A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Bregman May have been little Anthony’s binky, so I agree with most, but not for signing Bregman for 5 more years. 

Yup, just like papa Henry taught you. Instead of looking at a player as an asset, you look at a player's contract as a liability. Good boy. 

[mvp 78]

40 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Well said. Even in the early 60’s when the team sucked they were still more fun to watch. 

1960-1966 hitting in the bottom half of the league almost every year, pitching ERA in the bottom 4 almost every year

Average wins per year: 71

No way were they more fun to watch over a 7 year stretch like that. 

[Old Red]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Bregman got pissed off that the Sox didn't believe he received an offer from the Cubs. That was when the turn happened. The NTC issue just pushed him over the edge. 

The first contract offer, not believing another offer, and the NTC. 1-2-3. 

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

1960-1966 hitting in the bottom half of the league almost every year, pitching ERA in the bottom 4 almost every year

Average wins per year: 71

No way were they more fun to watch over a 7 year stretch like that. 

Were you there? Watching Yaz, Watching a 19 year old Tony C, watching Dick Stuart hit 40 HR, and even watching Earl Wilson bat was more exciting than what’s going on at the moment.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Were you there? Watching Yaz, Watching a 19 year old Tony C, watching Dick Stuart hit 40 HR, and even watching Earl Wilson bat was more exciting than what’s going on at the moment.

Roman Anthony at age 21 was better than Yaz at 21. 

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I could care less about that if a player is a current fit on the front end. At least you know with a guy like Bregman, your investment is for more than just a bat and glove.

And by now, Red Sox fans should know better: will any savings lead them to offer or acquire a longterm contract for another free agent All-Star position player? They never replaced Mookie or Xander or Raffy with new star performers whose production approached theirs when in Boston (please don't bore me with that trio's stats since, because it has nothing to do with this statement). 

Instead, the Sox have the worst offense in the majors. Forget about if this is their worst team in half a century; how about that this is the worst Red Sox team to watch for pure entertainment value. Some posters use examples of past failures in Boston loaded with batting champs and home run hitters, but those clubs were at least fun to watch. Most were contenders, and if they weren't, they were interesting.

 

 

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Roman Anthony at age 21 was better than Yaz at 21. 

You’re talking up a 21 yr old little Anthony now? We’ll have to see on how that turns out. At any rate things looked a lot different at a very young age looking at things than they do now. Fenway looked big on black, and white tv until you see it in person, and couldn’t believe how small it was.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You’re talking up a 21 yr old little Anthony now? We’ll have to see on how that turns out. At any rate things looked a lot different at a very young age looking at things than they do now. Fenway looked big on black, and white tv until you see it in person, and couldn’t believe how small it was.

Fenway played a lot smaller back then too. Once they added the 600 club/406 club/EMC club/Dell Technologies Club, the wind patterns changed and depressed the power a little bit. 

[drewski6]

14 hours ago, notin said:

Lou?  Lou Gorman?  It’s been so long!

Lou Gorman and I are both from Providence

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Bregman got pissed off that the Sox didn't believe he received an offer from the Cubs. That was when the turn happened. The NTC issue just pushed him over the edge. 

Correct, but the bottom line is the first to final offers to Bregman were both massive overpays for a guy who had shown decline over several seasons. If it wasn't for two half-seasons for doing well (first half 2025 and second half 2024) his overall trend line would have been plain for all to see.

After a tremendous 2018-2019 stretch of 157 OPS+ batting and near GG defense, he drop off pretty steadily and dramatically, except for an uptick in '22-'23. (He has a 144 OPS over his first 4 seasons.)

114 OPS+ '20-'21

127 from '22-'23 (still closer to 114 than 157 or 111)

122 from '24-'25 at ages 30 & 31.

Most players drop off after 30-31, so a continuing downward trend should have been expected.

Granted, he helped in the clubhouse and played plus defense, but he wasn't worth even the "insulting first offer."

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Fenway played a lot smaller back then too. Once they added the 600 club/406 club/EMC club/Dell Technologies Club, the wind patterns changed and depressed the power a little bit. 

