Article: Three Big Red Sox Surprises From the First Half of the 2025 Season

[Nick John]

With the second half of the baseball season about to kick off on Friday, it’s a good time to look back on the first half for the Boston Red Sox. A season that was filled with so much hope and expectations at the onset has instead gone through a lot of twists and turns. The team once looked dead in the water before catching fire in June, only to then trade their face of the franchise, Rafael Devers. Since then, however, the team has been one of the best in baseball and is now in a playoff position, showing that anything is possible in a sport where 162 games are played. So, in what's been a season full of surprises, let's reflect on some of the most surprising performances from the roster in the first half.

1) First base didn’t become a black hole offensively after Triston Casas was lost for the season.

Everyone remembers the moment on May 2 when Casas went down, rupturing his left patellar tendon as he sprinted to first base. His season was lost, and the Red Sox now faced a hole at a position where they lacked much depth. On the roster was Romy González, the team’s de facto backup first baseman who had mainly played third base or either of the middle infield positions in prior years. Joining him as what many thought would be a temporary basis at first was Abraham Toro. Toro had been signed to a minor league contract and attended spring training with the Sox, but had been killing it with Worcester at the time of his contract being selected.

The two found themselves in a planned platoon where it seemed González would start against left-handed pitchers and Toro would start against right-handed pitchers. It didn’t last for long, as González found himself on the injured list shortly after on May 7 due to a left quad contusion after colliding with Josh Smith of the Texas Rangers at first base. In his absence, Toro and Nick Sogard stepped up, where the latter appeared in 17 games in May, hitting .296/.296/.537 with four doubles, three home runs and five RBIs.

Toro’s hot hitting continued into June where he continued to play well, splitting time between first and third base following an injury to Alex Bregman and the return of González. In 25 games in June, Toro slashed .279/.354/.407 with five doubles, two home runs and 11 RBIs. In that same span, González also caught fire at the plate, as he hit .300/.333/.583 with six doubles, a triple, three home runs and 13 RBIs in 18 games.

In July, however, Toro has started to fall off a little, as his production has dipped to a slash line of .216/.275/.270 with two doubles and four RBIs. The dip in production, however, has been covered by González, as he’s only gotten hotter once the calendar flipped. In nine games in July, he’s hitting .414/.424/.862 with three doubles, two triples, two home runs and nine RBIs.

The platoon may not be perfect, but given the Red Sox were in early May with injuries leaving them scrambling for a first baseman, the team has done well with the combination of Toro and González handling the position.

2) Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito turned their seasons around after rough starts to the year.

Entering the season, there were a lot of question marks surrounding the rotation after Garrett Crochet. No one knew if Tanner Houck would replicate his All-Star season or if Kutter Crawford was going to be ready as he dealt with a knee issue in spring training. There were even concerns over which Walker Buehler the team was going to get, the one who struggled in the regular season or who had three decent outings in the playoffs. Though, what may have been the biggest question marks were Bello and Giolito, as both were behind schedule in spring training and were set to open the season on the injured list. Upon their returns, neither was much to write home about; Bello pitched twice in April, managing to avoid painful innings as he worked around runners on base, while Giolito only pitched once, a six-inning, three-run performance which anyone would take after he missed all of 2024.

However, it seemed to be deceiving for both, as Bello would then start six games in May, his ERA for the month finishing at 4.03 along with a 1.69 WHIP thanks in part to 33 hits and 16 walks in only 29 innings. His worst outing came against the Atlanta Braves, where he allowed seven earned runs on ten hits and five walks in only 4 1/3 innings. Giolito wasn’t much better in May, starting five games but posting an ERA of 4.85 as he allowed 14 runs on 31 hits and eight walks. Giolito's issues were more about inconsistency, as he would have a good outing followed by a rough one, the worst of the season being on June 4 where he lasted just 1 2/3 innings and allowed seven earned runs on eight hits. His ERA on the season ballooned to 6.42 after the start.

