A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Top Batter Signings & OPS:

$240M/4 Tucker .733 in 358 PAs

$175M/5 Bregman .685 in 403

$163M/5 Bellinger ,774 in 374

$155M/5 Alonso .810 in 393

$150M/5 Schwarber .936 in 384

$126M/3 Bichette .689 in 392

$93M/5 Naylor .669 in 363

$60M/4 Okamoto .766 in 355

$45M/3 Realmuto .617 in 295

$40M/2 Polanco .532 in 61

$34M/2 Murakami .938 in 246

$29M/2 O'Hearn .807 in 314

$23M/2 Yaz .664 in 243

I welcomed Bregman back, and assuming no Schwarber, wanted Alonso. If no Breggie, I wanted Bichette or Okamoto. 

I did not want Tucker (outfield was overloaded) or Murakami (oops). 

I also wanted nothing to do with Geno Suarez. He's -0.9 WAR so far; Bichette is at least positive: 0.5 WAR. 

Bregman -- as Durbin as he's been -- is 2.2 WAR, with only two Cubs ahead of him. They're 50-40, so who really knows how much of the different ways he's helped (or hurt) them...

[Hugh2]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

Wins and losses.  There will be a season. No one wants to miss out and watch MLB lose fans to Jelle’s Marble Racing…

Right, because they've never not played a season or a partial season before, that's just never happened. 

I mean.....didn't people want to make money during all those other lost games as well? 

From what's being reported, both sides are miles and miles apart and there is a real fear in the industry of a lost season, or at least a partially lost season.

The fact that people like money doesn't negate that risk any more than every other strike or shut down that has happened in other years, sports or industries.

Even if they do come to an agreement pre season, the risk is there, and it's high, and everyone is going to factor that into the equation at this point.  If you're trading for 1.5 years of control of someone there is a REAL risk you're only trading for .5 years of control. 

[notin]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Right, because they've never not played a season or a partial season before, that's just never happened. 

I mean.....didn't people want to make money during all those other lost games as well? 

From what's being reported, both sides are miles and miles apart and there is a real fear in the industry of a lost season, or at least a partially lost season.

The fact that people like money doesn't negate that risk any more than every other strike or shut down that has happened in other years, sports or industries.

Even if they do come to an agreement pre season, the risk is there, and it's high, and everyone is going to factor that into the equation at this point.  If you're trading for 1.5 years of control of someone there is a REAL risk you're only trading for .5 years of control. 

Fair.

While we have all seen this “miles apart” act from both sides before, it’s only impacted the season twice in the past 45 years.  And not at all in the past 30, so I’m not worried.  But things can change. I’m somewhat encouraged anout the amount of discussion in June.

We have both seen people say things like “trading Chapman means giving up 2027 as well” or something similar.  To me, that’s  just crazy commentary…

[Hugh2]

Just now, notin said:

Fair.

While we have all seen this “miles apart” act from both sides before, it’s only impacted the season twice in the past 45 years.  And not at all in the past 30, so I’m not worried.  But things can change. I’m somewhat encouraged anout the amount of discussion in June.

We have both seen people say things like “trading Chapman means giving up 2027 as well” or something similar.  To me, that’s  just crazy commentary…

The rhetoric that surrounds makes me more worried about 2027 than past years.  Although if I was a betting man I'd bet against a total lost season.  It's far more realistic that a partial season is lost. 

Still, that changes the calculus in trading for guys.  Although I suppose it changes it for everyone else as well. 

I don't think trading Chapman is giving up on 2027.  I think you have to take advantage of what you can get for him vs. the odds of him being just as elite at 39 years old next season.  Even if you weren't trading Chapman I'd be wanting to add a closer type reliever to hedge against Chapman entering some kind of steep decline.  

[notin]

20 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I welcomed Bregman back, and assuming no Schwarber, wanted Alonso. If no Breggie, I wanted Bichette or Okamoto. 

I did not want Tucker (outfield was overloaded) or Murakami (oops). 

I also wanted nothing to do with Geno Suarez. He's -0.9 WAR so far; Bichette is at least positive: 0.5 WAR. 

Bregman -- as Durbin as he's been -- is 2.2 WAR, with only two Cubs ahead of him. They're 50-40, so who really knows how much of the different ways he's helped (or hurt) them...

I actually wanted Marte (2.0 bWAR), Paredes (2.0 bWAR) or Miguel Vargas (3.3 bWAR).

