Article: Pay Your Toll(e): Payton Tolle's Promotion Proves Red Sox Are Going All-In This Season

[Nick John]

News broke early Thursday night that their top pitching prospect, Payton Tolle, would be making his major league debut Friday night against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The move, Boston’s fifth promotion of a Top 100 prospect in their system this season, shows the organization's commitment to this team.

Tolle, a former second round pick in 2024, jumped up prospect ranks throughout the season thanks to his brilliant work on the mound. In 20 games across three minor league levels -- High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A -- Tolle dominated with 133 strikeouts in just 91 2/3 innings pitched. The 6’6” left-hander most recently struck out nine while allowing a just one run on one hit across five innings for Worcester. That start highlighted everything that has fans envisioning him as the eventual number two to Garrett Crochet.

Playing off that, if Crochet is the War Pig, then Tolle is a Wild Boar. Boars have been linked as symbols of darkness, death and winter in Greek myths, and in Egyptian mythology they were linked to the month of October. Tolle will be the pitcher to put the Red Sox as a favorite coming out of the American League as he brings a feeling of darkness and death to other teams’ chances while helping to lead the Sox into October.

Yes, it might be a bit of an exaggeration to say Tolle is that good. He’s yet to throw a pitch in the majors. But, his numbers point to just how good he is. In Triple-A alone, he managed not just a 27.6% strikeout rate, but he also limited walks to just 3.4%, making hitters swing at his pitches if they wanted to get on base. Demonstrated by a 31.1% whiff rate, hitters weren’t so lucky when it came to making contact. And those who did often didn't do so with any authority.. The average exit velocity against Tolle was just 83.1 mph, which went with a hard-hit rate of just 25%. Tolle manages to avoid allowing the big hit, and thanks in part to a fastball that has grown to average 95.5 mph with Worcester, he’s been able to blow hitters away when he needs to,

Tolle is genuinely a rare occurrence, as he has changed his pitch selection across the season and has still dominated despite the tweaks to his arsenal. What started as a heavy fastball-slider/sweeper combination in Greenville has now transformed more into a five-pitch selection. Tolle still relies heavily on his four-seam fastball, tossing it 49.5% of the time in Worcester, but his secondary usage has changed. His cutter is now his second-most used pitch, being thrown at 18.9% of the time, followed up by his slider at 15.5%. Finally, his changeup and curveball round out his repertoire, as they’re thrown 8.7% and 7.3% of the time. His fastball is the best of his pitches—there’s no argument there, as he managed to get the velocity up from 91 mph in college to now topping out at just under 99 mph. It’s the pitch that made him into such an exciting prospect in the first place.

His secondaries are nothing to look down on, however. While they still have some polishing that needs to be done, Tolle has shown an ability to use his cutter and slider effectively. Both pitches can sometimes look similar to each other, but Tolle’s cutter is what may help his fastball the most. Averaging around 90 mph in Worcester, the cutter has been used in an attempt to generate weak contact or to steal strikes as a backdoor offering against right-handers. In his latest start, all except for one cutter were either on the outer-third of the strike zone for a left-handed hitters or up and in, hoping to front door it up near the hands and jam the batter. The slider, on the other hand, has been in development for Tolle this season, as it has sometimes taken the shape of a sweeper and sometimes of a cutter depending on how its been thrown. However, one thing is certain: If he can settle on one version of it, it possesses tremendous potential as a strikeout pitch, generating an incredible 33.3% whiff rate in Worcester along with an expected batting average of just .063.

The changeup and curveball are works in progress, however, as shown by their low usage. Despite that, they were mostly used in his latest start to try and expand the strike zone while attempting to offset the batters' timing. He may not throw many in Boston at this point in time and instead may just rely on his three main pitches, but these offerings will have a profound impact on Tolle's trajectory. Anticipate seeing him work hard on both pitches over the offseason.

For now, don’t expect Tolle to go deep into games. He was already on an innings restriction in the minors, and that should be expected to continue in the major leagues. Tolle has already thrown more innings this season than anything prior in college, and the team has no interest in overtaxing his arm. Don’t be surprised if he’s limited to around five innings or 70 pitches much like he has been with Worcester so far. Though, there could be an argument made that the Red Sox could ramp him down into a bullpen role for the postseason by lowering his pitch count in each outing. Regardless, expect him to make the most of the pitches he is allowed to throw.

Either way, Tolle will go out there and give it his all as he decimates the competition. The burly southpaw will do everything in his power to continue the amazing season he’s had so far, and he’ll do it while trying to help the Red Sox reach the postseason. With his promotion to the big league club, the Red Sox continue to reap the benefits of their prodigious farm system, and now Tolle will join the likes of Roman Anthony and Jhostynxon Garcia in Boston's push for the playoffs.

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[moonslav59]

In the past, the Sox might have kept 2-3 of these prospects on the farm until 2026, so I do think this is a major change.

I do think being in the playoff hunt is a big reason for the Tolle call-up, but I also think it goes beyond that. Brez & Co. are breaking the molds.

Extensions given to several prospects and young players, recently (First Bello & Rafaela, and now Anthony & Campbell.

