Marlins (Junk) vs Red Sox (Crochet): 8/17/25, 1:35pm

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Maxbialystock said:

Get off Rafaela.  I mean it.  His WAR is 3.8 and Mookie Betts is 2.7 and we are 3/4 into this season.  

Career norms do not mean that a given player will have exactly that OPS, WAR, DWAR, or whatever every season.  What's normal is going above or below those norms.  Jacoby Ellsbury hit 32 dingers in 2011 and less than 10 in every other season (he played 11) except one, 2014, when he hit 16.  

Bregman's OPS of .933 is well above his "norm" of .854.  What's abnormal also is that missed a bunch of games which he only did--same injury--in one other season of the 9 he's played.  

 

What does Mookie have to do with Rafaela right now? 

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

You mean the Marlins. Baltimore is today. Our pen I think will be OK, especially if Slaten comes back strong. IMO our weakness will be run scoring ability. Aside from Bregman and Anthony I don't see any consistently good offensive players in our lineup.

Duran is T21 in MLB in total bases with 221.

Story had an 870 OPS in July and is at 841 in August.

Maybe you need to get your eyes checked.

 

[FredLynn]

1 minute ago, Maxbialystock said:

Get off Rafaela.  I mean it.  His WAR is 3.8 and Mookie Betts is 2.7 and we are 3/4 into this season.  

Career norms do not mean that a given player will have exactly that OPS, WAR, DWAR, or whatever every season.  What's normal is going above or below those norms.  Jacoby Ellsbury hit 32 dingers in 2011 and less than 10 in every other season (he played 11) except one, 2014, when he hit 16.  

Bregman's OPS of .933 is well above his "norm" of .854.  What's abnormal also is that missed a bunch of games which he only did--same injury--in one other season of the 9 he's played.  

 

You mean it. I don't much care Max. Rafaela is JBJ reincarnated. He had his moment in the sun. Now his weakness at the plate has resurfaced and I don't expect it to change. I hope it does; I am not counting on it. I do not expect guys like Romy and Toro to improve significantly. Why? Because they have not done so in the past. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Duran is T21 in MLB in total bases with 221.

He'd be higher if that dang Cora wasn't moving him all over the place! 🤬

[FredLynn]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Duran is T21 in MLB in total bases with 221.

Duran has more potential to contribute than guys like Narvaez, Rafaela, Gonzalez, Wong etc. He is a net contributor, along with Bregman and Anthony. Unfortunately too many guys are not.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Duran has more potential to contribute than guys like Narvaez, Rafaela, Gonzalez, Wong etc. He is a net contributor, along with Bregman and Anthony. Unfortunately too many guys are not.

Again, the Sox are 4th in MLB in runs scored per game.  You seem to think the other teams are the '27 Yankees.

[FredLynn]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

Again, the Sox are 4th in MLB in runs scored per game.  You seem to think the other teams are the '27 Yankees.

When have I ever written that the other teams have no holes? I don't care about them. I care that the Red Sox become the best team possible. What I see right now is that many players are slumping and returning to career norms and that does not bode well for our ability to REMAIN fourth in runs scored. Maybe if Breslow had done his job and brought in Naylor or someone else who can help the offense (and a good #2 SP) our outlook would be better. Right now we are not a dominant team. We are fighting for a wild card and it won't be easy to even play ONE GAME in Oct.

[notin]

16 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

You mean it. I don't much care Max. Rafaela is JBJ reincarnated. He had his moment in the sun. Now his weakness at the plate has resurfaced and I don't expect it to change. I hope it does; I am not counting on it. I do not expect guys like Romy and Toro to improve significantly. Why? Because they have not done so in the past. 

Romy Gonzalez hasn’t improved significantly?

In 3 years of limited action with the White Sox, he had an OPS of .600.  In two years in Boston with far more PA, he has an OPS of .791.  I’d call a jump of 191 OPS points “significant improvement”…

[FredLynn]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

Romy Gonzalez hasn’t improved significantly?

In 3 years of limited action with the White Sox, he had an OPS of .600.  In two years in Boston with far more PA, he has an OPS of .791.  I’d call a jump of 191 OPS points “significant improvement”…

How’s he doing over the past month? I suspect that assuming current trends continue he’ll end up around .700.

A few player significantly improve, but most have declared who they are after a large sample size. Why do you expect him and others to outperform their career numbers?

