Yankees (Warren) vs Red Sox (Crochet): 9/14/25, 7:10pm

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Masa had a BA of .285 over the prior 2 seasons.

Yes, but Duran, Abreu and Anthony all looked like better options than Yoshida.

Remember, Devers was the DH and Rafaela was supposed to be the CF'ers.

That was one reason Anthony stayed at AAA. I saw no way to get Yoshida into the DH or OF slot without sitting a better hitter.

Once Devers was unloaded I'd still rather have Rafaela in CF and Duran/Anthony at DH than Yoshida at DH and Rafaela on the bench.

If Campbell had been a success, we might have seen an infielder squeeze, too and the need to DH Campbell, so Mayer could play FT.

This is not personal against Yoshida. He was a decent DH for a couple years, despite being overpaid. If we had no better options, I'd have been okay with him as our DH, especially vs RHPs. (Maybe Ref vs LHPs.)

I knew Yoshida could not easily be traded, and that was one reason I suggested more Abreu or Duran trades than Yoshida, last winter. Had we done that, I would not have been so set against having Masas on the 26. (My idea all along was Devers at 1B and Casas at DH, so I'd still be wanting Casas over Masa, but once Casas went down hurt, there would have been an easier path for me to support Masa at DH.

[FredLynn]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

When did I ever say there is no lower limit?

He doesn't "keep sucking worse and worse." He goes up and down and has his whole career. He is sucking now, and you act like he always has and always will.

Maybe he will.

He was at .577 in early May (30 gms/112 PAs)

He then hit .807 in his next 30 gms (110 PAs)

He hit .849 next 30 (93 PAs)

.568 his next 30 (93 PAs)

.529 last 24 gms (89 PAs)

I've never been one to judge a player on just his last 40-50 games or so, like the cherry-picked worst sample of .472 in 36 games. That is horrific. That cannot keep going on forever, but until we have a better option on the 26, I'd keep playing him in hopes that the previous 95 games sample size of 358 PAs at .798 might return. It's over half his season- that sample size, but to you, that is not a cannot be him. Only this recent sample size is him.

The thing that makes Rafaela’s incompetence with a bat insurmountable is that he has a fatal flaw. We all know what it is. Very few players can consistently hit pitches out of the zone. He isn’t one of them either. So pitchers simply don’t throw strikes to him and he swings anyway. Other players with much better control of the zone slump too, but they don’t have to overcome the fatal flaw that Rafaela does. I don’t think he will ever become an acceptable contributor with the bat. I hope he does-but me hoping he’ll contribute won’t make it so. I think eventually the team will be forced to trade him for an upgrade.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

The thing that makes Rafaela’s incompetence with a bat is that he has a fatal flaw. We all know what it is. Very few players can consistently hit pitches out of the zone. He isn’t one of them either. So pitchers simply don’t throw strikes to him and he swings anyway. Other players with much better control of the zone slump too, but they don’t have to overcome the fatal flaw that Rafaela does. I don’t think he will ever become an acceptable contributor with the bat. I hope he does-but me hoping he’ll contribute won’t make it so. I think eventually the team will be forced to trade him for an upgrade.

He's gotta be hitting some of those pitches, otherwise, he'd be leading the team in K%.

Of the top 9 Sox PA leaders, he places 8th in K% at 20.0, Only Bregman is better.

He's hitting bad pitches, but he's making outs. His Hard Hit % is the lowest of the 9 at 39.3%. The next guy is 44.5% (Narvaez.) His LD% is not the worst (21.1%.) Story, Narvaez and Abreu are lower.

When I see him have a stretch of over 300 PAs of near .800 batting, I keep my hopes alive.

When I see a streak like this recent one, I start losing hope and understand why others already has.

If Abreu was back, I'd be fine benching or "resting" Rafaela, but I'm not all that sure Eaton is a better option.

[moonslav59]

Here is an interesting data set:

XBH% (League avg is 7.7) Of course, speed helps increase XBHs.

11.0 Romy

10.4 Duran

10.4 Refsnyder

9.8 Bregman

9.6 Abreu & Mayer

9.4 Narvaez

8.9 Rafaela

8.9 Anthony

8.5 Story

______

7.0 Toro

6.3 Masa

6.1 KC

5.0 DHam

4.6 Wong

 

 

[FredLynn]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He's gotta be hitting some of those pitches, otherwise, he'd be leading the team in K%.

Of the top 9 Sox PA leaders, he places 8th in K% at 20.0, Only Bregman is better.

He's hitting bad pitches, but he's making outs. His Hard Hit % is the lowest of the 9 at 39.3%. The next guy is 44.5% (Narvaez.) His LD% is not the worst (21.1%.) Story, Narvaez and Abreu are lower.

When I see him have a stretch of over 300 PAs of near .800 batting, I keep my hopes alive.

