Would you move Rafaela into the infield to make room for Anthony?

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

The fact that Henry had to get involved at all - despite no one actually knowing what they talked about - speaks volumes about how difficult Devers was.  It was never about whether or not he COULD play 1b but rather his outright refusal.  And it would be one thing if Devers or Cora said there were questions about his ability. That’s never come up.  The whole issue was Devers pouting and basically saying in more words “if they’re not going to let me play where I want, I’m not going to play where they want.”   I can’t condone that attitude like you can. And just because he is mashing didn’t make it acceptable.  I might be more sympathetic if the request was done on a whim, but it was made necessary by an injury to another player.  I’d even understand if Devers was in the midst of contract negotiations, as 1b money is less than 3b money.  But he’s already signed a mammoth deal that won’t change if he changes roles.  And the attitude that Breslow should just do his job and go get a 1b is just unrealistic blame shifting.  And Devers knows this; he’s been in MLB long enough to know no one is selling this time of year.  He’s aware the only players Breslow would be able to get are borderline MLB players like Noda who may or may not represent an upgrade, or players flat out struggling to maintain an MLB job and subsequently have hit the waiver wire.  Sure, Breslow passed in Seth Brown this week.  But was that really a bad move?

And Cora has been reluctant all along.  He didn’t want Bregman for 3b at all and wanted him at 2nd.  To me, this looks like him being well aware Devers would be difficult.  
 

Well, Devers got his wish.  Hopefully he can keep producing enough to cover for Abraham Toro…

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

The fact that Henry had to get involved at all - despite no one actually knowing what they talked about - speaks volumes about how difficult Devers was.  It was never about whether or not he COULD play 1b but rather his outright refusal.  And it would be one thing if Devers or Cora said there were questions about his ability. That’s never come up.  The whole issue was Devers pouting and basically saying in more words “if they’re not going to let me play where I want, I’m not going to play where they want.”   I can’t condone that attitude like you can. And just because he is mashing didn’t make it acceptable.  I might be more sympathetic if the request was done on a whim, but it was made necessary by an injury to another player.  I’d even understand if Devers was in the midst of contract negotiations, as 1b money is less than 3b money.  But he’s already signed a mammoth deal that won’t change if he changes roles.  And the attitude that Breslow should just do his job and go get a 1b is just unrealistic blame shifting.  And Devers knows this; he’s been in MLB long enough to know no one is selling this time of year.  He’s aware the only players Breslow would be able to get are borderline MLB players like Noda who may or may not represent an upgrade, or players flat out struggling to maintain an MLB job and subsequently have hit the waiver wire.  Sure, Breslow passed in Seth Brown this week.  But was that really a bad move?

And Cora has been reluctant all along.  He didn’t want Bregman for 3b at all and wanted him at 2nd.  To me, this looks like him being well aware Devers would be difficult.  
 

Well, Devers got his wish.  Hopefully he can keep producing enough to cover for Abraham Toro…

Toro somehow has an 889 OPS vs RHP. 

[notin]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Toro somehow has an 889 OPS vs RHP. 

Carried by his .611 slugging.  But if he reverts towards his career SLG of .382 vs RHP, it’s going to be ugly.

 

His OBP already aligns with his sub-.300 career mark…

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Well , ride him when he's hot 100%

That's what I'd do with every guy. By the metrics, you could do much worse than Toro. He was a highly rated prospect at one point for a reason.

 

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Wilyer, Rafaela, Raffy and Narvaez all have more bWAR than he does. 

what about the gWAR?

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Carried by his .611 slugging.  But if he reverts towards his career SLG of .382 vs RHP, it’s going to be ugly.

 

His OBP already aligns with his sub-.300 career mark…

He's not an option for a team that has aspirations of contending. I think we're beyond that now. 

[notin]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

He's not an option for a team that has aspirations of contending. I think we're beyond that now. 

It’s not even June.  Plenty of teams with worse starts have made the postseason…

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

what about the gWAR?

 

[notin]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That's what I'd do with every guy. By the metrics, you could do much worse than Toro. He was a highly rated prospect at one point for a reason.

 

Never ranked anywhere, which gives him fewer credentials than Jeter Downs.

He clearly has MLB talent; he’s made multiple MLB rosters.  But he’s not someone any team wants as a starter getting meaningful at bats every day, despite his recent hot streak…

[cp176]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Wilyer, Rafaela, Raffy and Narvaez all have more bWAR than he does. 

I’m glad that there are people who care about the metrics used in the game.  I think that they are important for sure.  I’ve watched only 2/3 of the games.  Some I’ve had to listen to.  With Bergman down, Duran is one of if not their best player.  

