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Posted
8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Why did you go with his last 4 starts?  3 of them were good.  His last start was the bad one that hurt the numbers.

It was cherry-picked, of course, but while the "other 3 starts" showed a very nice 2.29 ERA, the other numbers were not great:

4.18 FIP (23 H+BB+HBP in less than 20 IP is not bad, but not all that good, either.

One could argue a 4.18 FIP is barely worse than his 3.98 FIP before those chosen 3 starts, but it did show some mild slippage before the real bad game, his last outing.

The guy has been a big reason the Brewers are soaring, right now. We certainly could have used him over the revolving door at #5 SP'er and even over Buehler, our de facto #4.

Here are the numbers of our #5 Sp'ers:

0.00 Bernardino 1 GS (1.2 IP as opener) .619 OPS Against

1.29 Criswell 1 GS .773 OPSA as SP

2.79 D May 2 GS .641

4.25 Dobbins 11 GS .712

4.43 Newcomb 5 GS .826

Priester in 17 GS (92 IP)

3.03 ERA & .715 OPS Against

It's eye-opening to see that the 15 GS by Dobbins, May, Criswell and the opener game have very comparable numbers and a better OPSA. (Newcombs numbers hurt the comp.)

What's really hurt our rotation is the Buehler-Houck combo, and it is doubtful Priester would have take any of their starts away.

Houck has the worst SP'er numbers in 2025:

9 GS 8.04 ERA/ .920 OPS Against

Buehler is bottom 20% in MLB at...

21 GS 5.43 ERA/ .824 OPSA

Our 4 starter has been weaker than our perceived #5. (Houck actually started the year as our #2 on paper.)

Posted
On 8/15/2025 at 8:31 AM, Maxbialystock said:

Does anyone else agree with me that Sanchez as the third catcher right now is kind of pricey in that he has played just 1 inning?  I know he's the 2d backup in case Narvaez can't handle a full season as catcher, but why is he on the active roster?  

 

 

As long Narvaez can play, and Wong available. you are correct that Sanchez adds nothing, given his NO bat.

If Narvaez reinjured ir aggravated the knee in a game , Wong takes over and they can call Sanchez up over night.

It may have to do with # of options left to move Ali S OR no pressure on the 40 slots right now. so leave him up.  The 26 roster is more critical to manage and Sanchez is costing them flexibility 

Posted

I like where they are.   They just got through a brutal part of the schedule post ASB and their record reflected that in those games.  Now the schedule is so much easier and they have a great shot at post season, it's fun watching meaningful games for once. 

It's important that the young players get post game experience.  I mean just look at what it did for the the Baltimore Orioles.....   .  

Posted
1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

It was cherry-picked, of course, but while the "other 3 starts" showed a very nice 2.29 ERA, the other numbers were not great:

4.18 FIP (23 H+BB+HBP in less than 20 IP is not bad, but not all that good, either.

One could argue a 4.18 FIP is barely worse than his 3.98 FIP before those chosen 3 starts, but it did show some mild slippage before the real bad game, his last outing.

The guy has been a big reason the Brewers are soaring, right now. We certainly could have used him over the revolving door at #5 SP'er and even over Buehler, our de facto #4.

Here are the numbers of our #5 Sp'ers:

0.00 Bernardino 1 GS (1.2 IP as opener) .619 OPS Against

1.29 Criswell 1 GS .773 OPSA as SP

2.79 D May 2 GS .641

4.25 Dobbins 11 GS .712

4.43 Newcomb 5 GS .826

Priester in 17 GS (92 IP)

3.03 ERA & .715 OPS Against

It's eye-opening to see that the 15 GS by Dobbins, May, Criswell and the opener game have very comparable numbers and a better OPSA. (Newcombs numbers hurt the comp.)

What's really hurt our rotation is the Buehler-Houck combo, and it is doubtful Priester would have take any of their starts away.

Houck has the worst SP'er numbers in 2025:

9 GS 8.04 ERA/ .920 OPS Against

Buehler is bottom 20% in MLB at...

21 GS 5.43 ERA/ .824 OPSA

Our 4 starter has been weaker than our perceived #5. (Houck actually started the year as our #2 on paper.)

