Reds (Burns) vs Red Sox (Crochet): 6/30/25, 7:10pm

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

One doesn't see those very often.

.

 

[FredLynn]

The Reds are in the same Little League apparently 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Reds have half as many errors as the Sox, so they're not in the same Little League.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Crochet's ERA may need some body work.

[FredLynn]

Crochet is getting his ass kicked. Good thing because we really need to lose.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Nice play on both ends.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Grand Salami.and an inside the park.

Take a bow Abreu.

[FredLynn]

It’s safe for Kelly to come in now

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Good look when you get K'd by a position player.

[Thunder]

Wilyer is playing like he wants me to drive down to DC this weekend! 

[illinoisredsox]

9 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Good look when you get K'd by a position player.

To be fair, he should have fouled out to 3rd.

It almost looked like he just took it to end the inning.

[Larry Cook]

Burns has some electric stuff!!!  I cannot believe they rushed him up to the big leagues 

[Maxbialystock]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We held the Sale card in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023.

You are right, we should have known to walk away before we extended him.

Good point, Max.

Wrong focus.  The Braves obviously focused on 2023, in which Sale made 20 starts, and kind of ignored the 11 total starts in 2020, 2021, and 2022.  What 2023 told them was that Sale's recovery, while not complete, was going in the right direction and his last 3 starts were pretty good:  15 IP, 2 ER.  I don't remember how fast Sale's fast ball was that season or how good his slider and changeup looked, but I'm pretty sure Atlanta knew.  

Also, what about 2012-2018, 7 seasons when Sale was pretty doggone good?   Don't those count?  Obviously not, and that's a shame because during 2019-2023 Sale did not slip gradually into mediocrity.  Quite the reverse.  He was hurt, got the surgery, got hurt again, and finally had a semi-productive 2023 after 3 straight years when he did almost nothing. 

I think it is unarguable that the Braves were smarter than Breslow who, by the way, has made two other mistakes in Giolito and Buehler.  By my count he is 1/4 acquiring starters.  Plus, of course, he paid Sale's salary his first season with the Braves.  

 

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Wrong focus.  The Braves obviously focused on 2023, in which Sale made 20 starts, and kind of ignored the 11 total starts in 2020, 2021, and 2022.  What 2023 told them was that Sale's recovery, while not complete, was going in the right direction and his last 3 starts were pretty good:  15 IP, 2 ER.  I don't remember how fast Sale's fast ball was that season or how good his slider and changeup looked, but I'm pretty sure Atlanta knew.  

Also, what about 2012-2018, 7 seasons when Sale was pretty doggone good?   Don't those count?  Obviously not, and that's a shame because during 2019-2023 Sale did not slip gradually into mediocrity.  Quite the reverse.  He was hurt, got the surgery, got hurt again, and finally had a semi-productive 2023 after 3 straight years when he did almost nothing. 

I think it is unarguable that the Braves were smarter than Breslow who, by the way, has made two other mistakes in Giolito and Buehler.  By my count he is 1/4 acquiring starters.  Plus, of course, he paid Sale's salary his first season with the Braves.  

I disagree. Had we dealt the card in 2020, nobody would have complained, afterwards.

ATL had no special inside knowledge. Everybody knew Sale was a great pitcher and had a chance to rebound. The rolled snake eyes. We crapped out.

BTW, Sale got hurt and missed the playoffs, last year and is injured again, now. Maybe we can trade for him. I hear Grissom is available.

Another BTW, 1 for 4, especially when the one is Crochet, sure beats our record from 2019-2024. I think we went 0.5 for 10.

[Maxbialystock]

Excellent win.  Too early to say the lineup can make up for no Bregman and no Devers, but in the 13 games without Devers and Bregman, they've scored 59 runs or 4.5 runs per game.  Season to date, they've scored 412 runs or 4.9 runs per game.  

Good attendance tonight, 35,691, against a so-so Cincinnati team.  Maybe it was because of Crochet, but the Sox also averaged 35K per game against the Jays.  Season to date the Sox have averaged 32,994, which is the highest since 2019 when it was 36,106 (thanks to being the year after the best Sox season ever).  

