Red Sox Day Off Musings

[drewski6]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I actually thought we went 11-12 deep in the rotation, last winter, and I was not counting Newcomb, who won a slot in ST'ing plus Tolle and Early.

Crochet

Houck (our 2024 ace)

Bello

Buehler

Giolito

Crawford (IP leader in '24)

Criswell (was good in '24- 2nd best SP ERA)

Fitts

Dobbins

Winckowski

Sandoval (Expected AUG)

Whitlock was expected to be FT pen, but he was a consideration for the rotation

Murphy

I was more worried about top pen arms and too much mediocre depth, there. I expected some of those on the list above to be used from the pen. Hardly any were, except Whitlock.

I do not want to get too caught up in the nuance of exactly how deep you think we should be on SP because Id rather stick to your general point, expect attrition, because I agree and its relevant to the point Im trying to make about offense (expense attrition).  Starting to think a rule of 2x applies.  General rule.  To win you need one TOTR starter, so have 2.  You need 2 other good starters so get 4.  You need 3 more capable (journeyman 5th starter types)/promising unproven youngsters (youngsters who you can hoard on the farm, but it helps your depth)/projects(guys trying to work back after a bad year or injury you think you can rectify).  Putting these final 3 in one category, you need 3 of them so get 6.  So all in all, you have 2 TOTR, 4  additional good starters, 6 additional options.  It sounds like a lot, but like you always say - expect attrition (maybe not those words)

But, my point here, is less also apply to offense, but remember - Im not saying positionally, Im thinking more lineupally.  You need 3 very good bats, so get 6. I care not where they play.  I mean for sure balance aquiring/playing these 6 quality bats with defense so you arent a train wreck in the field.  But my point here is that Im not saying that you need 2x good 1b, 2x good cf, 2x good 2b....But I think you need 6 very good bats, so you are reasonably assured to have a good top half of the order to compliment your pitching and d.

This sounds like I am expecting a lot, but I believe in windows.  So you spend a period preparing for this, and once your window opens you have trade chips and propsect options that serve you well here.  For example, you cant have all this on your 26, but if some are in the form of prospects, great.  Its how you have extra depth beyond your 26.

I think thats where we are, and I read an article this morning about how Chaim has had quite the glow up.  If Im a St Louis fan, Im looking at RA and Tolle and Early, and Bello, and others, including pieces that went for Crochet, and Im thinking "did we get a steal?"

As a RS fan, I know why Chaims time came and went, but if I was a ST Louis fan, Id look at the sox and be happy to have Chaim. I think, I cant know for sure. 

[drewski6]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 

 

Are there any teams in baseball that don't put at least 2 crappy hitters in the lineup most games?

Yes.

Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, Astros

looks like a who's who of ws faves

[mvp 78]

The 1927 Yankees:

Mark Koenig: 123 G, 83 OPS+, batted 2nd! 

Joe Dugan: 112 G, 78 OPS+, batted 7th

How'd that team win anything? 

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, notin said:

And even if Volpe - a 3 bWAR player the 2 previous seasons - is a crappy hitter, you named Austin Wells as one.  Wells has a career OPS+ of 99.  If he’s a crappy hitter, so is 50% of MLB…

How many times do I have to admit I was wrong labeling slumping players as crappy batters? I was wrong on that. (I do think Bogey has established he is no longer an elite batter, but he is not really crappy, yet.)

I made a point about some of the teams you listed as NOT having 2 crappy batters that I felt actually do. I was wrong on some, but you will not respond to the point for teams I was right about. I ask for a response, and you just repeat the mistakes I made and have already agreed I made.

Can you answer? Does HOU have 2-3 crappy batters in their line-up every day? (Maybe 2, now that Yordan is back,) Is Iggy, Clement and Volpe crappy hitters? I know some can field very well, as does Rafaela, who Fred calls worse than crappy as a batter, even when he was hovering around the league norm OPS of about .720.

Do some of the team you listed have 2 crappy hitters or not? Last chance to actually answer. I'll stop here.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I do not want to get too caught up in the nuance of exactly how deep you think we should be on SP because Id rather stick to your general point, expect attrition, because I agree and its relevant to the point Im trying to make about offense (expense attrition).  Starting to think a rule of 2x applies.  General rule.  To win you need one TOTR starter, so have 2.  You need 2 other good starters so get 4.  You need 3 more capable (journeyman 5th starter types)/promising unproven youngsters (youngsters who you can hoard on the farm, but it helps your depth)/projects(guys trying to work back after a bad year or injury you think you can rectify).  Putting these final 3 in one category, you need 3 of them so get 6.  So all in all, you have 2 TOTR, 4  additional good starters, 6 additional options.  It sounds like a lot, but like you always say - expect attrition (maybe not those words)

But, my point here, is less also apply to offense, but remember - Im not saying positionally, Im thinking more lineupally.  You need 3 very good bats, so get 6. I care not where they play.  I mean for sure balance aquiring/playing these 6 quality bats with defense so you arent a train wreck in the field.  But my point here is that Im not saying that you need 2x good 1b, 2x good cf, 2x good 2b....But I think you need 6 very good bats, so you are reasonably assured to have a good top half of the order to compliment your pitching and d.