Since those two rough outings for both pitchers, they’ve seen incredible turn arounds. For Bello, he really seemed to catch fire on June 3 against the Los Angeles Angels where he went six innings and allowed only three runs. Since then, he’s gone at least six innings in every game, including a complete game against the Colorado Rockies on July 8 (the exception to that was when he pitched five innings out of the bullpen for a game being resumed in the fourth inning after being suspended due to rain). Since the start of June, Bello has seen his ERA drop from 3.91 all the way to 3.14, while his FIP has also dropped from 4.82 down to 4.21 as he’s severely cut down on the free passes he allows. Across June and July, Bello walked a combined 12 batters; in May, that number was 16.

Giolito has also seen an increase in performance, being tied to his increase in fastball usage. Since his blowup on June 4, Giolito has gone at least six innings every start, having not allowed more than two earned runs in any of them. His ERA dropped from 6.42 at the start of June down to 3.36 heading into the second half, while he also lowered his FIP from 4.78 down to 3.62. Much like Bello, Giolito is limiting baserunners, as he’s only walked more than one batter in a start just three times, the most being three batters. Likewise, the most hits he’s given up has been six. Since his disastrous outing against the Angels, Giolito has only allowed three earned runs across 38 2/3 innings, and he’s cemented himself as one of the top pitchers in the rotation.

With Bello and Giolito pitching to their potential, it helps strengthen a rotation that has seen injuries to several pitchers, including losing Hunter Dobbins for the season to a torn ACL.

3) Ceddanne Rafaela may get some down-ballot MVP love.

Everyone knew Rafaela was a defensive phenomenon out in center field, making impossible plays look routine. However, his bat was always more of a question mark, as he was a streaky hitter that would be overly aggressive at the plate, swinging at the first pitch or chasing often out of the strike zone.

That suddenly changed for Rafaela after a road trip in Milwaukee that left the center fielder hitting .232/.283/.356 on the season. The final game of that series saw Rafaela go 3-for-5 with a home run and was the second game of an eight-game hitting streak. It concluded with a walk-off home run that is the shortest in the history of the Statcast era (303 feet off the Pesky Pole) that saw his numbers rise to .252/.296/.411 on the season.

 

The key difference is the manner in which he’s hitting the ball. Since the end of May, the team wanted him to start pulling the ball more in the air and because of it, he’s exploded. In 26 June games, he would go on to hit .283/.327/.543 with six doubles, six home runs and 13 RBI. Those numbers only increased in 11 July games (so far) where he’s hit .390/.405/.902 with six doubles, five home runs and 15 RBIs to go along with his usual stellar defense.

Manager Alex Cora also had gotten on Rafaela about pulling the ball more, saying to MassLive's Sean McAdams “In this ballpark, especially, he needs to pull the ball. I used to joke around about Mookie (Betts) – there was a year when he was crushing the ball to right-center. It looked awesome, pretty, but it was an out. Kind of like the same thing with (Rafaela) – he can crush the ball to right-center, but in this venue (you don’t get rewarded).”

Rafaela, however, doesn’t think that pulling it is the reason for his success, saying “It’s not really pulling the ball more. It’s just that when I hit it to the pull side, I elevate the ball in the air. I stay with my approach to the middle of the field and I let it happen by itself.”

With this new approach, Rafaela has become a spark plug in the lineup and has won the team a few games with two walk-offs, one against the Angels and another just recently against the Rays in the final series of the first half. His offensive explosion has been a positive addition to a Red Sox team that has gone good lengths this season struggling to score runs. And, with the team beginning to get healthy again, he could have plenty of RBI opportunities with runners on base ahead of him.

Should his productive hitting continue, Rafaela may earn some lower-end MVP votes in a similar fashion to how Jarren Duran earned them at the end of 2024 where he finished eighth.

The 2025 season hasn’t gone exactly as Red Sox fans hoped it would so far, but the team wrapped up the first half on a hot stretch. With the trade deadline on the horizon, Boston may be gearing up for its best season in quite some time.

