A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[FredLynn]

26 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Yes.  Stockholders of a corporation typically share equally in the profits and losses.

Yup. I’ve consistently written here that it’s Henry’s right to prioritize profits over winning. Obviously that’s what he’s doing too. It’s why we will never win another ring as long as Henry owns the team.

[notin]

3 hours ago, FredLynn said:

And Henry pockets the difference?

He pockets a BTV valuation?

[Hugh2]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

All teams have some sort of methodology for assigning value to players. Some are obviously better than others (or luckier.)

I'm hopeful our evaluation system is good. I do think Gray is worth more than the $21M we are paying him. I like the Suarez deal better than the Breggie deal.

Positionally, we are still in a bind, but there is something to the notion that value is value, no matter where it is. If Suarez was replacing a guy with Suarez value as our 5th starter, then I'd be sayin Whoa!

I'm also think we now use our SP'er deoth to add a 3B/2B and fix that need anyway. That would make the Suarez over Breggie choice more sensible. (I think it mase sense, anyway.)

I think you hit the nail on the head here, and it’s why the Sox have a chance to have a really good offseason if the make a big move at 2B/3B.  But they’re going to have to be willing to pay the cost.  Which continually seems to be an interesting theme around here

[notin]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

Yup. Too much for Henry in terms of $$$$ and prospects. We aren’t getting Donovan. I’d put money on it.

Gee, how bold.

I’d bet money on any individual player as well.  It’s the most meaningless display of confidence…

[FredLynn]

Just now, notin said:

He pockets a BTV valuation?

He also pocketed most of Devers money. He pockets the difference between players traded and players acquired on a regular basis. Thats why we are 23rd in percentage of revenue spent on player salaries.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

I agreed with you that I did not want Bregman back for those years, and for that price, but that does not take away from the fact good, or bad that Brez could not land the player they wanted most, and who was their PLAN A.

I don't think that's quite right.  Any asset is only a plan at a given price; not at any price.  My plan is to retire with beachfront property in the Hamptons, but only if it costs less than $1M.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Cots has us at $260.6.  We have plenty enough to land Suarez.

I don't trust them, anymore.

I think cots has us about $23M below line 3.

Spotrac has us at $275M. That's $9M below line 3.

[FredLynn]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Gee, how bold.

I’d bet money on any individual player as well.  It’s the most meaningless display of confidence…

I’d also put money on us not acquiring the talented offensive player it would take to make us competitors for a ring-by any name

[notin]

2 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

He also pocketed most of Devers money. He pockets the difference between players traded and players acquired on a regular basis. Thats why we are 23rd in percentage of revenue spent on player salaries.

1) I doubt Henry pocketed any of it.  It’s technically not his money, but rather it belongs to FSG.  You do know how sports ownership works, right?  It’s not the same as that lemonade stand your kids out up in the front yard (which was f***ing adorable, by the way).

2) BTV valuations are NOT REAL MONEY.   Henry did not “pocket” a number associated with a scoring system on one website.  The’re less pocketable than Monopoly money, because at least that’s tangible…

[JoeBrady]

10 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Yup. I’ve consistently written here that it’s Henry’s right to prioritize profits over winning. Obviously that’s what he’s doing too. It’s why we will never win another ring as long as Henry owns the team.

You asked who gets the money we saved.  What was the point of the question other than the owner(s) get the profits.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

He also pocketed most of Devers money.

Not sure about this, but how do you figure that?

2025 money only, yes. He added Hicks, DMay, Matz & NLowe, which were drops in the bucket, but we aren't talking about $30M for Devers in 2025. It was a fraction (half?) or $27M. That's maybe $14M. Half of Hicks is $6M, so we're down to $8M for 2025 minus what was paid for DMay, Matz & others. Okay, he pocketed something.... maybe Joe's beach house and mine, too.

Our budget is $25M more this year than 2025, so I'm not seeing pocketing going on at a higher rate than with Devers.

[JoeBrady]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Which continually seems to be an interesting theme around here

It's not an interesting theme.  We've been spending, we hope to spend more, and I'd bet that we do spend more.  But the only person that posts 5x a day that we won't spend, won't accept the wager.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I’d also put money on us not acquiring the talented offensive player it would take to make us competitors for a ring-by any name

Well, you continually neglected to even mention Contreras and quickly moved beyond the Gray and Suarez additions, so my guess is maybe nobody short of KMarte would get your okay.

Is there anybody available or mentioned that you'd be okay with? Let's start there.

If the guy we get hits .820 or is it .780, would you change your mind?

[notin]

6 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I’d also put money on us not acquiring the talented offensive player it would take to make us competitors for a ring-by any name

They arguably don’t need one.

Sure improving the offense has benefits.  But it’s not the only way to win games.  The Sox were 7th in MLB in runs scored last year. Seventh.  When they’re seventh from the bottom in percentage of revenue used on salary, you think that is significant.  At least I hope you do, because you post it out here hourly.  So why is it when they’re seventh best in something, that’s insignificant?
 

In a recent chat, Mark Polishuk of MLBTR said “the Sox were a top ten offense last year.  They're not hurting for bats.”

[JoeBrady]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

Gee, how bold.

I’d bet money on any individual player as well.  It’s the most meaningless display of confidence…

It's always the same with people that say things that they don't believe in.

[JoeBrady]

1 minute ago, notin said:

In a recent chat, Mark Polishuk of MLBTR said “the Sox were a top ten offense last year.  They're not hurting for bats.”

