Article: Despite Early Returns, the Red Sox Won the Quinn Priester Trade

[Nick John]

On April 7, the Red Sox made a trade that surprised some at the time, as they took advantage of their seeming surplus of starting pitching to acquire some interesting prospects. In exchange for Quinn Priester, the Red Sox received Yophery Rodriguez, a player to be named later, and the 33rd overall pick in the 2025 MLB draft from the Milwaukee Brewers.

It seemed like a haul for a pitcher who was in Triple-A and behind the likes of Richard Fitts and Hunter Dobbins on the depth chart. The Red Sox saw an opportunity to cash in big on a player they had acquired for very little, having shipped Nick Yorke to Pittsburgh the previous summer for Priester. In Worcester this season, he had only made one start, pitching just four innings where he allowed two runs on six hits, though he did manage to strike out six batters.

Unfortunately for the Red Sox, Priester has been rather dominant since joining the Brewers on April 7. Having pitched in 22 games, 17 of them starts, Priester has gone 11-2 with a 3.49 ERA across 118 2/3 innings and has been a major factor in the Brewers' stampede to the best record in baseball. The Red Sox, on the other hand, have dealt with season-ending injuries to three of their starters in Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Hunter Dobbins, on top of serious struggles from Walker Buehler and Richard Fitts. To some, it may seem like the Red Sox should have held on to Priester due to their issues with the rotation following the trade. However, the Red Sox may yet come out on top.

When you take a closer look at Priester's performance, it's clear the rookie is over-performing for the Brewers currently. Despite his 3.49 ERA, Priester is rocking a 4.21 FIP while managing to strand 78.3% of runners. Add to it that he’s not striking out many batters—just 95 in 118 2/3 innings—and walking nearly three batters per nine innings, it might just be a matter of time until things begin to come undone for the right-hander. Hitters are making good contact against him, as shown by his hard-hit rate (42.1%) and the average exit velocity off of him sitting just under 90 mph (89.7 mph).

Priester doesn’t generate enough whiffs or gets batters to chase enough either to help offset his 7.9% walk rate. And while batters are currently hitting just .239 against him, the underlying stats show he’s getting lucky there too, as he's working with an expected batting average of .251 along with an expected slugging percentage of .392. Eventually, hits will begin to fall in for opposing batters, and perhaps in August, things are starting to catch up to him.

Through his first two starts in August, Priester has looked more pedestrian as he’s allowed seven earned runs off of 12 hits in 11 1/3 innings pitched, resulting in a 5.56 ERA. The worst part of it may be that in his latest start against the Mets, Priester only generated three whiffs on 33 swings, good for a rate of 9%.

On the other hand, the Red Sox's end of the trade is only looking more promising. On May 5, right-hander John Holobetz was sent to the Red Sox as the player to be named later. Holobetz, a fifth-round pick in the 2024 draft, has spent his time in the Red Sox organization split between Greenville and Portland. where he’s looked rather good. In 14 games between the two levels, he’s tossed 75 2/3 innings while allowing 30 earned runs and striking out 80 hitters. Backed by a fastball that tops out at 96 mph, Holobetz has been able to use the pitch well thanks to its bat-missing ability along with his solid command for the pitch. His other pitches—a slider, curveball and changeup—are all works in progress, but they do flash plus potential at times. Even if he ends up in the bullpen as currently projected, Holobetz is an interesting pitcher to watch develop in the Red Sox pitching lab.

Of course, the main piece from the deal is Rodriguez. Milwaukee’s seventh-ranked prospect at the time of the trade, Rodriguez was immediately sent to High-A Greenville where the 19-year-old broke out. In April, he would go on to hit .257/.409/.414 between his time with Milwaukee’s High-A organization and the Drive. Defensively, he only committed one error during that span as well, showcasing a profile that best fits in left field. While the young outfielder did struggle in both May and June—hitting .155/.276/.262 and .205/.295/.282, respectively—he did rebound in July. In 19 games that month, Rodriguez looked more like the hitter he was in April, having responded to the change in how opposing teams pitched to him. In that span, he would go on to hit .356/.390/.562 with seven doubles, a triple, two home runs and 15 RBIs. Rodriguez is still young, as he won’t turn 20 until early December and will have time to develop against High-A pitching (he’s roughly three years younger than the average player there). He was a highly-ranked prospect with Milwaukee and being ranked 21st with the Red Sox is less a slight towards his talent and more a sign of how deep the Red Sox's farm system is.

