Red Sox (Crochet) vs Rays (Rasmussen): 9/19/25, 7:35pm

[Brandon Glick]

The final nine games are a gauntlet: Rays, Jays, and Tigers.

If the Red Sox are going to make the playoffs, they're going to have to earn it.

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, Brandon Glick said:

The final nine games are a gauntlet: Rays, Jays, and Tigers.

If the Red Sox are going to make the playoffs, they're going to have to earn it.

Exactly.  Well said.  

[vegasbob]

This game tonight with Crochet up on the mound is the most important . Sox need to win at least 4 of the 9 to be there on the last day.  Crochet will get  2 shots at securing wins for them. 

Whether Giolito or Bello can do anything  to contribute is a crapshoot.    The BP has got to be weary of warming up in the third to come in  with bases juiced in the 4th.

Can any position player, including DH, actually work the round bat on the round ball in a productive manner ?  We will se, just don't look back over the past 15 or so games. 

Until you are playing an elimination game, it is never a true must win, but I say tonight is as close as you can get without  being on the  lose and go home spot.

[vegasbob]

This is probably not a popular theory but your opinions are welcome.

It is premised on the surmise that the Red Sox would be hard pressed to prevail over Seattle or Houston in a 3 game away series. to advance to the ALDS

Would the team , at all levels FO included, be better off  furthering the fade and just miss the WC 3 or sneak in with a headfirst slide , only to get flushed asap in the WC round ?

The first failure option could force an even harder look at players, Cora/coaches, and  roster margins  based on  the ongoing disappointments .     It could influence FA spending for yet another key hitter , probably 1B or DH.

Or is it better to squeak in, play 2, maybe 3 games, then go home ?    This would give the organization cover for moves/lack of moves in '25 and still declare it a huge success. I'm thinking Sam Kennedy here.   You know deep down the Sox do not have , right now, the pitching  nor lineup depth to compete for the championship level.    A small feel good moment, get  these guys the look and feel of playoff ball , vs the  disappointment/failure motivation of just missing out ?

Which choice would you put on the 2025 Red Sox ?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

34 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

This is probably not a popular theory but your opinions are welcome.

It is premised on the surmise that the Red Sox would be hard pressed to prevail over Seattle or Houston in a 3 game away series. to advance to the ALDS

Would the team , at all levels FO included, be better off  furthering the fade and just miss the WC 3 or sneak in with a headfirst slide , only to get flushed asap in the WC round ?

The first failure option could force an even harder look at players, Cora/coaches, and  roster margins  based on  the ongoing disappointments .     It could influence FA spending for yet another key hitter , probably 1B or DH.

Or is it better to squeak in, play 2, maybe 3 games, then go home ?    This would give the organization cover for moves/lack of moves in '25 and still declare it a huge success. I'm thinking Sam Kennedy here.   You know deep down the Sox do not have , right now, the pitching  nor lineup depth to compete for the championship level.    A small feel good moment, get  these guys the look and feel of playoff ball , vs the  disappointment/failure motivation of just missing out ?

Which choice would you put on the 2025 Red Sox ?

Gotta get in and see what happens this year. There's no guarantee anyone will even have a next year. 

Crochet could have an accident skiing or playing basketball or speed-boating at night -- all scenarios that actually took down (sometimes tragically) star MLB players in past offseasons.

[mvp 78]

42 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

This is probably not a popular theory but your opinions are welcome.

It is premised on the surmise that the Red Sox would be hard pressed to prevail over Seattle or Houston in a 3 game away series. to advance to the ALDS

Would the team , at all levels FO included, be better off  furthering the fade and just miss the WC 3 or sneak in with a headfirst slide , only to get flushed asap in the WC round ?

The first failure option could force an even harder look at players, Cora/coaches, and  roster margins  based on  the ongoing disappointments .     It could influence FA spending for yet another key hitter , probably 1B or DH.

Or is it better to squeak in, play 2, maybe 3 games, then go home ?    This would give the organization cover for moves/lack of moves in '25 and still declare it a huge success. I'm thinking Sam Kennedy here.   You know deep down the Sox do not have , right now, the pitching  nor lineup depth to compete for the championship level.    A small feel good moment, get  these guys the look and feel of playoff ball , vs the  disappointment/failure motivation of just missing out ?

