Article: Alex Bregman's Future with the Red Sox Is Murky Given Latest Contract Reports

[Alex Mayes]

ESPN’s Jeff Passan published an article on Thursday, September 4 where he said that he expects third baseman Alex Bregman to opt out of the rest of his contract with the Boston Red Sox and test free agency. Passan further notes that Bregman is expected to receive the five-year/$175 million contract that eluded him before the 2025 season began. With the season Bregman has been having, it’s not shocking to hear that he’s going to test the free agency waters again. He’s currently on one of the cushiest contracts in the sport: three years for $120 million with opt-outs after the 2025 and 2026 seasons. Even with the deferred money built into the agreement, Bregman is sitting pretty while playing for a cornerstone franchise. While he potentially stands to get more on the open market, the Red Sox shouldn’t feel the need to overextend themselves and pay that kind of money over the next five years.

As @Brandon Glick highlighted here on Talk Sox, Bregman is in the midst of his longest cold stretch of the season. It’s absolutely fixable, but it allows us to see into the future just a bit. If the Red Sox sign Bregman to a five-year deal, he’s going to be playing out the last year of that contract during his age-37 season. Since August 17, Bregman is hitting below the Mendoza line, slashing .182/.264/.221 with a -0.3 WAR. That’s not to say those are the types of numbers he’s going to put up in five years, but these non-competitive at bats are going to become more frequent as he grows older. While playing at Fenway Park has given him a boost, he hasn’t tortured the Green Monster like we all anticipated he would. As his power wanes, the hard contact will too. If he were to accept less than $35 million a season, that decline wouldn’t be nearly as difficult to stomach, but for that kind of money, the Red Sox are better off turning their attention elsewhere.

Internally, there’s one name that stands out as the replacement to Bregman at the hot corner: Marcelo Mayer. Bregman’s injury earlier in the season allowed for the team to call up Mayer and he performed incredibly well as the starting third baseman in many respects. His glove rivaled Bregman’s, and arguably even looked better as the young gun got more comfortable. Obviously, the offensive drop-off is significant from Bregman to Mayer, but if the rookie comes into camp knowing he has the edge for a starting spot on the team, he’s going to come in ready to show just why the team picked him in the first round. Mayer wasn’t able to tap into his offensive talent much before his injury. The intangibles are there though, and as long as he can avoid spending significant time on the injured list, he would be a fine replacement for Bregman, even if the lineup is sapped of some valuable middle-of-the-order production. After that though, the system is pretty thin. The Red Sox traded Blaze Jordan to the Cardinals, and Abraham Toro has been playing third for the WooSox since his demotion, but he's hardly a regular at the MLB level. That leaves free agency as the next likely option to fill a potential Bregman void.

The third base free agent market isn’t incredibly robust. After Bregman, the only options you’d likely consider as regulars are Eugenio Suarez and Max Muncy. Both players have the ability to perform well at Fenway, but are question marks in terms of fit and defensive value. Obviously, Bregman will remain an option until he has signed elsewhere, but the Red Sox should be unwilling to pay $35 million a season for a third baseman who is certainly nearing the end of his prime. If someone like the Yankees or Tigers want to be hamstrung by that contract, let them. This era of the Red Sox has been defined by cautious, low-risk, long-term investments. Bregman is the kind of high-floor player worth investing in, but at his age, the risk on any contract will go up exponentially for every year that is tacked on.

Let's get something straight: Alex Bregman is a great baseball player. I even advocated for him to be in Boston until the end of his career at one point, but that was before these contract numbers started getting thrown around. The Red Sox have actively worked to avoid being a franchise saddled with a big contract that is sure to become an albatross toward the the latter end. If Bregman is willing to come down on his number to stay in Boston, great. If not though (likely, since his agent is Scott Boras), let him be someone else’s financial headache starting next season.

