Article: Red Sox Rumors: Duran-Padres Link Grows Stronger, Bregman Trade Rumor Shot Down

[mvp 78]

The only problem I have with a Anthony for Skenes trade is that this org seems to be completely punting on ever developing a bat ever again. Otherwise I'd do it. 

[Hitch]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

It will take a lot more than Mayer.

Would you trade Mayer, Campbell and Tolle?

100% agree it would take a lot more. I'd do it with Campbell, I'd be loathe to lose Tolle, too.

[notin]

9 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

too bad Brez didn't trade Devers for Ryan, instead of a grab bag of prospects and a salary dump.

The Twins aren’t just trying to unload Ryan; if they move him, it will be for some pieces they bite as key to the future.  As Ryan has 2 1/2 years left on his deal,! This is far from urgent.

It’s possible that if Boston asks about Ryan, the Twins say “Roman Anthony or no deal”.  This kind of demand is actually fairly common…

[notin]

Just now, Hitch said:

100% agree it would take a lot more. I'd do it with Campbell, I'd be loathe to lose Tolle, too.

On BTVs model, that Sox offer is short by $10mill in surplus value aka still not enough.

If giving up Tolle is an obstacle to acquiring a two-time All Star with only two years experience, you might be overvaluing him.   Tolle is the easiest inclusion of the three IMO…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The only problem I have with a Anthony for Skenes trade is that this org seems to be completely punting on ever developing a bat ever again. Otherwise I'd do it. 

The mad scientists in their batting laboratory created Campbellstein -- they can just build a new one. 

Almost forgot: three cheers for the R & D department!

[notin]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The only problem I have with an Anthony for Skenes trade is that this org seems to be completely punting on ever developing a bat ever again. Otherwise I'd do it. 

At might be a premature conclusion based on one draft.

Breslow’s predecessor drafted bats heavily over arms to bulk the number of blue chip prospects in the system.  Breslow is balancing things out considering the weakness of the pitching in the Sox system these past few seasons…

[Hitch]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

On BTVs model, that Sox offer is short by $10mill in surplus value aka still not enough.

If giving up Tolle is an obstacle to acquiring a two-time All Star with only two years experience, you might be overvaluing him.   Tolle is the easiest inclusion of the three IMO…

I'd just rather us make the shortfall up in another way, rather than send away one of our best pitching prospects. If it came down to it, gun against my head, I likely do it whatever, but I'd just rather a different 3rd player. 

But there's really not much I wouldn't pay for Skenes, especially if we could lock him up long term.

[Bellhorn04]

As great as Skenes has been, I'm not sure the Sox are ready to have the contract he would command and Crochet's contract both on the books.  And there are other pitchers to be paid as well. 

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I agree.  You don't trade guys like Anthony or Mayer.

(Ducks the incoming "I'd trade anybody in the right deal" posts.)

You don't trade guys like Skenes, either, but I get you guys' point.

I am fine with trading top everyday players for top pitchers, though. A great SP'er often faces 750-850 batters per season, which is more PAs than any batter has ever gotten.

[Bellhorn04]

If Texas is dangling Eovaldi, what would it take to get him?

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You don't trade guys like Skenes, either, but I get you guys' point.

I am fine with trading top everyday players for top pitchers, though. A great SP'er often faces 750-850 batters per season, which is more PAs than any batter has ever gotten.

Qualifier: a great SP who stays healthy can do that. 

As I recall, Gerrit Cole used to do that.

[notin]

4 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I'd just rather us make the shortfall up in another way, rather than send away one of our best pitching prospects. If it came down to it, gun against my head, I likely do it whatever, but I'd just rather a different 3rd player. 

But there's really not much I wouldn't pay for Skenes, especially if we could lock him up long term.

The real problem is what Pitt would accept.

Skenes is a PR gem who has lived up to the hype.  He’s only pitched 43 games so far, but he has also won ROY, come in 3rd in Cy Young balloting, and been two 2 all Star games.  And he’s only 23!   That makes him 7 months older than Tolle!  I have my doubts Tolle can accrue equal hardware in the next 7 months.

