A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

AAV not actual salary. Do AAV versus the top 7-8 thats all we really care about…. How did the Red Sox compare versus the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, Phillies, BlueJays, Braves and now Mets? Although we’ve had this conversation before we already know the answers. Yankees are spending a FULL 100m more than RS again this year. Thats a big gap. 
although I do agree RS spend enough to have a much better record than they have. Their aversion to long term deals since 2018 has set franchise back from being elite top3-4 to being middle of pack.

This data is NOT AAV. It is the actual payroll numbers.

[notin]

2 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

This feels like 2023 2024 all over. I think the fan base have rebuild fatigue which is why such a visceral reaction to 2026 offseason and 2026 regular season. We heard about all these names coming up, and how good they were gonna be. And a lot of them are just spare parts or anchor contracts now because we extended them when theyd played a decent spring training . Saying now youre doing everything for 2028 is kiss of death for Breslow. 

Agreed.

Why is it every time something doesn’t show immediate results, the first thing multiple fans want to do is “tear it all down!! Trade everyone and start over!!”?  Do people think this brings immediate success?

Actual rebuilds take multiple (re: several) seasons and rarely work.  How on Earth did this become the panacea for a team with pretty identifiable and limited flaws?

If things still look this bleak in July, deal Chapman (Hes not likely to exercise his half of the mutual option).  The only other real candidates should be IKF, Coulombe and maybe Gray.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

This feels like 2023 2024 all over. I think the fan base have rebuild fatigue which is why such a visceral reaction to 2026 offseason and 2026 regular season. We heard about all these names coming up, and how good they were gonna be. And a lot of them are just spare parts or anchor contracts now because we extended them when theyd played a decent spring training . Saying now youre doing everything for 2028 is kiss of death for Breslow. 

Someone asked me what I'd do.

1. I would not go all in on 2026 by trading away the farm in hopes of building a ring team in 2 months.

2. I could say 2027 in reasonable as a target to build up to, but that would involve getting JH to spend like the Dodgers. Who here thinks that has any chance?

3. I chose 2028, because we have a few key players still under control for that final year of their contracts plus some young players that will be peak prime in 2028.

What's your idea?

[a700hitter]

21 hours ago, iortiz said:

Geez watching the CWS game and Meidroth. Can't believe we failed in that trade as well. Seems like we traded the wrong prospects to Chicago and extended a guy who probably won't see a MLB AB again.

The Campbell contract was insanely stupid.

[a700hitter]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Pretty funny how it's become the IKF & Durbin show, of late.

IKF’ s current performance is an outlier in his career.   He is a nonconributor offensively.   Durban — the jury is still out on what he is.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, a700hitter said:

IKF’ s current performance is an outlier in his career.   He is a nonconributor offensively.   Durban — the jury is still out on what he is.

Agreed. IKF will regress to his norm.

We don't know what Durbin's norm is.

[JoeBrady]

7 hours ago, notin said:

As much as this team needs bullpen help, questions should be asked about Kahnle and his 11 BB in 14.1 IP in Worcester…

I'm not seeing anything in his stats.  Guerrero has been performing better.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I'm not seeing anything in his stats.  Guerrero has been performing better.

14 scoreless IP is a good stat.

19.1 IP and no HRs allowed.

[moonslav59]

As of now, the Jays have the last WC slot at 29-31. Counting the Jays, there are six teams between us and that WC slot.

0.5 TEX & Athletics

1.0 BAL

2.0 MIN

2.5 HOU

3.0 BOS

[moonslav59]

Last 2 weeks (not counting today)

1.254 IKF (1.059 lst 4 wks)

1.104 Contreras

1.092 Duran

.762 Wong

.748 Yoshida

.736 Durbin

.724 Rafaela

.721 Sogard

.703 Gasper

.532 Monasterio

.511 Abreu

.497 Mayer

.485 Narvaez

[moonslav59]

OPS Against Last 4 Weeks (30+ PAs unless specified)

.268 Chapman

.408 Coulombe (13 PAs)

.517 Tolle

.527 Whitlock

.596 Early

.613 Bello

.632 Gray

.679 Bennett (22)

.682 Suarez (.873 last 14 days, not counting today)

.736 Kelly (25)

.743 Watson (.593 last 14 days)

.754 Weissert

.764 Moran (.621 in last 14 days)

.783 Guerrero (21)

.829 Slaten (29)

.906 Samaniego

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

14 scoreless IP is a good stat.

19.1 IP and no HRs allowed.

14/8 K/W in his last 11 games in AAA.  Guerrero has a 9/1 K/W in the majors.

[JoeBrady]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed. IKF will regress to his norm.