When I see a streak like this recent one, I start losing hope and understand why others already has.

If Abreu was back, I'd be fine benching or "resting" Rafaela, but I'm not all that sure Eaton is a better option.

As you said he can hit bad pitches but not hard. Few players can do that. It does the team no good if he swings at pitches out of the zone and makes outs. His OPS reflects his wild approach at the plate. Bottom line is that he is hurting the team offensively and he has too much company. They have to try something else. Maybe play Eaton or give Password a shot. Rafaela is failing.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

As you said he can hit bad pitches but not hard. Few players can do that. It does the team no good if he swings at pitches out of the zone and makes outs. His OPS reflects his wild approach at the plate. Bottom line is that he is hurting the team offensively and he has too much company. They have to try something else. Maybe play Eaton or give Password a shot. Rafaela is failing.

And then what? Replace DHam with.....

.... Rafaela?

LOL.

[Bellhorn04]

17 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He's writing him off after the prior two years most likely. It's much larger than a 40 game sample if you don't like the guys swing. 

But he OPSd .800 against righties over the past two years, so that doesn't really make much sense.

 

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But he OPSd .800 against righties over the past two years, so that doesn't really make much sense.

 

We had 3 LHB OF'er and Rafaela penciled in at CF. They all hit RHPs better than Yoshida.

I'm fine if you disagree, but you seem to not understand my point.

As long as Yoshida is te better choice over others vs RHPs, I'm all for him DH'ing vs them.

We started the season with LHB Devers at DH. We had 4 healthy OF'ers, when Devers was traded. I did not want Yoshida DH'ing on the big club as his rehab assignment. THEN, he started hitting .550-.625.

It had nothing to do with a 40-50 PA sample size, which is not much bigger. I kept asking "how long a leash?"

Now, with Anthony and Abreu out, I'm not against Masa DH'ing vs RHPs.

[Bellhorn04]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It had nothing to do with a 40-50 PA sample size, which is not much bigger. I kept asking "how long a leash?"

moon, your statement that I quoted was about 40-50 GAMES.

And you started asking about Yoshida's leash after 10-20 games and suggesting alternatives like CampbeIl.

It might sound like I'm trying to gotcha you here, but that's not the intent.  I respect your opinions and I know a lot of thought goes into them, but the quick trigger finger on Yoshida has me genuinely confused . 

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

moon, your statement that I quoted was about 40-50 GAMES.

And you started asking about Yoshida's leash after 10-20 games and suggesting alternatives like CampbeIl.

It might sound like I'm trying to gotcha you here, but that's not the intent.  I respect your opinions and I know a lot of thought goes into them, but the quick trigger finger on Yoshida has me genuinely confused . 

Again, I did not want Yoshida at DH before PA 1. The next 40-50 then 150 just made it worse.

[drewski6]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He's gotta be hitting some of those pitches, otherwise, he'd be leading the team in K%.

Of the top 9 Sox PA leaders, he places 8th in K% at 20.0, Only Bregman is better.

He's hitting bad pitches, but he's making outs. His Hard Hit % is the lowest of the 9 at 39.3%. The next guy is 44.5% (Narvaez.) His LD% is not the worst (21.1%.) Story, Narvaez and Abreu are lower.

When I see him have a stretch of over 300 PAs of near .800 batting, I keep my hopes alive.

When I see a streak like this recent one, I start losing hope and understand why others already has.

If Abreu was back, I'd be fine benching or "resting" Rafaela, but I'm not all that sure Eaton is a better option.

Its not about losing faith or whether he is MLB worthy or not (he is) - its just a , for me, finding a way to not trade Duran (especially) or Abreu but we'll see after this season.  Things can change between now and then and while playoffs are small sample and shouldnt be used to dismiss a larger body of work - they do carry increased weight

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But he OPSd .800 against righties over the past two years, so that doesn't really make much sense.

I was counting on a Masa revenge season. 🫠

He's just been really bad this year. 

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Its not about losing faith or whether he is MLB worthy or not (he is) - its just a , for me, finding a way to not trade Duran (especially) or Abreu but we'll see after this season.  Things can change between now and then and while playoffs are small sample and shouldnt be used to dismiss a larger body of work - they do carry increased weight

I have suggested trading Rafaela several times- not Duran and Abreu. The return will not be as much, but we would have a better offense. Duran or Anthony (or Garcia) in CF is a drop in defense, but the offense bump should outweigh that. It would come down to the return we get for Rafaela vs Duran or Abreu on deciding what is best for the team. 

What else we do to beef up the offense is part of the equation, too- like keeping Bregman or not and adding another bat (1B, DH, 2B with Bregman or not.)

It could come down to this:

Rafaela plus 2 from Early, Tolle, Valera or Dobbins for Joe Ryan

vs

Duran or Abreu plus 1 from Early, Tolle, Valera or Dobbins or none but adding Clarke, Sandlin & Mullins

If you had to do one, which would it be?

