A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Because Rafaela has more long-term value than Marte.  I wouldn't do that trade straight-up.

I'd do it, since we'd still have an OF or Abreu, Anthony and Duran R to L.

[Larry Cook]

24 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Because Rafaela has more long-term value than Marte.  I wouldn't do that trade straight-up.

So we benefit immediately and Arizona benefits 4 years from now??  How does bres-slow have any chance to sell that ????

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

So we benefit immediately and Arizona benefits 4 years from now??  How does bres-slow have any chance to sell that ????

Rafaela is nearing prime, and if improves on 2025, they will see results in 2026, too.

The pitcher(s) we add can help in 2026, too.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

So we benefit immediately and Arizona benefits 4 years from now??  How does bres-slow have any chance to sell that ????

Ceddanne had a higher bWAR than Marte.  Marte is owed $101M/6, while Ceddanne is owed ~$43M/6.  That's over twice as much, and likely for less WAR.  If we want more offense, just sign Okamoto.  The trade Duran for a #2 SP.

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Ceddanne had a higher bWAR than Marte.  Marte is owed $101M/6, while Ceddanne is owed ~$43M/6.  That's over twice as much, and likely for less WAR.  If we want more offense, just sign Okamoto.  The trade Duran for a #2 SP.

I'm liking Okamoto more and more.

The issue with not getting a 2nd bat makes trading Duran over Ceddanne very problematic for the offense. There would be enormous pressure on Anthony & Mayer (or Campbell) and or a great need for Casas, Masa or someone else to take a huge step up on offense.

We'd basically be asking Okamoto and those I just mentioned to replace...

.774 Duran 696 PAs

.821 Bregman 495

.905 Devers 334

.838 Refsnyder 209

.790 Lowe 119

That's over 1800 PAs lost- or 3 FT bats.

600 Okamoto

300 more by Anthony

100 more by Abreu + 200 by Masa

600 by _____?

 

 

[JoeBrady]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

That's over 1800 PAs lost- or 3 FT bats.

I left Ref off of my analysis because I don't know if he will re-sign.  But replacing Duran, Bregman, Devers, Lowe and Toro, with an identical amount of PAs by Anthony, Abreu, Mayer, Casas and Yoshida, changes the outcome of those 1,928 PA from a .793 OPS to a .771 OPS.  Given that the 1,928 PAs represent 31.1% of the team PAs, that lower our team OPS by .007.

If we got Marte for Duran, the increase of *team* OPS would be about ten points.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I left Ref off of my analysis because I don't know if he will re-sign.  But replacing Duran, Bregman, Devers, Lowe and Toro, with an identical amount of PAs by Anthony, Abreu, Mayer, Casas and Yoshida, changes the outcome of those 1,928 PA from a .793 OPS to a .771 OPS.  Given that the 1,928 PAs represent 31.1% of the team PAs, that lower our team OPS by .007.

If we got Marte for Duran, the increase of OPS would be about ten points.

We don't have Ref on the roster, and you are assuming a lot, even if all healthy.

I see a much bigger loss- muchisimo!

[drewski6]

23 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd be fine with ...

Tolle & Rafaela for K Marte

Sign Okamoto (3B if trade Mayer or 1B if no trade)

(Optional: Trade Mayer for a solid #2 SP, but this puts pressure on 1B being figured out.)

My only issue is your belief that Early is better than Tolle, but I hate parting with either. But gotta give to get.

My offer is Rafaela + Bello.

Tolle's upside is Crochet.

[drewski6]

13 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Ceddanne had a higher bWAR than Marte.  Marte is owed $101M/6, while Ceddanne is owed ~$43M/6.  That's over twice as much, and likely for less WAR.  If we want more offense, just sign Okamoto.  The trade Duran for a #2 SP.

No.

Marte is a proven, extremely good hitter. We have 0 of those. Okamoto is not that. The closest thing we have is Duran.

Losing Duran and bringing in Okamoto is a minus to an already weak offense.

[Larry Cook]

14 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Ceddanne had a higher bWAR than Marte.  Marte is owed $101M/6, while Ceddanne is owed ~$43M/6.  That's over twice as much, and likely for less WAR.  

Then why do we even need Marte! Let Marte stay in Arizona and let Arizona choke on a declining asset!!!

[drewski6]

12 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I left Ref off of my analysis because I don't know if he will re-sign.  But replacing Duran, Bregman, Devers, Lowe and Toro, with an identical amount of PAs by Anthony, Abreu, Mayer, Casas and Yoshida, changes the outcome of those 1,928 PA from a .793 OPS to a .771 OPS.  Given that the 1,928 PAs represent 31.1% of the team PAs, that lower our team OPS by .007.