This sounds like I am expecting a lot, but I believe in windows.  So you spend a period preparing for this, and once your window opens you have trade chips and propsect options that serve you well here.  For example, you cant have all this on your 26, but if some are in the form of prospects, great.  Its how you have extra depth beyond your 26.

I think thats where we are, and I read an article this morning about how Chaim has had quite the glow up.  If Im a St Louis fan, Im looking at RA and Tolle and Early, and Bello, and others, including pieces that went for Crochet, and Im thinking "did we get a steal?"

As a RS fan, I know why Chaims time came and went, but if I was a ST Louis fan, Id look at the sox and be happy to have Chaim. I think, I cant know for sure. 

I agree with your points. I thought Brez met all this criteria and then some, over the winter.

Although Houck had questions over his drop-off in 2024, I still saw him as a viable back--up ace to Crochet and a decent or better #2 SP'er in MLB. I think Bello and Crawford looked like the "2 good pitchers to get to 4." The next "3 to get to 6" looked as good as or better than most other teams have for their 5-7 slots: Buehler, Giolito with Sandoval due back in AUG. Where I really like what Brez did was have another 4-5 SP'ers as depth that was designed to not have to trade for a Dustin May at the deadline: Dobbins, Fitts, Priester, Winckowski and later came Newcomb. I did not foresee Tolle or Early as options, and Brez traded away Priester, but there was still that extended group of 4-6 pitchers as fall-back #5's. (Brez later traded for Harrison.)

I expected we'd use some in the pen, and felt maybe that was why Brez supposedly neglecting the pen by adding "just" Chapman and Wilson. Hardly any SP'ers gave us pen help, and the amount of SP'ers to the IL was shocking, this year.

That's no excuse for not doing better than D May at the deadline, but I have to admit it was a decent strategy to begin with. Why overpay on deadline deals: just make them in the winter at lower costs- not that Crochet came cheap, but Brez did well to get Priester, Fitts & Gio last year, too.

 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

That's no excuse for not doing better than D May at the deadline, but I have to admit it was a decent strategy to begin with. Why overpay on deadline deals: just make them in the winter at lower costs- not that Crochet came cheap, but Brez did well to get Priester, Fitts & Gio last year, too.

That makes sense but deadline deals are a little different because your situation and your needs may be much more clarified.

Dombrowski's 2018 deadline was just about perfect.  He got 3 useful pieces, 2 of them extremely useful, and didn't give up a lot. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That makes sense but deadline deals are a little different because your situation and your needs may be much more clarified.

Dombrowski's 2018 deadline was just about perfect.  He got 3 useful pieces, 2 of them extremely useful, and didn't give up a lot. 

Agreed, but Nate over exceeding expectations, as well as Pearce, too helped seal that legacy.

[Maxbialystock]

19 hours ago, notin said:

So DH - which is a regular position in every lineup everyday - is no different than an outfielder that only starts vs LHP?  Where do I begin here?

I take it next you will be telling me Ozzie Smith is in Cooperstown because of his hitting…

All I'm saying is that anyone who can hit MLB pitching is going to play.  Agree Ref is a lot better against lefties than righties, but he still has filled an important niche.  Are you unaware that half of his at bats have been against righties and that his overall OPS, .873, is highest on the Sox?   Also that he did not DH until Devers left on June 15, When he started before then, it was in the outfield.  The rest of the time he was a pinch hitter.  

Good point about Ozzie Smith, an absolutely dazzling SS whose lifetime OPS was .666. 

I hear you on DH as a "regular position," but would point out that every DH loses points in their overall WAR because they don't field a position.   Ted Williams had a negative DWAR in all 17 of his regular seasons.    So did Manny Ramirez.  So has Rafael Devers. 

 

 

 

 

[notin]

19 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

All I'm saying is that anyone who can hit MLB pitching is going to play.  Agree Ref is a lot better against lefties than righties, but he still has filled an important niche.  Are you unaware that half of his at bats have been against righties and that his overall OPS, .873, is highest on the Sox?   Also that he did not DH until Devers left on June 15, When he started before then, it was in the outfield.  The rest of the time he was a pinch hitter.  

Good point about Ozzie Smith, an absolutely dazzling SS whose lifetime OPS was .666. 

I hear you on DH as a "regular position," but would point out that every DH loses points in their overall WAR because they don't field a position.   Ted Williams had a negative DWAR in all 17 of his regular seasons.    So did Manny Ramirez.  So has Rafael Devers. 

