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News broke early Thursday night that their top pitching prospect, Payton Tolle, would be making his major league debut Friday night against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The move, Boston’s fifth promotion of a Top 100 prospect in their system this season, shows the organization's commitment to this team.
Tolle, a former second round pick in 2024, jumped up prospect ranks throughout the season thanks to his brilliant work on the mound. In 20 games across three minor league levels -- High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A -- Tolle dominated with 133 strikeouts in just 91 2/3 innings pitched. The 6’6” left-hander most recently struck out nine while allowing a just one run on one hit across five innings for Worcester. That start highlighted everything that has fans envisioning him as the eventual number two to Garrett Crochet.
Playing off that, if Crochet is the War Pig, then Tolle is a Wild Boar. Boars have been linked as symbols of darkness, death and winter in Greek myths, and in Egyptian mythology they were linked to the month of October. Tolle will be the pitcher to put the Red Sox as a favorite coming out of the American League as he brings a feeling of darkness and death to other teams’ chances while helping to lead the Sox into October.
Yes, it might be a bit of an exaggeration to say Tolle is that good. He’s yet to throw a pitch in the majors. But, his numbers point to just how good he is. In Triple-A alone, he managed not just a 27.6% strikeout rate, but he also limited walks to just 3.4%, making hitters swing at his pitches if they wanted to get on base. Demonstrated by a 31.1% whiff rate, hitters weren’t so lucky when it came to making contact. And those who did often didn't do so with any authority.. The average exit velocity against Tolle was just 83.1 mph, which went with a hard-hit rate of just 25%. Tolle manages to avoid allowing the big hit, and thanks in part to a fastball that has grown to average 95.5 mph with Worcester, he’s been able to blow hitters away when he needs to,
Tolle is genuinely a rare occurrence, as he has changed his pitch selection across the season and has still dominated despite the tweaks to his arsenal. What started as a heavy fastball-slider/sweeper combination in Greenville has now transformed more into a five-pitch selection. Tolle still relies heavily on his four-seam fastball, tossing it 49.5% of the time in Worcester, but his secondary usage has changed. His cutter is now his second-most used pitch, being thrown at 18.9% of the time, followed up by his slider at 15.5%. Finally, his changeup and curveball round out his repertoire, as they’re thrown 8.7% and 7.3% of the time. His fastball is the best of his pitches—there’s no argument there, as he managed to get the velocity up from 91 mph in college to now topping out at just under 99 mph. It’s the pitch that made him into such an exciting prospect in the first place.
His secondaries are nothing to look down on, however. While they still have some polishing that needs to be done, Tolle has shown an ability to use his cutter and slider effectively. Both pitches can sometimes look similar to each other, but Tolle’s cutter is what may help his fastball the most. Averaging around 90 mph in Worcester, the cutter has been used in an attempt to generate weak contact or to steal strikes as a backdoor offering against right-handers. In his latest start, all except for one cutter were either on the outer-third of the strike zone for a left-handed hitters or up and in, hoping to front door it up near the hands and jam the batter. The slider, on the other hand, has been in development for Tolle this season, as it has sometimes taken the shape of a sweeper and sometimes of a cutter depending on how its been thrown. However, one thing is certain: If he can settle on one version of it, it possesses tremendous potential as a strikeout pitch, generating an incredible 33.3% whiff rate in Worcester along with an expected batting average of just .063.
The changeup and curveball are works in progress, however, as shown by their low usage. Despite that, they were mostly used in his latest start to try and expand the strike zone while attempting to offset the batters' timing. He may not throw many in Boston at this point in time and instead may just rely on his three main pitches, but these offerings will have a profound impact on Tolle's trajectory. Anticipate seeing him work hard on both pitches over the offseason.
For now, don’t expect Tolle to go deep into games. He was already on an innings restriction in the minors, and that should be expected to continue in the major leagues. Tolle has already thrown more innings this season than anything prior in college, and the team has no interest in overtaxing his arm. Don’t be surprised if he’s limited to around five innings or 70 pitches much like he has been with Worcester so far. Though, there could be an argument made that the Red Sox could ramp him down into a bullpen role for the postseason by lowering his pitch count in each outing. Regardless, expect him to make the most of the pitches he is allowed to throw.
Either way, Tolle will go out there and give it his all as he decimates the competition. The burly southpaw will do everything in his power to continue the amazing season he’s had so far, and he’ll do it while trying to help the Red Sox reach the postseason. With his promotion to the big league club, the Red Sox continue to reap the benefits of their prodigious farm system, and now Tolle will join the likes of Roman Anthony and Jhostynxon Garcia in Boston's push for the playoffs.
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