Red Sox Day Off Musings

[Brandon Glick]

By expected win-loss, the Red Sox would be tied (with the Yankees, Rangers, and Tigers) for the most wins in the AL with 84.

---

How are you feeling about the state of the Sox right now?

[moonslav59]

I'm very confident we make the payoffs and have at least a 50-50 chance of advancing each round.

Our top 3 SP'ers compare well with every AL playoff team. Our top 2 RP'ers do, too. If Slaten can get to form, maybe our top 3 RP'ers are the best in the AL.

Our defense is improved from 2024 and from the first 2-3 months of 2025.

Our baserunning makes too many bonehead plays or non plays, but are still a clear plus.

Our offense is the big dice roll. On paper, it is top 6 to 10 in most categories, but they can go into long slumps.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Starting pitchers, backend of bullpen can hang with anyone, but could be doomed by the 7th inning drek.

Sox need one guy to trust and bridge to Whitlock/Chapman. I don't care if it's a rookie, it's time to audition this weekend vs. the Yankees at home.

On offense, someone needs go yard, a bat needs to get hot and find a power stroke like Ceddanne had before the All-Star break. Bregman or Abreu would seem most likely, except both will be playing hurt.

It may seem folly to expect Lowe to suddenly swats 5 longballs in 15 games... but this is what it's come down to: the Red Sox are already trying to make the playoffs by batting a guy clean-up who was just cut a few weeks ago by a last place team.

[notin]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Starting pitchers, backend of bullpen can hang with anyone, but could be doomed by the 7th inning drek.

Sox need one guy to trust and bridge to Whitlock/Chapman. I don't care if it's a rookie, it's time to audition this weekend vs. the Yankees at home.

On offense, someone needs go yard, a bat needs to get hot and find a power stroke like Ceddanne had before the All-Star break. Bregman or Abreu would seem most likely, except both will be playing hurt.

It may seem folly to expect Lowe to suddenly swats 5 longballs in 15 games... but this is what it's come down to: the Red Sox are already trying to make the playoffs by batting a guy clean-up who was just cut a few weeks ago by a last place team.

Lowe’s recent history is hardly the most alarming part of this lineup.  Everyday they use at least two from Eaton, Refsnyder, Hamilton and Sogard.  These are all players whose CEILING is “last man on an MLB bench” and the only reason they’re surpassing it now is only one player can be the last man on the Sox bench…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Lowe’s recent history is hardly the most alarming part of this lineup.  Everyday they use at least two from Eaton, Refsnyder, Hamilton and Sogard.  These are all players whose CEILING is “last man on an MLB bench” and the only reason they’re surpassing it now is only one player can be the last man on the Sox bench…

I'm not homer happy, but a few HRs can swing a low-scoring game, especially in the postseason when most pitching is tough.

It's probably our best bet, because we can't expect anyone in this line-up to suddenly look like a .300 hitter -- or even a .290 guy like Anthony.

[notin]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'm not homer happy, but a few HRs can swing a low-scoring game, especially in the postseason when most pitching is tough.

It's probably our best bet, because we can't expect anyone in this line-up to suddenly look like a .300 hitter -- or even a .290 guy like Anthony.

But not Sogard?

[drewski6]

43 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm very confident we make the payoffs and have at least a 50-50 chance of advancing each round.

Our top 3 SP'ers compare well with every AL playoff team. Our top 2 RP'ers do, too. If Slaten can get to form, maybe our top 3 RP'ers are the best in the AL.

Our defense is improved from 2024 and from the first 2-3 months of 2025.

Our baserunning makes too many bonehead plays or non plays, but are still a clear plus.

Our offense is the big dice roll. On paper, it is top 6 to 10 in most categories, but they can go into long slumps.

I think I like the way this team looks compared to others in a postseason.