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[Maxbialystock]

Agree that the last two were both surprises and made a difference.  The first one I'm a little less impressed with, but I like your numbers.

To me the other big surprise, no doubt related to surprises #2 and #3, is how the Sox bounced back without Bregman and then without Bregman and Devers, which included the 10 game winning streak because Bregman was not a factor.   

One more surprise to me was/is how good Bregman, Crochet, Chapman, and Narvaez turned out to be.  

 

[moonslav59]

I think Narvaez has to be considered a big surprise, too. Maybe not quite top 3, but if you seperate Gio and Bello into two cases, maybe he fits into a top 5 surprise list.

1. Giolito

2. Rafaela

3. Narvaez

4. 1B

5. Bello

Honorable Mention: Wilson & Dobbins

Chapman surprised me, but he's been great in the recent past.

 

[Duran Is The Man]

39 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Agree that the last two were both surprises and made a difference.  The first one I'm a little less impressed with, but I like your numbers.

To me the other big surprise, no doubt related to surprises #2 and #3, is how the Sox bounced back without Bregman and then without Bregman and Devers, which included the 10 game winning streak because Bregman was not a factor.   

One more surprise to me was/is how good Bregman, Crochet, Chapman, and Narvaez turned out to be.  

 

Breslow certainly gets credit for getting Bregman, Crochet, Chapman and Narvaez. I just hope they are all still with the team next year.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Breslow certainly gets credit for getting Bregman, Crochet, Chapman and Narvaez. I just hope they are all still with the team next year.

He'd have to trade Crochet and Narvaez for them not to be back.

I hope Bregman takes the option or extends for 3, maybe 4 years.

I'd like to bring Chapman back for a year, and I'd be okay with a second year option with a hefty buyout.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

He'd have to trade Crochet and Narvaez for them not to be back.

I hope Bregman takes the option or extends for 3, maybe 4 years.

I'd like to bring Chapman back for a year, and I'd be okay with a second year option with a hefty buyout.

works for me.

 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

Three good choices.  The 1B situation now has two fading players who have covered things far better than expected so far in 2025.  I hope Breslow takes a chance and brings Campbell back up to play 1B so no prospects need to be traded for a 1B with Casas coming back next year. 

Campbell outplayed the other two top prospects for a longer time period and then faded due to the new book on him.  Hopefully, he has made his adjustments to come back and rake again like in April.  While Mayer seems to be having the same issue Campbell did after 40 games Anthony is still going strong after 31 games but is also behind Campbell's pace.

Anthony at 31 games - .264/.371/.406/.777

Campbell at 31 games - .288/.389/.468/.858    EDGE CAMPBELL

Mayer at 40 games - .224/.266/.414/.680

Campbell at 40 games - .233/.322/.387/.708     EDGE CAMPBELL

As each of the three top prospects have experienced this season during different time periods but the game count allows one to evaluate and compare each player.  Above, you can see that Campbell's start was by far the best of the three but both Anthony and Mayer can surpass Campbell's totals through 67 games by not fading as significantly as Campbell did when other teams got a book on him.  Anthony has played less than half the games Campbell did and Mayer has played about 2/3rd as many games and has faded more quickly than Anthony in recent days.  

For all the Campbell haters, don't be shocked if after 67 games there isn't much difference between the three players.  In the minors are an indication of their skills, then Anthony and Campbell should be close, and Mayer should be behind them.

[Bellhorn04]

There are no Campbell haters here.

There are plenty of fans who give up quickly on guys who are struggling, though, that's for sure.  

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

When assessing baseball players, it may be pertinent to preface by noting "offense only" or "all-around play."

Mayer and Campbell have both been difference-makers in the infield for Boston... one good, one bad.

I'm sure someone can pull from a million stats to show how either was better than the other; I know I read that some metric shows that Campbell was the worst second baseman in the league.

As for the eye test, mine aren't as sharp these days, but with glasses I can still read bb-ref that shows a positive dWAR for MM, and a negative for KC.