If we got Marte for Duran, the increase of *team* OPS would be about ten points.

I think Anthony could sophmore slump, and we shouldnt ask this much of a 22 year old either (he doesnt even have his man strength yet). Abreu (good point), Mayer (also doesnt have man strength, cant count on health and hes never shown an ability to be a plus hitter in MLB, but hes lifting weights now, so Im open to it, but its a question mark), Casas isnt healthy (theyve been telling you that), Yoshida = okay, but hes mostly a singles guy without the wheels.

These BOYS  are not a replacement for Duran, Bregman, Devers (MEN). ANd also, its not like you get all of Abreu when comparing to last year's team. Its about how much additonal WAR are you going to get on top of the WAR you got from Abreu last year.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Then why do we even need Marte! Let Marte stay in Arizona and let Arizona choke on a declining asset!!!

Because Marte is better than every single hitter on the red sox currently by a significant margin.

Next question

[drewski6]

Our offense needs help, and its not going to come from Mayer who is not strong at all (Breslow challenged him on that) or Anthony (who does not have all of his man-strength yet)  or Casas (he's not healthy, nor is he particularly good when he is healthy)

Some of the help may come from those guys, but if we are counting on this group, then its just more complacency and more third or fourth place.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

My only issue is your belief that Early is better than Tolle, but I hate parting with either. But gotta give to get.

My offer is Rafaela + Bello.

Tolle's upside is Crochet.

It's pretty close, and I realize my opinion is based on a way too small sample size from 2025.

To me, Early looked to have supreme confidence and a few different ways to get batters to swing and miss. Tolle looked more like a thrower than a pitcher. It's early (pun intended.) I do think Tolle has a higher upside.

I want to keep both. In today's pitcher market, when you see a guy like Brad Keller get what he signed for, I think pitchers like Crawford, Harrison, Dobbins and maybe even Sandoval have some real high trade value. Teams that need pitching but can't even afford Brad Keller will be begging for one of those 4. We can even trade 2 of them!

The second good thing going is that we have other desirable pitching prospects beyond Tolle & Early:

Witherspoon, Phillips and Eyanson

Bennett, Valera, Fajardo & Holobetz

Sandlin, Drohan, Uberstine & mullins

Delzine, Monegro, Aita & others need more time to build value.

We can build some formidable packages with an OF'er and a couple pitchers, and not lose Tolle or Early.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Because Marte is better than every single hitter on the red sox currently by a significant margin.
 

This is indisputable.

Maybe Anthony passes him sooner than later. Maybe in a couple years he's #3 among the players currently in the Sox system.

He's considerably better than Bregman and Bichette due to his power.

He's younger than Suarez.

He's more proven than Okamoto and Murkami.

He's much better than Contreras, Donovan, B Lowe, Y Diaz and Vientos.

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's pretty close, and I realize my opinion is based on a way too small sample size from 2025.

To me, Early looked to have supreme confidence and a few different ways to get batters to swing and miss. Tolle looked more like a thrower than a pitcher. It's early (pun intended.) I do think Tolle has a higher upside.

I want to keep both. In today's pitcher market, when you see a guy like Brad Keller get what he signed for, I think pitchers like Crawford, Harrison, Dobbins and maybe even Sandoval have some real high trade value. Teams that need pitching but can't even afford Brad Keller will be begging for one of those 4. We can even trade 2 of them!

The second good thing going is that we have other desirable pitching prospects beyond Tolle & Early:

Witherspoon, Phillips and Eyanson

Bennett, Valera, Fajardo & Holobetz

Sandlin, Drohan, Uberstine & mullins

Delzine, Monegro, Aita & others need more time to build value.

We can build some formidable packages with an OF'er and a couple pitchers, and not lose Tolle or Early.

I would do all 4 of those pitchers for marte in a heartbeat lol. Crawford, Harrison, Dobbins, Sandoval.

And wed still have Crochet, Gray, Tolle, Oviedo, Early, Bello, Drohan, Uberstine

Could use one more 3/4 starter, so maybe try to hold Crawford back but if you need to include him you do and maybe sign a #5 starter.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

...  or Casas (he's not healthy, nor is he particularly good when he is healthy)
 

126 OPS+ 2022-2024 (840 PAs is much larger than dalbec fleeting run of success.)

33 HRs per 650 PAs

Marte

129 OPS+ 2022-2024 (141 OPS+ 2023-2025 w 29 HRs per 650)

27 Hrs per 650

Duran

123 OPS+ 2023-2025 (different sample era)

16 HRs per 650

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Anthony (who does not have all of his man-strength yet) 

Average Exit Velo 2025 (150+)

1. Oneil Cruz

2. Aaron Judge

3. Shohei Ohtani

4. Roman Anthony

5. Giancarlo Stanton

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I would do all 4 of those pitchers for marte in a heartbeat lol. Crawford, Harrison, Dobbins, Sandoval.