Our rotation is top heavy, that helps in postseason (first bullet is stealing your bullets, admit)
Second bullet also a complete jack of yours (small ball goes up, we have zee wheels, lebowski)
Breggie got that playoff experience (new bullet, yay)
Story may not but hes such a pro, I highly doubt that he will do anything diff cuz its postseason (what you want)
Chapman is fearless (nikki bella reference only MVP will get)
Duran got that intensity, which granted can go in 2 diff ways, but I think its going to help us more than hurt
Maybe RA comes back
We got some pitchers who batters havent seen a lot of and I think that can help

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

But not Sogard?

Sogard might lose his place to the pinch runners Hamilton and Eaton, cuz small ball baby

[drewski6]

pinch running and small ball late and close in playoffs is a lot of fun. Looking forward to it. Enjoying even talking about it (no jinx, no jinx, no jinx)

[moonslav59]

With all the injuries plus the loss of Devers, I think our bench and depth have done better than expected and better than most teams might have done. (Devers, Casas, Anthony, Abreu & Mayer.)

In the last 10 games (6-4) we've scored 1 run twice. The other run totals have been 5, 6, 11, 5, 7, 7, 6 and 4. That's 8 games with 4 or more scored and 7 with 5 or more. One could argue it's not the offense's fault we didn't go 7-3. The 6 and 4 record was a team event.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think I like the way this team looks compared to others in a postseason.

Our rotation is top heavy, that helps in postseason (first bullet is stealing your bullets, admit)
Second bullet also a complete jack of yours (small ball goes up, we have zee wheels, lebowski)
Breggie got that playoff experience (new bullet, yay)
Story may not but hes such a pro, I highly doubt that he will do anything diff cuz its postseason (what you want)
Chapman is fearless (nikki bella reference only MVP will get)
Duran got that intensity, which granted can go in 2 diff ways, but I think its going to help us more than hurt
Maybe RA comes back
We got some pitchers who batters havent seen a lot of and I think that can help

Nice laydown.

I'd add: if RA does not return, maybe WA might be just enough of a boost to the O to get us farther into the playoffs. (He was our HR leader before going on the IL.)

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

With all the injuries plus the loss of Devers, I think our bench and depth have done better than expected and better than most teams might have done. (Devers, Casas, Anthony, Abreu & Mayer.)

In the last 10 games (6-4) we've scored 1 run twice. The other run totals have been 5, 6, 11, 5, 7, 7, 6 and 4. That's 8 games with 4 or more scored and 7 with 5 or more. One could argue it's not the offense's fault we didn't go 7-3. The 6 and 4 record was a team event.

I agree, and I manage differently in playoffs.  You hold weapons back more in playoffs.  E.g. maybe Hamilton might start a game in reg season due to his D, but in playoffs, you may hold him until first pinch running opportunity.

You use your whole team more in playoffs. And speed is super helpful in playoffs. Especially these days.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I agree, and I manage differently in playoffs.  You hold weapons back more in playoffs.  E.g. maybe Hamilton might start a game in reg season due to his D, but in playoffs, you may hold him until first pinch running opportunity.

You use your whole team more in playoffs. And speed is super helpful in playoffs. Especially these days.

Very true. We may also see DHam PR then come in to play defense in the late innings.

[notin]

22 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I agree, and I manage differently in playoffs.  You hold weapons back more in playoffs.  E.g. maybe Hamilton might start a game in reg season due to his D, but in playoffs, you may hold him until first pinch running opportunity.

You use your whole team more in playoffs. And speed is super helpful in playoffs. Especially these days.

Bear in mind - no ghost runners in the postseason…

[Cameron Tran]

 

39 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Nice laydown.

I'd add: if RA does not return, maybe WA might be just enough of a boost to the O to get us farther into the playoffs. (He was our HR leader before going on the IL.)

Putting Wilyer in right also gives us the probably the best defensive outfield in the game. I want to hold out hope Ceddanne will get hot as he adjusts back to life in CF (his slump coincides with the move to 2nd), but it is getting really late for him. 

[Cameron Tran]

KC has played RF for the past 3 games in Worcester. Anything there?

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Cameron Tran said:

KC has played RF for the past 3 games in Worcester. Anything there?

