A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

NYY's cake schedule is why FanGraphs gives them a 99% playoffs chance. 

However, Sox sweep, plus 7 vs BAL isn't as easy as it looks. BAL has been pretty good if you ignore the first two months of the season or whatever. They won't rollover. Maybe BAL can pull a miracle and replicate '11 again? 

Agreed, and the A's are not a pushover, either. (DET & HOU play them.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I agree. I'm worried about the Sox getting into the playoffs, not the other teams. 

If the Sox go 8-7 or better, they should get in. 

I'm thinking even 7-8, because the other clubs get to knock each other around, too. It's unlikely anyone just goes off and wins out.

[Bellhorn04]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

 

The Final 5 for the final 6:

BOS: 3 NYY, 3ATH, 3 at TBR, 3 at TOR, 3 DET (Not an easy ending)

NYY: (DET today) 3 at BOS, 3 at MIN, 4 at BAL, 3 CWS, 3 BAL (after BOS, the easiest)

TOR: (HOU today) 3 BAL, 4 at TBR, 3 at KCR, 3 BOS, 3 TBR (kinda middle)

DET: (@NYY today) 3 at MIA, 3 CLE, 3 ATL, 3 at CLE, 3 at BOS (Not easy)

SEA: 4 LAA,  3 at KCR, 3 at HOU, 3 COL, 3 LAD (Not easy at all.)

HOU: (@TOR today) 3 at ATL, 3 TEX, 3 SEA, 3 at ATH, 3 at LAA (next 10 are tough)

_________________________________________________

Longshots:

TEX: 3 at NYM, 3 at HOU, 3 MIA, 3 MIN, 3 at CLE (pretty tough)

Detroit has a huge lead in the division, so that's a bit in our favor if it comes down to those games.

[notin]

19 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Detroit has a huge lead in the division, so that's a bit in our favor if it comes down to those games.

Not really.  
 

Detroit’s record has them 0.5 games ahead of Toronto for best record in the American League.  Unless they have wrapped that up along with the home field advantage that goes with it, don’t expect them to sit Skubal.

And if Houston can challenge them for second seed, expect them to go all in trying to secure the first round Bye…

[notin]

47 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

NYY's cake schedule is why FanGraphs gives them a 99% playoffs chance. 

However, Sox sweep, plus 7 vs BAL isn't as easy as it looks. BAL has been pretty good if you ignore the first two months of the season or whatever. They won't rollover. Maybe BAL can pull a miracle and replicate '11 again? 

But in order to miss the postseason, the Yankees would need to lose 5 games on the standings to Texas with only 15 to play.  The lead is 4 games but the Yankees hold the tiebreaker.

It will take a monumental collapse to miss the postseason for the Bronx Bombers.  Especially since they have no games left with Texas…

[moonslav59]

59 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'm thinking even 7-8, because the other clubs get to knock each other around, too. It's unlikely anyone just goes off and wins out.

We would likely get in going 5-10, too.

[moonslav59]

56 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Detroit has a huge lead in the division, so that's a bit in our favor if it comes down to those games.

Agreed, and SEA playing the LAD in the final 3 games might not see their best team.

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, notin said:

Not really.  
 

Detroit’s record has them 0.5 games ahead of Toronto for best record in the American League.  Unless they have wrapped that up along with the home field advantage that goes with it, don’t expect them to sit Skubal.

And if Houston can challenge them for second seed, expect them to go all in trying to secure the first round Bye…

Starting Skubal game 1 of the playoffs is a big advantage, but getting that first round bye pretty much sets that up, anyway, so yes, there is no need to sit Skubal vs the Sox.

The first round playoff teams are the ones looking at their rotation set-up going into the playoffs. (Worst div team + 3 WC teams)

The worst division team will probably be SEA or HOU.

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, notin said:

But in order to miss the postseason, the Yankees would need to lose 5 games on the standings to Texas with only 15 to play.  The lead is 4 games but the Yankees hold the tiebreaker.