But I’m happy with Durbin right now.  Not so much as recently as May…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, notin said:

I actually wanted Marte (2.0 bWAR), Paredes (2.0 bWAR) or Miguel Vargas (3.3 bWAR).

But I’m happy with Durbin right now.  Not so much as recently as May…

Marte still fills the most voids in the Red Sox line-up and batting order. But he also plays for a second-place team very much in the playoff picture with a staff ace who won the World this year and made the NL All-Star team.

[notin]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

The rhetoric that surrounds makes me more worried about 2027 than past years.  Although if I was a betting man I'd bet against a total lost season.  It's far more realistic that a partial season is lost. 

Still, that changes the calculus in trading for guys.  Although I suppose it changes it for everyone else as well. 

I don't think trading Chapman is giving up on 2027.  I think you have to take advantage of what you can get for him vs. the odds of him being just as elite at 39 years old next season.  Even if you weren't trading Chapman I'd be wanting to add a closer type reliever to hedge against Chapman entering some kind of steep decline.  

If the Sox trade for MLB players, I’d be hoping for a lot more than 1.5 years anyway.   Pre-arb is ideal.  But for the most part, contending teams won’t be trading starters off their MLB roster at the deadline.

My number one target would be Matt Shaw, but doubtful any Sox package is enough.  If Shaw is dealt, it’s more likely for Tarik Skubal than Sonny Gray and/or Chapman…

 

 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Marte still fills the most voids in the Red Sox line-up and batting order. But he also plays for a second-place team very much in the playoff picture with a staff ace who won the World this year and made the NL All-Star team.

True, I was hoping some of his childish behaviors last year would make him available.  Reports varied on whether or not he was.

Maybe the Sox should target Alex Freeland.  The Dodgers have been dealing away high minors third baseman that quickly turn into All Stars with regularity lately…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

True, I was hoping some of his childish behaviors last year would make him available.  Reports varied on whether or not he was.

Maybe the Sox should target Alex Freeland.  The Dodgers have been dealing away high minors third baseman that quickly turn into All Stars with regularity lately…

With so many clubs looking for pitching, the Red Sox should be able to land some promising position prospects. Like I said, this deadline is worth waiting out for the highest bidders.

No prospects are guaranteed big leaguers, but the more you collect, the better the chances.

The dilemma Brez faces is that of all those teams the Sox have to pass for a wild card, suddenly five of them have as many or more losses than Boston right now.

 

[notin]

20 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

With so many clubs looking for pitching, the Red Sox should be able to land some promising position prospects. Like I said, this deadline is worth waiting out for the highest bidders.

No prospects are guaranteed big leaguers, but the more you collect, the better the chances.

 

 

Like the 2021 Cubs that unloaded Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant at the deadline, devastating their fans.  In return that got a handful of fringey players like Caleb Killian, Alexander Canario and Kevin Alcantara.  But they also managed to get Pete Crow-Armstrong (from the Mets for Baez) and that one hit made that whole firesale worthwhile eventually…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

28 minutes ago, notin said:

Like the 2021 Cubs that unloaded Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant at the deadline, devastating their fans.  In return that got a handful of fringey players like Caleb Killian, Alexander Canario and Kevin Alcantara.  But they also managed to get Pete Crow-Armstrong (from the Mets for Baez) and that one hit made that whole firesale worthwhile eventually…

Great example. Right now, PCA may be the front runner for NL MVP.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I have my doubts about two more power bats.

im assuming the Sox at most trade Chapman, Gray, Duran and Guerrero.  So that leaves 

C: Narvaez?

1b: Contreras

2b: Mayer?

3b: Durbin

SS: Story

LF: Anthony

CF: Rafaela

RF:  Abreu

DH: ?

Certainly they can add a DH.  They could add a catcher that can hit.  Doubtful they have given up on Mayer, but a 2b upgrade is possible.  But unless the catcher has power, i don’t see adding two power bats.  
 

And a leadoff hitter with good OBP would probably be more important…

I think adding a catcher with power makes a lot of sense.

Maybe sign Jeffers as a C/DH or trade for William Contreras (1 more year of control) to unite the brothers. Both are RHBs.

Next, I think we have to look at counting Mayer & Story as one middle infield slot filled, and to me I'd view Story as a 2Bman and Mayer as either.