Which choice would you put on the 2025 Red Sox ?

To me, it doesn’t matter if they miss the playoffs again or get swept in the WC. It’s the same thing.

[moonslav59]

Making the playoffs would be nice, but I kinda feel the same as MVP. We need to play well at least for one round to give me a sense we have really gotten significantly better.

Being better "on paper" is one thing. Improving from one year to the next and then the next is better than going backwards, but the wait has been long enough.

Time to show it.

[dgalehouse]

1 hour ago, vegasbob said:

This is probably not a popular theory but your opinions are welcome.

It is premised on the surmise that the Red Sox would be hard pressed to prevail over Seattle or Houston in a 3 game away series. to advance to the ALDS

Would the team , at all levels FO included, be better off  furthering the fade and just miss the WC 3 or sneak in with a headfirst slide , only to get flushed asap in the WC round ?

The first failure option could force an even harder look at players, Cora/coaches, and  roster margins  based on  the ongoing disappointments .     It could influence FA spending for yet another key hitter , probably 1B or DH.

Or is it better to squeak in, play 2, maybe 3 games, then go home ?    This would give the organization cover for moves/lack of moves in '25 and still declare it a huge success. I'm thinking Sam Kennedy here.   You know deep down the Sox do not have , right now, the pitching  nor lineup depth to compete for the championship level.    A small feel good moment, get  these guys the look and feel of playoff ball , vs the  disappointment/failure motivation of just missing out ?

Which choice would you put on the 2025 Red Sox ?

Any team can beat another team in a best two of three game series. And the Sox are pretty much on a par with Houston and Seattle. No intelligent bookie would give you long odds on a series like that. I don't know ( or much care )  about the pencil neck geeks on fangraphs. They know analytics, but they know little baseball. The playoffs are a crapshoot. Get in and hope to get hot. Go for it. 

[moonslav59]

1. Duran

2. Story

3. Bregman

4. Yoshida

5. Romy

6. Eaton

7. Lowe

8. Narvaez

9. Rafaela

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Any team can beat another team in a best two of three game series. And the Sox are pretty much on a par with Houston and Seattle. No intelligent bookie would give you long odds on a series like that. I don't know ( or much care )  about the pencil neck geeks on fangraphs. They know analytics, but they know little baseball. The playoffs are a crapshoot. Get in and hope to get hot. Go for it. 

The reason they give HOU and SEA greater odds to make and advance in the playoffs is that one has to win the ALW. It's a lock one makes it to the dance. There is no lock for the Sox to even make the dance.

If all three teams make it, let's re-look at the odds after 162 games.

That being said, fangraphs gives the Sox 3.5% chance to win the WS. HOU gets a 3.9% chance. When you figure their easier chances to make the playoffs, I think they think the Sox are better than HOU. They give Div leader DET a 6.4% chance, and they have a 97% shot to make the playoffs to BOS's 82%.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

1. Duran

2. Story

3. Bregman

4. Yoshida

5. Romy

6. Eaton

7. Lowe

8. Narvaez

9. Rafaela

Looks weak and tepid, maybe even doomed. But root hard for the underdogs to hang in there, and maybe give us at least another week or two to watch our favorite laundry. 

And it does matter if they make it, to give the future core in the dugout and the bullpen a taste of the postseason -- and a little experience to expand upon in the next half decade of Red Sox history.

[dgalehouse]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The reason they give HOU and SEA greater odds to make and advance in the playoffs is that one has to win the ALW. It's a lock one makes it to the dance. There is no lock for the Sox to even make the dance.

If all three teams make it, let's re-look at the odds after 162 games.

That being said, fangraphs gives the Sox 3.5% chance to win the WS. HOU gets a 3.9% chance. When you figure their easier chances to make the playoffs, I think they think the Sox are better than HOU. They give Div leader DET a 6.4% chance, and they have a 97% shot to make the playoffs to BOS's 82%.

I have no interest whatsoever in fangraphs. I think they are frauds just trying to make a buck  juggling numbers, without having any understanding of the game. I think at one point they had the Sox at 15 percent to even make the playoffs, despite the obvious talent level of the team. Now they have them at 95 percent to make the playoffs. When the Sox clinch a spot, they will raise it to 100 percent.  They are frauds . 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Looks weak and tepid, maybe even doomed. But root hard for the underdogs to hang in there, and maybe give us at least another week or two to watch our favorite laundry. 