Is it possible the real fans at Fenway see something us nattering nabobs of negativism don't see?  

Possibly.  Despite the 42-44 record, this year's Sox have some cool stuff.  4 rookies, all of whom have started multiple games and 2 of whom just might be as good as their prospect rankings.  Rafaela better than ever.  Abreu still good.  Narvaez a revelation.  Bregman, Crochet, and Chapman pricey but excellent acquisitions.  Duran not hitting as well and fielding badly, but still exciting on the basepaths.  He's tied for the MLB lead in triples with 9.  A healthy Story--who woulda thunk?  If he could only hit.  Oh, wait. He has 20 rbi's in June and a .771 OPS--almost respectable.  Bello best season ever with 7 quality starts in 13 starts and 3.41 ERA.  

Probably not, but those fans are coming to see something.  

 

[Maxbialystock]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I disagree. Had we dealt the card in 2020, nobody would have complained, afterwards.

ATL had no special inside knowledge. Everybody knew Sale was a great pitcher and had a chance to rebound. The rolled snake eyes. We crapped out.

BTW, Sale got hurt and missed the playoffs, last year and is injured again, now. Maybe we can trade for him. I hear Grissom is available.

Another BTW, 1 for 4, especially when the one is Crochet, sure beats our record from 2019-2024. I think we went 0.5 for 10.

Agree on point 1.   I think Atlanta was smarter, not luckier.  Good point on Sox injuries, but they have not prevented him from contributing in both seasons.  

You could be right about the 1/4, come to think of it.  Plus Giolito is helping this season.  Crochet, including tonight, has been unreal.  Sale in his prime.  

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Agree on point 1.   I think Atlanta was smarter, not luckier.  Good point on Sox injuries, but they have not prevented him from contributing in both seasons.  

You could be right about the 1/4, come to think of it.  Plus Giolito is helping this season.  Crochet, including tonight, has been unreal.  Sale in his prime.  

ATL was genius to know to wait until Sale was way past prime to pounce on a trade. 

Sure.

[cp176]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We held the Sale card in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023.

You are right, we should have known to walk away before we extended him.

Good point, Max.

We should have simply kept him forever.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Excellent win.  Too early to say the lineup can make up for no Bregman and no Devers, but in the 13 games without Devers and Bregman, they've scored 59 runs or 4.5 runs per game.  Season to date, they've scored 412 runs or 4.9 runs per game.  

Agreed it was a great win. That's two in three games -- and let's hope it's a spark for more offensive balance with multiple batters contributing consistently.

But average runs scored per game post-Raffy?

In the past two Ws, the Sox have scored 28 times for an average of 14 runs per game.

In the other 11 games, Boston has tallied 31 times. That's 2.8 runs per game. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Agreed it was a great win. That's two in three games -- and let's hope it's a spark for more offensive balance with multiple batters contributing consistently.

But average runs scored per game post-Raffy?

In the past two Ws, the Sox have scored 28 times for an average of 14 runs per game.

In the other 11 games, Boston has tallied 31 times. That's 2.8 runs per game. 

It is definitely one of those times where average is a misleading standalone stat.  Which I find to be true most of the time.

I mean, me, you, and Bill Gates have an average net worth of $39billion.  Does that make you feel better about your current financial situation?

(I am assuming in this example, you are NOT. a multibillionaire.  Not more than $3billion, at least…)

[Bellhorn04]

35 minutes ago, notin said:

It is definitely one of those times where average is a misleading standalone stat.  Which I find to be true most of the time.

I mean, me, you, and Bill Gates have an average net worth of $39billion.  Does that make you feel better about your current financial situation?

(I am assuming in this example, you are NOT. a multibillionaire.  Not more than $3billion, at least…)

Averages are useful but only if you have sufficient sample sizes and adjustment for outliers - which are two problems with your Gates example. 😉

[Maxbialystock]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

ATL was genius to know to wait until Sale was way past prime to pounce on a trade. 