Beyond that, many will argue that the true winner of this trade will be determined by how Marcus Phillips turns out. Drafted with that 33rd overall pick, Phillips is an interesting young arm thanks in part to a fastball that touches 100 mph. Paired with a deceptive release point and a slider that can reach 90 mph, Phillips could turn into either a starter or reliever depending on how his command and control play out. Should Phillips pan out for the Red Sox, there is no debate that they won this trade, even if Holobetz and Rodriguez fail to reach their potential.

Regardless of how Priester has looked at times this season, the Red Sox were smart to trade a player who was near the bottom of their depth chart. It made sense from a roster management perspective, and the Red Sox would be wise to make that trade every time it was offered, especially considering that they acquired such a valuable draft pick. Smart teams keep their farm system stocked, and that's what the Red Sox did with this trade.

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[Duran Is The Man]

  i think Craig Breslow wrote this.

and you couldn't be more wrong.

[Bellhorn04]

If the Sox make the playoffs this trade looks fine.

[illinoisredsox]

10 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

  i think Craig Breslow wrote this.

and you couldn't be more wrong.

Yeah, the Brewers have gotten a great 4 months from Priester.  Would he have done that in Boston or is he more suited to a smaller market?  Will he keep it up for years to come?

The truth is we don’t know who “won” the trade and won’t for maybe 5 or 6 years.  Everyone involved is too young to evaluate.  

 

[Duran Is The Man]

33 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

Yeah, the Brewers have gotten a great 4 months from Priester.  Would he have done that in Boston or is he more suited to a smaller market?  Will he keep it up for years to come?

The truth is we don’t know who “won” the trade and won’t for maybe 5 or 6 years.  Everyone involved is too young to evaluate.  

 

 you can speculate in hypotheticals all you want, but we know who has won this trade as of right now....and that's the Brewers. no amount of spin will change that. 

[harmony]

What are the odds that Yophery Rodriguez, John Holobetz or Marcus Phillips ever plays an inning at the Major League level? What are the chances that any match the production of Quinn Priester's 2025 season?

SoxProspects currently ranks the trio 34th, 31st and 14th in a Boston farm system that has fallen out of the Top 10 at MLB Pipeline:

https://soxprospects.com/

https://www.mlb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-2025-midseason

The Milwaukee Brewers are unlikely to regret the trade .... ever.

[Shoeless Joe]

Frankly, you're wrong to draw any conclusion based on the facts you present, and if you'd seen Rodriguez this season ... 

At 19-20 he's been mercurial, enigmatic and just plain inconsistent. At times he looks lost at the plate, which shouldn't be surprising at this age but his swing decisions often seem impulsive. When he makes contact it's typically solid, just not frequently enough to say he's going to become more than a fourth or fifth outfielder -- if that. 

Moving Priester seems a bit unwise as the dust cleared, but given the Sox pitching depth in the pipeline and the chance to score another promising prospect or two it makes some sense.

Did they "win?" Well, I like the Brewers' chances to reach the World Series with Priester better than I do Boston's without him. 

[Bellhorn04]

53 minutes ago, harmony said:

What are the odds that Yophery Rodriguez, John Holobetz or Marcus Phillips ever play an inning at the Major League level? What are the chances that any match the production of Quinn Priester's 2025 season?

SoxProspects currently ranks the trio 34th, 31st and 14th in a Boston farm system that has fallen out of the Top 10 at MLB Pipeline:

https://soxprospects.com/

https://www.mlb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-2025-midseason

The Milwaukee Brewers are unlikely to regret the trade .... ever.

On the other hand, FanGraphs is showing Priester with a WAR of only 0.9.  So he appears to have benefited from the ballpark and other random factors.

A 0.9 WAR extrapolated to a full season is below average.

Which makes it a pretty minor loss.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

Priester is a quality MLB SP and Rodriguez is a 19-year-old prospect that has not dominated at ROK, A ball or Hi-A ball.  Great young players don't put up numbers like Rodriguez, they put up numbers like Anthony and Campbell did.  

With as many games as Priester has pitched, he's proven himself as a middle of the rotation starter on a team loaded with pitching.  In Boston, he would be the #2 SP but instead we have a weak outfield prospect that won't surpass Anthony, Duran and Rafaela for many, many years if ever.

Breslow has gathered talent for Boston in Crochet and Bregman and he's lost Sale and Priester.  The Devers deal was by far the most effective deal earning back $260 Million of wasted future payroll and if any of the other parts provide value it's icing on the cake.  

I like the job Breslow has done but Sale and Priester will remain two of his biggest mistakes but he's so superior to Bloom it's not funny.  It's like comparing Bonds as a player to Alex Cora as a player, they are not in the same stratosphere.

