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ESPN’s Jeff Passan published an article on Thursday, September 4 where he said that he expects third baseman Alex Bregman to opt out of the rest of his contract with the Boston Red Sox and test free agency. Passan further notes that Bregman is expected to receive the five-year/$175 million contract that eluded him before the 2025 season began. With the season Bregman has been having, it’s not shocking to hear that he’s going to test the free agency waters again. He’s currently on one of the cushiest contracts in the sport: three years for $120 million with opt-outs after the 2025 and 2026 seasons. Even with the deferred money built into the agreement, Bregman is sitting pretty while playing for a cornerstone franchise. While he potentially stands to get more on the open market, the Red Sox shouldn’t feel the need to overextend themselves and pay that kind of money over the next five years.
As @Brandon Glick highlighted here on Talk Sox, Bregman is in the midst of his longest cold stretch of the season. It’s absolutely fixable, but it allows us to see into the future just a bit. If the Red Sox sign Bregman to a five-year deal, he’s going to be playing out the last year of that contract during his age-37 season. Since August 17, Bregman is hitting below the Mendoza line, slashing .182/.264/.221 with a -0.3 WAR. That’s not to say those are the types of numbers he’s going to put up in five years, but these non-competitive at bats are going to become more frequent as he grows older. While playing at Fenway Park has given him a boost, he hasn’t tortured the Green Monster like we all anticipated he would. As his power wanes, the hard contact will too. If he were to accept less than $35 million a season, that decline wouldn’t be nearly as difficult to stomach, but for that kind of money, the Red Sox are better off turning their attention elsewhere.
Internally, there’s one name that stands out as the replacement to Bregman at the hot corner: Marcelo Mayer. Bregman’s injury earlier in the season allowed for the team to call up Mayer and he performed incredibly well as the starting third baseman in many respects. His glove rivaled Bregman’s, and arguably even looked better as the young gun got more comfortable. Obviously, the offensive drop-off is significant from Bregman to Mayer, but if the rookie comes into camp knowing he has the edge for a starting spot on the team, he’s going to come in ready to show just why the team picked him in the first round. Mayer wasn’t able to tap into his offensive talent much before his injury. The intangibles are there though, and as long as he can avoid spending significant time on the injured list, he would be a fine replacement for Bregman, even if the lineup is sapped of some valuable middle-of-the-order production. After that though, the system is pretty thin. The Red Sox traded Blaze Jordan to the Cardinals, and Abraham Toro has been playing third for the WooSox since his demotion, but he's hardly a regular at the MLB level. That leaves free agency as the next likely option to fill a potential Bregman void.
The third base free agent market isn’t incredibly robust. After Bregman, the only options you’d likely consider as regulars are Eugenio Suarez and Max Muncy. Both players have the ability to perform well at Fenway, but are question marks in terms of fit and defensive value. Obviously, Bregman will remain an option until he has signed elsewhere, but the Red Sox should be unwilling to pay $35 million a season for a third baseman who is certainly nearing the end of his prime. If someone like the Yankees or Tigers want to be hamstrung by that contract, let them. This era of the Red Sox has been defined by cautious, low-risk, long-term investments. Bregman is the kind of high-floor player worth investing in, but at his age, the risk on any contract will go up exponentially for every year that is tacked on.
Let's get something straight: Alex Bregman is a great baseball player. I even advocated for him to be in Boston until the end of his career at one point, but that was before these contract numbers started getting thrown around. The Red Sox have actively worked to avoid being a franchise saddled with a big contract that is sure to become an albatross toward the the latter end. If Bregman is willing to come down on his number to stay in Boston, great. If not though (likely, since his agent is Scott Boras), let him be someone else’s financial headache starting next season.
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