[notin]

Just now, cp176 said:

I’m glad that there are people who care about the metrics used in the game.  I think that they are important for sure.  I’ve watched only 2/3 of the games.  Some I’ve had to listen to.  With Bergman down, Duran is one of if not their best player.  

Duran is their best option for a leadoff hitter, and he can use his speed to change the course of an inning.  It seems like any time an outfielder needs to take just a couple lateral steps to field his single, he turns it into an easy double.

But he’s really not a good defensive outfielder…

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Never ranked anywhere, which gives him fewer credentials than Jeter Downs.

He clearly has MLB talent; he’s made multiple MLB rosters.  But he’s not someone any team wants as a starter getting meaningful at bats every day, despite his recent hot streak…

Back in 2019, Abraham Toro was among the hottest prospects in baseball.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, cp176 said:

I’m glad that there are people who care about the metrics used in the game.  I think that they are important for sure.  I’ve watched only 2/3 of the games.  Some I’ve had to listen to.  With Bergman down, Duran is one of if not their best player.  

I think Duran was their best player last year. I just don't think he's been as good this year. He's just a step behind what he was. Maybe he'll start to heat up in June? 

5/31/24 744 OPS

June 2024 1063 OPS

July 2024 902 OPS

Aug 2024 966 OPS

[notin]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Back in 2019, Abraham Toro was among the hottest prospects in baseball.

So he was the third best prospect on the Astros back then, back when Boston’s third ranked prospect was Bobby Dalbec.

Hes never made anyone’s Top 100 list, which is not the end-all of prospect rankings (Paul Goldschmidt never made a top 100 list either, for example), but it does still mean he was less regarded than, say, Victor Victor Mesa and Cotton Welker…

 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think Duran was their best player last year. I just don't think he's been as good this year. He's just a step behind what he was. Maybe he'll start to heat up in June? 

5/31/24 744 OPS

June 2024 1063 OPS

July 2024 902 OPS

Aug 2024 966 OPS

Get that man a 1b mitt!!

[Larry Cook]

When you look at our hitting, the problems are 1st base, 2nd base, short stop and center field. And now 3rd base has to cover for Bregman for a while. 
 

The easiest solution to centerfield is to bring up Anthony and put him in left. Move Duran to center and keep abreau in right. 4th outfielder is refsynder. 
 

the infield is a mess!
- Mayer should be at 3B while Bregman is out. 

- story, Campbell, rafeala, toro and Hamilton have to handle the other three infield positions. 
 

- narveaz and Wong at catcher. 
 

when Gonzalez comes back, we send down toro! 
 

the problem is short stop, 2B and 1st base are still dumpster fires!!!!!

 

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, notin said:

Get that man a 1b mitt!!

It was 7 years ago that he played 2b for Lowell. I don't think he's going back to the IF. It must have been pretty ugly considering the defense they put up with now! I want to see the b roll from when they put Refsnyder at 1b in ST! 

[notin]

49 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It was 7 years ago that he played 2b for Lowell. I don't think he's going back to the IF. It must have been pretty ugly considering the defense they put up with now! I want to see the b roll from when they put Refsnyder at 1b in ST! 

I know it’s been a while, but another way to look at it is in 7 years he really hasn’t made much progress as an outfielder.  Last year, he did look good, but this year Hes making 2024 look like some sort of outlier.

Moving from anywhere to 1b seems to be done quite often in MLB.  Why not try Duran? It does open up LF for Anthony. (I fully expect Cora forego this solution.)

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

I know it’s been a while, but another way to look at it is in 7 years he really hasn’t made much progress as an outfielder.  Last year, he did look good, but this year Hes making 2024 look like some sort of outlier.

Moving from anywhere to 1b seems to be done quite often in MLB.  Why not try Duran? It does open up LF for Anthony. (I fully expect Cora forego this solution.)

The problem is that they wait for a solution to present itself (i.e. Bregman gets hurt) rather than creatively finding a way to get the player on the roster. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

I just don't understand why people put so much faith in a small numerical rating, with a decimal, for a player when they don't even know who is calculating it or how it is done. What do they put into the blender that makes it spit out a 1.7 WAR for one guy and a 1.4 WAR for another guy?

Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is a statistic used to measure a player's overall contribution to their team's wins, compared to a replacement-level player at the same position. It's a comprehensive metric that considers a player's offensive and defensive performance, positional adjustments, and league-specific factors. 

Here's a breakdown of how WAR is calculated:

1. Runs Above Replacement: 

Fielding Runs:

Quantifies a player's defensive contributions, using metrics like Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) or Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). 

Positional Adjustment:

Accounts for the difficulty or advantage of playing a specific position, as some positions are more demanding defensively. 

League Adjustment:

Adjusts for the league-specific conditions, such as ballpark factors, team strengths, and offensive/defensive balance. 