If I’m the Pitt CBO, I’d want to say absolutely no Skenes trade without Anthony.  Anything less, and at minimum I’m going to be vilified in the Gazette. But honestly, a package of Rafaela, Campbell and Tolle would actually work better since Rafaela and Campbell are both locked up to deals that work within my budget.

That latter deal is does actually work on BTV.  But I think the real Pitt CBO would be VERY, VERY hesitant.  But would you pull the trigger? 

[Hitch]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

The real problem is what Pitt would accept.

Skenes is a PR gem who has lived up to the hype.  He’s only pitched 43 games so far, but he has also won ROY, come in 3rd in Cy Young balloting, and been two 2 all Star games.  And he’s only 23!   That makes him 7 months older than Tolle!  I have my doubts Tolle can accrue equal hardware in the next 7 months.

If I’m the Pitt CBO, I’d want to say absolutely no Skenes trade without Anthony.  Anything less, and at minimum I’m going to be vilified in the Gazette. But honestly, a package of Rafaela, Campbell and Tolle would actually work better since Rafaela and Campbell are both locked up to deals that work within my budget.

That latter deal is does actually work on BTV.  But I think the real Pitt CBO would be VERY, VERY hesitant.  But would you pull the trigger? 

Regardless of where Tolle and Skenes are in their respective careers, I still wouldn't want him moved if possible. Skenes is a freak for sure. But Tolle could be a very hand piece with a 2nd starter ceiling. I'm not just giving that away if I can help it, regardless of how he compares with Skenes right now.

I shuddered when I saw the Rafaela inclusion, and yet I really shouldn't. I'm hesitant to believe he has completely figured it out and that this isn't just some crazy purple patch, but man if he has...

I think you're right in that on Pitt's side it starts with Anthony or don't bother ringing. I'd happily include Campbell, swallow Mayer, begrudgingly add in Tolle. Weirdly, I keep feeling huge hesitancy around the Rafaela trade. 

How does an offer of Mayer, Campbell and Password work out on BTV? chances are Pitt would want some pitching back, however. 

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The only problem I have with a Anthony for Skenes trade is that this org seems to be completely punting on ever developing a bat ever again. Otherwise I'd do it. 

It does seem that way, but our farm needed a "correction," and this has only been through 2 drafts and IFA signing periods, so far. True, most trades have involved adding farm pitching and not trading them away, except the Narvaez and YRod recent deals. Even the Devers trade was for mostly pitching, but that was one big beef about the Betts trade.

I think we may see a swing back towards everyday players, once Brez sees a balance. Our farm ranking may look skewed towards pitching, but look at the recent grad list and how many years of control many of our young ML'ers have, right now. We do need to be adding everyday players, now, to replace some of them in 2-5 years, but I think we look covered pretty well for this gap, except 3B and maybe Catcher.

C: Narvaez pre arb/ Wong 3 yrs (Jo Garcia)

1B: Casas 3 arbs/Campbell 7 yrs+ (Jordan and maybe Tibbs then Ju Gonzales)

2B: Mayer pre/ Toro-Romy arb/ Romy, DHam, Grissom (Romero)

SS: Story 2-3 yrs/ (Arias/Soto/Cason/Ramos)

3B: Bregman 0-2 yrs, Toto/Mayer (Romero?)

LF: Duran 3 yrs, Anthony pre-arb (Tibbs/Rivas)

CF: Rafaela 6 yrs+, Campbell (Garcia/Azocar)

RF: Abreu, Ref 0 yrs (Bleis/Taylor)

DH: Yoshida 2 yrs/ Romy 3 yrs (Cespedes?)

We just added 2B Godbout, SS White & Martin, 3B Winnay, OF King

I think our everyday situation looks way better than most teams. We still need ML pitching more than anything, right now. Our everyday players are locked up, except Bregman and eventually Story.

[notin]

7 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Regardless of where Tolle and Skenes are in their respective careers, I still wouldn't want him moved if possible. Skenes is a freak for sure. But Tolle could be a very hand piece with a 2nd starter ceiling. I'm not just giving that away if I can help it, regardless of how he compares with Skenes right now.