A mega prospects for ace deal with Crochet can be compared to the Sale trade, but that was many years ago. His near immediate extension further "broke the mold."

Spending large AAVs on Bregman & Buehler and to a lesser extent Chapman & Sandoval blew away the Kluber, Richards & Wacha type signings. Buehler's AAV was the highest since the Sale extension and the Price FA signing.

Savvy deals like for Narvaez, Slaten, Weissert and other helpful pieces.

Maybe I shoulda put this on the Brez thread, but bringing up Tolle and adding him to the 40 long before he was going to be Rule 5 is something new. We have added some, recently, but not by this many years to Rule 5 eligibility, that I know of.

[Sawxfan]

I think we are going to have to be patient with Tolle, it wouldn't  surprise me if he gets knocked around in his first few starts. His fastball obviously dominates at the AAA level, but major league hitters will feast on 98mph if it isn't located. Considering Tolle will most likely be involved in an offseason push for Joe Ryan, I just hope he doesn't crater his trade value.

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, Sawxfan said:

I think we are going to have to be patient with Tolle, it wouldn't  surprise me if he gets knocked around in his first few starts. His fastball obviously dominates at the AAA level, but major league hitters will feast on 98mph if it isn't located. Considering Tolle will most likely be involved in an offseason push for Joe Ryan, I just hope he doesn't crater his trade value.

I doubt we trade Tolle as part of the Ryan trade.

[Nick John]

34 minutes ago, Sawxfan said:

I think we are going to have to be patient with Tolle, it wouldn't  surprise me if he gets knocked around in his first few starts. His fastball obviously dominates at the AAA level, but major league hitters will feast on 98mph if it isn't located. Considering Tolle will most likely be involved in an offseason push for Joe Ryan, I just hope he doesn't crater his trade value.

I highly doubt they trade Tolle this offseason. They think very highly of him and even at the deadline he was not on the table at first for Ryan. If they trade for Ryan this offseason, it'll be similar to how the White Sox asked for Anthony and Mayer at the deadline for Crochet but settled for Montgomery, Teel, Meidroth and Gonzalez instead. No way will Tolle be moved for 2 years of Ryan unless they get something else back too.

[mvp 78]

37 minutes ago, Sawxfan said:

I think we are going to have to be patient with Tolle, it wouldn't  surprise me if he gets knocked around in his first few starts. His fastball obviously dominates at the AAA level, but major league hitters will feast on 98mph if it isn't located. Considering Tolle will most likely be involved in an offseason push for Joe Ryan, I just hope he doesn't crater his trade value.

His fastball comes with a lot of movement. Even if he misses location, he should be ok with that pitch. It's his only plus plus pitch right now. He's not throwing a straight Joe Kelly FB. 

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, Nick John said:

I highly doubt they trade Tolle this offseason. They think very highly of him and even at the deadline he was not on the table at first for Ryan. If they trade for Ryan this offseason, it'll be similar to how the White Sox asked for Anthony and Mayer at the deadline for Crochet but settled for Montgomery, Teel, Meidroth and Gonzalez instead. No way will Tolle be moved for 2 years of Ryan unless they get something else back too.

Ryan has 3 arbs, left, and that is why I want him, but still no Tolle for him. I'd like Campbell, Clarke and Sandlin, but they will want Abreu and maybe Valera or Witherspoon.

[Nick John]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

His fastball comes with a lot of movement. Even if he misses location, he should be ok with that pitch. It's his only plus plus pitch right now. He's not throwing a straight Joe Kelly FB. 

If his cutter continues to be like how it was last week, it'll play in the majors. It'll all come down to how his secondaries play out really. Worst case for the rest of the 2025 season is he comes out of the bullpen throwing bullets. 

[Nick John]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Ryan has 3 arbs, left, and that is why I want him, but still no Tolle for him. I'd like Campbell, Clarke and Sandlin, but they will want Abreu and maybe Valera or Witherspoon.

He has two left. This was his first season for arbitration eligibility but it was avoided. Ryan would become a free agent after the 2027 season and entering his age-32 season for 2028. I love Ryan but I wouldn't give up a huge talent package like Campbell, Clarke and Sandlin for just Ryan.  

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Nick John said:

If his cutter continues to be like how it was last week, it'll play in the majors. It'll all come down to how his secondaries play out really. Worst case for the rest of the 2025 season is he comes out of the bullpen throwing bullets. 

I just wouldn't count on his stuff looking like that this time out, because it hasn't always looked like that. Maybe he unlocked something with his secondaries? We just don't know. We also don't really know if there's an innings limit he'll bump into and what the ceiling is there. 

If he went to the pen and focused on using his FB over the last few weeks, he'd still be nasty (as long as the transition to the pen isn't an issue). 

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, Sawxfan said:

I think we are going to have to be patient with Tolle, it wouldn't  surprise me if he gets knocked around in his first few starts. His fastball obviously dominates at the AAA level, but major league hitters will feast on 98mph if it isn't located. Considering Tolle will most likely be involved in an offseason push for Joe Ryan, I just hope he doesn't crater his trade value.