We also can use a DH or OF/DH, if we do trade Duran. Even if we sign Jeffers, we can still add an OF/DH type.

That's 3 slots to find two big bats. I'd be fine if one was a power RHB and the other a high OBP guy. When you look at the highest OBP guys since 2025 (400+ PAs) Anthony ranks 8th at .383, but we could still use another high OBP guy in front of Contreras, Abreu and the new power RHB.

Yordan Alvarez is #2, but he is a pipe dream.

Kurtz is #5 and may be one as well.

Yandy Diaz is #12 and may be getting close to the payday the Rays avoid ($13M for 2027.)

Hey, Jeffers is #18 (.368) and has power. Maybe he can bat 2nd.

Here's an option: Gleyber Torres as a FA signing and the next 2Bman. His .366 OBP ranks him T22nd with Schwarber.

Spencer Horwitz at DH? (.367) O'Hearn (.358)?

Trade for Keaschall (.355?)

William Contreras is .355- just below Willson at .357.

KMarte is at .354 and still has power (switch hitter)

Paredes .349. JP Crawford (FA) at .345

I have no idea who we might have in mind, but there are enough names here to think adding two should not be extremely difficult. Hell, if JH allows more spending, adding 3 can be accomplished.

C: Jeffers + Narvaez/Wong

1B: Contreras (Horwitz/Casas)

2B: Story/Mayer/Romy (Seagler)

3B: Durbin (Mayer/Eaton)

SS: JP Crawford (Mayer/Monasterio)

LF: Anthony (Ward/Eaton)

CF: Rafaela (Ward)

RF: Abreu (Ward/Eaton)

DH: Horwitz/Jeffers/Romy/Casas

Crawford turns 32 in January and has hit under .700 every other year for 5 years, so maybe G Torres would be a better fit. He's also a RHB not a lefty like JP. That would help balance the LHB Mayer.

So, maybe this...

1. Anthony LF

2. Torres 2B

3. Abreu RF

4. Contreras 1B

5. Jeffers C/DH

6. Horwitz/Romy DH

7. Rafaela CF

8. Durbin 3B

9. Mayer/Story SS platoon

 

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I actually wanted Marte (2.0 bWAR), Paredes (2.0 bWAR) or Miguel Vargas (3.3 bWAR).

But I’m happy with Durbin right now.  Not so much as recently as May…

We shoulda done two. Coulda is another question after the Suarez buy.

[notin]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We shoulda done two. Coulda is another question after the Suarez buy.

I have no idea if Vargas was available or for what…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

With so many clubs looking for pitching, the Red Sox should be able to land some promising position prospects. Like I said, this deadline is worth waiting out for the highest bidders.

No prospects are guaranteed big leaguers, but the more you collect, the better the chances.

As of now, I see us as buyers, and you are spot on with this deadline's outlook.

With so many teams in contention, the bidding wars could be extreme, and even fringe players like IKF, Coulombe, Guerrero and maybe even Sandoval could net a decent return.

It remains to be seen what Duran might fetch, but someone will take a flyer on him and hope to "fix him."

Gray and Chapman should be highly sought after and net very substantial returns.

I'd hesitate to sell Contreras and Whitlock, who are controlled beyond 2027, but I'd listen for the right overpay.

Sell this summer.

Buy this winter.

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

I have no idea if Vargas was available or for what…

Indeed, and it seemed like AZ wanted too much for KMarte, who is not doing great, so far in 2026. I still think Paredes was reasonable "the target," but HOU did not want Duran. They wanted Abreu back. Maybe some sort of three way deal could have landed us Paredes for Duran, and maybe we'd have had to pitch in a prospect, but it sure would have helped the infield situation had we added Paredes & Durbin.

I still look back at BLowe and even Donovan as big what ifs, and we know they were available- LHB and all. BLowe has power. He averaged 35 HRs per 650 from 2021-2025 and has 21 in 84 games this year. While the .316 OBP is not great, in MLB today, that is not too bad.

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, notin said:

If the Sox trade for MLB players, I’d be hoping for a lot more than 1.5 years anyway.   Pre-arb is ideal.  But for the most part, contending teams won’t be trading starters off their MLB roster at the deadline.

