A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Was he Minor League player of the year last year after he got sent back, down, and didn’t come back up? Is he tearing up the league this year, and is he any closer to being back up in Boston now then he was after being sent down last year. Suspect to prospect to major Leaguer. Where is he on that scale. Coulda, shoulda waited on that contract IMO.

Is he closer now than he was last year? Yes. Is he closer now than he was at the end of '24? No. 

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Agree. Horrible ST, and they kept moving him around, which continued even more when he went back down to WOO. 

I used to have faith in the org cranking out offensive players. I don't anymore. 

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Is he closer now than he was last year? Yes. Is he closer now than he was at the end of '24? No. 

Good way to put it, and may take 2 OF injuries to get him up now.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Good way to put it, and may take 2 OF injuries to get him up now.

IDK, what he has going for him is his RHB. 

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

IDK, what he has going for him is his RHB. 

True, but I don’t think they’d bring him up to just platoon.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

True, but I don’t think they’d bring him up to just platoon.

Not now, maybe later in the season. I think KC is part of the reason they didn't re-sign Refsnyder.

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They were so locked on being proven that their system worked that they forced him onto the MLB roster after he had a horrible ST. He hit well for a few weeks and the fell off the map and wasn't even able to hit AAA pitching. Injury? Lack of confidence? They clearly rushed him last season. 

That's what most people agree on, and it seemed that way to me, too.

IMO, these type of early extensions should be very well thought out. Most teams that do this often sign just he cream of the crop, and I'd say that appeared to be Anthony and Campbell. (Mayer's injuries prevented him from being on the short list.) The Bello & Rahaela signings were not in that mold, but they also did not sign for big money, either (nor did KC.)

The Bello extension looks real bad, now, despite getting some good pitching from him for a couple years. Rafaela might exceed the value of his deal at this pace.

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I used to have faith in the org cranking out offensive players. I don't anymore. 

The Anthony-Mayer-Campbell trio might have been the highest ranked in the history of the Sox. The jury is still out, as these guys are young and making adjustments as we speak.

Now that our focus has turned to pitching, maybe guys like Arias, Gonzales and Godbout can surprise us. The way Arias is hitting, it might not be a shock, if he does well.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Not now, maybe later in the season. I think KC is part of the reason they didn't re-sign Refsnyder.

Romy, too.

The way Ref is doing, it didn't hurt.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

That's what most people agree on, and it seemed that way to me, too.

IMO, these type of early extensions should be very well thought out. Most teams that do this often sign just he cream of the crop, and I'd say that appeared to be Anthony and Campbell. (Mayer's injuries prevented him from being on the short list.) The Bello & Rahaela signings were not in that mold, but they also did not sign for big money, either (nor did KC.)

The Bello extension looks real bad, now, despite getting some good pitching from him for a couple years. Rafaela might exceed the value of his deal at this pace.

Rafaela's "value" will exceed what they pay him, but what they'd actually pay him in arbitration and FA would be the same or less IMO. For there to be cost savings with Rafaela, he'd have to be a 110 wRC+ guy or something going forward. Good glove guys just don't get paid.

Bello's contract is fine if you think he has TOTR upside. I think they thought that at one point. Right now, he has 3rd starter upside. With injuries these days, you don't extend 3rd starters. 

The Anthony deal seems fine. He's going to be given a few years to figure it out and he wasn't really given enough protection in the lineup. It was really disgraceful that they put him out there and made him be the man from day one. Unfair. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Anthony-Mayer-Campbell trio might have been the highest ranked in the history of the Sox. The jury is still out, as these guys are young and making adjustments as we speak.

Now that our focus has turned to pitching, maybe guys like Arias, Gonzales and Godbout can surprise us. The way Arias is hitting, it might not be a shock, if he does well.

IDK, Arias is in a real slump in May, 957 OPS. His stock has taken a big hit. No HR this whole month! 

I'm happy that Mayer has cut down his k rate. If he can keep that low and get through the season uninjured, it's a success. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Rafaela's "value" will exceed what they pay him, but what they'd actually pay him in arbitration and FA would be the same or less IMO. For there to be cost savings with Rafaela, he'd have to be a 110 wRC+ guy or something going forward. Good glove guys just don't get paid.

The arb part can be projected and comp'ed after his arb years would have run out, but he was still pre-arb when they extended him. How many years did he have before free agency?

He may beat out what his pay would have been, but probably not by a significant amount.

$50M/8 (Let's say he'd have 4 year after control runs out '29-'32. IMO, he'd get $50M/4 easily- maybe $80-100/4 from someone.)

 

• 24:$1M, 25:$1M, 26:$2M, 27:$3.5M, 28:$5.5M, 29:$7.5M, 30:$10.5M, 31:$13M, 32:$16M club option ($4M buyout)

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

IDK, Arias is in a real slump in May, 957 OPS. His stock has taken a big hit. No HR this whole month! 