Always good to hear people that believe in regressing to historical norms.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

OPS Against Last 4 Weeks (30+ PAs unless specified)

.268 Chapman

.408 Coulombe (13 PAs)

.517 Tolle

.527 Whitlock

.596 Early

.613 Bello

.632 Gray

.679 Bennett (22)

.682 Suarez (.873 last 14 days, not counting today)

.736 Kelly (25)

.743 Watson (.593 last 14 days)

.754 Weissert

.764 Moran (.621 in last 14 days)

.783 Guerrero (21)

.829 Slaten (29)

.906 Samaniego

i would have never guessed Slaten that high or Weissert that "low".

[UtahSox]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Someone asked me what I'd do.

1. I would not go all in on 2026 by trading away the farm in hopes of building a ring team in 2 months.

2. I could say 2027 in reasonable as a target to build up to, but that would involve getting JH to spend like the Dodgers. Who here thinks that has any chance?

3. I chose 2028, because we have a few key players still under control for that final year of their contracts plus some young players that will be peak prime in 2028.

What's your idea?

Sorry I didn’t see you asked for my opinion:

I would trade for 1 or 2 more guys with high AFV to help salvage fans in 2026 and go for it all in 2027…

I’d target Willy Adames and Maikel Garcia.

1- Adames (30) will be 35 in last year of contract, and could be risky I get it…..  but he is a fabulous baseball player, and many good players are very effective at 34-35 years old. He could play SS, 2B, 1B (eventually). I think this is the guy it wouldn’t cost a ton of talent to get him, other than JH opening his wallet. 

2- Maikel Garcia (25) I Think you could get him for Marcelo Mayer + Justin Gonzalez or Endy Azocar + Eyanson or Witherspoon. 

3- trade Durbin, Chapman, Duran, Carlos Narvaez, Sonny Gray for a couple of elite farm pieces like Ethan Salas, or a 3rd young foundational piece like a Daulton Rushing type.

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

14/8 K/W in his last 11 games in AAA.  Guerrero has a 9/1 K/W in the majors.

Yes, we've talked about the bad stats, but u mentioned no good stats.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Sorry I didn’t see you asked for my opinion:

I would trade for 1 or 2 more guys with high AFV to help salvage fans in 2026 and go for it all in 2027…

I’d target Willy Adames and Maikel Garcia.

1- Adames (30) will be 35 in last year of contract, and could be risky I get it…..  but he is a fabulous baseball player, and many good players are very effective at 34-35 years old. He could play SS, 2B, 1B (eventually). I think this is the guy it wouldn’t cost a ton of talent to get him, other than JH opening his wallet. 

2- Maikel Garcia (25) I Think you could get him for Marcelo Mayer + Justin Gonzalez or Endy Azocar + Eyanson or Witherspoon. 

3- trade Durbin, Chapman, Duran, Carlos Narvaez, Sonny Gray for a couple of elite farm pieces like Ethan Salas, or a 3rd young foundational piece like a Daulton Rushing type.

 

So, the all in plan.

[UtahSox]

52 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, the all in plan.

Yeah I think if you’re not all in NOW then think about trading Crochet, Suarez too. But I don’t believe in rebuilds anymore. I believe we are starting to improve offensively…. So you asked what I would do. This also includes trading away Durbin+ Narvaez+Chapman+ Gray and maybe Duran as well. So you’d replenish a couple of really good prospects to backfill whomever you lost in the Maikel Garcia trade. 

2027 roster

LF- R Anthony

3b- M Garcia 

1b- W Contreras

RF- W Abreu

SS- W Adames

CF- C Rafaela 

DH- M Yoshida or Duran (if not traded) 

C- Gaspar or trade candidate 

2b- R Gonzalez/ Monasterio/ or trade candidate.

 

SP1- Crochet

SP2- Suarez

SP3- Early

SP4- Tolle

SP5- Oviedo/ Bennett/ Witherspoon/ Crawford

 

 

[mvp 78]

On 5/29/2026 at 5:47 PM, notin said:

Wasn’t that meeting due to his reluctance to move to 1b and cover for an injured teammate?

Yes, but simple reluctance to switch positions wouldn't have caused JH to want him traded directly after the meeting. Something specific must have happened in the meeting.

[mvp 78]

On 5/30/2026 at 11:34 AM, notin said:

I have not heard that version.

It doesn’t really agree with his interview on air when asked about moving to first and he flat out said “no.”   No conditions.  Nothing.  Just a flat out refusal accompanied by him saying “do they expect me to learn every position?”

He really did sound like a petulant child still griping about not getting to play 3b anymore, which makes this new version of the story tougher to believe.

This new story feels like a fabrication to clean up Devers’ reputation by piling on to Breslow.  But honestly, even tjis story still makes Devers look like a selfish, petulant child.