[Deja Doh]

Biggest surprises for me in order

1. Crochet

2. Giolito

3. Chapman

4. Navarez

5. Gonzalez (tie)

5. Toro (tie)

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

There are no Campbell haters here.

There are plenty of fans who give up quickly on guys who are struggling, though, that's for sure.  

Just don't say calling phantom people "Campbell haters" name-calling.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Deja Doh said:

Biggest surprises for me in order

1. Crochet

2. Giolito

3. Chapman

4. Navarez

5. Gonzalez (tie)

5. Toro (tie)

 

Leading the league in IP and GS is surorising with Crochet, but his performance has not been #1 surprising, to me.

No Bello or Rafaela?

Toro's OPS is now .739. He may catch up to Dom Smith's .709 in 2024 by season's end.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Giolito can't be a legitimate surprise, since he was paid to eat innings and replace Sale with not superstardom, but quality starts. It just took him two years to do it -- which to those who liked his contract can now vote him the Sigh Young Of Relief Award.

For those who objected to his contract -- since he was coming off a brutal final couple months where he led the league in home runs allowed, and suspect the Red Sox jumped at the chance to sign low -- he's been a pleasant contributor.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Giolito can't be a legitimate surprise, since he was paid to eat innings and replace Sale with not superstardom, but quality starts. It just took him two years to do it -- which to those who liked his contract can now vote him the Sigh Young Of Relief Award.

For those who objected to his contract -- since he was coming off a brutal final couple months where he led the league in home runs allowed, and suspect the Red Sox jumped at the chance to sign low -- he's been a pleasant contributor.

I think many of us were okay with the Gio signing- just not as the only one or the best one.

[Maxbialystock]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think many of us were okay with the Gio signing- just not as the only one or the best one.

I sure wasn't OK with signing Giolito for $40M for 2 years and missing all of last year.  Right now his cumulative WAR for that $40M is +0.8.  

Nevertheless, his turnaround could not have come at a better time.  In fact, Crochet, Bello, and Giolito have emerged as the best three combined starters for the Sox since at least 2018.  

 

[mvp 78]

1. How far off Houck fell

2. How good Narvaez's bat actually is

3. Rafaela being able to get hot enough to get his OPS close to 800

[notin]

3. Justin Wilson.  I figured he’d be released by July and not be a key member of the bullpen.

2. Narvaez.  From minor league scrap heap to legitimate All Star snub. 

1. Devers trade.  Never saw it coming and once it did, I figured it to derail the season.

[notin]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

1. How far off Houck fell

2. How good Narvaez's bat actually is

3. Rafaela being able to get hot enough to get his OPS close to 800

No Romy?  Before the season you said you wouldn’t be surprised if he was DFAd..

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

3. Justin Wilson.  I figured he’d be released by July and not be a key member of the bullpen.

2. Narvaez.  From minor league scrap heap to legitimate All Star snub. 

1. Devers trade.  Never saw it coming and once it did, I figured it to derail the season.

I never doubted Justin Wilson and stood firm against you stating he'd be DFA'd in ST. 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

No Romy?  Before the season you said you wouldn’t be surprised if he was DFAd..

I can only have 3! 

I'm not sure I said he'd be DFA'd because he has 2 options remaining. If I did, I misspoke. I would have always dumped Sogard over him. 

[mvp 78]

[notin]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I never doubted Justin Wilson and stood firm against you stating he'd be DFA'd in ST. 

Yeah, well, Just Wilson doubted you…

[Nick John]

19 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Three good choices.  The 1B situation now has two fading players who have covered things far better than expected so far in 2025.  I hope Breslow takes a chance and brings Campbell back up to play 1B so no prospects need to be traded for a 1B with Casas coming back next year. 

Campbell outplayed the other two top prospects for a longer time period and then faded due to the new book on him.  Hopefully, he has made his adjustments to come back and rake again like in April.  While Mayer seems to be having the same issue Campbell did after 40 games Anthony is still going strong after 31 games but is also behind Campbell's pace.