I disagree but think you have provided an excellent warning.  MLB is a huge step.  

The Pirates team OPS is the lowest in MLB--so are their total runs scored.  My guess is that Breslow and Cora know all that.  

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, Nick John said:

He has two left. This was his first season for arbitration eligibility but it was avoided. Ryan would become a free agent after the 2027 season and entering his age-32 season for 2028. I love Ryan but I wouldn't give up a huge talent package like Campbell, Clarke and Sandlin for just Ryan.  

Cots shows Joe Ryan with Arb 3 in 2028...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QXhMYkMxJE1VJvZiNMS1X7OHPFNaIVUjd-m1ZBCzHL4/edit?gid=1520401900#gid=1520401900

But a few other sources do say 2 years.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Cots shows Joe Ryan with Arb 3 in 2028...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QXhMYkMxJE1VJvZiNMS1X7OHPFNaIVUjd-m1ZBCzHL4/edit?gid=1520401900#gid=1520401900

FanGraphs has him as a FA at the conclusion of the '27 season. Here's Spotrac: 

[Maxbialystock]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I just wouldn't count on his stuff looking like that this time out, because it hasn't always looked like that. Maybe he unlocked something with his secondaries? We just don't know. We also don't really know if there's an innings limit he'll bump into and what the ceiling is there. 

If he went to the pen and focused on using his FB over the last few weeks, he'd still be nasty (as long as the transition to the pen isn't an issue). 

Agree in principle.  

However, his first start is against the Pirates who are dead last in MLB in runs scored and team OPS.  They are also 20-46 in the road.   I expect him to be limited to around 70 pitches which should be about twice through the Pirates batting order.  The Pirates team OPS vs lefties is lower than against righties. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Maxbialystock said:

Agree in principle.  

However, his first start is against the Pirates who are dead last in MLB in runs scored and team OPS.  They are also 20-46 in the road.   I expect him to be limited to around 70 pitches which should be about twice through the Pirates batting order.  The Pirates team OPS vs lefties is lower than against righties. 

I'm not saying he won't be good, I'm just saying that there's a chance it's not an ace level performance. He could also come out and blow the doors off the Buccos. 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I doubt we trade Tolle as part of the Ryan trade.

Agree. That would make no sense.

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Agree. That would make no sense.

MIN can demand all they want, but I doubt many teams can top our Anthony and Tolleless offer.

I'm thinking:

Campbell, Clarke, Sandlin & Mullins is not enough. Maybe Campbell, Clarke, Early & Romero/Sandlin.

This should get it done: Abreu, Clarke or Early and Sandlin or Mullins/Romero. We could then trade Campbell & Mullins for Keller & cash. 

Bring Bregman & Chapman back. Let Buehler, Gio and Wilson walk, and sign Alonso.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

FanGraphs has him as a FA at the conclusion of the '27 season. Here's Spotrac: 

 

Cots is losing credibility.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Cots is losing credibility.

It's been bad for a while now. 

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's been bad for a while now. 

They used to be the number one source. It's so bad, now, they should just give up and shut down, or do a major revamp.

[Hugh2]

I wouldn’t trade Tolle for Ryan straight up

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Tolle may not have six pitches like Skenes, but his arm extension and release point make it hard for hitters to even see his fastball before it's halfway to the plate.

Tolle's explosive potential hasn't been seen by a Red Sox pitching prospect for decades and maybe more.

Scribes are calling him the most exciting homegrown lefty since Lester, who wasn't a star until 2008, his third (and first full) season because of obvious health issues.

As far as any homegrown pitchers, righty Clay Buchholz threw a no-hitter the month he got called up at the end of '07. But he then he struggled for two more years before finally figuring it out. 

The best homegrown Boston pitcher since Clemens in the past four decades was easily Jonathan Papelbon. Fans and media seem to forget how dominant Pap was when he agreed to become closer in his first full season in '06 when he earned 5 WAR at age 25. According to fangraphs, at the time it was the 5th best reliever season ever.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

40 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Tolle may not have six pitches like Skenes, but his arm extension and release point make it hard for hitters to even see his fastball before it's halfway to the plate.

Tolle's explosive potential hasn't been seen by a Red Sox pitching prospect for decades and maybe more.

Scribes are calling him the most exciting homegrown lefty since Lester, who wasn't a star until 2008, his third (and first full) season because of obvious health issues.

As far as any homegrown pitchers, righty Clay Buchholz threw a no-hitter the month he got called up at the end of '07. But he then he struggled for two more years before finally figuring it out. 

The best homegrown Boston pitcher since Clemens in the past four decades was easily Jonathan Papelbon. Fans and media seem to forget how dominant Pap was when he agreed to become closer in his first full season in '06 when he earned 5 WAR at age 25. According to fangraphs, at the time it was the 5th best reliever season ever.

That's what I noticed as well.  I read the post that said he had good movement on his fastball and that was not my take.  So I just watched 3-4 pitches and no there was not great movement.  But he had really good velocity and excellent location, and as you said his extension and release point makes the ball jump on the hitter.  

So excited about what I saw last night.