that I love this sport so much.

Agreed.  It's why I love sports, all sports, because you just never know what is going to happen.  But baseball, like hocky, can be so dependent on luck.  A guy could hit a rocket right at the 3rd baseman with the bases loaded, then a blooper wins the game. 

 

 

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

I suddenly developed a distain for Jazz Chisolm.  The look of confusion on his face after the held the ball at 2nd, then was seen laughing a few moments later, really got to me.  Sports are more fun with heroes and villains so I'll just root against Jazz from now on,  

[dgalehouse]

Have to feel bad for Orion Kerkering, who panicked in a critical moment and uncorked a wild throw in an attempt to get a force out at the plate. It ended the game and the Phillies season. Baseball can be cruel at times.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

Have to feel bad for Orion Kerkering, who panicked in a critical moment and uncorked a wild throw in an attempt to get a force out at the plate. It ended the game and the Phillies season. Baseball can be cruel at times.

I think he was gonna be safe, anyway.

[notin]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think he was gonna be safe, anyway.

1.  No.  Hyesong Kim missed the plate entirely and came back to touch it.

2. Kerkering had plenty of time to throw to first and get the runner.  There were 2 outs.

[notin]

7 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Jazz had measurably longer strides than Eaton.

Jazz scored from first base on contact with two outs for the winning run. Eaton stopped at third despite running on a 3-2 pitch with two outs and the batter hitting one up the middle that an infielder dove to knock down, before bouncing a throw past the first baseman.

But enough of these two flawed teams that were closer in talent than most fans and pundits realize.

Boston could've swept, but New York could've swept, too. The Yankees choked in Game One, when they didn't score with the bases loaded and no outs in the bottom of the 9th. 

Jazz didn’t knock the ball down; he caught it cleanly.  Had it just been knocked down, maybe Hudson does send Eaton, depending how far it rolled away from Jazz…

[Bellhorn04]

Congratulations Mariners and condolences Tigers.  15 innings in Game 5, wow.