My number one target would be Matt Shaw, but doubtful any Sox package is enough.  If Shaw is dealt, it’s more likely for Tarik Skubal than Sonny Gray and/or Chapman…

 

 

agreed.  If the Sox are buyers I'd like to see them go after bats with multiple years of control.  I'd happily get on the Matt Shaw train with you. 

[vegasbob]

12 hours ago, notin said:

No matter what he’s not likely to be in MLB next April.  Worcester seems as good as anywhere for him…

At least Dalbec stayed available .   Casas  will have a big hill in Worcester to climb  to get back to MLB

[notin]

1 minute ago, vegasbob said:

At least Dalbec stayed available .   Casas  will have a big hill in Worcester to climb  to get back to MLB

Possible, but he has 3 option years to climb it.  Although he probably only gets one chance…

[Hugh2]

39 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

At least Dalbec stayed available .   Casas  will have a big hill in Worcester to climb  to get back to MLB

If we had a player with Dalbecs health and Casas talent we'd have a good everyday 1B under team control right now. 

Of course.......we would have never traded for Contreras so how much better off would we be???

[UtahSox]

3 hours ago, notin said:

I have my doubts about two more power bats.

im assuming the Sox at most trade Chapman, Gray, Duran and Guerrero.  So that leaves 

C: Narvaez?

1b: Contreras

2b: Mayer?

3b: Durbin

SS: Story

LF: Anthony

CF: Rafaela

RF:  Abreu

DH: ?

Certainly they can add a DH.  They could add a catcher that can hit.  Doubtful they have given up on Mayer, but a 2b upgrade is possible.  But unless the catcher has power, i don’t see adding two power bats.  
 

And a leadoff hitter wuth good OBP would probably be more important…

I think you could see the orioles blow up their 2026 experiment. Alonso could be available? Jeffers & Lowe are the free agents moon is hot and heavy on.
I still think there is an outside chance Witt, Abrams, or Neto could be had for right prospects. Obviously Witt would be killer, inevitably would include both Mayer & Arias in the package. Abrams I think eventually moves off short, so he wouldn’t block Arias if you were able to keep him out of the deal. And Neto is the least valuable of the 3. But would add some pop at SS. Although if Neto is the guy, I kinda might rather just wait for Peña in FA after next season. 
 

The one thing we can’t do is convince ourselves 26 was a confluence of bad luck, and run it back with the lineup shown above!
 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

agreed.  If the Sox are buyers I'd like to see them go after bats with multiple years of control.  I'd happily get on the Matt Shaw train with you. 

Shaw is the perfect hit. Capable of batting leadoff and getting n base.  15-20 HR power.  Speedy enough to stretch singles into doubles.  Great defense.  And probably not available for any package Boston will offer.  
 

But even without Shaw, the Cubs are a perfect match, needing botj a closer and uninjured starting pitching.  And they have several MLB-ready middle infield prospects and even a catcher that can hit, all of whom are blocked at the MLB level.  (The catcher, Moises Ballesteros, does occasionally play DH for them.)

If Ballesteros is not available, other infielders they could and likely would deal include Pedro Ramirez (most Red Sox name ever, at least until someone named Conigliaro Yastrzemski gets to AAA), James Triantos and Jonathon Long…

[notin]

10 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

I think you could see the orioles blow up their 2026 experiment. Alonso could be available? Jeffers & Lowe are the free agents moon is hot and heavy on.
I still think there is an outside chance Witt, Abrams, or Neto could be had for right prospects. Obviously Witt would be killer, inevitably would include both Mayer & Arias in the package. Abrams I think eventually moves off short, so he wouldn’t block Arias if you were able to keep him out of the deal. And Neto is the least valuable of the 3. But would add some pop at SS. Although if Neto is the guy, I kinda might rather just wait for Peña in FA after next season. 
 

The one thing we can’t do is convince ourselves 26 was a confluence of bad luck, and run it back with the lineup shown above!
 

Rumors do exist regarding CJ Abrams’ availability.  
 

Royals GM JJ Picollo is more like to trade you his children for a glass of expired milk than he is to deal Bobby Witt.   I know you don’t like BTV, but a fair package on that site from Boston is Rafaela, Tolle, Arias, Suarez, Early and Bennett.   And it might not be far off for one of the youngest and most exciting players in the game that is already under control long term…

[UtahSox]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

Shaw is the perfect hit. Capable of batting leadoff and getting n base.  15-20 HR power.  Speedy enough to stretch singles into doubles.  Great defense.  And probably not available for any package Boston will offer.  
 