He can play corner OF. It's not pretty all the time, but he can play it. His bat still isn't where it was last season no matter how much we want it to be. 

I think he hurt himself earlier this season (ribs or oblique, don't remember) and never quite recovered and it has impacted his swing. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Lowe’s recent history is hardly the most alarming part of this lineup.  Everyday they use at least two from Eaton, Refsnyder, Hamilton and Sogard.  These are all players whose CEILING is “last man on an MLB bench” and the only reason they’re surpassing it now is only one player can be the last man on the Sox bench…

Not sure that's fair to Refsnyder where he's probably one of the best hitters in baseball against lefties.

Are there any teams in baseball that don't put at least 2 crappy hitters in the lineup most games?

  

[notin]

19 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Not sure that's fair to Refsnyder where he's probably one of the best hitters in baseball against lefties.

Are there any teams in baseball that don't put at least 2 crappy hitters in the lineup most games?

  

Yes.

Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, Astros.  Sure they have starters that have the occasional year, but that’s not the same as having multiple starters acquired as minor league free agents.  And some teams have players who are “crappy hitters” but solid-to-better defensive player.
 

Bear in mind that there is more to baseball than hitting LHP.  Refsnyder has one situational skill that is carrying his career.  Romy Gonzalez has a similar skill set but at least couples it with passable defense at multiple positions…

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, notin said:

Bear in mind that there is more to baseball than hitting LHP.

A tad heavy-handed, sir!

[notin]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

A tad heavy-handed, sir!

Hey, Refsnyder is a one-dimensional situational role player.  He does excel in that role (9th best OPS vs LHP in MLB over the past 3 seasons).  But it’s almost never good to need him outside of that role…

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

Yes.

Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, Astros.  Sure they have starters that have the occasional year, but that’s not the same as having multiple starters acquired as minor league free agents.  And some teams have players who are “crappy hitters” but solid-to-better defensive player.
 

Bear in mind that there is more to baseball than hitting LHP.  Refsnyder has one situational skill that is carrying his career.  Romy Gonzalez has a similar skill set but at least couples it with passable defense at multiple positions…

Romy has been okay vs RHPs, this year, and he's better off-handed than many other Sox and league players, this year, too.

The teams you listed as not having 2 crappy hitters is debatable:

NYY: Volpe .661 (3rd on team in PAs) + Catchers Wells .715 & Escarra .629

LAD: Conforto .621 (6th in PAs) & Edman .675 (9th) 10th and below suck.

SDP: Arraez is at .702 (3rd), Bogey .717 (4th), Iggy .563 (8th) and Diaz .600 (9th) His back-up is at .572.

TOR: Clement .715 (3rd) Gimenez .609 (8th) Sraw .676 (9th)

DET: You have a point with them (Baez .682 and 8th) It's bad 10-13th.

HOU: has 5 batters in their top 8 below .740, 4 below .710 and 2 below .675.

Our bottom of the order is one of the best in MLB. While injuries have forced more bad batters into our line-up, other teams have injuries, too. 

Team rank by batting slot:

9th: 2nd at .740 (.644) +96

8th: 25th at .615 (.657) -42

7th: 6th at .731 (.684) +47

6th: 6th at .746 (.694) +52

5th: 4th at .782 (.722) +60

4th: 30th at .668 (Our biggest slot weakness) .762 MLB (-94)

3rd: 6th at .835 (.784) +51

2nd: 10th at .794 (.763) +31

1st: 4th at .813 (.753) +60

In terms of rankings, our bottom 4 outperform our top 4.

[notin]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Romy has been okay vs RHPs, this year, and he's better off-handed than many other Sox and league players, this year, too.

The teams you listed as not having 2 crappy hitters is debatable:

NYY: Volpe .661 (3rd on team in PAs) + Catchers Wells .715 & Escarra .629

LAD: Conforto .621 (6th in PAs) & Edman .675 (9th) 10th and below suck.