Batting Runs:

Calculates the runs a player contributes through hitting, including batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and other advanced metrics. 

Baserunning Runs:

Evaluates a player's baserunning performance, such as stolen bases and base-running errors. 

The whole idea is to calculate a player's total value based on the different areas of the game.  That's all it is.  For a lot of people it adds something to baseball discussions.  It's not doing anyone any harm.

 

[moonslav59]

On 5/26/2025 at 7:11 AM, Old Red said:

I can’t believe Brez didn’t act on one of the dozens of suggested Abreu trades you threw out there. I guess he doesn’t like cooking spaghetti.🤔

I didn't expect Abreu to be traded, but at least I make specific suggestions, instead of vague statements that no matter what happens, you claim "I was right."

You throw crap at Sox management all the time, but rarely give specific ideas.

"Get a 1Bman." Like they grow on trees.

"Bloom is over his head."

"Devers will never move off 3B." (Oh, yes, you did make one specific statement.)

[dgalehouse]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is a statistic used to measure a player's overall contribution to their team's wins, compared to a replacement-level player at the same position. It's a comprehensive metric that considers a player's offensive and defensive performance, positional adjustments, and league-specific factors. 

Here's a breakdown of how WAR is calculated:

1. Runs Above Replacement: 

Fielding Runs:

Quantifies a player's defensive contributions, using metrics like Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) or Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). 

Positional Adjustment:

Accounts for the difficulty or advantage of playing a specific position, as some positions are more demanding defensively. 

League Adjustment:

Adjusts for the league-specific conditions, such as ballpark factors, team strengths, and offensive/defensive balance. 

Batting Runs:

Calculates the runs a player contributes through hitting, including batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and other advanced metrics. 

Baserunning Runs:

Evaluates a player's baserunning performance, such as stolen bases and base-running errors. 

The whole idea is to calculate a player's total value based on the different areas of the game.  That's all it is.  For a lot of people it adds something to baseball discussions.  It's not doing anyone any harm.

 

Okay. Thanks. With all that, I still don't see how one guy gets a 1.8, while another only gets a 1.6. After computing all those factors, they decide that one guy is slightly more valuable in terms of winning ballgames ? Does defense have equal weight with offense ?  Is there any subjectivity involved ? Personal opinions ? Bias ? And studying every play of every game seems like an enormous task even with the available technology. One more thing. They have WAR ratings for players who retired many years before WAR was invented. In most cases, there is little or no film footage available. What do they go by ? Reputation ?  Traditional  ( baseball card ) statistics ? Or what ? I am sorry for being a contrarian on this, but I just do not accept WAR as being the definitive evaluation of a player. It may be convenient to look at and cite, but that is all. 

[mvp 78]

37 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The whole idea is to calculate a player's total value based on the different areas of the game.  That's all it is.  For a lot of people it adds something to baseball discussions.  It's not doing anyone any harm.

For example, it helps to quantify the differences in value between '24 Abreu and '24 O'Neill. Offensively, O'Neill is ahead, but Abreu had a much stronger defensive campaign. Which player provided more value to the Red Sox? How could you quantify it? 

Is it a perfect system? No, but I think it works well enough for our nonsense. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

I am sorry for being a contrarian on this, but I just do not accept WAR as being the definitive evaluation of a player. It may be convenient to look at and cite, but that is all. 

It's not the definitive valuation of anything. Yes, it's convenient to site for our purposes and that's all we use it for. Same with a lot of the other advanced stats. We know where generally how they are calculated and what they say about a player. It's just "what can we talk about more that our own personal eye tests and how could we back it up?" 

In the end, it doesn't really matter too much. Some people go over board with it. Some people hate it. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

Okay. Thanks. With all that, I still don't see how one guy gets a 1.8, while another only gets a 1.6. After computing all those factors, they decide that one guy is slightly more valuable in terms of winning ballgames ? Does defense have equal weight with offense ?  Is there any subjectivity involved ? Personal opinions ? Bias ? And studying every play of every game seems like an enormous task even with the available technology. One more thing. They have WAR ratings for players who retired many years before WAR was invented. In most cases, there is little or no film footage available. What do they go by ? Reputation ?  Traditional  ( baseball card ) statistics ? Or what ? I am sorry for being a contrarian on this, but I just do not accept WAR as being the definitive evaluation of a player. It may be convenient to look at and cite, but that is all. 

Yeah, retrofitting stats has been around the game longer than chewing tobacco and hot feet.  You can get save stats from the 1910s and  1920s despite the save not bring a stat until 1969.  If you think about it, this wasn’t easy to do.  I mean, you needed to review every game for what the score and base runners were when the pitcher entered the game, make sure he didn’t lose the lead, etc.  For every pitcher/every team.
 