True.

Wasn't watching baseball as a kid and teen funner for all of us?

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Correct, but the bottom line is the first to final offers to Bregman were both massive overpays for a guy who had shown decline over several seasons. If it wasn't for two half-seasons for doing well (first half 2025 and second half 2024) his overall trend line would have been plain for all to see.

After a tremendous 2018-2019 stretch of 157 OPS+ batting and near GG defense, he drop off pretty steadily and dramatically, except for an uptick in '22-'23. (He has a 144 OPS over his first 4 seasons.)

114 OPS+ '20-'21

127 from '22-'23 (still closer to 114 than 157 or 111)

122 from '24-'25 at ages 30 & 31.

Most players drop off after 30-31, so a continuing downward trend should have been expected.

Granted, he helped in the clubhouse and played plus defense, but he wasn't worth even the "insulting first offer."

What decline? He had two career years then seemed to level off between 115-125 wRC+ or so. I think you can expect a year or two to be up or down from there, but he's been pretty consistent. That's like saying Mookie Betts declined after his age 25 season in 2018 because he had a 10.2 fWAR and went back down to 5.8 fWAR. 

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

True.

Wasn't watching baseball as a kid and teen funner for all of us?

I think baseball was probably at its peak at whenever anyone was either 9 or first got into it (if older). 

[notin]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

1960-1966 hitting in the bottom half of the league almost every year, pitching ERA in the bottom 4 almost every year

Average wins per year: 71

No way were they more fun to watch over a 7 year stretch like that. 

Well, you have to remember he’s talking about the ‘60s.  So yeah, they were probably lots of fun to watch since everyone was hopped up on goofballs.  I mean, what wasn’t fun to watch in the 60s?

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Well, you have to remember he’s talking about the ‘60s.  So yeah, they were probably lots of fun to watch since everyone was hopped up on goofballs.  I mean, what wasn’t fun to watch in the 60s?

My Mother the Car

[mvp 78]

 

[notin]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

 

Perhaps he is baiting all the pitchers in MLB?

You know, like he wanders the lonely halls of Fenway loudly proclaiming “Woe is me.  I can only hit pitches down the middle.  Throw a pitch up and in and I’m as powerless as the king at Medieval Times.”

Then one day, in a key at bat, some pitcher will throw him one up and in and WHAM! Duran gets hit by the pitch!

[notin]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

My Mother the Car

You just need to take more Orange Sunshine…

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

What decline? He had two career years then seemed to level off between 115-125 wRC+ or so. I think you can expect a year or two to be up or down from there, but he's been pretty consistent. That's like saying Mookie Betts declined after his age 25 season in 2018 because he had a 10.2 fWAR and went back down to 5.8 fWAR. 

I specifically gave the numbers. He clearly declined from 2018-2019>> and then again from 2022-2023>>

I'm not saying he's the only guy to ever decline after age 25, but he has declined and is now at the age where nearly everyone declines- some drastically. Not sure what Betts has to do with it. I wouldn't pay Betts this money either, at this point in his career.

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I think baseball was probably at its peak at whenever anyone was either 9 or first got into it (if older). 

Indeed, same with all sports we really enjoy watching.

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I specifically gave the numbers. He clearly declined from 2018-2019>> and then again from 2022-2023>>

I'm not saying he's the only guy to ever decline after age 25, but he has declined and is now at the age where nearly everyone declines- some drastically. Not sure what Betts has to do with it. I wouldn't pay Betts this money either, at this point in his career.

 

You clearly didn't read my post. 

18-19 was the highpoint of his career. He had career years at age 24 and 25. It's not a big surprise there. I don't think the years afterwards are indicative of a decline. 

20 120 wRC+

21 114 wRC+

22 137 wRC+ (another very good year)

23 125 wRC+

24 117 wRC+

25 125 wRC+ no decline!!! He was as good in 24-25 as he was in 20-21. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

 

More supporting evidence on why Duran should lead off.

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

You clearly didn't read my post. 