Sure.

Past his prime does not jibe with Cy Young in 2024 or an ERA of 2.52 this season. 

That's why I keep harping on 2020, 2021, and 2022 as false indicators when they were in fact nonseasons because of the TJ surgery and other injuries.  

I will agree that 2023 wasn't necessarily a harbinger of his success in 2024 and again this year.  On the other hand, it came after 11 starts in 3 seasons, so maybe he was a little rusty.  

I'm not saying the Braves were or are geniuses, but in this case I think they thought 2023 was a positive sign as the Sox clearly did not.  In the Sox defense is your argument:  they were just sick and tired of overpaying a pitcher whose last good year was 2018.  I think that's how JH saw him.  So, if Breslow wanted to keep Sale, it was going to be an uphill fight.  

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Agreed it was a great win. That's two in three games -- and let's hope it's a spark for more offensive balance with multiple batters contributing consistently.

But average runs scored per game post-Raffy?

In the past two Ws, the Sox have scored 28 times for an average of 14 runs per game.

In the other 11 games, Boston has tallied 31 times. That's 2.8 runs per game. 

A fair comment, and I was certainly aware of those 28 runs when I put this together. 

However, my point--which everyone continues to ignore--is that Raffy's departure occurred when Bregman was already on the IL, so the Sox have been without their two best hitters over those 13 games.

Or put it this way.  I'm sick and tired of reading that losing Raffy, by itself, was a disaster.   It wasn't.  

For example, the Sox 6 game winning streak was entirely due to the Sox pitching, not the Sox hitting even with Raffy on the team in the first 5 games.  For example,  the Giants are 4-9 since Raffy joined them and the Sox, missing both Raffy and Bregman, are also 4-9.  And in those 13 games the Sox have been mostly on the road and the Giants mostly at home.  Did I forget to mention the Giants have better pitching?

I do agree that those 13 games are a small sample size.  On the other hand, I'm hopeful that the return of Bregman, the improved hitting of Mayer, Anthony, Rafaela, and Story, and using Yoshida and Ref as the DH will get the Sox back to decent hitting again.   They could still lose games, however, if the pitching doesn't improve.  

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Averages are useful but only if you have sufficient sample sizes and adjustment for outliers - which are two problems with your Gates example. 😉

Outliers exist in all sample sizes.  The real problem with my example is 5Gold and I need to make more cash…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, notin said:

It is definitely one of those times where average is a misleading standalone stat.  Which I find to be true most of the time.

I mean, me, you, and Bill Gates have an average net worth of $39billion.  Does that make you feel better about your current financial situation?

(I am assuming in this example, you are NOT. a multibillionaire.  Not more than $3billion, at least…)

Not in dollars -- but apparently I'm a consumer of billions of microplastics in everything I eat, drink and breathe.

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, cp176 said:

We should have simply kept him forever.

If I had to choose, in hindsight, as many are on the ATL-BOS trade, I'd have chosen not to extend Sale. He had one great season out of the 5 year deal and no other seasons that were even good. Most, he hardly pitched, at all.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Past his prime does not jibe with Cy Young in 2024 or an ERA of 2.52 this season. 

That's why I keep harping on 2020, 2021, and 2022 as false indicators when they were in fact nonseasons because of the TJ surgery and other injuries.  

I will agree that 2023 wasn't necessarily a harbinger of his success in 2024 and again this year.  On the other hand, it came after 11 starts in 3 seasons, so maybe he was a little rusty.  

I'm not saying the Braves were or are geniuses, but in this case I think they thought 2023 was a positive sign as the Sox clearly did not.  In the Sox defense is your argument:  they were just sick and tired of overpaying a pitcher whose last good year was 2018.  I think that's how JH saw him.  So, if Breslow wanted to keep Sale, it was going to be an uphill fight.  

Actually, you have called ATL genius, several times.

Yes, Sale was post prime when he won the Cy Young.

Sale had 24 starts in 2019. Was he rusty, then? That was his longest season for the Sox, under the contract extension.