Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[mvp 78]

43 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Texas' starting rotation is as good in names as New York's, but neither may have the quality depth to overcome injuries as Boston's. 

If everyone stay healthy, then all three teams have to be favored to make the postseason. 

And I say that without even looking at who the Rangers have in their starting line-up, since pitching is the  predominant reason for optimistic Red Sox fans whose hopes Spring eternal.

deGrom at 38 is definitely going to pitch over 175 innings this year. 😎

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, UtahSox said:

PECOTA has twins at 78 wins 8 more than last year, Royals at 85.5 I just don’t see those either.  I Agree this team feels destined to be able to weather some injury storms, with not a lot of elite talent in lineup. But a lot of really good quality depth. I think Roman could be elite he’s also 21 years old, I expect setbacks……

There is length in the lineup, I’m getting excited to see how Cora moves the pieces around. The pitching is what has to be lights out… and I think we are set up to be solid. Bullpen needs some work, but I think we can address that later. Or go get Anthony Banda once he gets released. Going to be a fun/ possibly really fun season.

I can also see the Sox season going south, and I mean like Antarctica south.

However, I do not think we need a perfect confluence of everybody having career or near career years to finish first or second in the ALE.

There is good reason to think the Jays have a fine team, but they jumped up by 20 wins, last year. Their Pythagorean jump would have been by 14 games and finishing behind the Sox hypothetical win total.

I've already beat up the Yanks in previous posts, but in short- they are aging, injury-prone, with several key players starting the season on the IL and did nothing this winter to get better. In fact, their motto is "Let's run it back."

The O's made several bold moves, but started so far back, it's hard to know how high they will jump

At worst the Sox stayed even, but they are hard to project, too, since they had a major turnover of players, this winter- most at the middle to bottom of the 40. They also continued their shift from Offense to defense (and pitching.)

It should be a fun ALE to watch.

[drewski6]

12 hours ago, UtahSox said:

PECOTA 82.2 wins…… yikes could be 4th place in AL East. Not in the playoffs BTW behind Orioles,Astros, Tigers, Bluejays, and Rangers in Wildcard.

That doesnt feel right but Im not immune to home team homerism.  I think that the Yanks and Ms are the T1 of AL and tier 2 is Jays, us, Tigers, Orioles, T3 is Stros , Rangers, Cleveland ,,,,My opinion....Not sure why Pecota thinks of us as T3.  I think if we're heading that way we'll add like Michigan Adam was saying.  At least I hope so.  Plus the pitching is going to win a lot of games.  I think to go deep in playoffs we'll need either a breakout bat (or multiple) internally or to add bats externally as the season progresses....But even without further additions/unforseen breakouts, 82.2 feels quite low.  HATERS!

[mvp 78]

46 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

That doesnt feel right but Im not immune to home team homerism.  I think that the Yanks and Ms are the T1 of AL and tier 2 is Jays, us, Tigers, Orioles, T3 is Stros , Rangers, Cleveland ,,,,My opinion....Not sure why Pecota thinks of us as T3.  I think if we're heading that way we'll add like Michigan Adam was saying.  At least I hope so.  Plus the pitching is going to win a lot of games.  I think to go deep in playoffs we'll need either a breakout bat (or multiple) internally or to add bats externally as the season progresses....But even without further additions/unforseen breakouts, 82.2 feels quite low.  HATERS!

The Mariners won the same amount of games last year as the Sox. Why are they a tier above them? 

[drewski6]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Mariners won the same amount of games last year as the Sox. Why are they a tier above them? 

Got further in the playoffs last year, Im expecting positive regression to the mean for their pitching, Donovan/JROD/Cal/Naylor is a stronger front 4 than we have

Just my reasoning.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Got further in the playoffs last year, Im expecting positive regression to the mean for their pitching, Donovan/JROD/Cal/Naylor is a stronger front 4 than we have

Just my reasoning.

You might get positive regression from the pitchers, but you'll definitely see negative regression from Cal and Naylor. TBH Donovan and Durbin are the same player except that Durbin can play 150 games. 

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

deGrom at 38 is definitely going to pitch over 175 innings this year. 😎

without a doubt.   

he's pitched 1539 innings in his career. Nolan Ryan pitched more innings than that after reaching age 38. 

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

without a doubt.   

he's pitched 1539 innings in his career. Nolan Ryan pitched more innings than that after reaching age 38. 

He was 46 when he fought Robin Ventura. I don't know if deGrom will be able to lift his arm when he's 46. 

[Duran Is The Man]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He was 46 when he fought Robin Ventura. I don't know if deGrom will be able to lift his arm when he's 46. 

Nolan was a freak of nature. 