Priester pitches tonight so we'll have some fresh data.

Posted
21 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Priester pitches tonight so we'll have some fresh data.

I wish him and the Brewers well.

The Brewers were my first favorite baseball team, as Iived in Milwaukee when the started there. Tommy Harper was my favorite player, and when we moved to Maine about the same time Harper was traded to BOS, I became a Sox fan.

I was also in MIL when the Packers were dominating the NFL and the Bucks drafted Lew Alcindor and won championship (after we moved.) I'm still a Bucks and Packers fan.

Posted

The Sox are back at the top of the WC slots- tied with SEA.

We remain 5 GB TOR, who doesn't show any signs of having a bad stretch, anytime soon.

SEA & BOS are 1.5 up on NYY and 4 up on CLE.

+5.5 on KCR

+7 on TBR and TEX

The Sox are tied for the 9th/10th best record in MLB and

-1.5 from a tie for 7th w HOU & SDP.

-2.0 from tie for 6th best CHC

-2.5 from tie for 4th w LAD & PHI

That's pretty damn close to being a top 4 team in mid August.

Posted

Possible roster moves:

Mayer to 60 Day IL.

Claim N Lowe or add Hickey or a pitcher (Sandlin- a DEC Rule 5 guy, anyway, Tolle, Uberstine-another Rule 5 guy, Early, Burdi) to the 40. I do not think we add Jh Garcia.

Demote Toro and call up Campbell or add Lowe to the 26.

Demote I Campbell and promote Criswell, Bernardino, Murphy, Harrison or Fitts (or newly added pitcher)

DFA Ali Sanchez (C) and promote Campbell, DHam or Sogard.

Sept 1st call-ups: 1 pitcher and 1 everyday player from those listed above. (If Ali Sanchez iss till on the roster by 9/1/25, we may keep 3 catchers to end the season.)

Key Rule 5 players to possibly be added to the 40 by December:

Sandlin

Bleis

Mullins

Paez

Uberstine

Unlikely: Drohan, I Coffey, Monegro (IL) Song, Hickey

Winter trades: most likely, an OF'er gets traded.

 

Posted

The whole "strength of remaining schedule" thing may be overblown. We weathered our tough stretch, very well, but here is what I found:

Top AL Contenders Strength of Schedule:

5. Texas (just about out of it, despite MVP's call that they might get "hot.")

9. TBR 9just about out of it, despite a very nice plus run differential)

11. TOR (good to see is harder than ours)

15. CLE (hanging in there despite teams around them doing much more at the deadline. They were sellers! Go figure!)

19. BOS (gotta take the easier teams seriously)

20. DET (not really our competition)

21. SEA (may win the ALW)

26. HOU (neck & neck w SEA for ALW and WC berth)

27. NYY (sad to see, but they have been a bad team for over 2 months, now. 31-37 since May 30th! That's a sample size of 42% of the season.)

TOR still has to play...

3 v MIL, HOU, BOS, NYY, Cincy & KCR. Their "easier" opponents are not all push-overs: 7 vs TBR, 3 vs MIN, TEX, BAL and MIA & PIT.

The Yanks have 17 games vs CWS, WSH & BAL, We have 15 vs PIT, ATH & BAL,

 

 

 

 

Community Moderator
Posted
18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

5. Texas (just about out of it, despite MVP's call that they might get "hot.")

 

You love calling me out, but at least find the post and quote me exactly. That's NOT what I said. 

Posted
6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You love calling me out, but at least find the post and quote me exactly. That's NOT what I said. 

You didn't say you think they will get hot?

We went back and forth on this, and you liked their chances.

Community Moderator
Posted
3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You didn't say you think they will get hot?

We went back and forth on this, and you liked their chances.

I liked the pitching only and felt it would keep them in the discussion for a while (Eovaldi/deGrom). I said IF the bats got hot, they could make a run. Semien is a guy who plays like dogdoo for months and then goes nuclear. Adolis Garcia has a very similar profile. Just those two guys heating up would do wonders for that team and we've seen it in the past. They've been awful/mediocre this year. I said that if those guys got hot, they could make a run. They weren't going to make a run if those two guys were going to still have wRC+s in the 80's. I don't trust Adolis or Semien to be good or bad. They are rollercoaster players. Just a weird profile and hard to predict. It's why I didn't want Semien signed here when he was a FA. 