Anthony at 31 games - .264/.371/.406/.777

Campbell at 31 games - .288/.389/.468/.858    EDGE CAMPBELL

Mayer at 40 games - .224/.266/.414/.680

Campbell at 40 games - .233/.322/.387/.708     EDGE CAMPBELL

As each of the three top prospects have experienced this season during different time periods but the game count allows one to evaluate and compare each player.  Above, you can see that Campbell's start was by far the best of the three but both Anthony and Mayer can surpass Campbell's totals through 67 games by not fading as significantly as Campbell did when other teams got a book on him.  Anthony has played less than half the games Campbell did and Mayer has played about 2/3rd as many games and has faded more quickly than Anthony in recent days.  

For all the Campbell haters, don't be shocked if after 67 games there isn't much difference between the three players.  In the minors are an indication of their skills, then Anthony and Campbell should be close, and Mayer should be behind them.

Personally I want the team to go out and get either Josh Naylor (I expect him to be available) or Yandy Diaz (if the Rays decide to move him) to take care of 1st for the remainder of the season. 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

4 hours ago, Nick John said:

Personally I want the team to go out and get either Josh Naylor (I expect him to be available) or Yandy Diaz (if the Rays decide to move him) to take care of 1st for the remainder of the season. 

Two excellent choices.  Naylor I think will be expensive compared to Diaz because he was supposed to replace Christian Walker long term but ARI hasn't extended him so who knows.  Yandy seems like a long-shot because it's TB giving BOS an advantage.  I don't think they will do that but again, you never know.

Cora has the outfielders all playing out of position so I might consider moving Anthony to 1B since Cora insists on playing Abreu in RF when Rafaela should be playing there because Duran is WAY better at CF than LF.  Anthony should be in LF but I don't think Cora will ever figure it out so he might as well play 1B since his bat is needed as long as he keeps producing.  

I like the idea of loading up and trying for Nick Kurtz from OAK.  He's got a huge upside.  I think he might end up a better hitter than Anthony and he's huge but coordinated.  Give OAK Abreu, Blaze Jordan to play 1B and a SS from the lower minors for Kurtz.  It will pay dividends immediately.

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, notin said:

Yeah, well, Just Wilson doubted you…

He’s not the only one.

[Bellhorn04]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think many of us were okay with the Gio signing- just not as the only one or the best one.

Even me.

[notin]

3 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Two excellent choices.  Naylor I think will be expensive compared to Diaz because he was supposed to replace Christian Walker long term but ARI hasn't extended him so who knows.  Yandy seems like a long-shot because it's TB giving BOS an advantage.  I don't think they will do that but again, you never know.

Cora has the outfielders all playing out of position so I might consider moving Anthony to 1B since Cora insists on playing Abreu in RF when Rafaela should be playing there because Duran is WAY better at CF than LF.  Anthony should be in LF but I don't think Cora will ever figure it out so he might as well play 1B since his bat is needed as long as he keeps producing.  

I like the idea of loading up and trying for Nick Kurtz from OAK.  He's got a huge upside.  I think he might end up a better hitter than Anthony and he's huge but coordinated.  Give OAK Abreu, Blaze Jordan to play 1B and a SS from the lower minors for Kurtz.  It will pay dividends immediately.

So 2 months of Josh Naylor would cost Campbell, Casas and another?  But 5+ years of minimum wage Nick Kurtz can be had for Abreu, Jordan and an A ball shortstop?

[moonslav59]

I would not trade any of our best young players for ANY rental.

[Bellhorn04]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I would not trade any of our best young players for ANY rental.

Not even DD does that.

[urban cowboy]

On 7/18/2025 at 8:55 AM, Deja Doh said:

Biggest surprises for me in order

1. Crochet

2. Giolito

3. Chapman

4. Navarez

5. Gonzalez (tie)

5. Toro (tie)

 

I agree on Crochet. We've generally had bad luck with "injury-prone" types and he's been a total iron man. Love watching him pitch!