A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

16 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

1. You underestimate how much energy RA and even Abreu will regain DH'ing a day.  In some parks, its a tiring jog from the dugout to the corner OF spots. Even once. DOing that 10/night all week and you wont be fresh as a daisy. SOmeone like Roman who is trying to still develop his hitting , you are not helping him succeed by keeping him tired

Come on, man. I know you played the game -- unless a guy is nursing a nagging injury, no young athlete wants to just DH instead of playing a position.

Being on both offense and defense keeps the body loose for best use. Jogging on and off the field before an at bat, and doing occasional sprints in pursuit of a defensive play is way better than just sitting on the bench getting stiff for an hour between at bats (especially on frigid New England Spring nights).

Designated Hitter is perfect for an old guy like Orlando Cepeda with balky knees, but young guys with energy like Anthony and especially Duran would drive the dugout crazy as a regular DH. 

If the Sox retain four outfielders capable of starting in the pasture, a DH rotation is the only way to possibly make this work... at least to find out which guy simply can't DH.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

1. You underestimate how much energy RA and even Abreu will regain DH'ing a day.  In some parks, its a tiring jog from the dugout to the corner OF spots. Even once. DOing that 10/night all week and you wont be fresh as a daisy. SOmeone like Roman who is trying to still develop his hitting , you are not helping him succeed by keeping him tired

2. Your template for perfect health is useless. The injuries will come and theyll keep coming

3. Even if there wasnt an injury all year, no way all these players are getting this many at-bats.  

I realize injuries happen and roles change. We all know this, but we can go into a season and place people where they should be when all are healthy. 

Of course they all won't get 650 PAs.

Maybe Duran plays 155 games in the OF. I get that, But he could play play 130-150 at DH. I'd consider that FT.

I'm giving these players what I think will be their roles:

C Narvaez w Wong starting 30-40 games

1B Contreras FT

2B _____ or Mayer almost FT (Romy platoon?)

SS Story FT

3B _____ or Mayer almost FT (Romy platoon?)

LF Anthony FT w Duran some

CF Rafaela FT w Duran/Anthony some

RF Abreu w Anthony some

DH Duran w Masa/Romy some and maybe a few others getting "rest days" as the DH.

You don't have to agree, but this is a pretty normal way of viewing how a season is planned, knowing changes will be made.

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

If Masa is only DHing 100 AB's, DFA him today. 

If any OF'er is healthy and does not need rest and is on the bench so that Masa can DH, DFA Masa, now!

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If any OF'er is healthy and does not need rest and is on the bench so that Masa can DH, DFA Masa, now!

If Duran isn't traded, will we hear about a mysterious injury that Masa has at the start of the season? 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Duran isn't traded, will we hear about a mysterious injury that Masa has at the start of the season? 

I really don't think we DFA Masa. Do we need an injury to demote him to AAA?

Maybe someone would trade for him at a cost of $3-5M x 2 years, and we pay the rest. That might be the best solution. Just don't ask me who that team might be.

I feel the same about Hicks, but he has no options and the pen is always in flux. See how he looks in ST'ing and decide then. We have no current 40 man roster crunch.

[moonslav59]

In terms of projected fWAR, here is the scorecard:

Add:

3.9 S Gray

3.3 R Suarez

1.9 Contreras

1.2 Oviedo

(returning from injury: 1.5 Crawford + Sandoval)

+11.8 Total (+10.3 added to team)

_________________________

2025 fWAR lost (2026 projected)

3.5 Bregman (3.8)

2.0 Giolito (1.2)

1.0 Wilson (0.5)

1.0 Dobbins (0.6)

1.0 Refsnyder (0.5)

0.7 Newcomb

0.6 Bernardino (0.1)

0.4 Lowe

0.2 Wink

0.1 Burdi

-0.9 Toro+Sabol

-2.1 several pitchers including Buehler + Matz (+1.7 Matz projected)

+7.5 Total

 

 

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I really don't think we DFA Masa. Do we need an injury to demote him to AAA?

Maybe someone would trade for him at a cost of $3-5M x 2 years, and we pay the rest. That might be the best solution. Just don't ask me who that team might be.

I feel the same about Hicks, but he has no options and the pen is always in flux. See how he looks in ST'ing and decide then. We have no current 40 man roster crunch.

It was said that a lot of the Japanese contracts had language that they players were able to refuse being sent to AAA even though Masa has options. We don't know what his contract says for sure.