Posted
1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

 

Getting him back and in true form could be huge. I just hate waiting and waiting, and this rarely happens.

Posted

The AL lacks any runaway team, this year, and even the ones at the top have serious flaws, or they are playing poorly, of late- or both.

HOU has lost 4 of 5, have been shut our in 3 of the last 4 games and have scored 10 runs in their last 6 games. They have been dealing with major injuries, all year. That is catching up to them. 7th in fWAR everyday players

SEA is 13-12 in their last 25, and their pitching has not been what it used to be (10th if AL Pitching fWAR)

NYY have gone 5-1 v MIN & STL, but are still 19-23 over the last 42 games. Their pitching has let up 4 or more runs in 9 of the last 10 games (3 in the other.) 8th in fWAR pitching in AL

DET has been pretty steady and is 7-2 in its last 9 games- mostly vs weaker teams.

TOR is close to DET, but they have gone 10-12 in their last 22. They have the 3rd worst fWAR Pitching in the AL.

CLE sold at the deadline, then have gone 10-6.

KCR has gone 26-15 since May 31st and have won 6 of 7.

I'm just not seeing an AL team, on paper or by record, that clearly looks like they significantly outmatch us.

Everyday player fWAR:

25.8 TOR

24.5 NYY

20.4 BOS (significant drop from top 2)

19.9 DET

19.4 SEA

16.9 ATH

15.5 HOU

11. CLE 9.7

12. KCR 9.2

OPS: NYY, TOR, ATH, BOS, DET, SEA, HOU, 12th KCR, 14th CLE

DRS: TEX, TBR, BOS, TOR, CLE, NYY, DET, KCR, SEA, HOU (top 10)

Pitching:

15.9 HOU

14.6 KCR

14.5 MIN

14.1 TEX

13.2 BOS

12.7 DET

8. NYY 11.2

9. CLE 10.7

10. SEA 10.1

13. TOR 8.2

BOS is the only team in the top 5 for Pitching and everyday players, DET is closest at #3 and #6.

 

Posted
50 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The AL lacks any runaway team, this year, and even the ones at the top have serious flaws, or they are playing poorly, of late- or both.

HOU has lost 4 of 5, have been shut our in 3 of the last 4 games and have scored 10 runs in their last 6 games. They have been dealing with major injuries, all year. That is catching up to them. 7th in fWAR everyday players

SEA is 13-12 in their last 25, and their pitching has not been what it used to be (10th if AL Pitching fWAR)

NYY have gone 5-1 v MIN & STL, but are still 19-23 over the last 42 games. Their pitching has let up 4 or more runs in 9 of the last 10 games (3 in the other.) 8th in fWAR pitching in AL

DET has been pretty steady and is 7-2 in its last 9 games- mostly vs weaker teams.

TOR is close to DET, but they have gone 10-12 in their last 22. They have the 3rd worst fWAR Pitching in the AL.

CLE sold at the deadline, then have gone 10-6.

KCR has gone 26-15 since May 31st and have won 6 of 7.

I'm just not seeing an AL team, on paper or by record, that clearly looks like they significantly outmatch us.

Everyday player fWAR:

25.8 TOR

24.5 NYY

20.4 BOS (significant drop from top 2)

19.9 DET

19.4 SEA

16.9 ATH

15.5 HOU

11. CLE 9.7

12. KCR 9.2

OPS: NYY, TOR, ATH, BOS, DET, SEA, HOU, 12th KCR, 14th CLE

DRS: TEX, TBR, BOS, TOR, CLE, NYY, DET, KCR, SEA, HOU (top 10)

Pitching:

15.9 HOU

14.6 KCR

14.5 MIN

14.1 TEX

13.2 BOS

12.7 DET

8. NYY 11.2

9. CLE 10.7

10. SEA 10.1

13. TOR 8.2by 2 in  the 7th

BOS is the only team in the top 5 for Pitching and everyday players, DET is closest at #3 and #6.