It will take a monumental collapse to miss the postseason for the Bronx Bombers.  Especially since they have no games left with Texas…

True, but the Yanks do have some 2025 history of bad stretches:

2-7 to start AUG, including losing 5 in a row.

3-7 mid July

0-6 June 30-July 5

0-6 mid June

6-16 (two June stretches combined with some in-between)

2-6 end of April

One stretch like these, and TEX is right back in it.

 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Not really.  
 

Detroit’s record has them 0.5 games ahead of Toronto for best record in the American League.  Unless they have wrapped that up along with the home field advantage that goes with it, don’t expect them to sit Skubal.

And if Houston can challenge them for second seed, expect them to go all in trying to secure the first round Bye…

True.

[harmony]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 

The Final 5 for the final 6:

***

SEA: 4 LAA,  3 at KCR, 3 at HOU, 3 COL, 3 LAD (Not easy at all.)

According to FanGraphs, Seattle's strength of remaining schedule ranks the third-easiest among the 15 American League teams:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

However, anything can happen.

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, harmony said:

According to FanGraphs, Seattle's strength of remaining schedule ranks the third-easiest among the 15 American League teams:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

However, anything can happen.

I guess at KCR and at HOU is not as tough as it looked a couple months ago.

The Dodgers is a tough series.

COL is horrible.

[Kimmi]

On 9/9/2025 at 4:26 PM, Hitch said:

I'm not remotely worried about missing the playoffs. We'll be there. 

I'm desperate for us to get that home series in the wildcard, though.

If we had everyone healthy, I'd fancy us to nab the division, but pretty unlikely right now.

But no concerns over getting there.

It makes me feel better that you and others are very confident that we will be in the playoffs.  I am pretty confident too, but it would help if Texas would get a little less hot.  I was sure that the Brewers would win their series against the Rangers, but no such luck

Anyway, we can't really rely on other teams to get the job done for us.  We need to take care of our own business.

[Kimmi]

7 hours ago, notin said:

But in order to miss the postseason, the Yankees would need to lose 5 games on the standings to Texas with only 15 to play.  The lead is 4 games but the Yankees hold the tiebreaker.

It will take a monumental collapse to miss the postseason for the Bronx Bombers.  Especially since they have no games left with Texas…

We can dream, can't we?

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I guess at KCR and at HOU is not as tough as it looked a couple months ago.

The Dodgers is a tough series.

COL is horrible.

Some of these “bad” teams also have young talented pitching prospects to debut without accruing service time.  Pittsburgh, for example, looks like a favorable matchup for many at. first glance.  But it’s not so easy if they throw Skenes, Keller, and Bubba Chandler at you…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Some of these “bad” teams also have young talented pitching prospects to debut without accruing service time.  Pittsburgh, for example, looks like a favorable matchup for many at. first glance.  But it’s not so easy if they throw Skenes, Keller, and Bubba Chandler at you…

Good point.

[moonslav59]

The last time we lost 3 in a row (less than a week ago) we won 3 in a row, afterwards (all on the road.)

We lost 3 in a row in mid August, then won 3 in a row and 7 of 8.

We lost 3 in a row in early AUG, then won 3 of 4.

We lost 4 of 5 in mid July, then won 10 of 13.

We lost 6 in a row near the end of June, then won 13 of 15.

We lost 3 of 4 in early June, then won 8 of 9.

The last time we had a losing streak and did not follow it up with something good was late May. We lost 5 in a row, then 4 of 7.

In April we lost 3 in a row and then won 3 in a row.

We lost 4 in a row after our opening day win, then won 5 in a row, then lost 3 in a row, followed by winning 6 of 9.

Maybe this trend ends with this losing streak, but I'm not sure why some seem to have given up on any chance of a turn around. Turn arounds has been our strength, this year.