18-19 was the highpoint of his career. He had career years at age 24 and 25. It's not a big surprise there. I don't think the years afterwards are indicative of a decline. 

20 120 wRC+

21 114 wRC+

22 137 wRC+ (another very good year)

23 125 wRC+

24 117 wRC+

25 125 wRC+ no decline!!! He was as good in 24-25 as he was in 20-21. 

I most certainly read you post, and there was most certainly a big decline after 2019- expected or not.

There was a lesser decline after 2023, and again, not unexpected but for real.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I most certainly read you post, and there was most certainly a big decline after 2019- expected or not.

There was a lesser decline after 2023, and again, not unexpected but for real.

No, there clearly isn't a decline after '23. The performance matches the '20-'21 output. No decline! 

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No, there clearly isn't a decline after '23. The performance matches the '20-'21 output. No decline! 

By your chosen metric, maybe not. I use OPS and he declined, and as I clearly pointed out, his two, good half seasons saved his ass.

OPS+ 127 ('22-'23) to 122 ('23-'24) is a decline, right?

wRC+ 131 ('22-'23) to 121 ("24-'25) is not decline?

Okay, he happened to have a worse 2 years from '20-'21 (116) although 2020 was less than half a season and only 91 games in 2021. That's your proof he didn't decline? It was 132 games combined and he had an injury.

The guy had a couple great seasons and the two before those were better than any 2 afterwards. He declined.

I pointed out he had an uptick after '20-'21, but then declined by a lesser amount after that. Both OPS+ and wRC+ show that to be a fact.

Of course, you will never admit you were wrong, so let's just agree to disagree.

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Of course, you will never admit you were wrong, so let's just agree to disagree.

No.

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No.

Good, then you agree or disagree to disagree, which is two negatives.

Got it.

🤪

[RedneckRedSoxFan]

So, what is the rotation now?
- Bennett (for Crochet)
- Tolle (for Gray)
- Early
- Suarez
- Bello -> need a new starter here IMHO and I'm moving Bello to AAA

Then coming off IL-15 we have (in order, maybe?):
- Gray
- Crochet
- Crawford/Sandoval

In AAA on the 40 we still have:
- Uberstine
- Rivera
- Anderson
- Bello

Then, not on the 40 are:
- Kahnle
- Song
- Tayron Guerrero

(I may have missed some or gotten some of the above incorrect.)

I contend that Bello moves to AAA when Gray returns and Gray takes his rotation spot. I would think when Crochet returns (after Gray returns) Bennett goes back to AAA. And Tolle/Early stay in the rotation. At that point the rotation becomes:

- Crochet
- Tolle
- Early
- Suarez
- Gray

I like this rotation. It's when Crawford and Sandoval return that throws wrenches into this mix. I can see Tolle going to the pen. Maybe Early as well? Or Crawford and Sandoval go to the pen to ramp up.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, RedneckRedSoxFan said:

So, what is the rotation now?
- Bennett (for Crochet)
- Tolle (for Gray)
- Early
- Suarez
- Bello -> need a new starter here IMHO and I'm moving Bello to AAA

Then coming off IL-15 we have (in order, maybe?):
- Gray
- Crochet
- Crawford/Sandoval

In AAA on the 40 we still have:
- Uberstine
- Rivera
- Anderson
- Bello

Then, not on the 40 are:
- Kahnle
- Song
- Tayron Guerrero

(I may have missed some or gotten some of the above incorrect.)

I contend that Bello moves to AAA when Gray returns and Gray takes his rotation spot. I would think when Crochet returns (after Gray returns) Bennett goes back to AAA. And Tolle/Early stay in the rotation. At that point the rotation becomes:

- Crochet
- Tolle
- Early
- Suarez
- Gray

I like this rotation. It's when Crawford and Sandoval return that throws wrenches into this mix. I can see Tolle going to the pen. Maybe Early as well? Or Crawford and Sandoval go to the pen to ramp up.

Uberstine in on the IL, too.

Crawford & Sandoval may never come back.

I think it will be Gray coming off the IL first, but until then pen games or Rivera/Anderson.