 

And Boston, who lost 2 one run games to the Padres, Lost a game while leading in the 7th and last night lost to the Orioles, with the bottom of the order 0 for. How much is attributable to the players, how much the manager and how much to the GM as directed by ownership? I still look at the inaction at the trade deadline as a lost opportunity. Also, is Cora a winner? I have serious doubts. Our players are competitive with most of the American league as you point out, but Cora needs to take action more quickly to get poorly performing players off the active roster.

Community Moderator
Posted
13 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

And Boston, who lost 2 one run games to the Padres, Lost a game while leading in the 7th and last night lost to the Orioles, with the bottom of the order 0 for. How much is attributable to the players, how much the manager and how much to the GM as directed by ownership? I still look at the inaction at the trade deadline as a lost opportunity. Also, is Cora a winner? I have serious doubts. Our players are competitive with most of the American league as you point out, but Cora needs to take action more quickly to get poorly performing players off the active roster.

How does Cora get players off the roster? It's not his job. 

Posted
22 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

And Boston, who lost 2 one run games to the Padres, Lost a game while leading in the 7th and last night lost to the Orioles, with the bottom of the order 0 for. How much is attributable to the players, how much the manager and how much to the GM as directed by ownership? I still look at the inaction at the trade deadline as a lost opportunity. Also, is Cora a winner? I have serious doubts. Our players are competitive with most of the American league as you point out, but Cora needs to take action more quickly to get poorly performing players off the active roster.

Brez makes the roster decisions, and we do have a few players that would prefer be replaced by somebody better, but IMO, there are much less of those players, now than since 2018, and yes, I'm including 2021's full 26 and 40 man roster. (Our farm + recent graduates is the best it's been since the Betts, Bogey, Devers and others era.)

I was all for better upgrades at the deadline, but I'm not gonna roast Brez for sticking to his philosophy of making trades when the asking price is not absurdly high, like at the deadline. Do I wish he did more, yes. Will he redeem himself, if he makes another big trade, this winter? Yes (like getting Ryan for an OF'er plus prospects)

We can all moan about our pitching staff, but it is top 5 in the AL, despite missing our #2 SP (Houck,) our #4/5 (Crawford & Sandoval,) and then Dobbins, along with our 2/3 RP (Slaten) and other top 8-10 pen arms (Wink, Guerrero & others.) 

We all agreed we needed more 1B depth, and then we dealt Meidroth & Gasper, and of course, casas got hurt.

Some hoped Campbell or Mayer would fix the middle infield issue, or that DHam could play like the second half of 2024, but sadly, none happened. 2B was once again a giant sore spot on the team, and now we are playing a GG CF'er at 2B. I don't blame Brez for not going 4 deep at 2B, though, and if we didn't need Romy at 1B, he could have been 2Bman #4.

I still like Cora, a lot, but not as much as I did after 2021. I'm 100% behind Brez and think he was the right guy for the job. This winter could cement that view, but JH will have a big say in what he can do.

It's AUG 19th and we are 3 up in the WC race. That's a big step up, even if it was aided by almost all the other teams declining in strength as much as we got better. For years, I heard, "So what- deal with being in a tough division," now I'm supposed to not factor that into our success. Hmmm.

Posted

Our pitching staff is now rivaling the Astros for most days missed due to injury.

Current 60 Day Pitchers;

Houck

Crawford

Dobbins

Sandoval

Slaten (due to return in 2025)

Winckowski

Hendriks

Guerrero

Others missed significant time.

Key MiLB arms: Perales, Valera & Monegro

Posted

The Sox have 9 batters over .721 (above MLB average)

Many are slumping, so here is about the worst cherry-picked sample size I could find for each:

.926 Bregman- on the inline, but .840 in last 173.

.845 Romy- .612 in last 43 PAs

.835 Anthony- been on a constant rise from his first game (N/A)

.827 Refsnyder (IL) .691 in last 70 and .678 in last 25

.811 Abreu- .696 in last 85 & .761 in last 341

.792 Duran- been on an upward trajectory, but leveled out .779 in 64.