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[Sawxfan]

I give it a 75% chance Bregman re-signs with Boston for somewhere around 5yr/150mil, he simply means too much to this team to let him go. He is a gold glove 3b that is pretty much guaranteed to give you a .275ba, .350obp, .800ops, 125ops+ 30+2b and 25+hr line every year. Shockingly, he was far better on the road this year vs Fenway, which is very puzzling considering his career numbers at Fenway prior to this year. On top of what he gives you on the field, his leadership in the clubhouse can NOT be overstated. His influence on young guys like Anthony, Mayer, Campbell brings a ton of value. Rumors are that his wife fell in love with Boston, and we all know his close ties to Cora, which leads me to believe that the Sox end up ponying up and keeping Bregman in Boston

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

14 minutes ago, Sawxfan said:

I give it a 75% chance Bregman re-signs with Boston for somewhere around 5yr/150mil, he simply means too much to this team to let him go. He is a gold glove 3b that is pretty much guaranteed to give you a .275ba, .350obp, .800ops, 125ops+ 30+2b and 25+hr line every year. Shockingly, he was far better on the road this year vs Fenway, which is very puzzling considering his career numbers at Fenway prior to this year. On top of what he gives you on the field, his leadership in the clubhouse can NOT be overstated. His influence on young guys like Anthony, Mayer, Campbell brings a ton of value. Rumors are that his wife fell in love with Boston, and we all know his close ties to Cora, which leads me to believe that the Sox end up ponying up and keeping Bregman in Boston

Good take.

Fans get too hung up on the now -- and right now, Bregman's bat is in a bit of a lull, so people fear he's turning into a righty Yoshida. But AB has so much more to offer in so many aspects on and off the field, as has been chronicled by reporters and teammates all season.

Bregman has been a difference-maker, if just for his steady defense so vital in support of the Sox' top strength: pitching.

What the Sox really need to do in the offseason is recruit a consistent power threat to take the pressure off Alex Bregman and replace Devers' home runs.

[mvp 78]

Campbell has played every position except for C. He must look really rough at 3b as he only has 5 appearances there. 

I'd rather Mayer up the middle, but Bregman built a career being a MIF playing and above average 3b. Is there less wear and tear over there? I don't think that much. I guess it's just the option they are stuck with at the moment. 

I wouldn't sign Breggie for 5 years. We already saw what his body looked like in year one. 

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Campbell has played every position except for C. He must look really rough at 3b as he only has 5 appearances there. 

I'd rather Mayer up the middle, but Bregman built a career being a MIF playing and above average 3b. Is there less wear and tear over there? I don't think that much. I guess it's just the option they are stuck with at the moment. 

I wouldn't sign Breggie for 5 years. We already saw what his body looked like in year one. 

I'm wondering if 4 years is too much. His offense was in decline for a few years before coming to BOS.

OPS+

162 in 2019

134 in '22

122 in '23

117 in '24

(129, now)

He turns 32 in March.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Campbell has played every position except for C. He must look really rough at 3b as he only has 5 appearances there. 

I'd rather Mayer up the middle, but Bregman built a career being a MIF playing and above average 3b. Is there less wear and tear over there? I don't think that much. I guess it's just the option they are stuck with at the moment. 

I wouldn't sign Breggie for 5 years. We already saw what his body looked like in year one. 

Maybe a 3 year guarantee plus vesting options based on games played.  Or something like that...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I wouldn't sign Breggie for 5 years. We already saw what his body looked like in year one. 

That body leaning on the railing with the boys in the dugout or next to them in the batting cage provides intangibles -- especially to the young core in its formative years. 

There aren't reports about any of the rookies inspiring teammates like Bregman has. Everyone respects Anthony for his talent and maturity, and Narvaez backstops some pretty good pitchers. But they're not quite leaders yet, while guys like Mayer, Campbell and Garcia aren't even followers. 

Sox need more Dobbins and Tolle tudes!

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Maybe a 3 year guarantee plus vesting options based on games played.  Or something like that...