SDP: Arraez is at .702 (3rd), Bogey .717 (4th), Iggy .563 (8th) and Diaz .600 (9th) His back-up is at .572.

TOR: Clement .715 (3rd) Gimenez .609 (8th) Sraw .676 (9th)

DET: You have a point with them (Baez .682 and 8th) It's bad 10-13th.

HOU: has 5 batters in their top 8 below .740, 4 below .710 and 2 below .675.

Our bottom of the order is one of the best in MLB. While injuries have forced more bad batters into our line-up, other teams have injuries, too. 

Team rank by batting slot:

9th: 2nd at .740 (.644) +96

8th: 25th at .615 (.657) -42

7th: 6th at .731 (.684) +47

6th: 6th at .746 (.694) +52

5th: 4th at .782 (.722) +60

4th: 30th at .668 (Our biggest slot weakness) .762 MLB (-94)

3rd: 6th at .835 (.784) +51

2nd: 10th at .794 (.763) +31

1st: 4th at .813 (.753) +60

In terms of rankings, our bottom 4 outperform our top 4.

There is a major differ between a hitter having a bad season and a “crappy” hitter.  Bogaerts and Arraez are not comparable to Eaton and Sogard.  There is a reason two of them are on multi-year 8 figure contracts and the other two signed minor league deals.

 

And don’t lump all bad hitters in as replacement players.  Andres Gimenez has not only hit better, but is a former Platinum Glove winner.  How many defensive awards does Refsnyder have?

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Lowe’s recent history is hardly the most alarming part of this lineup.  Everyday they use at least two from Eaton, Refsnyder, Hamilton and Sogard.  These are all players whose CEILING is “last man on an MLB bench” and the only reason they’re surpassing it now is only one player can be the last man on the Sox bench…

Meh. 

I'm looking at the espn Sox stats chart and it shows that Campbell's WAR for 67 games was -1.0, Casas's for 29 games was -0.9, Toro's for 77 games was -0.4, and Yoshida's for 41 games is -0.3.

Of the four you cited, Hamilton's WAR for 84 games is +1.0 and Ref's for 62 games is +1.2.  

I completely agree the Sox hitting is suspect, but find it hard to blame that on the bottom of the order guys--and you left out Wong with his -0.6 WAR in 56 games.  

The real problem is the absence of Anthony and Abreu (and maybe Mayer) combined with the slumps of Bregman and Rafaela.  Yesterday Cora batted Lowe, a reject from the Nationals a month ago, 3d in the lineup.  He was hitless.  Like you, I'm not much of an Eaton fan, but he had 2 hits with an rbi and a run scored.  

It is what it is.  The real strength of this team is the pitching.  

 

 

[Cameron Tran]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Romy has been okay vs RHPs, this year, and he's better off-handed than many other Sox and league players, this year, too.

The teams you listed as not having 2 crappy hitters is debatable:

NYY: Volpe .661 (3rd on team in PAs) + Catchers Wells .715 & Escarra .629

LAD: Conforto .621 (6th in PAs) & Edman .675 (9th) 10th and below suck.

SDP: Arraez is at .702 (3rd), Bogey .717 (4th), Iggy .563 (8th) and Diaz .600 (9th) His back-up is at .572.

TOR: Clement .715 (3rd) Gimenez .609 (8th) Sraw .676 (9th)

DET: You have a point with them (Baez .682 and 8th) It's bad 10-13th.

HOU: has 5 batters in their top 8 below .740, 4 below .710 and 2 below .675.

Our bottom of the order is one of the best in MLB. While injuries have forced more bad batters into our line-up, other teams have injuries, too. 

Team rank by batting slot:

9th: 2nd at .740 (.644) +96

8th: 25th at .615 (.657) -42

7th: 6th at .731 (.684) +47

6th: 6th at .746 (.694) +52

5th: 4th at .782 (.722) +60

4th: 30th at .668 (Our biggest slot weakness) .762 MLB (-94)

3rd: 6th at .835 (.784) +51

2nd: 10th at .794 (.763) +31

1st: 4th at .813 (.753) +60

In terms of rankings, our bottom 4 outperform our top 4.