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I was counting on a Masa revenge season. 🫠

He's just been really bad this year. 

I fully expect Masa to be back, next year. He's virtually untradeable.

If we trade an OF'er like I expect we will, I might be fine with Masa as our DH. I'm not a Masa hater.

I thought we had better options, this year. I did not like the way they handled Masa, this summer. He should have played in AAA longer.

This is not about his 40, 50 or 150 sample size. I actually think Masa is better than this. I think he can and will hit .750+, next year. If that is better than I expect from someone else, I'll support him staying in the line-up.

[drewski6]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I have suggested trading Rafaela several times- not Duran and Abreu. The return will not be as much, but we would have a better offense. Duran or Anthony (or Garcia) in CF is a drop in defense, but the offense bump should outweigh that. It would come down to the return we get for Rafaela vs Duran or Abreu on deciding what is best for the team. 

What else we do to beef up the offense is part of the equation, too- like keeping Bregman or not and adding another bat (1B, DH, 2B with Bregman or not.)

It could come down to this:

Rafaela plus 2 from Early, Tolle, Valera or Dobbins for Joe Ryan

vs

Duran or Abreu plus 1 from Early, Tolle, Valera or Dobbins or none but adding Clarke, Sandlin & Mullins

If you had to do one, which would it be?

Too many "or"s loses track that these are all individuals.  Duran, I believe is the best position player on the team, the second most important player on the team (behind Crochet), the energy leader. I do not trade him for ANYTHING.

Early and Tolle, to me, are way more highly valued than the rest.

I can be talked into trading Abreu, but I dont love it.  But if its Abreu and Valera vs Rafaela, Early, and Tolle - I would do Abreu and Valera.  But if its Abreu and Early or Rafaela, Valera and Dobbins, I do the latter.  But if trading Abreu - you are absolutely right - who else we bringing on offense matters a lot.   

[drewski6]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I fully expect Masa to be back, next year. He's virtually untradeable.

If we trade an OF'er like I expect we will, I might be fine with Masa as our DH. I'm not a Masa hater.

I thought we had better options, this year. I did not like the way they handled Masa, this summer. He should have played in AAA longer.

This is not about his 40, 50 or 150 sample size. I actually think Masa is better than this. I think he can and will hit .750+, next year. If that is better than I expect from someone else, I'll support him staying in the line-up.

5'8, going on 32.  Contact hitting is out and he doesnt have the slug.  This is why nobody else made a competitive bid.  I was excited when we got him, but he doesnt have the tools to have a revenge season.  A contact hitter + nothing else = verdugo and we dont need another.

As a base clogger, I care about his slg more than his OBP.  Its hard to justify having him as anything more than a #8 hitter.  If hes hitting top 6 in your order , its kind of a problem.  So therefore, its hard for me to see him as DH.  We would have to have Ketel Marte, Abreu, Duran, Anthony, Bregman, Alonso, Story all hitting in front of him. Which is possible.  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Its not about losing faith or whether he is MLB worthy or not (he is) - its just a , for me, finding a way to not trade Duran (especially) or Abreu but we'll see after this season. 

Both Duran and Abreu are good players, who would look even better on a powerhouse led by superstars. When opposing pitchers wear down trying not to let a Judge or Soto or Ohtani beat them, the second tier of regulars get to feast on mistake pitches.

But in isolation, the weaknesses of Duran and Abreu get exposed. When they're hot, they can carry a team for days... but not weeks like perennial MVP candidates.

On the Red Sox, we posters -- like fans of the majority of baseball teams -- blame most of our anguish on offensive failures. But for bad clubs, there's nothing worse than incompetent defense.

Ceddanne's value covering gap-to-gap in the middle of the pasture is more indispensable on a team like Boston, slowly turning the corner into contention. Consider bWAR for the Sox position players: Duran leads with 4.2, entirely because of his O. Next is Rafaela at 3.9 AHEAD of MVP of the regulars, Story at 3.8.

Raise your hand if you knew Ceddanne is worth more Wins than the team leader in HRs, RBIs, SBs, who also plays a sometimes spectacular shortstop. Put it this way: it's not because he hit some walk-offs before the All-Star break.

[mvp 78]

54 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Too many "or"s loses track that these are all individuals.  Duran, I believe is the best position player on the team, the second most important player on the team (behind Crochet), the energy leader. I do not trade him for ANYTHING.

Early and Tolle, to me, are way more highly valued than the rest.

I can be talked into trading Abreu, but I dont love it.  But if its Abreu and Valera vs Rafaela, Early, and Tolle - I would do Abreu and Valera.  But if its Abreu and Early or Rafaela, Valera and Dobbins, I do the latter.  But if trading Abreu - you are absolutely right - who else we bringing on offense matters a lot.   