I'm more confident in Masa providing value than Hicks. He's lost a little velo the past few years and still has no idea where it's going. Breslow got rid of all the other high bb guys. Time to move on from Hicks. If they traded Kelly now, just to see what Hicks looked like in ST, it's not the worst idea in the world. 

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It was said that a lot of the Japanese contracts had language that they players were able to refuse being sent to AAA even though Masa has options. We don't know what his contract says for sure.

I'm more confident in Masa providing value than Hicks. He's lost a little velo the past few years and still has no idea where it's going. Breslow got rid of all the other high bb guys. Time to move on from Hicks. If they traded Kelly now, just to see what Hicks looked like in ST, it's not the worst idea in the world. 

I think Masa can hit .750 to .800 in 2026, so to me he has value. We may have several other players on the team that can hit that, too- or a platoon set-up that can project to the same range.

I have very little hope for Hicks, but with no roster crunch until opening day's 26 man roster, we might as well see if he regained something of what he had a few years back- if not, I'd be fine DFA'ing him.

If Masa cannot be sent to AAA, I don't want him being just a bench guy: #2/3 DH and #5/6 OF'er. We should just trade or DFA him, if it comes to that.

An OF'er trade clears room for him to win the DH job outright or as the strong side platoon with Romy.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If Masa is only DHing 100 AB's, DFA him today. 

Im honestly unclear on the consequences of waiving him.  Like if he rejects a minor league assignment, does he forfeit his money?

Can I park him in AAA?

At this point, hes a depth option, and Im not against keeping him as such (at the cost of a spot on the 40 man). Not so much a spot on the 26.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Come on, man. I know you played the game -- unless a guy is nursing a nagging injury, no young athlete wants to just DH instead of playing a position.

Being on both offense and defense keeps the body loose for best use. Jogging on and off the field before an at bat, and doing occasional sprints in pursuit of a defensive play is way better than just sitting on the bench getting stiff for an hour between at bats (especially on frigid New England Spring nights).

Designated Hitter is perfect for an old guy like Orlando Cepeda with balky knees, but young guys with energy like Anthony and especially Duran would drive the dugout crazy as a regular DH. 

If the Sox retain four outfielders capable of starting in the pasture, a DH rotation is the only way to possibly make this work... at least to find out which guy simply can't DH.

This is what Im saying.  Id rather ROman and Duran and probably an infielder or 2 split DH duties.  But again, injuries will shuffle it.

Nobody will be a full time DH, and if right now the plan is for Duran to be the full time DH (it isnt) but even if that were the plan, then it will only be the plan until injuries/slumps/breakouts get in the way.

My point is that we dont have a DH.  We have an outfield rotation , an infield rotation, and a DH rotation.

It all could change at any given time.  For exmaple, if Abreu gets hurt, what we do will depend on various factors.  Like is Campbell mashing in AAA? IF so, you might call him up and add him to your OF (and DH and possibly even infield rotation).  But if hes flubbing, you may put Masa at DH and now Duran/Anthony/Cedanne suddenly playing OF every day.

Theres no need to commit to a defensive alignment right now.  ANd I really dont even care what our defensive alignment will be when we open the season because it wont stay that way.  WHo plays where will be determined by COra on a nightly basis, and people will move around due to injuries/slumps/handedness

I dont consider anybody on this team, right now, a DH, except for Masa who I consider a backup DH and an emergency fielder, but Im leaning towards him not making the 26 man roster.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Masa can hit .750 to .800 in 2026, so to me he has value. We may have several other players on the team that can hit that, too- or a platoon set-up that can project to the same range.

I have very little hope for Hicks, but with no roster crunch until opening day's 26 man roster, we might as well see if he regained something of what he had a few years back- if not, I'd be fine DFA'ing him.

If Masa cannot be sent to AAA, I don't want him being just a bench guy: #2/3 DH and #5/6 OF'er. We should just trade or DFA him, if it comes to that.

An OF'er trade clears room for him to win the DH job outright or as the strong side platoon with Romy.

TalkSox posters don't really know what can be done with Masa. Maybe he can be sent to WOO with one of his options? It'd be silly to have him and Casas there taking up 40 man spots without a long term plan though. 

With suspected an OF trade would clear up roster issues for a few offseasons now. Haven't seen one materialize yet. 

 

[drewski6]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

TalkSox posters don't really know what can be done with Masa. Maybe he can be sent to WOO with one of his options? It'd be silly to have him and Casas there taking up 40 man spots without a long term plan though. 