Sounds best, but someone will offer him 4-5 guaranteed, unless this slump worsens and lengthens.

[Bellhorn04]

52 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sounds best, but someone will offer him 4-5 guaranteed, unless this slump worsens and lengthens.

I'm fairly comfortable the Sox will come up with an offer that will retain him, but you never know with these things of course.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm fairly comfortable the Sox will come up with an offer that will retain him, but you never know with these things of course.

If we spent it on Alonso, Suarez or Schwarber instead, I'd be okay.

[Maxbialystock]

Thanks everyone for the excellent discussion.

To me 5 years at $175M is absurd even though I agree his effect on his teammates is valuable.  In 10 years in MLB he has been on the All-Star team 3 times, has one Gold Glove, and had by far his best season in 2019, 6 years ago.

Right now he's easily the highest paid player on the team with the 6th highest WAR on the team.  Crochet, Chapman, Duran, Story, and Rafaela all have higher WAR's--primarily, I hasten to add, because they stayed healthy.  

And then there's The Kid, Anthony, whose WAR in 71 games is 3.1 compared to Bregman's 3.3 in 99 games.  Anthony's 10  years younger and just signed for $130M for 8 years.  One could almost argue that Anthony's contract, including whatever bonuses he earns, makes a sweet contract for Bregman possible.  

FWIW, I think the real strength of the 2025 Sox is the pitching staff, and I doubt that Bregman has much wisdom to pass along to them--and they're half the team.  

I think Mayer would be a pretty decent replacement for Bregman.  

 

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

56 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If we spent it on Alonso, Suarez or Schwarber instead, I'd be okay.

They didn't want Alonso last year, so it's not happening this year.

Schwarber isn't leaving Philly.

Suarez is a good bat, but is starting to play Devers level defense at 3b. 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm fairly comfortable the Sox will come up with an offer that will retain him, but you never know with these things of course.

It Breggy wants 5 years, let him walk.

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They didn't want Alonso last year, so it's not happening this year.

Schwarber isn't leaving Philly.

Suarez is a good bat, but is starting to play Devers level defense at 3b. 

I was thinking Suarez at 1B and your favorite, Mayer, at 3B.

That still leaves 2B as our thorn.

[Maxbialystock]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I was thinking Suarez at 1B and your favorite, Mayer, at 3B.

That still leaves 2B as our thorn.

Gonzalez OPS in 83 games is .829 and currently 3d best on the active roster (Ref and Anthony are out).  

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I was thinking Suarez at 1B and your favorite, Mayer, at 3B.

That still leaves 2B as our thorn.

Why does Suarez keep bopping from team to team? Bad guy? Maybe harmony can answer. 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

57 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why does Suarez keep bopping from team to team? Bad guy? Maybe harmony can answer. 

Similar to Hunter Renfroe.

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Similar to Hunter Renfroe.

One bad hombre. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Why does Suarez keep bopping from team to team? Bad guy? Maybe harmony can answer. 

Bad fielder? FA after 2025, this time.

It's not like he has a mega contract.

He's been a beast for several years.

49 HRs in '19

31, 31, 22 and 30 from "21-'24

45 this year

[Kimmi]

The best part about Bregman's current contract is that it is only for 3 years.  As much as I want him back, extending him for 4 or 5 years would be a mistake, IMO.

I cannot speak highly enough about Bregman's leadership on this team, and how important I think he is for our young core.  I really hope that the Red Sox and Bregman can work out something creative to keep him on the team (one additional year?) without an outrageously long extension.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

1 hour ago, Kimmi said:

The best part about Bregman's current contract is that it is only for 3 years.  As much as I want him back, extending him for 4 or 5 years would be a mistake, IMO.

I cannot speak highly enough about Bregman's leadership on this team, and how important I think he is for our young core.  I really hope that the Red Sox and Bregman can work out something creative to keep him on the team (one additional year?) without an outrageously long extension.