 

[Randy Red Sox]

On 9/7/2025 at 8:23 PM, moonslav59 said:

The next 9 games:

BOS: 3 at ATH, (day off THU) 3 NYY (HUGE GAMES!) and 3 ATH 

NYY: (Day off MON) 3 v DET, 3 at BOS and 3 at MN

TOR: (Day off MON) 3 v HOU, 3 BAL, 4 at TBR

DET: (Day off MON) 3 at NYY, 3 at MIA, 3 v CLE

HOU: (Day off MON) 3 at TOR, 3 at ATL, 3 v TEX (then 3 v SEA)

SEA: 3 v STL, 4 v LAA, 3 at KCR (3 at SEA)

Very telling week plus, coming up.

Sox will likely make the playoffs but with their depleted lineup will likely be a quick out. They really miss the spark of Mayer and Anthony as well as Abreu they simply must get rid of Yoshida at whatever cost. 1B must be addressed as well as C depth. Navarez started out well but generally has faded in the 2nd half save a few brief moments.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Sox will likely make the playoffs but with their depleted lineup will likely be a quick out. They really miss the spark of Mayer and Anthony as well as Abreu they simply must get rid of Yoshida at whatever cost. 1B must be addressed as well as C depth. Navarez started out well but generally has faded in the 2nd half save a few brief moments.

3 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

 

Narvaez has hit .854 since August 12th.

I think losing Anthony was the last straw. Abreu just drove home the dagger.

When you look at the team to start the season, it looked like our top 4 batters were going to be Devers, Bregman, Abreu and Duran. Casas was maybe 5th or 6th. Anthony, Campbell and Mayer offered big hopes, if given a shot.

We lost Devers for all but 2 months, Bregman for over a month, and Abreu for about a month. We lost Casas for all but a month, and when Anthony showed us he was for real and a top 1-2 batter on the team, we lost him, too.

This coupled with so many SP'ers lost seems to be to much to overcome. I still think we can make the playoffs, and that is a testament to the depth and no give up attitude, but it will be hard to overcome losing Devers, Anthony. Mayer, Casas, Abreu, Houck, Crawford, Dobbins, Sandoval and others for all or most of the season.

Yes, other teams had big injuries and or many of them. I thought we had better depth than most teams, but it may not be enough.

[moonslav59]

What a difference 3 games can make.

83-65 NYY

81-68 BOS -2.5

80-68 SEA & HOU (ALW & WC)

79-70 TEX -1.5 (-2.0 from BOS)

 

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS+ Leaders

149 Devers (traded)

138 Anthony (IL)

136 Refsnyder (short side platoon ONLY)

130 Romy (moving from short side platoon to near FT play)

130 Bregman (missed a chunk of games)

121 Abreu (IL)

114 Duran

108 Eaton (tryin to give us a boost)

103 Story and Narvaez (both big reasons we are still in the race.)

98 Lowe (dropping fast)

90 Rafaela (Hey, he's walking more! LOL)

These were the big drags:

284 PAs (10th on team) Toro at .659

263 PAs (11th) Campbell at .664

181 PAs (13th) DHam at .568

175 PAs (14th) Wong at .525

154 PAs (15th) Yoshida at .605

[moonslav59]

What a difference one day makes, huh?

12 games left.

WC Race

83-66 NYY

82-68 BOS -1.5 from NYY and +1.0 HOU/+3.0 TEX

81-69 HOU

__________

-2.0 TEX (from HOU)

-2.5 CLE

 

In the NL, 3 teams are within 2.5 games of the Mets for the last WC slot

-1.5 The SF Devers

-2.0 AZ

-2.5 CIN

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Romy was not built in a year. But these numbers are comparable:

Roman A: PA 303, H 75, XBH 27, RBI 32, K 84, BA .292, OPS .859

Romy G:   PA 299, H 87, XBH 33, RBI 49, K 72, BA .312, OPS .850

Granted, Gonzalez has batted mostly vs. lefties, but the holey Sox have no choice but to play anyone even tepid full time as they limp down the stretch...

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Romy was not built in a year. But these numbers are comparable:

Roman A: PA 303, H 75, XBH 27, RBI 32, K 84, BA .292, OPS .859

Romy G:   PA 299, H 87, XBH 33, RBI 49, K 72, BA .312, OPS .850

Granted, Gonzalez has batted mostly vs. lefties, but the holey Sox have no choice but to play anyone even tepid full time as they limp down the stretch...