 

 

 

 

Refsnyder has 56 PA vs RHP this year with a .632 OPS.  He has 128 PA vs LHP.  Source: baseball-reference.com.  So no on the half his PAs vs RHP.  It’s actually less than a third.

I called him a situational role player.  Why is that wrong? The situation is an opposing LHP.  Thats when he primarily plays and what he does best.  That he started at all vs RHP means something went terribly wrong…

[Bellhorn04]

43 minutes ago, notin said:

Refsnyder has 56 PA vs RHP this year with a .632 OPS.  He has 128 PA vs LHP.  Source: baseball-reference.com.  So no on the half his PAs vs RHP.  It’s actually less than a third.

I called him a situational role player.  Why is that wrong? The situation is an opposing LHP.  Thats when he primarily plays and what he does best.  That he started at all vs RHP means something went terribly wrong…

Right, but why did you include him in your list of guys we're seeing too much of?  He kills lefties and normally only starts against lefties.  So seeing him in the lineup is normally a good thing.

[notin]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Right, but why did you include him in your list of guys we're seeing too much of?  He kills lefties and normally only starts against lefties.  So seeing him in the lineup is normally a good thing.

And he is the only one I labeled as a situational role player.  Eaton, for example, might be on a bit of a hot streak, relatively speaking.  But overall he is an AAAA player, and his career to date supports that.

Refsnyder does have 5 starts vs RHP this year. Probably 5 more than you’d normally want from him…

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

And he is the only one I labeled as a situational role player.  Eaton, for example, might be on a bit of a hot streak, relatively speaking.  But overall he is an AAAA player, and his career to date supports that.

Refsnyder does have 5 starts vs RHP this year. Probably 5 more than you’d normally want from him…

So he has started against a righty about every 30 games.  I assume those were because of injuries to other players.

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Refsnyder has 56 PA vs RHP this year with a .632 OPS.  He has 128 PA vs LHP.  Source: baseball-reference.com.  So no on the half his PAs vs RHP.  It’s actually less than a third.

I called him a situational role player.  Why is that wrong? The situation is an opposing LHP.  Thats when he primarily plays and what he does best.  That he started at all vs RHP means something went terribly wrong…

Yeah.  I was comparing 56 to 128, not 184.  He still has the highest OPS, .873, on the team and his OPS vs righties, .632, is only a tad below Yoshida's .655.  Plus he's a better fielder with a better arm.  

In his 4 seasons with the Sox Ref's 4 OPS's have been .881, .681, .830, and .873 this year.  

[notin]

14 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Yeah.  I was comparing 56 to 128, not 184.  He still has the highest OPS, .873, on the team and his OPS vs righties, .632, is only a tad below Yoshida's .655.  Plus he's a better fielder with a better arm.  

In his 4 seasons with the Sox Ref's 4 OPS's have been .881, .681, .830, and .873 this year.  

And those OPSs were built by exceeding in his situational role.

Good for Boston that they noticed he had this skill set.  Previous organizations including New York, Toronto, Tampa, Minnesota, Cleveland and Arizona all either gave up on him quickly or failed to notice that his limited skillset did feature one specialty at which he excels.  But really, thats all he has.

Im not sure Hes much better defensively than Yoshida.  Theyre both complete butchers out there and deciding which one is better is like debating whether or not syphilis is more fun than chlamydia…

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So he has started against a righty about every 30 games.  I assume those were because of injuries to other players.

Isn't that how most bench players get their starts?

 

Do you have an actual point? Or are you just over actively refuting the minutiae in a post about the Red Sox being forced to start a significant amount of bench players recently, so maybe their biggest weakness isn’t their first baseman, who happens to be one of only 5 active first basemen with both a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger, so maybe his recent transaction history is overblown as a concern?

[Maxbialystock]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

And those OPSs were built by exceeding in his situational role.

Good for Boston that they noticed he had this skill set.  Previous organizations including New York, Toronto, Tampa, Minnesota, Cleveland and Arizona all either gave up on him quickly or failed to notice that his limited skillset did feature one specialty at which he excels.  But really, thats all he has.

Im not sure Hes much better defensively than Yoshida.  Theyre both complete butchers out there and deciding which one is better is like debating whether or not syphilis is more fun than chlamydia…

You left out that the Sox stayed with Ref as the others did not.

Ref has 53 total chances to Yoshida's 4, so I suspect Cora agrees with me.  Ref even has 2 outfield assists.  His RF is 2.10 to Yoshida's 1.50.  

 

[notin]

7 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

You left out that the Sox stayed with Ref as the others did not.

Ref has 53 total chances to Yoshida's 4, so I suspect Cora agrees with me.  Ref even has 2 outfield assists.  His RF is 2.10 to Yoshida's 1.50.  

