The 2026 Red Sox Foundation & One Possible Plan

[Bellhorn04]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Abreu and Campbell are affordable. The Lux Tax number does not matter, and they can trade both, when their salaries increase. For KC, that might not be until 2030 or 2031. Abreu is pre-arb.

KC: 26:$2M, 27:$3M, 28:$4M, 29:$6M, 30:$9M, 31:$13M, 32:$16M, 33:$19M club option ($4M buyout), 34:$21M club option (no buyout)

With Campbell it's still a 50 million-ish financial commitment, which is not small change for a franchise like the Twins.   It's easy to say you can trade them later but that might not be so easy if they get injured or just don't perform.  Risk is risk.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

With Campbell it's still a 50 million-ish financial commitment, which is not small change for a franchise like the Twins.   It's easy to say you can trade them later but that might not be so easy if they get injured or just don't perform.  Risk is risk.

There is a risk, but the Twins are not a bottom spender.

It's true, if KC struggles, those last few years will be a big burden on them, but Ryan is due to make more than KC over the next 3 years, combined- close to what KC and Abreu make, combined in their years of control. They could also flip Abreu or KC before an injury.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

There is a risk, but the Twins are not a bottom spender.

It's true, if KC struggles, those last few years will be a big burden on them, but Ryan is due to make more than KC over the next 3 years, combined- close to what KC and Abreu make, combined in their years of control. They could also flip Abreu or KC before an injury.

With 400M in debt to pay off, the Twinkies could end up being at the bottom fairly soon. The Pohlads were willing to have the Twins contracted back in 2001 because they didn't believe they could make money off the market they were in. 

[Bellhorn04]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

There is a risk, but the Twins are not a bottom spender.

It's true, if KC struggles, those last few years will be a big burden on them, but Ryan is due to make more than KC over the next 3 years, combined- close to what KC and Abreu make, combined in their years of control. They could also flip Abreu or KC before an injury.

Campbell is a pretty risky asset right now.  There might be some teams interested in him, but only if their evaluators are absolutely in love with him.  Not many would be willing to bet $50 million on a guy who bombed out of MLB fairly quickly and still reportedly has a lot of issues on both offense and defense.

[mvp 78]

39 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Campbell is a pretty risky asset right now.  There might be some teams interested in him, but only if their evaluators are absolutely in love with him.  Not many would be willing to bet $50 million on a guy who bombed out of MLB fairly quickly and still reportedly has a lot of issues on both offense and defense.

His swing is still ugly as hell and he can't play a lick of defense.

AAA stats

'24 EV 88.2, 46.2 Hard Hit %, 21.2 k%, 15.3 bb%

'25 EV 84.0, 28.1 Hard Hit %, 26.9 k%, 12.6 bb%

He still has some value, but a lot of his game is trending in the wrong direction this season. 

[mvp 78]

The Sox will be in the final game of the second series of the year by the time April comes around.

Is Cincinnati a nice place to be outdoors the middle of March? 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Campbell is a pretty risky asset right now.  There might be some teams interested in him, but only if their evaluators are absolutely in love with him.  Not many would be willing to bet $50 million on a guy who bombed out of MLB fairly quickly and still reportedly has a lot of issues on both offense and defense.

Again, I do not think many teams put a whole lot of stick into a rushed prospect's first 2 months production in MLB. Just my opinion.

His poor defense and lack of known position may drive his stock lower than his piss poor 6-8 weeks in the bigs.

 

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Again, I do not think many teams put a whole lot of stick into a rushed prospect's first 2 months production in MLB. Just my opinion.

His poor defense and lack of known position may drive his stock lower than his piss poor 6-8 weeks in the bigs.

 

I think it has more to do with his overall unexciting performance in '25 that includes his AAA season as well. For example, Jackson Holliday went back to AAA last season, but put up numbers and had good underlying metrics. That probably didn't affect his value at all. What Campbell is doing this season definitely affects his value negatively (mediocre performance, bad metrics). 

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think it has more to do with his overall unexciting performance in '25 that includes his AAA season as well. For example, Jackson Holliday went back to AAA last season, but put up numbers and had good underlying metrics. That probably didn't affect his value at all. What Campbell is doing this season definitely affects his value negatively (mediocre performance, bad metrics). 