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

 

Blum is a 6'7" UDFA who added 5 MPH to his 4 seamer since May and throws a plus curveball, per his pitching coach.

[moonslav59]

Is Justin Wilson still a Sox option?

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Is Justin Wilson still a Sox option?

Wilson and Coulombe are both still available. 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Wilson and Coulombe are both still available. 

Haven't heard any talk of the Sox and Wilson.

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

 

Who has a harry bum?

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Who has a harry bum?

A peach?

[moonslav59]

Gallen signs 1 year deal with AZ,

$22M with $14M deferred.

 

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Gallen signs 1 year deal with AZ,

$22M with $14M deferred.

 

Maybe he should have accepted the Q.O. and saved himself a lot of drama!!!

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Maybe he should have accepted the Q.O. and saved himself a lot of drama!!!

He paid the differed price!

He must have thought he'd get more money and or more years.

Both he and Cease picked the wrong year to have off-seasons, but Cease scored a pretty good contract, anyway.

I'm glad we stayed away from both.

[JoeBrady]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Maybe he should have accepted the Q.O. and saved himself a lot of drama!!!

The QO is devastating to the lower ranked players.  When you sign Tucker, the QO is barely a rounding mistake.  When you sign someone like Bregman, who stayed only one year, the draft picks become painful.

[JoeBrady]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He paid the differed price!

He must have thought he'd get more money and or more years.

Both he and Cease picked the wrong year to have off-seasons, but Cease scored a pretty good contract, anyway.

I'm glad we stayed away from both.

Cease came to mind immediately.  Given the amount that SPs subsequently signed for, $30M * 7 seems like an awful lot.

[Deja Doh]

On 2/13/2026 at 8:27 AM, Duran Is The Man said:

without a doubt.   

he's pitched 1539 innings in his career. Nolan Ryan pitched more innings than that after reaching age 38. 

Nolan Ryan wasn't oft injured throughout his career and if he was, he'd pitch right through it.  Now there is simply too much guaranteed money..  Baseball should be more like football, getting rid of the guarantees.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

The QO is devastating to the lower ranked players.  When you sign Tucker, the QO is barely a rounding mistake.  When you sign someone like Bregman, who stayed only one year, the draft picks become painful.

Gallen has a shot at improving his value, and next winter, there will be no QO penalty.

[notin]

On 2/13/2026 at 10:52 AM, Duran Is The Man said:

Nolan was a freak of nature. 

He was early AI…

[notin]

5 hours ago, Deja Doh said:

Nolan Ryan wasn't oft injured throughout his career and if he was, he'd pitch right through it.  Now there is simply too much guaranteed money..  Baseball should be more like football, getting rid of the guarantees.

Right.  Let teams ruin more player’ careers by forcing them to play through injuries.  That sounds fun…

[harmony]

On 2/13/2026 at 8:01 AM, mvp 78 said:

The Mariners won the same amount of games last year as the Sox. Why are they a tier above them? 

To be precise: last year in the regular season the Seattle Mariners won 90 games and the Red Sox 89 games. In the postseason the Mariners added six wins and the Red Sox one win.

Some contend the Mariners underperformed in 2025.

Best wishes to each club this season.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, harmony said:

To be precise: last year in the regular season the Seattle Mariners won 90 games and the Red Sox 89 games. In the postseason the Mariners added six wins and the Red Sox one win.

Some contend the Mariners underperformed in 2025.

Best wishes to each club this season.

Some contend the M's always underperform.

2025 Run Differential

+110 Red Sox (5th hardest schedule)

+72 M's (20th hardest schedule)

Best of luck- you're gonna need it--again!!!

[harmony]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Some contend the M's always underperform.

Best of luck- you're gonna need it--again!!!

Seattle may be the unluckiest club over the past five seasons.

In a league that now sends six teams to the postseason, the Mariners have made only two postseason appearances in the last five years despite posting the league's third-best cumulative regular-season record over that period.

To borrow a cliche: Hope springs eternal ... for every club.

 

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, harmony said:

Seattle may be the unluckiest club over the past five seasons.

In a league that now sends six teams to the postseason, the Mariners have made only two postseason appearances in the last five years despite posting the league's third-best cumulative regular-season record over that period.

To borrow a cliche: Hope springs eternal ... for every club.

 

Being consistently "just short" is an argument for a winning in cycles philosophy.

Sorry, but the Sox had a way harder schedule than the Ms and way outscored our opponents compared to the M's. I would not say the M's were unlucky in 2025.

[harmony]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Being consistently "just short" is an argument for a winning in cycles philosophy.

Sorry, but the Sox had a way harder schedule than the Ms and way outscored our opponents compared to the M's. I would not say the M's were unlucky in 2025.

Fair enough, The Mariners underperformed in 2025.