I'm happy that Mayer has cut down his k rate. If he can keep that low and get through the season uninjured, it's a success. 

Yes, with Mayer, his health is the first hurdle to get over. If he can be a plus defender and OPS over .725 to .750, he'll be a huge improvement over a decade of our 2B history.

Campbell has a ways to go, but he's got time.

Anthony seems like the best bet of all, but he's got issues to work through, too, and his injuries are starting to pile up.

Bello looks like a lost cause, despite his last decent game.

Rafaela looks like a plus, but it's a long contract.

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The arb part can be projected and comp'ed after his arb years would have run out, but he was still pre-arb when they extended him. How many years did he have before free agency?

He may beat out what his pay would have been, but probably not by a significant amount.

$50M/8 (Let's say he'd have 4 year after control runs out '29-'32. IMO, he'd get $50M/4 easily- maybe $80-100/4 from someone.)

 

• 24:$1M, 25:$1M, 26:$2M, 27:$3.5M, 28:$5.5M, 29:$7.5M, 30:$10.5M, 31:$13M, 32:$16M club option ($4M buyout)

Nobody is paying Rafaela 4/100. Glove first OFers don't get that. 

[notin]

49 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I used to have faith in the org cranking out offensive players. I don't anymore. 

The faith most of us had in Campbell, Anthony, etc. wasn’t from the organization; these players were all highly ranked by neutral third party evaluators like Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB.com…

[notin]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Rafaela's "value" will exceed what they pay him, but what they'd actually pay him in arbitration and FA would be the same or less IMO. For there to be cost savings with Rafaela, he'd have to be a 110 wRC+ guy or something going forward. Good glove guys just don't get paid.

Bello's contract is fine if you think he has TOTR upside. I think they thought that at one point. Right now, he has 3rd starter upside. With injuries these days, you don't extend 3rd starters. 

The Anthony deal seems fine. He's going to be given a few years to figure it out and he wasn't really given enough protection in the lineup. It was really disgraceful that they put him out there and made him be the man from day one. Unfair. 

Was Bello ever really paid TOTR money?  It seems like he got free agent low end starter money.  
 

Not sure if the never-ranked Bello was ever viewed as TOTR material..

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

It's a stupid risk because at the end of the day they only save money if KC becomes a super star. They needed to be sure about that. Internally, they wanted to break down his swing within a few months. Why? 

Sham?

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

The faith most of us had in Campbell, Anthony, etc. wasn’t from the organization; these players were all highly ranked by neutral third party evaluators like Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB.com…

They aren't neutral. They are paid by the hype. They need the clicks. 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Was Bello ever really paid TOTR money?  It seems like he got free agent low end starter money.  
 

Not sure if the never-ranked Bello was ever viewed as TOTR material..

Why would you extend someone at FA money? That doesn't make sense. You extend someone with cost savings. If you are extending someone with FA dollars you are a dope. 

If you extend Bello for low end money and all you get is a low end starter that you are stuck with, it's a loss! You're better off not being locked in with that guy! 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Sham?

The only sham is all these people calling for boycotts and saying they aren't going to watch anymore or that they don't care, but they keep showing up everyday and posting about the team. 

SHAM!

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Somewhere on the top shelf of the safe in the front office is a secret formula that only these geniuses devised that calculates which approach saves the company the most money.

Locking up a group of young players longterm at team-friendly terms in case one of them becomes a superstar worthy of top of the market value is one trend.

As a fan, I prefer they pay controlled guys minimums and then market value when the times comes -- which Boston doesn't seem to mind, either, to appease the base... as long as there's not a No Trade clause so they can dump them sooner than later.

The reason I'm on board with the latter is that it would appear to provide more budget flexibility to fill roster needs with legitimate talent year to year. But don't trade Mookie Betts, you complete and utter baseball no-minds!

Correct.  The whole WAR/$ over the life of the contract overlooks the advantage of being able to combine producers on min wage contracts with elite producers paid market value.  I would say thats a pretty succesful formula: high paid players carrying their weight + youngsters contributing for very little salary.

If I was a GM and a team told me that I had 800m to spend over the next 4 years, I dont think it would be wise to make sure you spend it evenly.  I would probably take advantage of yr 1 and yr 2 job security/honeymoon and throttle back knowing that it would give me excess budget room in my put up or shut up years (years 3 and 4), so I would circle them.   And I would even be willing to go youth in yrs 1 and 2 , trade for some prospects.

But when yrs 3 and 4 emerge , I would stop chasing value and efficiency as much.  People tell me we shouldnt be cyclical because we should compete for a ship every year and there is no reason to build the team in phases (buld for future, then build for present when future arrives).  But we really havent been competive for a ship in 6 years , and it doesnt appear like the rebuild is over and we're on the verge of turning a corner.