I shuddered when I saw the Rafaela inclusion, and yet I really shouldn't. I'm hesitant to believe he has completely figured it out and that this isn't just some crazy purple patch, but man if he has...

I think you're right in that on Pitt's side it starts with Anthony or don't bother ringing. I'd happily include Campbell, swallow Mayer, begrudgingly add in Tolle. Weirdly, I keep feeling huge hesitancy around the Rafaela trade. 

How does an offer of Mayer, Campbell and Password work out on BTV? chances are Pitt would want some pitching back, however. 

BTV gives Skenes a surplus value of $133mill.

The Sox players have the following surplus values:

Mayer: $54mill

Campbell: $46mill

Password: $12 mill

Total is roughly $112mill, some $21mill short.

For the record, Payton Tolle has a surplus value of $20mill.  Perfect fit.  And we both know Pitt NEEDS to get at least one pitcher back in any Skenes trade…

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

As great as Skenes has been, I'm not sure the Sox are ready to have the contract he would command and Crochet's contract both on the books.  And there are other pitchers to be paid as well. 

He's still prearb in 2026! He's got 4 years to go, and we just dumped Devers!

He's worth trading for.

[notin]

8 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Regardless of where Tolle and Skenes are in their respective careers, I still wouldn't want him moved if possible. Skenes is a freak for sure. But Tolle could be a very hand piece with a 2nd starter ceiling. I'm not just giving that away if I can help it, regardless of how he compares with Skenes right now.

I shuddered when I saw the Rafaela inclusion, and yet I really shouldn't. I'm hesitant to believe he has completely figured it out and that this isn't just some crazy purple patch, but man if he has...

I think you're right in that on Pitt's side it starts with Anthony or don't bother ringing. I'd happily include Campbell, swallow Mayer, begrudgingly add in Tolle. Weirdly, I keep feeling huge hesitancy around the Rafaela trade. 

How does an offer of Mayer, Campbell and Password work out on BTV? chances are Pitt would want some pitching back, however. 

And honestly, if Pitt accepted Rafaela, Campbell and Tolle for Skenes, Breslow should be fired multiple times if he doesn’t pull that trigger. Acquiring Skenes without giving up either Anthony or Mayer is some Nobel-worthy roster building.  
 

Of course on some level, it also feels like George Costanza’s famous “ I figured out how we can get Bonds and Griffey! And we wouldn’t have to give up that much!”

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Qualifier: a great SP who stays healthy can do that. 

As I recall, Gerrit Cole used to do that.

Of course, and pitchers are dropping like flies, these days.

It's a huge risk trading everyday players plus a top pitching prospect for one guy- a pitcher.

i'd hesitate to trade Anthony or Mayer, but I like the deals notin is suggesting. My tendency is to just throw more prospects into the mix, so we can keep the best ones, and maybe a team like PIT might like getting 5 really good prospects (from our top 12, instead of 2-3 of our very best 5-6 or 7.

A rotation of Crochet, Skenes, Bello looks pretty damn good to me, going forward.

[notin]

45 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

As great as Skenes has been, I'm not sure the Sox are ready to have the contract he would command and Crochet's contract both on the books.  And there are other pitchers to be paid as well. 

Roman Anthony won’t play for free, either…

[Bellhorn04]

46 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He's still prearb in 2026! He's got 4 years to go, and we just dumped Devers!

He's worth trading for.

And as soon as we trade for him, Talksox would start howling incessantly to lock him up with a monstrous extension.

You know how this works.

[moonslav59]

59 minutes ago, notin said:

And honestly, if Pitt accepted Rafaela, Campbell and Tolle for Skenes, Breslow should be fired multiple times if he doesn’t pull that trigger. Acquiring Skenes without giving up either Anthony or Mayer is some Nobel-worthy roster building.  
 

Of course on some level, it also feels like George Costanza’s famous “ I figured out how we can get Bonds and Griffey! And we wouldn’t have to give up that much!”

