A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

I think our team is built better for a 3 game series than a 5 game series, but with so many days off in the playoffs, it's almost the same.

Our 3 top SP'ers match up well with anybody else's. Our top 3-4 RP'ers match up well with anybody else's.

Our defense has been top 10 over the second half of the season, and some metrics place us there for the full season. (9th in DRS and 10th in OAA.)

Fangraphs has us 6th in baserunning.

Our line-up could be an issue, as we will be facing some that are better than ours.

I've always believed pitching matters more in the playoffs, but other teams have decent pitching, too. AL teams still in it...

fWAR Pitching

18.5 BOS

16.5 CLE

16.3 NYY

15.2 DET

14.2 SEA

11.7 TOR

(The two top seeds are the worst.)

ERA-: BOS 86, CLE 91, NYY 96, DET 97, SEA 101, TOR 103

SP: DET 13.8, NYY 13.5, BOS 11.6, SEA 11.0, CLE 9.9, TOR 8.5

RP: BOS 6.9, CLE 6.6, Big drop) TOR & SEA 3.2, NYY 2.8, DET 1.4

 

 

[moonslav59]

CLE had the worst wRC+ in the AL, this year at 87. The other 5 teams were in the top 6.

119 NYY

113 SEA

112 TOR

(105 ATH)

103 BOS & DET

 

[mvp 78]

Red Sox were 10th in attendance this season and up 1,439 per game over '24. Best season since '19. 

[Kimmi]

On 9/26/2025 at 9:21 AM, drewski6 said:

Go Reds!  They are my show (video game) franchise. But Ive overhauled the team quite a bit.

I kept Elly, Matt Mcclain, and 3/5 of the rotation (hunter greene, lodolo, abbott) and called up their minor leaguer chase petty in yr 3.

Yr1 and 2 I also had Austin Hays, but I outgrew him.  I had Stephenson for a while at C but upgraded.  I have had CES the whole time as a bench player.

I have a soft spot in my heart for Francona, so I've watched the Reds quite a bit this year.  They are the NL team that I'll be rooting for all the way.  I'd love to see them take down the Dodgers.   They have the starting pitching to do it.

[Kimmi]

On 9/26/2025 at 5:09 PM, notin said:

You’re in Virginia, where November is an extension of September.  I’m in Chicago, where November is foreplay for January.

And we have two teams here that play in the Workd Series once or twice each century.  A November game at Wrigley might be cancelled due to Polar Vortex…

LOL  Fair point.  I just hate when the baseball season ends.  The ending would be 100 times better if the Red Sox win the World Series!

[Kimmi]

On 9/26/2025 at 11:28 PM, moonslav59 said:

Also, Narvaez, Chapman and Matz.

The more I think about it, the more I think that Narvaez is the team MVP.  He's not our best player, but with the work he's done behind the plate and with our pitching staff, he has certainly been extremely valuable.

[Kimmi]

8 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Super amped the Sox made the postseason. Even if it's quick, the young core -- most who won't play -- still get to experience the suspense and pandemonium of the playoffs. 

Re. the WC series with all games in NYC: just watching one in the Bronx is a grind, stressing on every swing the entire night that a Yankee won't pop up to right field. The Yanks have five guys with more homers than any Red Sox, and eight with at least 19; Boston has two.

But regular season head-to-head doesn't matter, except to the boys who can carry the confidence of their accomplishments into October. 

Does a longer series give the best team more time to shine and emerge victorious? If so, a short series can favor a club with superstars who can make instant impacts. The Red Sox have two: Crochet and Chapman... even though it's Best-of-3, it still feels like Game One is the Wild Card GAME.

 

The nerves are running high.  As you said, it'll be a grind to get through watching even one game.

There's no better postseason feeling than eliminating the Yankees en route to a title.  On the flip side, there's no worse feeling than being eliminated by them.  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Kimmi said:

The more I think about it, the more I think that Narvaez is the team MVP.  He's not our best player, but with the work he's done behind the plate and with our pitching staff, he has certainly been extremely valuable.

I was one for 7 on my hot takes on '25. I said Narvaez would win the FT catcher job.

[moonslav59]

Rafaela ended up catching Duran for the team fWAR leader among everyday players:

3.8 Rafaela & Duran (ranked about 40th in MLB)

3.5 Bregman (T50th)

3.0 Story (T75th)

2.7 Anthony & Narvaez (T95th)

2.4 Abreu (T110th)

Pitchers:

5.8 Crochet (4th)

2.6 Chapman (T37th)

2.2 Whitlock (T56th)

2.0 Giolito (70th)

1.9 Bello (T75th)

___________________

bWAR

6.3 Crochet

4.8 Rafaela

4.6 Duran

3.8 Story

3.5 Bregman & Chapman

3.2 Abreu

3.1 Anthony

2.8 Narvaez

2.4 Whitlock & Bello

2.1 Giolito

2.0 Pomy

 

 

 

[Randy Red Sox]

On 9/28/2025 at 8:40 AM, moonslav59 said:

...and how many of DD's best additions were made possible by Ben's highly-regarded prospects.

Hey, we probably don't sign Gio without the money saved from the Sale trade. (Sale is hurt, again while Gio will likely start a playoff game for us.)

Gio will NOT be starting in the W/C series

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Gio will NOT be starting in the W/C series

I know. I jinxed it.

[mvp 78]

Local viewership was up 44% this year for the Red Sox per the Sports Business Journal. 

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Local viewership was up 44% this year for the Red Sox per the Sports Business Journal. 

That's a big spike.

It was an exciting team to watch. Lots of drama and more happy endings helps.

[moonslav59]

Down to the biggest game of the season. I'm not so much worried about Early and the pen as our offense.

Just get it done, guys!