[Maxbialystock]

4 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

You mean the Marlins. Baltimore is today. Our pen I think will be OK, especially if Slaten comes back strong. IMO our weakness will be run scoring ability. Aside from Bregman and Anthony I don't see any consistently good offensive players in our lineup.

My mistake.  Thanks for the correction.  I sure hope you're right about the bullpen.

Right now the Sox have exactly one consistent hitter, Bregman.  Everyone else, Anthony included, is up and down like a yo-yo.  Yesterday Anthony twice left 2 men on base with groundouts.  

That said, I think the Sox hitting and scoring have persevered because in every game a few of them are hitting.  Story with his so-so .725 OPS has 79 rbi's and a good shot at 100.  He is also 2d in runs scored and 2d in total bases.  

Plus you gotta like these other OPS's 3/4 into the season: Gonzalez .856, Anthony .832, Ref .827, Abreu .811, and Duran .791.  Including Bregman and Story, that's 7 pretty good bats.  Rafaela has nosedived in August, OPS .559, but he was terrific in June and July--.870 and .852.  And how do we know what Rafaela's norm is when last year was his first freaking season.  

 

 

 

[FredLynn]

29 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

My mistake.  Thanks for the correction.  I sure hope you're right about the bullpen.

Right now the Sox have exactly one consistent hitter, Bregman.  Everyone else, Anthony included, is up and down like a yo-yo.  Yesterday Anthony twice left 2 men on base with groundouts.  

That said, I think the Sox hitting and scoring have persevered because in every game a few of them are hitting.  Story with his so-so .725 OPS has 79 rbi's and a good shot at 100.  He is also 2d in runs scored and 2d in total bases.  

Plus you gotta like these other OPS's 3/4 into the season: Gonzalez .856, Anthony .832, Ref .827, Abreu .811, and Duran .791.  Including Bregman and Story, that's 7 pretty good bats.  Rafaela has nosedived in August, OPS .559, but he was terrific in June and July--.870 and .852.  And how do we know what Rafaela's norm is when last year was his first freaking season.  

 

 

 

I’d sure like those OPS numbers if they could be maintained. They’re nosediving. And Rafaela has a fundamental weakness that will be his downfall at the plate: no discipline.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

EVERYONE uses statistics to support their point in a rational debate. And EVERYONE uses the statistics that best do so. Why on earth would anyone expect that those guys should outperform their career norms? I hope for the best for Rafaela but in all honestly, as I have pointed out before here, his lack of plate discipline will likely be his downfall offensively. Been through guys like that on the team before and I don't want to do it again.

And yes, we are on a 88 win pace for the year. The future looks good, but like you, I am tired of the "just wait till next year" nonsense. Breslow could have done a better job at the TDL to make this a win now team.

Manny young players with just 1-2 seasons under their belt do improve on their career numbers, especially the ones who show they have improved from year 1 to 2 and from 2 to 3, like Rafaela has in K rate, BB rate and OPS (so far in year 3.)

I don't know if he'll improve, but I question why anyone would expect him not to improve and focus with pinpoint accuracy every time he slumps or falters, as if that is the norm, but when he's doing well, you explain how it will go back down, again. You do realize that every time it goes down, it's after going up, right? He's down and UP. The up parts should be just as predictable as the downs, right? We only hear about the one part, over and over.

We are all tired of mediocrity and "wait until next year," and it wasn't me who wanted us to dump at the deadline for "wait till next year."  I can see the reasoning for making the biggest deals in winter and not grossly overpaying at the TDL. I wish we'd done more, but I get it. Now that we decided to do just about nothing, our chances look pretty good to make the playoffs and not all that bad to win the AL, as no AL team looks dominant, right now. We have played well vs some of the best teams in MLB, even the NL ones.

There is reason to be at least cautiously optimistic. There is less reason to be morbidly pessimistic. This is not the 2022, 2023 or even the 2023 team.

 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

When have I ever written that the other teams have no holes? I don't care about them. I care that the Red Sox become the best team possible. What I see right now is that many players are slumping and returning to career norms and that does not bode well for our ability to REMAIN fourth in runs scored. Maybe if Breslow had done his job and brought in Naylor or someone else who can help the offense (and a good #2 SP) our outlook would be better. Right now we are not a dominant team. We are fighting for a wild card and it won't be easy to even play ONE GAME in Oct.

They were 17-7 in July averaging 5.54 runs per game.