He certainly has not restored any value lost in AAA, not has he been identified at a clear position where he can be okay.

He does have an .833 OPS with WOO, so it's not horrible.

[notin]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

With Campbell it's still a 50 million-ish financial commitment, which is not small change for a franchise like the Twins.   It's easy to say you can trade them later but that might not be so easy if they get injured or just don't perform.  Risk is risk.

And every pitch Joe Ryan throws for them is a risk that he will tear a ligament and unceremoniously end his time in Minnesota….

[notin]

57 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Sox will be in the final game of the second series of the year by the time April comes around.

Is Cincinnati a nice place to be outdoors the middle of March? 

It’s never nice to be in Cincinnati, be it indoors, outdoors, March, August, summer, winter, etc…

[notin]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The broke Twins also don't want to be locked into the MLB salaries of Duran and Campbell. 

It would reduce the amount available to pay Byron Buxton to sit on the Injured List.

When did tire Twins go broke?  They sold off everything to reduce overhead and make the team more salable, but that’s not the same as being broke…

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He certainly has not restored any value lost in AAA, not has he been identified at a clear position where he can be okay.

He does have an .833 OPS with WOO, so it's not horrible.

Not horrible, but not great when tied to a 50M contract. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

It would reduce the amount available to pay Byron Buxton to sit on the Injured List.

When did tire Twins go broke?  They sold off everything to reduce overhead and make the team more salable, but that’s not the same as being broke…

The Pohlads decided they didn't want to sell after all and are keeping the team even though they had a fire sale to make the team easier to sell. 🫠

The noted debt was incurred beginning with Target Field's construction through present with bad real estate investments. 

[notin]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Pohlads decided they didn't want to sell after all and are keeping the team even though they had a fire sale to make the team easier to sell. 🫠

The noted debt was incurred beginning with Target Field's construction through present with bad real estate investments. 

The Philadelphia have not been known for doing anything in the interest of the Twins, their fans, or MLB

[Hitch]

4 hours ago, notin said:

I am not sure if it’s even selling low.  His contract still makes him valuable.  A small market team especially would love to have him for 7 years at his price tag.

He’s only spent a few weeks in AAA this year.  I wouldn’t put much stock in his performance either way just yet.

I think he’s proven more than the doubts he has created offensively.  Hes not a bench player and not a minor leaguer.  He has never had a position, which is an issue.  It would be nice if he could solve 2b, but he’s more likely to go to 1b…

Fans overrate their own players and prospects. It's natural. 

I don't see how he's proven more than the doubts he has created offensively? He's defensively awful. Not bad. Awful. And he's shown little to show that his offence for the first month is the real him. He hasn't been able to pull the ball for large chunks of the year, though it's got closer to what you'd want.

Unless an evaluator just loves something everyone else is missing, he's not got great value right now. 

I'm still hopeful he will be the player we'd hoped but it won't be at 2nd base that's for damn sure. I'm 45 with a dodgy back and bad eyes, and I play better D there than he does. 

I have always wondered if he could be a decent left fielder. Not sure what his arm is like though. But he needs to hit for more power and get his hard hit/barrel rates up.

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Not horrible, but not great when tied to a 50M contract. 

Not bad enough to significantly drop his value, IMO.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Fans overrate their own players and prospects. It's natural. 

 

I've been saying Castro is overrated for years!

🤣

[moonslav59]

If MIN is looking to dump salary, we can add another SP'er with an injury problem to the trade:

Pablo Lopez

He's owed $21.75M x 2, but the tax hit is jut $18.4M x 2.

Taking him in the package should allow MN to pay for Duran and Campbell. (Hell, they could take Yoshida and save $3M a year by including Lopez.)

Duran, Campbell, Early & Sandlin  for Ryan, Lopez & Clemens.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

If MIN is looking to dump salary, we can add another SP'er with an injury problem to the trade:

Pablo Lopez

He's owed $21.75M x 2, but the tax hit is jut $18.4M x 2.