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

What are the odds that Yophery Rodriguez, John Holobetz or Marcus Phillips ever play an inning at the Major League level? What are the chances that any match the production of Quinn Priester's 2025 season?

 

I'd say pretty damn high.

One on one, no, but when you add all three's chances together, the chances are greater than 50%, IMO.

Let's say all have 1/3 chance to have one season at a 1.0-2.0fWAR, that's over 2/3 a chance one does it.

[harmony]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd say pretty damn high.

One on one, no, but when you add all three's chances together, the chances are greater than 50%, IMO.

Let's say all have 1/3 chance to have one season at a 1.0-2.0fWAR, that's over 2/3 a chance one does it.

What percentage of Red Sox prospects ranked 30 or below have ever played an MLB inning? What percentage of those ranked below the Top 10?

The numbers are low despite an occasional outlier.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, harmony said:

What percentage of Red Sox prospects ranked 30 or below have ever played an MLB inning? What percentage of those ranked below the Top 10?

The numbers are low despite an occasional outlier.

I have no idea of those numbers and don't think they are useful in projecting the chances these three have or making a significant MLB showing.

Phillips is #14

Holobetz is #31 and will likely be top 25-30, next rankings

YRod is #34 and has not been very impressive, but was considered the most promising part of the trade, when it was made.

Also, Priester's final 2025 numbers are not complete, yet. He can still go up or down.

Would I want Priester back for those three? Yes, mainly because we have a shot in 2025, and we could use a 4/5 SP'er, right now, and we needed one earlier, too. That does not change my opinion on the chances one of these three guys make a MLB impact, someday.

Holobetz has a decent .709 OPS Against and a 3.57 ERA in A+ and AA combined. The AA numbers are a small sample size but the 1.87 xERA and .557 OPSA look pretty damn good. I think he moves into our top 25 the next rankings.

Phillips is hard to project, but SPs.com says this:

High-ceiling right-hander with a wide range of outcomes. Has great size and athleticism and huge velocity. Questions about delivery and strike-throwing ability lead some to think he is best suited for a bullpen role, but has the build of a starter and will be developed there. Fastball and slider both have above-average potential and some think his changeup also has upside. Low-usage arm in college, so could have considerable untapped potential.

YRod is also hard to project, as he is just 19 and in his 3rd season of minor league ball- now w GRE w a .661 OPS. He has a non-flattering summary with SPs,com;

Potential solid high-minors contributor. Ceiling of a reserve outfielder. Lacks a carrying tool and is not overly projectable even though he is young for High-A. Needs to add strength and make more impact to have a chance against more advanced pitching. Approach metrics are solid, but lack of impact limits his ceiling. Could stand to improve defensively, and if he can stick in center, that would raise his profile, but he currently looks best suited in a corner.

I still like the chances one of these three gives us a 1.0+ fWAR someday.

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I have no idea of those numbers and don't think they are useful in projecting the chances these three have or making a significant MLB showing.

Phillips is #14

Holobetz is #31 and will likely be top 25-30, next rankings

YRod is #34 and has not been very impressive, but was considered the most promising part of the trade, when it was made.

Also, Priester's final 2025 numbers are not complete, yet. He can still go up or down.

Would I want Priester back for those three? Yes, mainly because we have a shot in 2025, and we could use a 4/5 SP'er, right now, and we needed one earlier, too. That does not change my opinion on the chances one of these three guys make a MLB impact, someday.

Holobetz has a decent .709 OPS Against and a 3.57 ERA in A+ and AA combined. The AA numbers are a small sample size but the 1.87 xERA and .557 OPSA look pretty damn good. I think he moves into our top 25 the next rankings.

Phillips is hard to project, but SPs.com says this:

High-ceiling right-hander with a wide range of outcomes. Has great size and athleticism and huge velocity. Questions about delivery and strike-throwing ability lead some to think he is best suited for a bullpen role, but has the build of a starter and will be developed there. Fastball and slider both have above-average potential and some think his changeup also has upside. Low-usage arm in college, so could have considerable untapped potential.

YRod is also hard to project, as he is just 19 and in his 3rd season of minor league ball- now w GRE w a .661 OPS. He has a non-flattering summary with SPs,com;

Potential solid high-minors contributor. Ceiling of a reserve outfielder. Lacks a carrying tool and is not overly projectable even though he is young for High-A. Needs to add strength and make more impact to have a chance against more advanced pitching. Approach metrics are solid, but lack of impact limits his ceiling. Could stand to improve defensively, and if he can stick in center, that would raise his profile, but he currently looks best suited in a corner.