9-6 in August averaging 5.4 runs per game.

I mean, what do you want?  We'd all love them to play .750 ball, but that's not realistic.

Some guys are slumping, yes, but obviously that's being offset by some guys who are hot.

That's just the way baseball is.  It's not football where the Patriots with Brady literally could play .750 ball.

At the MLB level, baseball is an erratic game by its nature.

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They were 17-7 in July averaging 5.54 runs per game.

9-6 in August averaging 5.4 runs per game.

I mean, what do you want?  We'd all love them to play .750 ball, but that's not realistic.

Some guys are slumping, yes, but obviously that's being offset by some guys who are hot.

That's just the way baseball is.  It's not football where the Patriots with Brady literally could play .750 ball.

At the MLB level, baseball is an erratic game by its nature.

Let’s hope they can keep winning even though a lot of their players are slumping and returning to their career norms. What I don’t get is why so many posters here think that guys like Gonzalez and Toro should suddenly exceed the production they have demonstrated in the past, all at once. Seems like “irrational exuberance” to me. 

[FredLynn]

Well they’re apparently finalizing a deal with Nathan Lowe. Good move! It’s worth a shot imo. 

[illinoisredsox]

28 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Well they’re apparently finalizing a deal with Nathan Lowe. Good move! It’s worth a shot imo. 

What deal?  They claimed him off waivers. They’re responsible for a little under 25% of his contract for this year.  No deal to be had at this point.

[FredLynn]

5 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

What deal?  They claimed him off waivers. They’re responsible for a little under 25% of his contract for this year.  No deal to be had at this point.

A deal to sign him is what I meant. I think I read the Nats are responsible for his salary for the rest of the year….could be wrong. Regardless, he’s worth a shot. He’s having probably the worst year of his career and the change of scenery could do him well. I doubt he’d be worse than Toro. 
From Boston. Com:

”Contract-wise, the Nationals are footing Lowe’s $10.3 million salary this year.”

He also is a GG winner 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

4 hours ago, FredLynn said:

You mean it. I don't much care Max. Rafaela is JBJ reincarnated. He had his moment in the sun. Now his weakness at the plate has resurfaced and I don't expect it to change. I hope it does; I am not counting on it. I do not expect guys like Romy and Toro to improve significantly. Why? Because they have not done so in the past. 

I don't expect your posts to improve significantly. Why? Because they have not done so in the past.

[illinoisredsox]

30 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

A deal to sign him is what I meant. I think I read the Nats are responsible for his salary for the rest of the year….could be wrong. Regardless, he’s worth a shot. He’s having probably the worst year of his career and the change of scenery could do him well. I doubt he’d be worse than Toro. 
From Boston. Com:

”Contract-wise, the Nationals are footing Lowe’s $10.3 million salary this year.”

He also is a GG winner 

Actually, neither of us is correct, nor is Boston.com.  Lowe was released by the Nats after clearing waivers; I thought they had claimed him off waivers.  The Sox technically signed him as a free agent.  By rule, the Sox are responsible for the prorated portion of the MLB minimum (at this point of the season, that would be about $175K) with the Nats paying the balance of about $10.1 million.

 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

2 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

Actually, neither of us is correct, nor is Boston.com.  Lowe was released by the Nats after clearing waivers; I thought they had claimed him off waivers.  The Sox technically signed him as a free agent.  By rule, the Sox are responsible for the prorated portion of the MLB minimum (at this point of the season, that would be about $175K) with the Nats paying the balance of about $10.1 million.

 

This makes acquiring Lowe an even much lesser financial risk than some of us thought earlier. Hopefully, Lowe expectations will result in high production.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Just now, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

This makes acquiring Lowe an even much lesser financial risk than some of us thought earlier. Hopefully, Lowe expectations will result in high production.

Pun definitely intended.

[moonslav59]

The Sox may end up over the tax line, so they would have paid a tax on the $2M or so, had the claimed him off waivers.

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I don't expect your posts to improve significantly. Why? Because they have not done so in the past.

Of course not! One cannot improve on perfection!

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The Sox may end up over the tax line, so they would have paid a tax on the $2M or so, had the claimed him off waivers.

They will end up over the first threshold. The goal this year was to stay under the second one. 

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They will end up over the first threshold. The goal this year was to stay under the second one. 

I hope next year's goal is to go into the second threshold area. I believe it when I see it.