Taking him in the package should allow MN to pay for Duran and Campbell. (Hell, they could take Yoshida and save $3M a year by including Lopez.)

Duran, Campbell, Early & Sandlin  for Ryan, Lopez & Clemens.

make it Abreu instead of Duran and you got a deal!

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

make it Abreu instead of Duran and you got a deal!

I think MIN would prefer Abreu and his pre-arb status, too. I'm about 50-50.

Since Duran has sucked vs LHPs, this year, I no longer see Abreu being a platoon bat as any worse than Duran batting worse than Abreu vs lefties.

Duran is a better baserunner, but Abreu has more power.

Abreu is very good at RF defense, something very valuable in Fenway and other parks. Duran seems to have peaked on D in 2024 and should probably play LF with CF as his back-up slot.

Duran costs more in the next 3 arbs, as Abreu has one more pre-arb season. Duran adds an excitement not many other players can provide.

I'd give the edge to Abreu, and so would MIN, IMO.

[notin]

 

9 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

With 400M in debt to pay off, the Twinkies could end up being at the bottom fairly soon. The Pohlads were willing to have the Twins contracted back in 2001 because they didn't believe they could make money off the market they were in. 

And yet the Twins were drawing 3 million fans as long ago as 1988...

[Hugh2]

After tonight, Giolito should get 5 more starts and if he averages 4 1/3 an inning per start he will trigger the mutual option.

its highly, highly likely he opts out.  
 

I think the question we should be asking now is if we should QO him.  If so we have two QOs this offseason, Giolito and Chapman

[moonslav59]

56 minutes ago, notin said:

 

And yet the Twins were drawing 3 million fans as long ago as 1988...

And have a nice stadium, now!

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

After tonight, Giolito should get 5 more starts and if he averages 4 1/3 an inning per start he will trigger the mutual option.

its highly, highly likely he opts out.  
 

I think the question we should be asking now is if we should QO him.  If so we have two QOs this offseason, Giolito and Chapman

I didn't consider Chapman as a QO candidate, but I suppose he could be. I think he'd take a $15M contract with a second year option at $12M and a $3M buy out.

Essentially $18M/1 or $30M/2.

[moonslav59]

I hope Gio comes back.

We need Bregman & CHapman back.

[Duran Is The Man]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think MIN would prefer Abreu and his pre-arb status, too. I'm about 50-50.

Since Duran has sucked vs LHPs, this year, I no longer see Abreu being a platoon bat as any worse than Duran batting worse than Abreu vs lefties.

Duran is a better baserunner, but Abreu has more power.

Abreu is very good at RF defense, something very valuable in Fenway and other parks. Duran seems to have peaked on D in 2024 and should probably play LF with CF as his back-up slot.

Duran costs more in the next 3 arbs, as Abreu has one more pre-arb season. Duran adds an excitement not many other players can provide.

I'd give the edge to Abreu, and so would MIN, IMO.

on second thought, i want Luke Keaschall instead of Clemens.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

The negative posts regarding Campbell and his contract read similarly to the posts that negatively regarded Bello and his contract.

Hopefully, patience with Campbell will pay off like patience with Bello has.

[Hitch]

4 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

After tonight, Giolito should get 5 more starts and if he averages 4 1/3 an inning per start he will trigger the mutual option.

its highly, highly likely he opts out.  
 

I think the question we should be asking now is if we should QO him.  If so we have two QOs this offseason, Giolito and Chapman

Definitely QO Gio. No-brainer. Though I suspect they may work out a deal with him. He seems to love it here and feels comfortable.

Chapman is a little trickier. He's not getting 22m in FA I don't think, but you maybe just take the option to make sure he's yours for 1 more year. If you believe he can get anywhere close to this again it's another no-brainer.

No such thing as a bad 1 year deal and all that.

[Hugh2]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I didn't consider Chapman as a QO candidate, but I suppose he could be. I think he'd take a $15M contract with a second year option at $12M and a $3M buy out.

Essentially $18M/1 or $30M/2.

considering his age and the fact that he could return negative to little return in a multi year deal if he falls off a cliff, I would have zero problem paying more for a 1 year deal.  

I would offer a multi year contract, but I would have no problem with the QO.