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Nobody is paying Rafaela 4/100. Glove first OFers don't get that. 

The league OPS has been about .715 since the start of 2015. Rafaela is at .714.

Assuming he's still an average hitter, the day he would have been a FA, he'd likely get $80M/4.

He's got a 4.6 fWAR and 5.6 bWAR since 2025, and I thought you respected WAR.

You seem to bending over backwards to not have to admit you might have been wrong about his extension. It certainly looks like breaking even is a near lock.

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The league OPS has been about .715 since the start of 2015. Rafaela is at .714.

Assuming he's still an average hitter, the day he would have been a FA, he'd likely get $80M/4.

He's got a 4.6 fWAR and 5.6 bWAR since 2025, and I thought you respected WAR.

You seem to bending over backwards to not have to admit you might have been wrong about his extension. It certainly looks like breaking even is a near lock.

Rafaela's OPS was below 650 two weeks ago. We'll see if he can keep up is current pace. 

I'm not "bending over backwards" I'm just making an argument. Same thing everyone else on here does every single day. 🫠

[drewski6]

30 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The only sham is all these people calling for boycotts and saying they aren't going to watch anymore or that they don't care, but they keep showing up everyday and posting about the team. 

SHAM!

Thats odd. Why do you care that I show up to post here from time to time to talk to some people whose opinion I respect?

But no, Im not rooting for this team at present. And my personal freinds are texting me asking me to and all pissy that they lost the life of the part at their RS viewing parties.  WEll, some of them,  some of them are moving on also.

I dont root for teams that treat people like the RS do.  Youre gonna have to get over it.  Im not sure if Ill continue to come here.  It wasnt that long ago since I read Breslow yell shut up and dribble, and that stabbed me right in the heart.  

Im sorry Im not a bootlicker.

[drewski6]

I like Varitek, I like Cora, I like Bregman, I like Story, I like Whitlock, I like the guy who got fired for calling Breslow a stiff, I like Devers.

I dont like seeing an authoritarian egomaniac insult, ruin relationships, treat people like interchangeable workers, narcissistic dude put out a last place team.  

IVe got friends that talked up Cora for years and then almost immediately were like "heres an article about why it was good he got fired" Im not going to be one of those guys who immediately dogs players/coaches the second they are no longer here.  Theres so much of that.  And its just carrying water for whatever the suits do.  Our guys who are beloved Breslow has acquired are awesome, until the time when Breslow changes his mind, in which case they immediately revert to problems.  Just not me.

Some here will defend a player for years and then as soon as that player is gone , they are defending why we had to let that person go.  Its ur typical sycophant, look at me mr beslow, im one of the good ones, please pick me out of obscurity bootlicking.

Right now, I am disgusted with the way this organization treats people.

[drewski6]

If Breslow said to me what he said to Whitlock , I woulda laughed in his face and went right to the media.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

I like Varitek, I like Cora, I like Bregman, I like Story, I like Whitlock, I like the guy who got fired for calling Breslow a stiff, I like Devers.

I dont like seeing an authoritarian egomaniac insult, ruin relationships, treat people like interchangeable workers, narcissistic dude put out a last place team.  

IVe got friends that talked up Cora for years and then almost immediately were like "heres an article about why it was good he got fired" Im not going to be one of those guys who immediately dogs players/coaches the second they are no longer here.  Theres so much of that.  And its just carrying water for whatever the suits do.  Our guys who are beloved Breslow has acquired are awesome, until the time when Breslow changes his mind, in which case they immediately revert to problems.  Just not me.

Some here will defend a player for years and then as soon as that player is gone , they are defending why we had to let that person go.  Its ur typical sycophant, look at me mr beslow, im one of the good ones, please pick me out of obscurity bootlicking.

Right now, I am disgusted with the way this organization treats people.

You mean like saying Devers Forevers over,and over, and over, and then turn on him when he doesn’t do what they want? I agree 100% on that.

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Rafaela's OPS was below 650 two weeks ago. We'll see if he can keep up is current pace. 

I'm not "bending over backwards" I'm just making an argument. Same thing everyone else on here does every single day. 🫠

Of course Rafaela might hi .650 or worse the rest of the way, but i's been .714 over his last 194 games.

It's been .704 since this time 2024 (2 years and almost 1200 PAs)

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Of course Rafaela might hi .650 or worse the rest of the way, but i's been .714 over his last 194 games.

It's been .704 since this time 2024 (2 years and almost 1200 PAs)

His OPS 7/18 - 9/30/26 was 587. Nothing is a given in this league with his approach. He seems to have refined it a bit so far, but we'll see.