And it does matter if they make it, to give the future core in the dugout and the bullpen a taste of the postseason -- and a little experience to expand upon in the next half decade of Red Sox history.

This team has looked like this several times, this year, and then BAM, they come out swinging and winning.

I'm not saying they have one more of those in them, but it has been their trend, all year long.

It seems that many get rapped up in trends and tend to think a team that is slumping is doomed to continue slumping. I ask why ignore the season long trend of this team's ups and downs?

We've has very few prolonged down stretches. This one if losing 5 of 7, although we are still 8 and 8 in our last 16.

We felt pretty down after losing 3 in a row in early Sept, then won 3 in a row.

We felt pretty down after losing 3 in a row and 7 of 10 in mid August, then won 7 of 8.

We felt pretty down after losing 5 of 7 near the end of July, then we won 9 of 10.

We felt pretty down after losing 6 in a row and 7 of 8, then won 11 of 12 in early July.

We felt pretty down after losing 9 of 12 at the end of May, then we won 8 of 9.

We lost 4 of 5 to start May, then won 4 of 5.

We started the season off winning opening day, then losing 4 straight, followed by winning 5 straight. later in April, we lost 6 of 8, then won 4 in a row and 6 of 7.

Almost every losing stretch was followed by a longer or more impressive winning stretch. Maybe we win 7 or 8 of 9 and win the division!!!

or not.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

I have no interest whatsoever in fangraphs. I think they are frauds just trying to make a buck  juggling numbers, without having any understanding of the game. I think at one point they had the Sox at 15 percent to even make the playoffs, despite the obvious talent level of the team. Now they have them at 95 percent to make the playoffs. When the Sox clinch a spot, they will raise it to 100 percent.  They are frauds . 

They have the Sox at 82.7% chance of making the playoffs- likely aided by us having the tie breaker over CLE, and the fact that DET and TOR are in bigger offensive slumps than we are.

[notin]

2 hours ago, vegasbob said:

This is probably not a popular theory but your opinions are welcome.

It is premised on the surmise that the Red Sox would be hard pressed to prevail over Seattle or Houston in a 3 game away series. to advance to the ALDS

Would the team , at all levels FO included, be better off  furthering the fade and just miss the WC 3 or sneak in with a headfirst slide , only to get flushed asap in the WC round ?

The first failure option could force an even harder look at players, Cora/coaches, and  roster margins  based on  the ongoing disappointments .     It could influence FA spending for yet another key hitter , probably 1B or DH.

Or is it better to squeak in, play 2, maybe 3 games, then go home ?    This would give the organization cover for moves/lack of moves in '25 and still declare it a huge success. I'm thinking Sam Kennedy here.   You know deep down the Sox do not have , right now, the pitching  nor lineup depth to compete for the championship level.    A small feel good moment, get  these guys the look and feel of playoff ball , vs the  disappointment/failure motivation of just missing out ?

Which choice would you put on the 2025 Red Sox ?

Missing the postseason altogether would be far, far worse.  
 

There is no reason to believe road games in Houston or Seattle are automatic losses, and even less reason to believe being eliminated by a two game losing for a lineup still potentially starting half the bench would create any situation beyond a positive one, regardless of the brief trip.  Don’t forget the Sox split the season series with Seattle and won it vs Houston.  (So go Seattle -take the West!) You can’t argue this team is not playoff worthy while at the same time, exalting other teams with basically the same records overall, but a losing one against Boston.

Also important - Boston owns the tiebreaker with Cleveland…

 

[notin]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They have the Sox at 82.7% chance of making the playoffs- likely aided by us having the tie breaker over CLE, and the fact that DET and TOR are in bigger offensive slumps than we are.

The Sox do have to hope Cleveland doesn’t overtake Detroit and leave us needing to beat the Tigers for a WC slot, as they currently have a 0-3 record against Detroit…

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

To me, it doesn’t matter if they miss the playoffs again or get swept in the WC. It’s the same thing.

I'm all for making the playoffs with the no doubt vain hope that the Sox pitching can make a difference.  I think both Early and Tolle are good additions.  I also think Sox hitting will continue to struggle without Anthony.  