I still like the chances one of these three gives us a 1.0+ fWAR someday.

1.0 fWAR is a pretty low bar, mind you.

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, harmony said:

What percentage of Red Sox prospects ranked 30 or below have ever played an MLB inning? What percentage of those ranked below the Top 10?

The numbers are low despite an occasional outlier.

I'm sure several good Sox players, especially at ages 19 (YRod) 21 Phillips (no farm games, yet) and 23 (Holobetz) were not top 30, at some point in their farm careers.

Abreu was ranked 29th, Dobbins began at #24, DHam was 30th and lower, once and gave us a huge fWAR season in 2024. Elmer Rod was 25th and traded for Narvaez.

Rafaela was in the Sox system for several years (since 2018)  before jumping to #19 in APR '22.

Crawford was below 30 and then 23rd in summer '22.

Wong was 18th to 20th in '21. Bello was below 30th and 19th in 2020. Duran was 15th and lower, at times.

Hell, Devers was 18th and lower. We got Betts in 2011 and he debuted at #10. Vazquez started pretty low. JBJ was 19th and lower, at times. I could find more.

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

1.0 fWAR is a pretty low bar, mind you.

Of course, but it's not all that bad, either.

If he had said 1.5 or 2.0, my opinion changes.

I really like Phillips and think Holobetz has a decent shot.

YRod is a dice roll.

Priester does have a 2,0 bWAR and 0.9 fWAR.

Some Sox players with a 0.8+ fWAR in a season since 2021:

0.8 Wink (23) Wilson (25) Ref (25)

0.9 Dobbins (25 in 11 GS) Yoshida (24) Arroyo (21)

1.0 Paxton (23) Taylor (21) Richards (21) Ref (22)

1.1 Criswell (24) Wong (24)

1.2 McGuire (22)

1.3 Ref (24)

1.5 Wacha (22)

1.7 DHam (24)

1.8 Schreiber (22) Vaz (22)

These guys went over the low bar or came close.

[harmony]

6 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

1.0 fWAR is a pretty low bar, mind you.

1.0 WAR is a high bar for prospects ranked far outside the Top 100 in baseball.

https://www.twinkietown.com/2021/3/10/22314722/mlb-minnesota-twins-historical-context-top-100-prospect-future-value-kiriloff-lewis-larnach-jeffers

Three lottery tickets have a higher aggregate chance than a single lottery ticket ... but they're still lottery tickets.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

1.0 WAR is a high bar for prospects ranked far outside the Top 100 in baseball.

https://www.twinkietown.com/2021/3/10/22314722/mlb-minnesota-twins-historical-context-top-100-prospect-future-value-kiriloff-lewis-larnach-jeffers

Three lottery tickets have a higher aggregate chance than a single lottery ticket ... but they're still lottery tickets.

It is a rather high bar, but we got 3 decent cracks at just getting one to do it.

Phillips more than decent.

[harmony]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It is a rather high bar, but we got 3 decent cracks at just getting one to do it.

Phillips more than decent.

Marcus Phillips was the No. 33 draft pick after being projected at No. 61 by MLB Pipeline:

https://www.mlb.com/news/2025-mlb-draft-day-1-complete-coverage

Of the 61 No, 33 draft picks since 1965, only 11 (18%) posted a positive career bWAR:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.fcgi?overall_pick=33&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick&from_type_hs=0&from_type_unk=0&from_type_jc=0&from_type_4y=0

Fourteen posted a negative career bWAR, two posted 0.0 bWAR, and 34 (55.7%) had not made it to the majors (including Phillips and three others drafted since 2019),

We all hope Marcus Phillips has a productive MLB career but the odds are stacked heavily against him.

[Hitch]

There is literally no point making this judgement now. Chances are Brewers will be very happy with it in the long run, but seeing as we are nowhere near having the data needed to say either way this is a bizarre article. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

There is literally no point making this judgement now. Chances are Brewers will be very happy with it in the long run, but seeing as we are nowhere near having the data needed to say either way this is a bizarre article. 

Maybe if it was phrased "the Red Sox could still win the trade"... 

[mvp 78]

20 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Priester is a quality MLB SP and Rodriguez is a 19-year-old prospect that has not dominated at ROK, A ball or Hi-A ball.  Great young players don't put up numbers like Rodriguez, they put up numbers like Anthony and Campbell did.  

With as many games as Priester has pitched, he's proven himself as a middle of the rotation starter on a team loaded with pitching.  In Boston, he would be the #2 SP but instead we have a weak outfield prospect that won't surpass Anthony, Duran and Rafaela for many, many years if ever.