Wait, I posted the same thing, and Polishuk gets credit and I don't?  What a rip-off.

[FredLynn]

9 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It's not an interesting theme.  We've been spending, we hope to spend more, and I'd bet that we do spend more.  But the only person that posts 5x a day that we won't spend, won't accept the wager.

You must be referring to yourself. I proposed a wager. You declined to accept it. 

[FredLynn]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Not sure about this, but how do you figure that?

2025 money only, yes. He added Hicks, DMay, Matz & NLowe, which were drops in the bucket, but we aren't talking about $30M for Devers in 2025. It was a fraction (half?) or $27M. That's maybe $14M. Half of Hicks is $6M, so we're down to $8M for 2025 minus what was paid for DMay, Matz & others. Okay, he pocketed something.... maybe Joe's beach house and mine, too.

Our budget is $25M more this year than 2025, so I'm not seeing pocketing going on at a higher rate than with Devers.

How much did he save by dumping Devers and where did it go?

[FredLynn]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

1) I doubt Henry pocketed any of it.  It’s technically not his money, but rather it belongs to FSG.  You do know how sports ownership works, right?  It’s not the same as that lemonade stand your kids out up in the front yard (which was f***ing adorable, by the way).

2) BTV valuations are NOT REAL MONEY.   Henry did not “pocket” a number associated with a scoring system on one website.  The’re less pocketable than Monopoly money, because at least that’s tangible…

Who is the majority owner of FSG?

[FredLynn]

15 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It's always the same with people that say things that they don't believe in.

I bet that we don’t get a IF with a career OPS of .800 or better to fill our glaring need. Up for the wager?

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

In a recent chat, Mark Polishuk of MLBTR said “the Sox were a top ten offense last year.  They're not hurting for bats.”

We lost some of our best bats from 2025, and 7th in runs has to be within the context of playing half our games in a hitter's park.

Top 6 OPS in 2025 (PAs)

.905 Devers (334)

.859 Anthony (303)

.838 Refsnyder (209)

.826 Romy (341)

.821 Bregman (495)

.790 N Lowe (119)

That's over 1150 PAs gone.

We added Contreras .791 in 563 PAs. He's one point better than Nate Lowe was.

Okay, let's count on 300 more PAs from Anthony doing as well as 2025, we're still at least 300 PAs short of reaching last year's 1150 PAs, and Contreras probably won't match Devers/Bregman/Refsnyder's numbers.

Yes, we can win in other ways, and our rotation looks way better. We shouldn't forget that we ended up trading for DMay to "fix" a rotation that got us to the playoffs. Now, how good does that look?

Do the add & subtract comp to 2025 on that one. KaPOW!

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Who is the majority owner of FSG?

So, it's structured so that he pockets it all?

[FredLynn]

23 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

You asked who gets the money we saved.  What was the point of the question other than the owner(s) get the profits.

The point is that the money should be reinvested in player salaries if the owners aren’t lying about being serious about winning. 

[JoeBrady]

14 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

You must be referring to yourself. I proposed a wager. You declined to accept it. 

The one about the .820 OPS.  That was basically a bet to get HOF Ramirez from Cleveland.  I had a good laugh over that one.

[FredLynn]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, it's structured so that he pockets it all?

I’ll help. It’s John Henry and yes, he is lining his personal pockets with the money he saved not only on Devers but the money he could have reinvested in player salaries to make the team more competitive. Profit over winning. That’s his right but he should be telling the truth. It’s not like he’s fooling anyone. Just be honest: “I’ve decided to reduce payroll to see if we can be competitive with a smaller percentage of revenue being reinvested in our players “. Easy.

[FredLynn]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

The one about the .820 OPS.  That was basically a bet to get HOF Ramirez from Cleveland.  I had a good laugh over that one.

.800 is fine. Up for it? If not don’t complain when I don’t accept your sucker bet proposal.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I bet that we don’t get a IF with a career OPS of .800 or better to fill our glaring need. Up for the wager?

Ill just go for OPS since 2021 (last 5 years)

2B:

.857 KMarte (not available)

.839 Altuve (Don't want him)

.792 B Lowe (not .800) .775 Chisholm & Polanco, .772 Donovan

3B

.868 Devers

.865 Ramirez (not available)

.842 Riley (owed a fortune and been declining)

.822 Machado (see Riley)

.819 Muncy (doubt he'll hit .800)

.812 Caminero (not available)

.799 Bregman (would not have met your criteria)

.778 Arenado (LOL)

.777 Paredes (My choice)

Who would satisfy you?

 

[JoeBrady]

10 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I bet that we don’t get a IF with a career OPS of .800 or better to fill our glaring need. Up for the wager?

Over than past three years, at a minimum of 1500 PAs, that means we can only obtain Marte, Ramirez or Riley.  Come up with a serious wager or stop wasting your time.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I’ll help. It’s John Henry and yes, he is lining his personal pockets with the money he saved not only on Devers but the money he could have reinvested in player salaries to make the team more competitive. Profit over winning. That’s his right but he should be telling the truth.

Okay, so he pocketed a portion of a portion of about $5M we saved in 2025 on the Devsr trade-minus additions like Hicks, DMay, Matz....

[JoeBrady]

8 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

The point is that the money should be reinvested in player salaries if the owners aren’t lying about being serious about winning. 

Then why ask where the profits go?