But even without Shaw, the Cubs are a perfect match, needing botj a closer and uninjured starting pitching.  And they have several MLB-ready middle infield prospects and even a catcher that can hit, all of whom are blocked at the MLB level.  (The catcher, Moises Ballesteros, does occasionally play DH for them.)

If Ballesteros is not available, other infielders they could and likely would deal include Pedro Ramirez (most Red Sox name ever, at least until someone named Conigliaro Yastrzemski gets to AAA), James Triantos and Jonathon Long…

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

agreed.  If the Sox are buyers I'd like to see them go after bats with multiple years of control.  I'd happily get on the Matt Shaw train with you. 

Shaw and his 3.5 years of control was one of the trades I suggested.

He's no sure bet, though. He's already showing signs he could be the next Vaughn Grissom, but we need to take some risks to improve on the everyday player side of the roster.

Paredes only has 1.5 years, and KMarte is another year older. Plus, his AAV is recalculated after a trade, and is no longer a really good number for the bat we'd get.

Most likely, we sell for prospects and then hope to trade prospects for ML talent, this winter, much like we did last winter.

Those trades for Contreras, Gray and Durbin, as a whole, are looking good, despite the loss of Harrison and others.

[UtahSox]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

Rumors do exist regarding CJ Abrams’ availability.  
 

Royals GM JJ Picollo is more like to trade you his children for a glass of expired milk than he is to deal Bobby Witt.   I know you don’t like BTV, but a fair package on that site from Boston is Rafaela, Tolle, Arias, Suarez, Early and Bennett.   And it might not be far off for one of the youngest and most exciting players in the game that is already under control long term…

The part not taken into account is they are a long way from competing, and the internal dialogue of “do we jumpstart the rebuild, as we can’t win with him? Perhaps a big haul sets us up for 3-4 year run in 4 years.” Not saying it’s happening, but it’s a thought in the back of many minds in KC. 

[UtahSox]

Abrams for Tolle and Mayer? I’d do that deal 

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

The part not taken into account is they are a long way from competing, and the internal dialogue of “do we jumpstart the rebuild, as we can’t win with him? Perhaps a big haul sets us up for 3-4 year run in 4 years.” Not saying it’s happening, but it’s a thought in the back of many minds in KC. 

You make good points, but the part about being "a long way from competing" is not something everyone agrees on. We made the playoffs, last year, added some plus players and are generally a young team.

Even if management agrees with your point, they have a rabid fanbase that is near fully against a total rebuild geared towards 4 years down the road. If we are looking at 4 years, then Crochet, Suarez and several other players have "wasted" years of control. We might as well trade them, too.

I look around at other teams and see several that have more and way more top quality players than we do, so I get the point about "not being close," but I also look at the weak AL and some of the teams looking better than us about to hit a wall with their budget and post prime movement of their starts.

A few select teams are poised to just keep spending to refill, but some will soon hit a wall. I don't see our outlook as looking worse than most teams, and maybe we look better than 20+ teams, in terms of budget and future talent- projected and in terms of under control years.

It's hard for me to think we need a total rebuild, but the idea does have some merit.

[moonslav59]

To get top talent, we will need to part with top pitching- likely the younger ones.

I'd do it for the right piece(s) as I have some faith in our rotation depth and pitching pipeline, but that faith is based on speculative value. Guys like Tolle, Early and Bennett are not know greats, but they do have some legit value and not all is speculative.

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

You make good points, but the part about being "a long way from competing" is not something everyone agrees on. We made the playoffs, last year, added some plus players and are generally a young team.

Even if management agrees with your point, they have a rabid fanbase that is near fully against a total rebuild geared towards 4 years down the road. If we are looking at 4 years, then Crochet, Suarez and several other players have "wasted" years of control. We might as well trade them, too.

I look around at other teams and see several that have more and way more top quality players than we do, so I get the point about "not being close," but I also look at the weak AL and some of the teams looking better than us about to hit a wall with their budget and post prime movement of their starts.

A few select teams are poised to just keep spending to refill, but some will soon hit a wall. I don't see our outlook as looking worse than most teams, and maybe we look better than 20+ teams, in terms of budget and future talent- projected and in terms of under control years.

It's hard for me to think we need a total rebuild, but the idea does have some merit.

This was in reference to the KC Royals more so than Red Sox.