As for WAR, there are no defensive metrics on Fangraphs before 2003 (I think?), but there are WAR numbers.  The offense is based on Runs Created, which is a calculated stat with many formulas.  The most common is RC = (H+BB+HBP)*TB/PA or something like that.  No idea how they got defensive runs or base running runs, possibly just simple formulae using TC, A, PO, E, etc for defense.  No idea on baserunning.

[moonslav59]

We all used to talk about what players are better than others, and many times it came down to, "This guy is a little better hitter, while that guy is a little better fielder, baserunner, or whatever...." or "one guy has more power, while the other walks more." It was always hard to quantify the different aspects of the game.

WAR attempts to answer those questions, but it is no debate ender. They do attempt to take out the "subjectivity" as much as possible and base their values on scientific research that tries to quantify how much each event leads to a scored or allowed.

I think they do a pretty good job, but there are flaws and some major variances between bWAR and fWAR that make us shake our heads and ask just how accurate they are.

I like to look at this simple way: compile several lists of players by season, last 3 years, 5 years, 10 years using BA, HRs, Fldg %, OBP, SLG, OPS, wRC+ or whatever single stat or data point you wish and compare it to the top WAR players and ask yourself, which single list best orders the players by overall value?

I think the answer is pretty clear, to me.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Fangraphs:  "WAR is an estimate. You should not use WAR with the expectation that it is precise to the decimal point... WAR works best as an approximation... WAR should be used as a guide for separating groups of players and not as a precise estimate. For example, a player that has been worth 6.4 WAR and a player that has been worth 6.1 WAR over the course of a season cannot be distinguished from one another using WAR. It is simply too close for this particular tool to tell them apart."

 

Baseball Reference: "We present the WAR values with decimal places because this relates the WAR value back to the runs contributed (as one win is about ten runs), but you should not take any full-season difference between two players of less than one to two wins to be definitive (especially when the defensive metrics are included)... There is no one way to determine WAR. There are hundreds of steps to make this calculation, and dozens of places where reasonable people can disagree on the best way to implement a particular part of the framework..."

 

[cp176]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I think Duran was their best player last year. I just don't think he's been as good this year. He's just a step behind what he was. Maybe he'll start to heat up in June? 

5/31/24 744 OPS

June 2024 1063 OPS

July 2024 902 OPS

Aug 2024 966 OPS

I hope he does as well.  The bigger picture for me is that you have the #1 prospect in baseball playing in Worcester.  He has nothing left to prove and deserves to be brought up.  It’s up to the Sox to decide how he should be used .  they do need to figure it out.  I think that they totally blew the Devers situation.  I really don’t have a lot of confidence that they can figure it out but I think Anthony needs to get a chance as soon as yesterday.  

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, cp176 said:

I hope he does as well.  The bigger picture for me is that you have the #1 prospect in baseball playing in Worcester.  He has nothing left to prove and deserves to be brought up.  It’s up to the Sox to decide how he should be used .  they do need to figure it out.  I think that they totally blew the Devers situation.  I really don’t have a lot of confidence that they can figure it out but I think Anthony needs to get a chance as soon as yesterday.  

A perfect post.

[Maxbialystock]

10 hours ago, notin said:

Never ranked anywhere, which gives him fewer credentials than Jeter Downs.

He clearly has MLB talent; he’s made multiple MLB rosters.  But he’s not someone any team wants as a starter getting meaningful at bats every day, despite his recent hot streak…

One more time, which will again fall on deaf ears.  Casas was stinking up the joint before his injury.  His overall WAR was -0.8.  So almost anyone, including Sogard, whose WAR is 0.0, would be better.  

You've left out a key point about Raffy.  He wasn't great at it, but he loved playing 3b and had done so with the Sox for 8 straight seasons.   Good for Breslow to bring in Bregman, but Devers hated losing his slot, and it took a lot of convincing by Cora to get him to embrace the DH.  By the time Bregman was hurt (May 23), Raffy's OPS was higher than Bregman's and so were his rbi's.  He was freaking perfect as the DH, just as Ortiz and JDM had been--and Big Papi played on 3 WS teams and JDM on the 4th.   It is not a criminal offense to have a great DH, but it can be stupid to continue to use a lousy one.  

Breslow has never managed anyone in his life.  He is definitely smart, but he doesn't know jack about managing or handling people.  And that's OK because he doesn't have to be good at that, but he does need to trust his manager, which he clearly did not do when he went directly to Raffy to ask him to play 1b.  Then he made it worse by going public with Raffy's refusal.  

And this.  The pitching has been the biggest problem with this team all season long.  Team ERA is ranked 17th in MLB.  Runs scored by the Sox lineup are ranked 7th and have there for almost the entire season.