Masa 8/5/24 - EOY '24: 832 OPS

Masa 4/20/23 - 7/25/25: 942 OPS

Previously, he had stretches of productivity each season. We just haven't seen it this year. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

5'8, going on 32.  Contact hitting is out and he doesnt have the slug.  This is why nobody else made a competitive bid.  I was excited when we got him, but he doesnt have the tools to have a revenge season.  A contact hitter + nothing else = verdugo and we dont need another.

As a base clogger, I care about his slg more than his OBP.  Its hard to justify having him as anything more than a #8 hitter.  If hes hitting top 6 in your order , its kind of a problem.  So therefore, its hard for me to see him as DH.  We would have to have Ketel Marte, Abreu, Duran, Anthony, Bregman, Alonso, Story all hitting in front of him. Which is possible.  

I hope we upgrade, but if we trade an OF'er and don't sign a 1Bman or DH, like it or not, Yoshida might be our best option vs RHPs at DH, especially if we trade a LHB OF'er.

Let's assume we trade Abreu:

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: Anthony

1B: Casas and or Lowe

DH: Yoshida v RHPs and Romy v LHPs (Ref, if he does not retire.) Who else is there? Maybe Lowe at 1B and Casas at DH? Maybe Jh Garcia? (He's a RHB who may not outhit Masa v RHPs.)

I'm not happy about it, but they are paying him $18M, and we can see how much they want to play him, even when he's not hitting .750+.

Maybe they keep all OF'ers and DH one over Masas.

[drewski6]

38 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I hope we upgrade, but if we trade an OF'er and don't sign a 1Bman or DH, like it or not, Yoshida might be our best option vs RHPs at DH, especially if we trade a LHB OF'er.

Let's assume we trade Abreu:

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: Anthony

1B: Casas and or Lowe

DH: Yoshida v RHPs and Romy v LHPs (Ref, if he does not retire.) Who else is there? Maybe Lowe at 1B and Casas at DH? Maybe Jh Garcia? (He's a RHB who may not outhit Masa v RHPs.)

I'm not happy about it, but they are paying him $18M, and we can see how much they want to play him, even when he's not hitting .750+.

Maybe they keep all OF'ers and DH one over Masas.

I agree there is a path to him being a DH on this team next year.  And as you imply a lot of that is outside his control (e.g. trading an OF'er without signing an OH, DH, 1b)

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

I agree there is a path to him being a DH on this team next year.  And as you imply a lot of that is outside his control (e.g. trading an OF'er without signing an OH, DH, 1b)

I'm not totally thrilled with Rafaela in CF for the next 6-7 years and moving Duran or rotating all the other OF'er through the DH slot, but it would be an upgrade on offense from the DH slot, without making any trades or costly signings.

We'd be paying Yoshida to be on the bench or AAA, but we are paying him, anyway- probably even if we trade him away.

Doing that plus bringing Bregman back plus a big bat (Alonso, Schwarber, Suarez or Marte) would be a huge upgrade on O.

If we got Marte for maybe Rafaela, Arias and Clarke, plus brought back Breggie and signed Suarez to DH, we could see this:

1. Anthony LF

2. Marte 2B

3. Bregman 3B

4. Suarez DH

5. Duran LF

6. Story 2B

7. Abreu RF

8. Casas/Romy 1B

9. Narvaez C

I'm not sure how we replace Gio, Buehler and Houck, though.

 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

On 9/15/2025 at 9:29 AM, drewski6 said:

Thats not mutually exclusive

One would think a real Sox fan like Fred claims to be would have knowledge of the 10th player award.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

On 9/14/2025 at 1:07 PM, Nick said:

 

 

On 9/15/2025 at 8:10 AM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

 

 

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 

 

On 9/15/2025 at 9:29 AM, drewski6 said:

 

 

[drewski6]

41 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not totally thrilled with Rafaela in CF for the next 6-7 years and moving Duran or rotating all the other OF'er through the DH slot, but it would be an upgrade on offense from the DH slot, without making any trades or costly signings.

We'd be paying Yoshida to be on the bench or AAA, but we are paying him, anyway- probably even if we trade him away.

Doing that plus bringing Bregman back plus a big bat (Alonso, Schwarber, Suarez or Marte) would be a huge upgrade on O.

If we got Marte for maybe Rafaela, Arias and Clarke, plus brought back Breggie and signed Suarez to DH, we could see this:

1. Anthony LF

2. Marte 2B

3. Bregman 3B

4. Suarez DH

5. Duran LF

6. Story 2B

7. Abreu RF

8. Casas/Romy 1B

9. Narvaez C

I'm not sure how we replace Gio, Buehler and Houck, though.

 

Marte is inexpensive and Suarez should be too.  Bregman replaces his current AAV.  Should be $$ for Gio.