Mariners (Miller) vs Red Sox (Bello): 4/22/25, 6:45pm

[Brandon Glick]

Brayan Bello is back! A tough matchup against the Mariners, but still exciting to see him back!

[Nick]

Both teams are two games above .500. Tied for 5th playoff spot. We've leap-frogged the Blue Jays.

We need 2 out of 3.

[mvp 78]

I hope Bello can start the season off strong an that there are no lingering visa issues with his family like in '24. Really would like to see him ball out this year now that Houck has taken a step back. 

[Nick]

Another site has following probable starting pitchers for this series.

Tuesday  Bryce Miller .343 ERA vs Bello

Wednesday Emerson Hancock 12.71 ERA vs Newcomb 3.63 ERA

Thursday Bryan Woo 3.12 vs Crochet 1.13 ERA

[Nick]

I think someone has to go down today. It should be an easy choice, Kelly. He has struggled all of April.

Whitlock has been off 2 days and has only pitched once in last 5 days. He should be ready to pitch 2 innings today. Same goes for Weissert. 

We need at least 5 from Bello.

[harmony]

Through 22 games the Mariners have averaged 3.62 runs per game at home and 5.67 runs per game on the road.

Seattle ranks fifth in the American League, 13th overall, in runs scored per game despite playing 13 of its first 22 games at T-Mobile Park:

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/runs-per-game

The Mariners have posted an OPS+ of 115, third in the league, and an ERA+ of 99, 11th in the AL:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2025.shtml

[harmony]

1 hour ago, Nick said:

Both teams are two games above .500. Tied for 5th playoff spot. We've leap-frogged the Blue Jays.

We need 2 out of 3.

As of Tuesday morning, FanGraphs gave the Red Sox and Seattle Mariners 58.5 percent and 68.8 percent chances of advancing to the postseason:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

As of Tuesday morning, Baseball Reference gave the Sox and Mariners 16.6 percent and 88.5 percent chances of advancing to the postseason:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2025-playoff-odds.shtml

 

[mvp 78]

If the Sox sweep the series, they will have not beaten an above .500 team that is currently in a WC spot, but a below .500 one! Shame!

They must only go 2-1 in the series so that they can finally start racking up wins against above .500 teams! 

[Nick]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If the Sox sweep the series, they will have not beaten an above .500 team that is currently in a WC spot, but a below .500 one! Shame!

They must only go 2-1 in the series so that they can finally start racking up wins against above .500 teams! 

I'm just trying to entertain you with our 'magic' number. 

[Nick]

Zack Kelly sent down, just as I predicted. Pretty predictable. 

The 30-year-old allowed 10 runs, 12 hits and two walks while striking out 11 in 10 innings (seven outings). Ugh

[mvp 78]

Kelly seems like an up and down guy who is gone once he's out of options. When he's going good, you can run him out there. He's just been getting hit too hard this year. He's a guy with good stuff, but is kind of a rollercoaster. Last year, he had the great bases loaded appearance against NYY that was featured in the Netflix doc. 

[Kimmi]

5 hours ago, Nick said:

Another site has following probable starting pitchers for this series.

Tuesday  Bryce Miller .343 ERA vs Bello

Wednesday Emerson Hancock 12.71 ERA vs Newcomb 3.63 ERA

Thursday Bryan Woo 3.12 vs Crochet 1.13 ERA

I am more concerned with the offensive side of things for the Red Sox than I am with the pitching side.  Hopefully, we put up a crooked number early and take some pressure off of Bello.

Let's win this game!

[vegasbob]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If the Sox sweep the series, they will have not beaten an above .500 team that is currently in a WC spot, but a below .500 one! Shame!

They must only go 2-1 in the series so that they can finally start racking up wins against above .500 teams! 

 

[harmony]

7 hours ago, Nick said:

Another site has following probable starting pitchers for this series.

Tuesday  Bryce Miller .343 ERA vs Bello

Wednesday Emerson Hancock 12.71 ERA vs Newcomb 3.63 ERA

Thursday Bryan Woo 3.12 vs Crochet 1.13 ERA

This will be Bryce Miller's first start at Fenway Park but the Red Sox have roughed up the righthander in two games at Seattle:

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-mariners/2023/08/01/717167/final/box

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-mariners/2024/03/31/745279/final/box

Brayan Bello is 3-0 with a 3.63 ERA in four career starts against the Seattle Mariners.

 

[jad]

1 hour ago, Kimmi said:

I am more concerned with the offensive side of things for the Red Sox than I am with the pitching side.  Hopefully, we put up a crooked number early and take some pressure off of Bello.

Let's win this game!

Oof.  Still not concerned about pitching after that 2 strike pitch?  Yikes.

[vegasbob]

Did not take long for Bello to give up the HR on a 1-2 count.     

I think there will need to be patience with Brayan to get up to MLB speed .   Maybe 3 starts

Looking for how he reacts to errors behind him or a couple hits , walks or HBP, or even umpire bad calls against him.     Can he settle it down and stay effective ?

[vegasbob]

I think my question is answered.

Bello cannot pitch into adversity.  About to blow this game up unless he can get a DP quickly.

[jad]

Wow.  Why didn't Seattle challenge that? Replay (I only saw one) looked like he was in the air when he caught it.

[vegasbob]

1 minute ago, vegasbob said:

I think my question is answered.

Bello cannot pitch into adversity.  About to blow this game up unless he can get a DP quickly.

OK, , he made a a great reach at 1B to get the DP although Story's rotational throw was well off line.  Saved his own bacon that time.

[mvp 78]

Breggie

[jad]

When did Duran develop that silly toe-tap? a technique almost guaranteed to make you unbalanced at least half the time.  (I first noticed it years ago when D. Nava came up with that and went from being a respectable hitter to a bust.)  Just watching Bregman--absolute still and balanced,;  reminds me of the way Manny set up.  

[vegasbob]

LOB-sters

[vegasbob]

1 minute ago, jad said:

When did Duran develop that silly toe-tap? a technique almost guaranteed to make you unbalanced at least half the time.  (I first noticed it years ago when D. Nava came up with that and went from being a respectable hitter to a bust.)  Just watching Bregman--absolute still and balanced,;  reminds me of the way Manny set up.  

Those that do it claim it is a timing technique and starter of the swing with more energy.   I think it moves the head/eye line and unbalances the timing between a FB at 95+ and a breaking ball or change at below 90. 

To each their own.  I wonder if there is a correlation factor of toe tappers and BA's or OPS

[mvp 78]

Love Narvaez

[d-money]

Gotta hit miller. 🤦‍♂️ 

[d-money]

Terrible walk to polanco. 

[Nick]

You have Bernardino warming up and keep Bello vs Lefties?

[mvp 78]

90 pitches seems like a big jump for Bello from what he was doing in AAA

[d-money]

Bello keeps falling behind on the count. 

[mvp 78]

Bello put his nuts on the table there