At this point I really don't care if he stays or opts out. Maybe I'll feel different before the season ends. 

[moonslav59]

5 years, no.

4 years, maybe, if the AAV is not insane.

3 years is fine.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

12 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Campbell has played every position except for C. He must look really rough at 3b as he only has 5 appearances there. 

I'd rather Mayer up the middle, but Bregman built a career being a MIF playing and above average 3b. Is there less wear and tear over there? I don't think that much. I guess it's just the option they are stuck with at the moment. 

I wouldn't sign Breggie for 5 years. We already saw what his body looked like in year one. 

I agree 100 percent.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

6 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I agree 100 percent.

 

6 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I agree 100 percent.

In fact, I'd rather give Story a 3 year extension than offering Bregman a new contract if he decides to opt out.

[moonslav59]

So, sign Alonso, G Torres and trade Abreu, Crawford & Clarke for Ryan and then Campbell, Sandlin and Mullins for Keller.

1. Duran LF

2. Anthony RF

3. Story 3B

4. Alonso 1B

5. Casas-Romy DH

6. Torres 2B

7. Mayer 3B

8. Narvaez C

9. Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Jh Garcia, DHam, Yoshida

SP: Crochet, Ryan, Bello, Keller, Sandoval

[Tolle, Dobbins, Early, Harrison, Fitts, Criswell. Perales]

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino, Moran, Guerrero, Hicks

[Murphy, Kelly, Winckowski, Mullins, SP'er]

[TedYazPapiMookie]

$40 Million a year is still an overpay for Bregman who roughly produces a 4.0 WAR and an OPS+ around 125 over the last several years.  Yes, teams could out bid the $40 Million for his 32 and 33 year old seasons but if they do they can have him.  As good as he's been this year, his numbers are fairly comparable to recent previous seasons.  His value appears to be much greater because he has made such a huge difference when compared to Devers on defense.  He increased team wins by at least 10 games by simply being an above average 3B versus a horrendous 3B like we've all been used to for the last 8 years.  Not all teams will enjoy the same wins gained by Boston because nobody else had a 3B as terrible as Devers on defense.  That makes the $40 Million dollar cost not likely to be matched by other teams unless they are simply wealthy and want to hurt the Red Sox.

$80 Million the next two years could be extended by one season as a sign of good faith to Bregman without hurting Boston future because the young players will keep costs down for the next several years.  Otherwise, if Bregman thinks he's worth more than $40 Million at age 32 after 4 slightly above league average seasons, he can opt out and find out if the market is going to pay a more ridiculous amount than Boston is willing to pay him the next two years.

 

[cp176]

21 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

That body leaning on the railing with the boys in the dugout or next to them in the batting cage provides intangibles -- especially to the young core in its formative years. 

There aren't reports about any of the rookies inspiring teammates like Bregman has. Everyone respects Anthony for his talent and maturity, and Narvaez backstops some pretty good pitchers. But they're not quite leaders yet, while guys like Mayer, Campbell and Garcia aren't even followers. 

Sox need more Dobbins and Tolle tudes!

whatever it takes I say.  Keep people like this in Boston forever.  I think that you are right about the intangibles.  He is someone I’d like to see in that dugout for a long long time.

[moonslav59]

Would Bregman take $120M/3 over $150M/4 or $175M/5?

[Sawxfan]

19 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

They didn't want Alonso last year, so it's not happening this year.

Schwarber isn't leaving Philly.

Suarez is a good bat, but is starting to play Devers level defense at 3b. 

Suarez is NOT a good bat, his avg stat line over the past 5 years is .229ba, .304obp, .768ops, he is a decent home run hitter, NOTHING more. He also will be 35 years old next year, is his defense is falling off a cliff.

[Sawxfan]

46 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Would Bregman take $120M/3 over $150M/4 or $175M/5?

I doubt it, I think he wants the security of a 5 year deal for his final MLB contract.