No Arias, Garcia and Clarke, either.

I think any offer without Anthony or Mayer might take this:

Campbell & Taylor/Bleis or Arias & Garcia

Rafaela &Tolle

plus one from Clarke, Valera, Sandlin or Early.

I think I'd do a 5 for 1 trade like Rafaela, Campbell, Tolle, Taylor & Early/Sandlin

Another idea might be to take some salary off PIT's hands to make it better for them. Instead of one prospect, add Abreu (not expensive) and take back Reynolds, even though I don't want him. Adding Keller helps their budget but would add to the needed prospects.

Reynolds is falling off a cliff.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, notin said:

The Twins aren’t just trying to unload Ryan; if they move him, it will be for some pieces they bite as key to the future.  As Ryan has 2 1/2 years left on his deal,! This is far from urgent.

It’s possible that if Boston asks about Ryan, the Twins say “Roman Anthony or no deal”.  This kind of demand is actually fairly common…

Pass.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The mad scientists in their batting laboratory created Campbellstein -- they can just build a new one. 

Almost forgot: three cheers for the R & D department!

Campbell was a Bloom pick though.

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

I'd trade Mayer for Skenes. In a heartbeat. 

Anthony, no chance. 

it's not a video game where you pick the player you want and get him. 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

12 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I think everybody is happy with this trade if the twins think highly of Abel!!!

Trading Duran is a HUGE mistake.  Swap out Abreu and I'm on board.

 

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I agree.  You don't trade guys like Anthony or Mayer.

(Ducks the incoming "I'd trade anybody in the right deal" posts.)

I would trade Anthony for Skenes in a heartbeat.  Skenes is far more valuable despite pitching every five days because Anthony has done nothing to suggest he would be a top 2 hitter in baseball.  Pittsburgh would laugh in Boston's face if Breslow suggested it.  

[Shoeless Joe]

Prospect pitching isn't a figment of your imaginations.
Tolle, Valera, Clarke, Early and Connelly are all legit.  There are several others with intriguing tools though as pitchers are challenged at each level their warts become more evident. Tolle is a beast and seems mentally strong to handle the crush that comes with rising expectations. Trade him could be regrettable. 
Same, too, with Anthony., a potential marquee performer capable one day of putting the team on his back, especially with the supporting cast Bloom assembled. I've seen all these guys, and there should be more optimism than I'm reading here.
 

 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

It does seem that way, but our farm needed a "correction," and this has only been through 2 drafts

It's just swung too far in the other direction IMO. After Jhostynxon and Arias, there really isn't anything to brag about on the offensive side of things on the farm. It's very, very light. 

You can tell by looking at how SP projects their '26 rosters. SAL will have 9 college graduated pitchers, the majority of whom should probably be in GRE to start the season. The SAL offense is probably going to be putrid if the reports out of the FCL and DSL are correct. 

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, notin said:

At might be a premature conclusion based on one draft.

Two straight drafts BTW

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And as soon as we trade for him, Talksox would start howling incessantly to lock him up with a monstrous extension.

You know how this works.

I'd be leading that pack, but so what? We have the Devers money, and 4 years of control is different from the Crochet situation.

Factor 2: Skenes just turned 23! He'll be 27 when he becomes a FA. While that means he will want a monstrous extension, at least it won't be for a 30 year old FA to be. Crochet just turned 26 and he had 2 years of control and would have been going into age 28 at free agency.

Ideally, we extend Skenes for just 3-4 years, but he may demand much more. Maybe he'd take a 2 year extension, giving us 6 years of control, and he'd still be looking at free agency at age 29. Big pay day, if he remains great.

BTW, someday Anthony will be wanting big money, too, and we have already started hearing extension talks with him and Mayer.

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, notin said:

At might be a premature conclusion based on one draft.

Breslow’s predecessor drafted bats heavily over arms to bulk the number of blue chip prospects in the system.  Breslow is balancing things out considering the weakness of the pitching in the Sox system these past few seasons…

That's the way I see it.