With suspected an OF trade would clear up roster issues for a few offseasons now. Haven't seen one materialize yet. 

 

Im fine with both on the 40 man, not with both on the 26.

[drewski6]

And casas will prob start on the 60 day IL.

[drewski6]

Once we start moving guys to 60 day, we'll have 40 man spots.

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Once we start moving guys to 60 day, we'll have 40 man spots.

That's not until after the team has already reported to camp I believe. At that point, the roster should have already been manufactured.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

This is what Im saying.  Id rather ROman and Duran and probably an infielder or 2 split DH duties.  But again, injuries will shuffle it.

Nobody will be a full time DH, and if right now the plan is for Duran to be the full time DH (it isnt) but even if that were the plan, then it will only be the plan until injuries/slumps/breakouts get in the way.

My point is that we dont have a DH.  We have an outfield rotation , an infield rotation, and a DH rotation.

It all could change at any given time.  For exmaple, if Abreu gets hurt, what we do will depend on various factors.  Like is Campbell mashing in AAA? IF so, you might call him up and add him to your OF (and DH and possibly even infield rotation).  But if hes flubbing, you may put Masa at DH and now Duran/Anthony/Cedanne suddenly playing OF every day.

Theres no need to commit to a defensive alignment right now.  ANd I really dont even care what our defensive alignment will be when we open the season because it wont stay that way.  WHo plays where will be determined by COra on a nightly basis, and people will move around due to injuries/slumps/handedness

I dont consider anybody on this team, right now, a DH, except for Masa who I consider a backup DH and an emergency fielder, but Im leaning towards him not making the 26 man roster.

This talk of shuffling players through the DH role is okay with me, if it is used as a way to give players some rest without losing their bat in the line-up and maybe needing less full days off, but to me, many of our batters are not good enough to DH.

I don't want to lose the bats of Anthony, Story & Contreras, as well as vs RHPs: Duran, Abreu and maybe Mayer, at some point. Vs LHPs; Romy and maybe Narvaez, but I'm not DH'ing Narvaez. I'm not DH'ing Rafaela, ever. Maybe Mayer. Maybe Story, if he drops off.

Okay, when Contreras, Anthony and Story need some rest, they can DH. That might be 10 games a year. That leaves 132 for Duran, maybe a few less, if Abreu plays FT and needs some rest.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Anthony will prob DH 200 at-bats
Masa will prob DH 100 at-bats
Casas (if not traded) will prob DH some at-bats
Contreras will
Romy will
 

We don't really do that.  Last year was different with the Devers trade and Yoshi's injury and rust.  But in 2024, Duran, Abreu, Romy & Casas combined for 7 ABs.  The 4-OF issue aside, we mostly just do some R/L platooning, but not resting.

In 2023, Yoshida & Turner received 561 of the 630 ABs.

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

TalkSox posters don't really know what can be done with Masa. Maybe he can be sent to WOO with one of his options? It'd be silly to have him and Casas there taking up 40 man spots without a long term plan though. 

With suspected an OF trade would clear up roster issues for a few offseasons now. Haven't seen one materialize yet. 

I'm one who thinks Casas will prove he can hit better than Masa (and maybe Duran, too.) He has not had split issues, so far.

I'd look to trade Masa before ST'ing or opening day, but if there are no takers at $3-5M, then maybe wait to see how he does, and maybe he builds some trade value.

I'd be fine looking at out 2026 and beyond DH as being filled by ...

Duran & Co,

or

Casas/Campbell/Romy

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

This talk of shuffling players through the DH role is okay with me, if it is used as a way to give players some rest without losing their bat in the line-up and maybe needing less full days off, but to me, many of our batters are not good enough to DH.

I don't want to lose the bats of Anthony, Story & Contreras, as well as vs RHPs: Duran, Abreu and maybe Mayer, at some point. Vs LHPs; Romy and maybe Narvaez, but I'm not DH'ing Narvaez. I'm not DH'ing Rafaela, ever. Maybe Mayer. Maybe Story, if he drops off.

Okay, when Contreras, Anthony and Story need some rest, they can DH. That might be 10 games a year. That leaves 132 for Duran, maybe a few less, if Abreu plays FT and needs some rest.

Nobody is themselves for 162 games.  Id never DH Cedanne either.  Unless he is nursing something that I want to be cautious about and hes red hot at the plate.