Every team will have to deal with blackholes on offense, and luckily our offensive black holes have their strengths and excel at certain things:

Rafaela - Defense

Eaton - Speed

Hamilton - Speed

Sogard - Versatility (and he's delivered some big hits recently)

Even Wong has shown to be a favorite amongst the pitching staff

We only complain about our "blackholes" because those are the "blackholes" we know the most about. We have arguably one of the most well-balanced teams in the AL, while having potentially the best front 3 in the rotation and THE best setup-closer duo in the league.

[Cameron Tran]

Our offensive biggest problem down the stretch is the lack of raw power. Getting Abreu back will help, but not having a true homerun threat does worry me a little

[Cameron Tran]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

There is a major differ between a hitter having a bad season and a “crappy” hitter.  Bogaerts and Arraez are not comparable to Eaton and Sogard.  There is a reason two of them are on multi-year 8 figure contracts and the other two signed minor league deals…

The Brewers are undoubtedly the best team in the league, they are playing Brice Turang (never a top 100 prospect), Andrew Vaughn (Career .721 OPS), Caleb Durbin (14th round pick) and Isaac Collins (28yr old rookie) nearly every day. Name value isn't everything. Eaton and Sogard have both been coming through these past few days at a higher level than I think anyone could have asked for.

[Maxbialystock]

49 minutes ago, notin said:

Hey, Refsnyder is a one-dimensional situational role player.  He does excel in that role (9th best OPS vs LHP in MLB over the past 3 seasons).  But it’s almost never good to need him outside of that role…

Devers was even more of a "situational role player" this season for the Sox. He was the DH every day and all day long, and his OPS was .905.  Big Papi was a "situational role player" for the Sox and is in the HOF.  

Manny Ramirez was a liability in LF, always with a negative DWAR, but a huge asset at bat.  In 1958 Ted Williams DWAR in LF was a whopping -2.4, but he came in 7th in MVP voting because his OPS was 1.042.

Hitting isn't everything.  It's the only thing--and don't you forget it.  

[Maxbialystock]

7 minutes ago, Cameron Tran said:

Every team will have to deal with blackholes on offense, and luckily our offensive black holes have their strengths and excel at certain things:

Rafaela - Defense

Eaton - Speed

Hamilton - Speed

Sogard - Versatility (and he's delivered some big hits recently)

Even Wong has shown to be a favorite amongst the pitching staff

We only complain about our "blackholes" because those are the "blackholes" we know the most about. We have arguably one of the most well-balanced teams in the AL, while having potentially the best front 3 in the rotation and THE best setup-closer duo in the league.

Well said.  I would hasten to add that right now 2 of the Sox best hitters, Anthony and Abreu, are on the IL and Bregman with his ever-diminishing OPS of .836 is in a slump.  

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Meh. 

I'm looking at the espn Sox stats chart and it shows that Campbell's WAR for 67 games was -1.0, Casas's for 29 games was -0.9, Toro's for 77 games was -0.4, and Yoshida's for 41 games is -0.3.

Of the four you cited, Hamilton's WAR for 84 games is +1.0 and Ref's for 62 games is +1.2.  

I completely agree the Sox hitting is suspect, but find it hard to blame that on the bottom of the order guys--and you left out Wong with his -0.6 WAR in 56 games.  

The real problem is the absence of Anthony and Abreu (and maybe Mayer) combined with the slumps of Bregman and Rafaela.  Yesterday Cora batted Lowe, a reject from the Nationals a month ago, 3d in the lineup.  He was hitless.  Like you, I'm not much of an Eaton fan, but he had 2 hits with an rbi and a run scored.  

It is what it is.  The real strength of this team is the pitching.  

If I had to order the blame on the reasons for the offensive swoon:

1. Anthony injury

2. Breggie

3. Duran mediocre season

4. Abreu injury

5. Bottom of the order guys hitting like bottom of the order guys