A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

September calls up a few weeks away. Fitts, Murphy and Bearnadino are on the 40 man roster!!! 
 

does slaten have any chance of coming back by the end of the season?????

With the new rules, they can only have 14 pitchers max. One extra call up on both sides of the ball doesn't really move the needle for me. They probably call up Hamilton as a speed option. 

Slaten has thrown bullpens and "should" be ready. I wouldn't count on it. 

[moonslav59]

I think we call up Hamilton and...

Criswell, but only if we start him

or

Bernardino, who has one of the team's best OPS Against, this year:

70+ PAs against

.403 Chapman (leads MLB)

.465 Slaten (IL)

.530 Guerrero (IL)

.556 Whitlock

.568 Bernardino (demoted)

.613 Crochet

.614 Murphy (demoted)

.645 Weissert

With 2 of the top 8 demoted (and Guerrero was, too) Brez & Cora must not value OPS Against as having much pull.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think we call up Hamilton and...

Criswell, but only if we start him

or

Bernardino, who has one of the team's best OPS Against, this year:

70+ PAs against

.403 Chapman (leads MLB)

.465 Slaten (IL)

.530 Guerrero (IL)

.556 Whitlock

.568 Bernardino (demoted)

.613 Crochet

.614 Murphy (demoted)

.645 Weissert

With 2 of the top 8 demoted (and Guerrero was, too) Brez & Cora must not value OPS Against as having much pull.

 

 

I think they just wanted Bernardino to get a bit of a rest.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

I think they just wanted Bernardino to get a bit of a rest.

Could be, so if true, all the more reason he will be a "call-up," either soon of on Sept 1st.

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think they just wanted Bernardino to get a bit of a rest.

That's what I thought.  

[mvp 78]

Bernardino has only pitched 3 innings since being added to the WOO roster 2 weeks ago. 

[Maxbialystock]

In line with "A Realistic View of 2025," I think it appropriate to look at attendance.  By that I mean that here on talksox we are more than happy to find fault with the Sox.  But those who go to the games are paying dearly for the experience.

The best Sox team ever, 2018, had average home attendance of 36,747, ranked 9th in MLB.  Their average road attendance was 29,992, ranked 9th.

This year's Sox have an average home attendance of just 33,664, but are also ranked 9th in MLB.  Average road attendance is 31,145, ranked 6th and significantly better than 2018.  

 

[Maxbialystock]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Bernardino has only pitched 3 innings since being added to the WOO roster 2 weeks ago. 

Thus it is proved.  

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

In line with "A Realistic View of 2025," I think it appropriate to look at attendance.  By that I mean that here on talksox we are more than happy to find fault with the Sox.  But those who go to the games are paying dearly for the experience.

The best Sox team ever, 2018, had average home attendance of 36,747, ranked 9th in MLB.  Their average road attendance was 29,992, ranked 9th.

This year's Sox have an average home attendance of just 33,664, but are also ranked 9th in MLB.  Average road attendance is 31,145, ranked 6th and significantly better than 2018.  

 

Why compare it to 2018? Attendance is up from last season's 32,839. The is on track to be the highest attended season since 2019 when they averaged 35,994. This year's attendance is close to 2003's, but is dwarfed by every year from 04-19. 

Can't really put much stock into road attendance numbers as other teams fluctuate significantly year to year and the Sox visit different NL parks each season.  

[Maxbialystock]

Does anyone else agree with me that Sanchez as the third catcher right now is kind of pricey in that he has played just 1 inning?  I know he's the 2d backup in case Narvaez can't handle a full season as catcher, but why is he on the active roster?  

 

 

[moonslav59]

Having such a small park keeps the Sox from ever having 40-50K, like some stadiums allow.

People like to watch the Sox, in person and on TV. They are a money-making team.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Maxbialystock said:

Does anyone else agree with me that Sanchez as the third catcher right now is kind of pricey in that he has played just 1 inning?  I know he's the 2d backup in case Narvaez can't handle a full season as catcher, but why is he on the active roster?  

Because narvaez was banged up and already at 730 innings, after not starting the year as the #1 catcher.

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Does anyone else agree with me that Sanchez as the third catcher right now is kind of pricey in that he has played just 1 inning?  I know he's the 2d backup in case Narvaez can't handle a full season as catcher, but why is he on the active roster?  

 

 

I think it's just a very temporary solution not for the remainder of the season.

[Maxbialystock]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why compare it to 2018? Attendance is up from last season's 32,839. The is on track to be the highest attended season since 2019 when they averaged 35,994. This year's attendance is close to 2003's, but is dwarfed by every year from 04-19. 