Devers said that he didn't want to be thrown into the position right away and look stupid during the regular season. SF eased him into it. Now he's the fulltime 1b. 

[mvp 78]

On 5/30/2026 at 2:14 PM, notin said:

I miss Devers, but he should have handled things like an adult.  Cora hasn’t been anything special in years.  Breslow is just another part of a mess of the front office…

Cora and Breslow should have handled it like adults too TBH.

[mvp 78]

On 5/31/2026 at 12:55 AM, moonslav59 said:

Tommy Kahnle has an opt-out on Monday.

Demote Guerrero?

Cut ties with Watson?

What about giving Seigler a look-see?

Tyron Guerrero: 

6.75 ERA

3.15 xERA

2.70 FIP

1.06 xFIP

[mvp 78]

19 hours ago, notin said:

Not sure Guerrero can be demoted.  I think - and Ive been wrong on this subject multiple times before - Guerrero eould need to be DFAd, clear waivers and then be optioned…

0 MiLB options.

[JoeBrady]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

OPS Against Last 4 Weeks (30+ PAs unless specified)

It feels like we are hitting better, but these are the ERAs over the past 4 weeks from our SPs:

• Gray   2.00
• Tolle    2.35
• Suarez 3.80
• Early    1.78
• Bello    2.67
• Total    2.50

The 10-3 is a bit misleading since Bello's opener might take a couple of losses in games where he cannot get a win, but that's pretty darn good.  We need another RP.  Winning every game with a Slaten-Whitlock-Chapman close-out is less than sustainable, unless we get about 80 appearances from them.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

It feels like we are hitting better, but these are the ERAs over the past 4 weeks from our SPs:

• Gray   2.00
• Tolle    2.35
• Suarez 3.80
• Early    1.78
• Bello    2.67
• Total    2.50

The 10-3 is a bit misleading since Bello's opener might take a couple of losses in games where he cannot get a win, but that's pretty darn good.  We need another RP.  Winning every game with a Slaten-Whitlock-Chapman close-out is less than sustainable, unless we get about 80 appearances from them.

Yup, ignoring the bullpen was a mistake! A few of us smarter posters were talking about it in the offseason. 🤓

[JoeBrady]

34 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Devers said that he didn't want to be thrown into the position right away and look stupid during the regular season. SF eased him into it. Now he's the fulltime 1b. 

That's not completely unfair, but when we traded for Schwarber, he didn't have a single inning at 1st, and still gave it a shot.  He was awful, but one of my favorite moments of that season was when he fielded a routine grounder at 1st, ran to 1st for the 3rd out, and started jumping up and down in a mock celebration.  I think it made the team more relaxed and they appreciated the effort.

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, UtahSox said:

1- Adames (30) will be 35 in last year of contract, and could be risky I get it…..  I think this is the guy it wouldn’t cost a ton of talent to get him, other than JH opening his wallet. 

2- Maikel Garcia (25) I Think you could get him for Marcelo Mayer + Justin Gonzalez or Endy Azocar + Eyanson or Witherspoon. 

1-I'd target Adames, but wouldn't pay full freight.  My figuring is that SF paid $182M/7, or $26M per.  They backloaded the contract, and since he is starting to age, SF shouldn't get the benefit of the backload.  They kick in ~ $26M.  In return, they get a real, but not premium prospect.

2-I like Garcia a lot, but I'd be shocked if KC traded him, unless it was a robbery.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That's not completely unfair, but when we traded for Schwarber, he didn't have a single inning at 1st, and still gave it a shot.  He was awful, but one of my favorite moments of that season was when he fielded a routine grounder at 1st, ran to 1st for the 3rd out, and started jumping up and down in a mock celebration.  I think it made the team more relaxed and they appreciated the effort.

Devers and Schwarber do not have the same personalities. If Raffy tried to do that, the media would have ripped him. 

[JoeBrady]

47 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Tyron Guerrero: 

6.75 ERA

3.15 xERA

2.70 FIP

1.06 xFIP

Throw in the 9/1 K/W.  He's most a wildcard right now, but he looks a lot better than some of the other guys we re-cycle thru.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

1-I'd target Adames, but wouldn't pay full freight.  My figuring is that SF paid $182M/7, or $26M per.  They backloaded the contract, and since he is starting to age, SF shouldn't get the benefit of the backload.  They kick in ~ $26M.  In return, they get a real, but not premium prospect.

2-I like Garcia a lot, but I'd be shocked if KC traded him, unless it was a robbery.

It's backloaded, but it really doesn't affect the CBT too much. It just goes up 830k when recalculated for this season. IDK. I'm sure they'd kick in some $$$ because they are trying to get out from under it, but I don't think the Sox care about what SF paid in cash over the first year.