 

Huh? That was the point of the post.

 

RF is kind of useless unless you’re comparing two players that play the same position for the same team. 
 

Cora has each player used situationally.  Ref does play RF against LHP, while Yoshida is primarily a DH.  Those roles dictate Ref play the field more.  But honestly, I don’t like this usage.  Platoons have a glaring weakness in their overall strategy - namely one player is always a worse defender.  It’s minimized when it’s the RHH, but it’s certainly not non-existent.  And in the case of Abreu and Refsnyder, the gap is monstrous.  So much so the Sox are probably better off just leaving Abreu out their full time.  Sure he will make more outs at the plate, but he will make more in the field, too.

But the one position where platoons do make sense is DH, as this defensive flaw is omitted.  I’d rather the Sox leave Abreu in RF full time and platoon Yoshida and Refsnyder at DH…

[Maxbialystock]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Isn't that how most bench players get their starts?

 

Do you have an actual point? Or are you just over actively refuting the minutiae in a post about the Red Sox being forced to start a significant amount of bench players recently, so maybe their biggest weakness isn’t their first baseman, who happens to be one of only 5 active first basemen with both a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger, so maybe his recent transaction history is overblown as a concern?

Good stuff on Lowe. 

At the start of the season, Casas, Campbell, and Wong were in the lineup.  Narvaez quickly replaced Wong as the starter.  Campbell and his -1.0 WAR are back in Worcester.  Casas WAR for 29 games was -0.9.   Oh, and the Sox have used 13 starters (including Crawford who never started but not including Bernardino who started 3 games for 1 IP each).   

Right now the Sox scoring/hitting are struggling because Anthony and Abreu are on the IL, Bregman and especially Rafaela are in slumps, and Devers .905 OPS is gone.  

 

[moonslav59]

Being a platoon hitter who only starts vs LHPs is a bit unfortunate, but it is the reality of the game and human nature. Ref's offensive value is less than Abreu due to this, but it is what it is.

One interesting point is that guys like Ref and Romy are minimized, because they "suck vs RHPs," when in reality, they actually suck less vs RHPs than many more highly regarded players do vs LHPs.

Refsnyder's splits (v L & v R)

.986/.632 in '25

.941/.733 in '24 (more PAs v R than L)

.783/.581 in '23

Romy

1.032/.704 (more PAs vs R than L)

.745/.695 (pretty close to even R v L PAs)

Abreu

.721/.828 '25

.532/.825 '24

.400/.928 '23

Duran

.581/.874 '25

.665/.910 '24

.749/.841 '23

How about 2024 to 2025 combined?

v R/v L

.894 Duran (939 PAs)/.626 (431) PAs more t 2:1

.827 Abreu (711 PAs)/.624 (131) PAs more than 5:1

.707 Refsnyder (218)/ .962 (273) PAs about 4:5

.630 Romy (242)/.957 (264) PAs about even

The RHB platoon players play a higher percent vs RHPs than the LHB do vs LHPs, and yet look at the overall OPS:

.846 Refsnyder

.809 Duran

.797 Romy

.795 Abreu

[Bellhorn04]

55 minutes ago, notin said:

Isn't that how most bench players get their starts?

 

Do you have an actual point? Or are you just over actively refuting the minutiae in a post about the Red Sox being forced to start a significant amount of bench players recently, so maybe their biggest weakness isn’t their first baseman, who happens to be one of only 5 active first basemen with both a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger, so maybe his recent transaction history is overblown as a concern?

I really don't need this "what's your point?" crap and the rest of the snark you've been dispensing on this thread.  This should be a harmless discussion about the Sox lineup issues and for some reason you're getting worked into a lather about it.  Lighten up.

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

 I’d rather the Sox leave Abreu in RF full time and platoon Yoshida and Refsnyder at DH…

I agree and said as much a month or two ago. Abreu's RF defense carries a lot of value, too, especially when compared to Ref. (Not so much Anthony.) In a way, Duran deserves to be platooned more than Abreu, but I'm fine with him playing FT.

A Yoshida-Ref DH platoon makes sense. It also takes one OF'er out of the OF rotation to make room for another. With 2 OF'ers on the IL, that is not so important, but when all are healthy, it is.

Romy could also platoon DH with Yoshida, especially in 2026, if Ref retires, but he's needed more as a 1B platoon with Lowe of a 2B platoon with DHam.

IMO, we find a way to dump Yoshida and go with something like this in 2026:

Vs RHP

DH: L Duran

LF: L Anthony

CF: R Rafaela

RF: L Abreu

 

Vs LHP

DH: R Ref or Romy

LF: L Anthony

CF: R Rafaela or L Duran

RF: L Abreu (R Jh Garcia/R Campbell)