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Down to the biggest game of the season. I'm not so much worried about Early and the pen as our offense.

Just get it done, guys!

Even if they win, this playoff run is bleak as hell with Giolito out and bad Bello showing up. 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Even if they win, this playoff run is bleak as hell with Giolito out and bad Bello showing up. 

Bello would need to turn things around, or someone like Early and Harrison just go nutty. The longshot would be the bats errupting.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Even if they win, this playoff run is bleak as hell with Giolito out and bad Bello showing up. 

All that matters is tonight.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Bello would need to turn things around, or someone like Early and Harrison just go nutty. The longshot would be the bats errupting.

I think the bats could always erupt for a game or two, but don't think they'd carry them for a few weeks against upper echelon pitching. 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

All that matters is tonight.

True, travel ball practice. 🥎

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think the bats could always erupt for a game or two, but don't think they'd carry them for a few weeks against upper echelon pitching. 

Agreed.

It'a long shot.

The better chance is that the unsung arms carry us, as many have all year long.

It's all hands on deck, plus we'll have tomorrow off, if we win and the winter off if we lose.

[cp176]

Watching how this team has competed all season has been just a bit dreamlike.  I can’t imagine that going forward any team is likely to do as much with as little as These guys have done.  Playoff baseball is special so you never know what is going to happen when it all comes down to just one game.  Regardless everybody in the organization deserves credit for what they have accomplished.   It’s so easy to sit back and nitpick every play of every inning, to second guess and question every single move that gets made, and to hindsight everything with the usual barrage of what ifs.  It’s what we do as former players and coaches.  Personally I’ve been entertained and my love of the greatest game has been rekindled.  

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, cp176 said:

Watching how this team has competed all season has been just a bit dreamlike.  I can’t imagine that going forward any team is likely to do as much with as little as These guys have done.  Playoff baseball is special so you never know what is going to happen when it all comes down to just one game.  Regardless everybody in the organization deserves credit for what they have accomplished.   It’s so easy to sit back and nitpick every play of every inning, to second guess and question every single move that gets made, and to hindsight everything with the usual barrage of what ifs.  It’s what we do as former players and coaches.  Personally I’ve been entertained and my love of the greatest game has been rekindled.  

Fantastic post, cp. 

I don't think I've ever agreed with a post as much as this one.

[cp176]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Fantastic post, cp. 

I don't think I've ever agreed with a post as much as this one.

Ty.  

[moonslav59]

I'm still optimistic about tonight, and I'd feel a lot better about this season, but even if we lose, I think we took a major step forward.

That doesn't mean we take the foot off the peddle. We need to not only make up for losing Devers, but also Gio and maybe Bregman. That's no easy task.

IMO, we need 3 major additions:

SP (solid #2 type)

Big bat (3B or 1B)

Good bat who can play 1B, 3B or 2B.

If we sign someone like Schwarber, it would be for 1B not DH. (Alonso and maybe Suarez would be other solid choices.)

2B could be a trade for Marte or a Torres signing.

Trading for Keller might be the best we can do for the rotation, considering the budget.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Trading for Keller might be the best we can do for the rotation, considering the budget.

Mitch Keller's been in a lot of trouble lately on Tulsa King.

[moonslav59]

LOL.

I do wonder if Keller would be anything more than a decent 3-4 slot SP'er. His ERA+ has been 102 over the last 3 years, combined. (4.22 ERA/3.96 FIP)

Joe Ryan might be too expensive.

Luis Castillo or pablo Lopez might not take as much to acquire due to their high contract cost, but unless we give up Hicks, why wouldn't we just sign a short term contract, like we always do? (Perez I, Perez II, Richards, Kluber, Wacha/Hill, Paxton, Buehler & Sandoval)

 

 

[moonslav59]

Other possible solutions for our #2 SP'er in 2026:

fWAR 2024-2025

9.8 Sale ($18M team option)

8.1 Cease FA

7.7 F Valdez FA

7.4 Sonny Gray Trade

6.3 Joe Ryan Trade (22nd best in MLB)

5.9 Flaherty ($20M player option for '26)

5.0 P Lopez Trade

4.9 Castillo Trade

4.8 M King FA

4.7 M Keller Trade (46th ranked)

4.1 Ober Trade

4.0 Imanaga ($15M player option or $57M/3 club option)

3.9 Z Gallen FA (big drop in '25)

3.8 M Kelly FA (age=short term deal)

(Gio 2.0 in 1 season but now has arm issues)

 

Any other ideas?

Alcantara?

 

[oldtimer]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Other possible solutions for our #2 SP'er in 2026:

fWAR 2024-2025

9.8 Sale ($18M team option)

8.1 Cease FA

7.7 F Valdez FA

7.4 Sonny Gray Trade

6.3 Joe Ryan Trade (22nd best in MLB)

5.9 Flaherty ($20M player option for '26)

5.0 P Lopez Trade

4.9 Castillo Trade

4.8 M King FA

4.7 M Keller Trade (46th ranked)

4.1 Ober Trade

4.0 Imanaga ($15M player option or $57M/3 club option)

3.9 Z Gallen FA (big drop in '25)

3.8 M Kelly FA (age=short term deal)

(Gio 2.0 in 1 season but now has arm issues)

 

Any other ideas?

Alcantara?

 

Why not wait until this season is over to start the discussion of moves for next season?

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

Why not wait until this season is over to start the discussion of moves for next season?

Walking and chewing gum at the same time.

[MADSTORK]

Like I said not enough offense despite injuries 

6 runs in 27 innings of playoff baseball ain’t gonna cut it..

I will take my hat off to the players who overachieved making 25 a positive season 

need a legit 1A/2 starter and rid the Team of the beer leaguer platoons and players

On to 26 with any luck TEpstein takes full control of baseball ops