.729 Story- hard to complain: he was at .585 to end May (.853 since, so N/A)

.721 Narvaez- one of the more impactful declines: .625 in 201 & .304 in 41!

.721 Rafaela- has been a rollercoaster most of his career- .487 in 94 is maybe the worst of the bunch, in terms of being lower and relatively longer. One could also cherry-pick that he's at .800 over his last 252 PAs.

Posted

Sox are 9-8 in the best August they've had this decade. But the way they are playing now -- not hitting at all, and pitching just badly enough -- the final week of the month will be crucial.

Up next: four-game series in the Bronx, another four in Baltimore. To hang in there and avoid an annual spiral, Boston needs to go 4-4. Seems reasonable, but we all know that it will be a total grind to split in enemy territory, 

Community Moderator
Posted
38 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Sox are 9-8 in the best August they've had this decade. But the way they are playing now -- not hitting at all, and pitching just badly enough -- the final week of the month will be crucial.

Up next: four-game series in the Bronx, another four in Baltimore. To hang in there and avoid an annual spiral, Boston needs to go 4-4. Seems reasonable, but we all know that it will be a total grind to split in enemy territory, 

Sox are in the WC hunt. If they miss out, it's on them and not the other teams around them. If they fall apart for the 4th year in a row, it says a lot about the players and the coaches as a whole TBH.

Posted

It's hard to imagine, but the Astros might be playing even worse than we are.

Shutout in 4 of last 5 games (winning that 5th game in 12) and have just 10 runs scored in the last 7 games

I'm hoping this is just a 10 game blip, but our past few seasons have set a trend that looks all so repeatable. While this is a vastly different team than 2024, we need to stop the skid, soon!

Posted

The Sox have had several bad stretches, this year, and always bounced back. I'm not sure this means we have 1 or 2 more bounce backs in us, but for those who swear that what has happened, so far is doomed to repeat itself, why close the door on more bounce backs?

Because the 2022, 2023 and 2024 teams faded away, at the end?

1. We lost 4 in a row in April, then won 5 straight.

2. Mid April, we lost 6 of 8, then won 6 of 7.

3. We ended April losing 3 straight, then winning 3 straight.

4. May saw much of the same: lose 5 of 6 and win 4 of 5, We ended May losing 6 of 7, including a 5 game losing streak.

5. We started June losing 3 of 5, making it a long stretch of losing 9 of 12, then won 8 of 9 and 10 of 12. We followed that with a 1 and 7 stretch before heading into the start of our best stretch of 2025.

6. From June 30th to July 13th, we went 12-1. We certainly aren't that good, but we aren't this bad, either. We then lost 4 of 5 before going on another nice stretch into August, going 10 and 2. Since August 5th, we have gone 4 and 8, and the SKY IS FALLING!

IMO, we will have some more nice stretches and some more not-so-nice ones. There should be some hope we have a little more nice than not nice, going forward, but with the way the AL is this year, we might sneak in playing just over .500 the rest of the way, but beating our rivals more than we lose to them.

Posted
18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox are in the WC hunt. If they miss out, it's on them and not the other teams around them. If they fall apart for the 4th year in a row, it says a lot about the players and the coaches as a whole TBH.

Agreed. Much has changed since 2024, but Cora, Brez and a few key vets have not.

Posted

3-7 in our last 10.

In that stretch the AL's second-best offense to the Bronx BOMBERS only scored their second-best average runs-per-game three times.

If only the Red Sox could've actually scored their average 5 runs per game, they would've won 6 more games in the past week. 

At least we can look forward to the Boston LOBsters getting into someone's bullpen this weekend for a blow-out win in the midst of another half dozen one-run losses...

Posted

Yankees bats have suddenly caught fire and we know the O's are playing a lot better.

If somebody gave me 3-5 in these next 8 games I might have to take it.

Posted
2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Sox have had several bad stretches, this year, and always bounced back. I'm not sure this means we have 1 or 2 more bounce backs in us, but for those who swear that what has happened, so far is doomed to repeat itself, why close the door on more bounce backs?

Because the 2022, 2023 and 2024 teams faded away, at the end?