Roman had a bit of a slow start. Take out his first 10 G and it's a 915 OPS. July 4th on, it's 941. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Roman had a bit of a slow start. Take out his first 10 G and it's a 915 OPS. July 4th on, it's 941. 

It sure took him long enough to reach the majors!

Still can't believe he missed that first flight to Texas from Florida back in March, and it took him over two months of searching Map Quest before he could finally find the Red Sox and rejoin them in Boston.

Man, did his buddies Marcelo and Kristian -- who were already there waiting for him -- give him the business for wasting so much time in Worcester. The business...

... imagine how many more Ws the BoSox would have if Anthony, the best of them all, was in the line-up adjusting, a month or two sooner. 

[moonslav59]

TOP SOX OPS since 6/23/24 (400+ PAs)

.878 Devers

.835 Bregman

.813 Romy

.804 Duran

.784 Abreu

.754 Yoshida

.749 Story

.747 Narvaez

.676 Rafaela

.616 Wong

Go to 300+ PAs and add...

.859 Anthony

.824 Refsnyder

.594 DHam

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Granted, Gonzalez has batted mostly vs. lefties, but the holey Sox have no choice but to play anyone even tepid full time as they limp down the stretch...

Not true.

2025

162 PAs v RHPs (.709 vs .498 in 2024)

137 PAs v LHPs (1.023 vs .879 in 2024.)

Over two years with the Sox, yes more vs LHPs but close...

v LHPs

.953 in 267 PAs Romy

.956 in 276 PAs Ref

v RHPs

.636 in 248 PAs Romy

.700 in 223 PAs Ref (also pretty close in total PAs v R & v L)

 

 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It sure took him long enough to reach the majors!

Still can't believe he missed that first flight to Texas from Florida back in March, and it took him over two months of searching Map Quest before he could finally find the Red Sox and rejoin them in Boston.

Man, did his buddies Marcelo and Kristian -- who were already there waiting for him -- give him the business for wasting so much time in Worcester. The business...

... imagine how many more Ws the BoSox would have if Anthony, the best of them all, was in the line-up adjusting, a month or two sooner. 

He should have been there on day one. His swings looked fine. The adjustment was just small sample size of the ball not falling in. He was always ready. They just didn't know how to work him into the lineup when they had Casas/Devers/Duran/Rafaela/Abreu/Refsnyder which is ridiculous in hindsight to most, but to me at the time. We already know the ceiling of the other guys. It's going to be Anthony's franchise going forward. Even ownership was saying that the keys were being handed to the big three. There was no reason to wait on the guy who was the most ready and the most gifted. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

 

Mostly?

Semantics: Romy bats all the time vs. lefties. But lately, he's hitting all the arms. 

Just looking for something positive for an offense that cannot match up with the instant-at-any-instance runs that the Bronx goon squad can score. 

We all knew last night's 6-run 1st wasn't safe, just hoping our pitching could outlast their homers. Even the one HR we hit was by a Yankee from last year...

[moonslav59]

Here are some factoids:

1. Only 7 Catchers have more PAs and a higher OPS than Narvaez at .747. He's also pretty good on D at a key position. He's 9th in Catcher OPS

2. Only 3 CF'ers have a higher CF fWAR than Ceddanne:

5.3 J Rod

5.2 Crow-Arm.

4.2 Buxton (finally a healthy season)

3.7 Rafaela

2.7 Jake Myers (not even close)

3. Despite being a platoon and missing a few weeks to injury, Abreu ranks 7th in RF fWAR at 2.9

4. Top ERA- pitchers with 150+ IP

44 Skenes

55 Skubal

56 H Brown

59 C Sanchez

61 Crochet

62 Abbott

63 Yamamoto

64 Peralta

67 Pivetta

70 de Grom

73 Boyd

74 Fried

76 Bello

76-81: M Kelly, Rodon, G Williams, Woo, Webb, J Ryan, Wacha