 I agree, but throw in an asterisk being

*everything subject to change based on who is avaialable, who is hot, who is slumping, handedness of pitcher, if the moon is in low tide, whether outside, what mood Cora happens to be in when he set the lineup, whether you had fish, chicken, beef, or veggies the night before for dinner

Im getting silly but so many things can happen, and theres so many variables.

Dudes will move around more than the boomers want cuz its not the same game it use to be and they dont do well with change, except you - cuz i get the feeling you're old man in age but not old in outlook. 

Could be wrong, but I picture you in 60s/70s but sharp as youve ever been, and open to change, and compassionate, and a good person, and just not a bitter grump like a lot of senior men.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

We don't really do that.  Last year was different with the Devers trade and Yoshi's injury and rust.  But in 2024, Duran, Abreu, Romy & Casas combined for 7 ABs.  The 4-OF issue aside, we mostly just do some R/L platooning, but not resting.

In 2023, Yoshida & Turner received 561 of the 630 ABs.

Yeah, the idea that MLB is now rolling guys through the DH spot just isn't reality. Most teams aren't doing that. 

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

We don't really do that.  Last year was different with the Devers trade and Yoshi's injury and rust.  But in 2024, Duran, Abreu, Romy & Casas combined for 7 ABs.  The 4-OF issue aside, we mostly just do some R/L platooning, but not resting.

In 2023, Yoshida & Turner received 561 of the 630 ABs.

"the 4 OF thing aside" is a pretty big thing to park aside, and 2023 is too long ago for me to care

game changes yearly, keep up.

[mvp 78]

Just now, drewski6 said:

Nobody is themselves for 162 games.  Id never DH Cedanne either.  Unless he is nursing something that I want to be cautious about and hes red hot at the plate.

 I agree, but throw in an asterisk being

*everything subject to change based on who is avaialable, who is hot, who is slumping, handedness of pitcher, if the moon is in low tide, whether outside, what mood Cora happens to be in when he set the lineup, whether you had fish, chicken, beef, or veggies the night before for dinner

Im getting silly but so many things can happen, and theres so many variables.

Dudes will move around more than the boomers want cuz its not the same game it use to be and they dont do well with change, except you - cuz i get the feeling you're old man in age but not old in outlook. 

Could be wrong, but I picture you in 60s/70s but sharp as youve ever been, and open to change, and compassionate, and a good person, and just not a bitter grump like a lot of senior men.

Not everything you don't like is a boomer idea. Especially since you're like 40 anyway. 

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Yeah, the idea that MLB is now rolling guys through the DH spot just isn't reality. Most teams aren't doing that. 

yet

[mvp 78]

Just now, drewski6 said:

"the 4 OF thing aside" is a pretty big thing to park aside, and 2023 is too long ago for me to care

game changes yearly, keep up.

If it changes yearly, how do you know what teams will do this year? 

[drewski6]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Not everything you don't like is a boomer idea. Especially since you're like 40 anyway. 

Rigidity isnt for boomers? Its like their wet dream

[JoeBrady]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay, when Contreras, Anthony and Story need some rest, they can DH.

If they need a day off, they will likely just get a day off.  Any days off that Yoshi gets will be against a lefty.  Romy will pick up those ABs.

[drewski6]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

If it changes yearly, how do you know what teams will do this year? 

Touche

[drewski6]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

If they need a day off, they will likely just get a day off.  Any days off that Yoshi gets will be against a lefty.  Romy will pick up those ABs.

so except for occasionally yoshi/romy are your dh

So you playing cedanne at 2b or sending anthony down?

[drewski6]

Use to be in football, you had a left outside linebacker that was always your left outside linebacker , and all your positions were kind of filled by dudes that play those positions

Now you got guys moving around. All over the secondary, all over the front 7, all over the O line, even RBs going out for passes and WRs taking handoffs.

Basketball use to be all about positions, then it changed.  Now its only barely a thing. I make a big deal out of the nba draft and watch it every year.  Its loaded with 6'6 point guards and 6'9 centers with very little difference between em.  Use to be you had your pg,sg,sf,pf,c and they all covered the one on the other team. Now the nba is a switchaton and specialists (true pg or c) are ripe for exploiting by switching em onto mismatch

Rigidity gives away to flexibility.  WIth boomers screaming and retaliating and getting bitter the whole way.

But change always prevails. Adapt or die.

[drewski6]

Baseball is the dinosaur sport, but eventually change will get you too