And wed still have Crochet, Gray, Tolle, Oviedo, Early, Bello, Drohan, Uberstine

Could use one more 3/4 starter, so maybe try to hold Crawford back but if you need to include him you do and maybe sign a #5 starter.

A third team would have to be involved to trade 4 SP'ers, but I get your point.

I think an OF'er has to be part of the trade, and Rafaela is the best one to not hurt the offense. Campbell may need to rebuild value, and as a RHB might be worth waiting it out.

Rafaela and 2 of those 4 pitchers might be enough for AZ to agree to.

So....

Rafaela, Crawford & Harrison for K Marte

Dobbins & Mullins for Yandy Diaz (RHB 1Bman) or the same offer plus Hicks (maybe sub Sandlin for Mullins) for Wi Contreras.

Not as much as I want, but not bad.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Average Exit Velo 2025 (150+)

1. Oneil Cruz

2. Aaron Judge

3. Shohei Ohtani

4. Roman Anthony

5. Giancarlo Stanton

Punch and Judy!

[Randy Red Sox]

On 12/14/2025 at 12:31 PM, notin said:

I’m not thrilled with it, but I’m not as unrealistic as you are. 
 

But it’s December.  Not even late December.  Plenty of time left and just because two names you liked are off the board doesn’t mean it is over already.  Especially since the Sox might have felt differently about them.  

It seems obvious to myself that the Sox are simply to see who is the option available shortly before ST and then sign him to a 1 yr deal.

[Randy Red Sox]

12 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I would do all 4 of those pitchers for marte in a heartbeat lol. Crawford, Harrison, Dobbins, Sandoval.

And wed still have Crochet, Gray, Tolle, Oviedo, Early, Bello, Drohan, Uberstine

Could use one more 3/4 starter, so maybe try to hold Crawford back but if you need to include him you do and maybe sign a #5 starter.

And Arizona would laugh in your face at that trade.

[Larry Cook]

31 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Because Marte is better than every single hitter on the red sox currently by a significant margin.

Next question

Then why are you talking down about trading rafeala for Marte?? 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

It seems obvious to myself that the Sox are simply to see who is the option available shortly before ST and then sign him to a 1 yr deal.

Most of the good relievers are off the market, so I think they are mostly done shopping for pitching. 

Maybe they can find a good bargain at the beginning of Spring, but other teams do the same thing.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

And Arizona would laugh in your face at that trade.

What if they also threw in Uberstine? 🤗 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How can the impotent Retread Sox possibly trade one of the Big Three -- when they hit more home runs combined in their abbreviated rookie year than three guys pencilled in for full-time roles for the new year which begins in less than two weeks?

2025 HRs: Anthony 8 + Campbell 6 + Mayer 4 = 18 Longballs

vs..............             Romy 9 + Yoshida 4 + Casas 3 = 16 dingers.

(all those guys only hit one less homer than Raffy)

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

How can the impotent Retread Sox possibly trade one of the Big Three

They already did!

 

[Larry Cook]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Average Exit Velo 2025 (150+)

1. Oneil Cruz

2. Aaron Judge

3. Shohei Ohtani

4. Roman Anthony

5. Giancarlo Stanton

That is an incredibly  impressive stat. Thanks for posting 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What if they also threw in Uberstine? 🤗 

LOL. Are you mocking me?

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Then why do we even need Marte! Let Marte stay in Arizona and let Arizona choke on a declining asset!!!

I'm not sure why you are so low on K Marte. The guy is aging well, unlike Bregman and others.

Bregman is almost 32: OPS+ 

132 at age 28

122 at 29

116 at 30

128 at 31 (2/3 of a season) 121 OPS+ ages 29-31

____________________

KMarte just turned 32

105 at 28

127 at 29

154 at 30

145 at age 31 (141 from 29-31)

____________________

Bichette 114 OPS+ last 3 years at ages 25-27 (-27 from KM)

Alonso was 130 in his last 3 years (28-30) -11

Schwarber was 135 ages 30-32 (-6 from KM)

___________________

There is no better option available.