Your W-L stats all show the inconsistencies of a mediocre club, but even though we have a handful of better players, there has to be an explanation beyond talent for the annual plunge.

If good hitting is contagious, then self-doubt can be fatal.

Does anyone think Crochet is confident that he can give up a few mistake runs, knowing the bullpen will shut down the opposition and save his Ws? Teammates know guys like Wong and Toro won't come through, but when Bregman barrels oppo liners that don't drop in, the pressure builds on all of them.

Even though Anthony is 21, he must know he's already better than most batters on the roster -- but does that mean he feels less nervous to come through when nobody else can? Yoshida is a contact man, but after watching Ks by Duran and Story (the team's two position player MVPs who've played the whole season), how can Masa not worry about striking out, too?

These notions accumulate as the season wears down, especially approaching the stretch run -- which, no matter what Cora likes to pretend to the media, is not business as usual.

 

 

Posted
1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Your W-L stats all show the inconsistencies of a mediocre club, but even though we have a handful of better players, there has to be an explanation beyond talent for the annual plunge.

If good hitting is contagious, then self-doubt can be fatal.

Does anyone think Crochet is confident that he can give up a few mistake runs, knowing the bullpen will shut down the opposition and save his Ws? Teammates know guys like Wong and Toro won't come through, but when Bregman barrels oppo liners that don't drop in, the pressure builds on all of them.

Even though Anthony is 21, he must know he's already better than most batters on the roster -- but does that mean he feels less nervous to come through when nobody else can? Yoshida is a contact man, but after watching Ks by Duran and Story (the team's two position player MVPs who've played the whole season), how can Masa not worry about striking out, too?

These notions accumulate as the season wears down, especially approaching the stretch run -- which, no matter what Cora likes to pretend to the media, is not business as usual.

 

 

One aspect of this season is that every AL team shows the same inconsistencies that make all look mediocre.

Yes, good hitting does seem contagious, and maybe Lowe sparked a hitting pandemic, last night.

Posted
23 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Brez makes the roster decisions, and we do have a few players that would prefer be replaced by somebody better, but IMO, there are much less of those players, now than since 2018, and yes, I'm including 2021's full 26 and 40 man roster. (Our farm + recent graduates is the best it's been since the Betts, Bogey, Devers and others era.)

I was all for better upgrades at the deadline, but I'm not gonna roast Brez for sticking to his philosophy of making trades when the asking price is not absurdly high, like at the deadline. Do I wish he did more, yes. Will he redeem himself, if he makes another big trade, this winter? Yes (like getting Ryan for an OF'er plus prospects)

We can all moan about our pitching staff, but it is top 5 in the AL, despite missing our #2 SP (Houck,) our #4/5 (Crawford & Sandoval,) and then Dobbins, along with our 2/3 RP (Slaten) and other top 8-10 pen arms (Wink, Guerrero & others.) 

We all agreed we needed more 1B depth, and then we dealt Meidroth & Gasper, and of course, casas got hurt.

Some hoped Campbell or Mayer would fix the middle infield issue, or that DHam could play like the second half of 2024, but sadly, none happened. 2B was once again a giant sore spot on the team, and now we are playing a GG CF'er at 2B. I don't blame Brez for not going 4 deep at 2B, though, and if we didn't need Romy at 1B, he could have been 2Bman #4.

I still like Cora, a lot, but not as much as I did after 2021. I'm 100% behind Brez and think he was the right guy for the job. This winter could cement that view, but JH will have a big say in what he can do.

It's AUG 19th and we are 3 up in the WC race. That's a big step up, even if it was aided by almost all the other teams declining in strength as much as we got better. For years, I heard, "So what- deal with being in a tough division," now I'm supposed to not factor that into our success. Hmmm.

You're saying Cora has no input on roster decisions? I don't believe that is the case or should be. I'm for at least getting to the playoffs this year, not in a few years. When I see decisions and moves that don't help the team reach that goal, I start wondering why. Results have to count. How many years have we waited and been fed the line, wait until next year. Add another unfortunate loss last night to the frustration. Toro's still in the lineup and went 0 for 6. C'mor choose files...on Brez and Cora. No more excuses, 

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