 

[Maxbialystock]

57 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They have the Sox at 82.7% chance of making the playoffs- likely aided by us having the tie breaker over CLE, and the fact that DET and TOR are in bigger offensive slumps than we are.

Neat!!!  Thanks.  

[dgalehouse]

The three wild card gimmick is having the desired effect. Keeping more fans interested and keeping more and more cash flowing to the Lords of Baseball. 

[Maxbialystock]

Tough matchup tonight even with Crochet.  Rays' Rasmussen has a 2.74 ERA and a 10-5 W-L record.

Some lineup tweaks--

Duran LF OPS vs righties-- .876 and last 7 days-- .914

Story SS   .768 and .942

Bregman 3B   .801 and .574

Yoshida DH  .631 and ..536

Gonzalez  2b  .683 and .350

Eaton RF  .878 and 1.192

Lowe 1B  .853 and .730 

Narvaez  C  .737  and ..491

Rafaela CF  . 684 and .377

That's 3 lefty bats and 6 righties.  

[vegasbob]

5 of 9 in a week-long slump.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

3 hours ago, vegasbob said:

This is probably not a popular theory but your opinions are welcome.

It is premised on the surmise that the Red Sox would be hard pressed to prevail over Seattle or Houston in a 3 game away series. to advance to the ALDS

Would the team , at all levels FO included, be better off  furthering the fade and just miss the WC 3 or sneak in with a headfirst slide , only to get flushed asap in the WC round ?

The first failure option could force an even harder look at players, Cora/coaches, and  roster margins  based on  the ongoing disappointments .     It could influence FA spending for yet another key hitter , probably 1B or DH.

Or is it better to squeak in, play 2, maybe 3 games, then go home ?    This would give the organization cover for moves/lack of moves in '25 and still declare it a huge success. I'm thinking Sam Kennedy here.   You know deep down the Sox do not have , right now, the pitching  nor lineup depth to compete for the championship level.    A small feel good moment, get  these guys the look and feel of playoff ball , vs the  disappointment/failure motivation of just missing out ?

Which choice would you put on the 2025 Red Sox ?

The PO's of course. Anything can happen and it usually does.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

54 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

The three wild card gimmick is having the desired effect. Keeping more fans interested and keeping more and more cash flowing to the Lords of Baseball. 

 

It's always about money in all professional sports. The great motivator.

[Nick]

I wonder why the geniuses Cora and the pitching staff has not consider using an Opener for Bello.

I mean what do we have to lose? His worst inning is inning #1. What the hell difference does it make if the first reliever pitches the first inning or the fourth after Bello has thrown 92 pitches?

[notin]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

The three wild card gimmick is having the desired effect. Keeping more fans interested and keeping more and more cash flowing to the Lords of Baseball. 

Fan interest?! Those DEMONS!!

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

The Sox do have to hope Cleveland doesn’t overtake Detroit and leave us needing to beat the Tigers for a WC slot, as they currently have a 0-3 record against Detroit…

Yeh, well we had an 8-2 record against NYY before our last 3 games home series with them. How did that work out?

[Maxbialystock]

59 minutes ago, Nick said:

I wonder why the geniuses Cora and the pitching staff has not consider using an Opener for Bello.

I mean what do we have to lose? His worst inning is inning #1. What the hell difference does it make if the first reliever pitches the first inning or the fourth after Bello has thrown 92 pitches?

Might work because the 1st inning is against their top of the order while Bello has yet to have command of his pitches.  

[notin]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yeh, well we had an 8-2 record against NYY before our last 3 games home series with them. How did that work out?

Not relevant.

My point is if we tie with Cleveland for the last spot, the Sox are in and Cleveland is not.If we tie with Setroit for the last playoff spot, we’re out.

And Cleveland isnt trying to catch the Sox; they are aiming for Detroit.  (They’ll settle for passing Boston.)

[FredLynn]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

To me, it doesn’t matter if they miss the playoffs again or get swept in the WC. It’s the same thing.

They’re nice thing about not getting in would be that there’s a better chance of getting rid of Breslow and Cora and a bunch of incompetent position players 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

The Sox impotent offense has a good excuse tonight. They're facing a very good pitcher.