Breslow has gathered talent for Boston in Crochet and Bregman and he's lost Sale and Priester.  The Devers deal was by far the most effective deal earning back $260 Million of wasted future payroll and if any of the other parts provide value it's icing on the cake.  

I like the job Breslow has done but Sale and Priester will remain two of his biggest mistakes but he's so superior to Bloom it's not funny.  It's like comparing Bonds as a player to Alex Cora as a player, they are not in the same stratosphere.

 

Breslow didn't make the trade as a one for one for Rodriguez. It was for the value of the whole package: Rodriguez, John Holobetz ('24 5th rounder) and the pick that turned into Marcus Phillips ('25 pick #33 overall). Was it a great move in a year that the Sox are trying to get into the playoffs? Remains to be seen! 

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, harmony said:

Marcus Phillips was the No. 33 draft pick after being projected at No. 61 by MLB Pipeline:

https://www.mlb.com/news/2025-mlb-draft-day-1-complete-coverage

Of the 61 No, 33 draft picks since 1965, only 11 (18%) posted a positive career bWAR:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.fcgi?overall_pick=33&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick&from_type_hs=0&from_type_unk=0&from_type_jc=0&from_type_4y=0

Fourteen posted a negative career bWAR, two posted 0.0 bWAR, and 34 (55.7%) had not made it to the majors (including Phillips and three others drafted since 2019),

We all hope Marcus Phillips has a productive MLB career but the odds are stacked heavily against him.

What are the odds that one from an 18%, a 17% and a 16% do well?

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

There is literally no point making this judgement now. Chances are Brewers will be very happy with it in the long run, but seeing as we are nowhere near having the data needed to say either way this is a bizarre article. 

Nobody is saying we think MIL did not do well.

I even said I'd take the trade back, in hindsight. That is a separate issue. The talk is about what are the chances one of the 3 reach a 1.0 fWAR once.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Nobody is saying we think MIL did not do well.

I even said I'd take the trade back, in hindsight. That is a separate issue. The talk is about what are the chances one of the 3 reach a 1.0 fWAR once.

Plus, rankings are one thing, but Breslow and his team chose these particular players because of their evaluations, and a lot depends on their judgements and on the ability of the organization to develop these guys.  

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

What are the odds that one from an 18%, a 17% and a 16% do well?

Looking at a draft position and saying "well, only a certain % of guys from that pick got a certain WAR" is wild to me. Phillips may never make the bigs. Maybe he has a few great MiLB seasons and the Sox spin him in a trade? After that, why would the Sox care about his future potential? 

Also, we already know the draft is complete guesswork. There's no guarantee on any of these guys, including Witherspoon. 

[mvp 78]

If Dobbins doesn't get hurt, maybe the trade isn't bothering some people as much as it is? 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Plus, rankings are one thing, but Breslow and his team chose these particular players because of their evaluations, and a lot depends on their judgements and on the ability of the organization to develop these guys.  

I could end up being wrong. IMO, the chances are barely better than 50-50, so this isn't a hill to die on, but all 3 have shown promise- 2 of them after being drafted. Many prospects show right away they are never going to make it. treating YRod & Holobetz as if they were just drafted is not really scientific. Phillips- okay. I happen to think he's got a better than 18% chance, but 18 is not far off.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Looking at a draft position and saying "well, only a certain % of guys from that pick got a certain WAR" is wild to me. Phillips may never make the bigs. Maybe he has a few great MiLB seasons and the Sox spin him in a trade? After that, why would the Sox care about his future potential? 

Also, we already know the draft is complete guesswork. There's no guarantee on any of these guys, including Witherspoon. 

My guess is the success rate of trying to put a % on players who have been in the minors already for 2-3+ years in much higher than going by what slot they were drafted years ago.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I could end up being wrong. IMO, the chances are barely better than 50-50, so this isn't a hill to die on, but all 3 have shown promise- 2 of them after being drafted. Many prospects show right away they are never going to make it. treating YRod & Holobetz as if they were just drafted is not really scientific. Phillips- okay. I happen to think he's got a better than 18% chance, but 18 is not far off.

I trust the Sox drafting at 33 now in '25 more than I would have back in the Lou Gorman days, that's for sure. 

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Nobody is saying we think MIL did not do well.

I even said I'd take the trade back, in hindsight. That is a separate issue. The talk is about what are the chances one of the 3 reach a 1.0 fWAR once.

No, that's the conversation you're having. 

I'm saying it's utterly pointless trying to judge who has won this trade (or even, might) when so little of the information needed to decide such things isn't available to us yet, or due any time soon.