Can't really put much stock into road attendance numbers as other teams fluctuate significantly year to year and the Sox visit different NL parks each season.  

The Sox won 4 WS during 2004-19, the most in MLB. Same time period, the Yankees won 1 WS.    

Covid in 2020 had an effect on attendance in 2020 and 2021, but attendance was pretty close to normal by 2022.  But the Sox have not recovered, mostly because of not making the postseason, but also because fans knew JH wanted to spend less on players.  Nevertheless, I like that the Sox are 9th now.  

You are dead right about road attendance.  The Pirates right now are 5th.   Rampaging Milwaukee is 23d in road attendance.  

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

42 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Because narvaez was banged up and already at 730 innings, after not starting the year as the #1 catcher.

Completely agree about Narvaez, but why 3 catchers when Wong is already a reliable backup despite lousy hitting?  Can't Sanchez be sent to Worcester instead of using up a roster slot?  

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Nevertheless, I like that the Sox are 9th now.  

Sox will typically be 6th - 12th place just because of the size of Fenway. If they are 6 or 7, it's because attendance at larger ballparks is down. Even when they were really packing it in, they were still 8th or 9th almost every season. Attendance has been a little slow to rebound since COVID and that's due to high prices combined with mediocre baseball and lack of recognizable players to the general public. Maybe it also just won't get back to the highs of 04-19 again? 

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Completely agree about Narvaez, but why 3 catchers when Wong is already a reliable backup despite lousy hitting?  Can't Sanchez be sent to Worcester instead of using up a roster slot?  

I think Sanchez was injury insurance due to Narvaez's knee situation. Once they are comfortable with that, Sanchez is gone. 

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Completely agree about Narvaez, but why 3 catchers when Wong is already a reliable backup despite lousy hitting?  Can't Sanchez be sent to Worcester instead of using up a roster slot?  

If Wong gets hurt or needs a rest, we needed the 3rd catcher. 

(I'm okay if the DFA Sanchez, today.)

[moonslav59]

10th best record in MLB and best run differential in AL. (3rd best in MLB- ahead of the Dodgers and Phillies!)

Whodathunk...

+161 MIL

+114 CHC

+94 BOS

+91 NYY

+84 DET

+83 PHI

+80 LAD

+56 TEX (17th best record)

+52 SDP

+49 CIN (14th best)

+47 TOR (2nd Best record)

+43 TBR (21 best!!!! WOW!)

+38 HOU (8th best record)

+37 SEA (9th best)

[moonslav59]

Another take on the Priester trade...

https://fanrecap.com/boston-red-sox/red-sox-trade-for-priester-suddenly-pays-off-in-big-way--Gs4h6

[Duran Is The Man]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Another take on the Priester trade...

https://fanrecap.com/boston-red-sox/red-sox-trade-for-priester-suddenly-pays-off-in-big-way--Gs4h6

Sox still got screwed in this deal. i'd trade all three -right now- back to Milwaukee for Priester. 

[Hugh2]

I’ll take my victory laps on Giolito and Story now.  I knew if healthy and kind right those two would produce, and they have.

[Hugh2]

43 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Sox still got screwed in this deal. i'd trade all three -right now- back to Milwaukee for Priester. 

You have no idea Preister would be this good with the Sox.  The only evidence we have up to this point was the fact that he wasn’t.

[Bellhorn04]

37 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

You have no idea Preister would be this good with the Sox.  The only evidence we have up to this point was the fact that he wasn’t.

You're talking about the 5 innings with Boston and the 4 innings with Worcester?  There's no evidence to go on.

This was basically a property flip.

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You're talking about the 5 innings with Boston and the 4 Innings with Worcester?

This was basically a property flip.

Well, then look at his body of work prior.  Regardless.

 

His best stat this season is his w-l.  None of his stats are elite or overly impressive.  
 

3 BB/9 7.2 SO/9 8.2 H/9  and a 4.21 whip suggests he’s been helped by good defense and playing in Milwaukee.

 

im not trying to poo poo Preister, but it’s not like he’s been this godly pitcher this year.  It’s unlikely he receives any CY-Young votes, unlike someone like….Nick Pivetta

[notin]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

You have no idea Preister would be this good with the Sox.  The only evidence we have up to this point was the fact that he wasn’t.

To be fair, we knew Priester was a RHSP capable of pitching in MLB, and trading him away needlessly depleted our depth.  Some of us said so at the time.

We also knew he was rarely if ever hurt.  In fact, some legends have it Priester can only feel pain when stabbed by a knife that’s engulfed in the light of a waxing moon.  The man is a legend…

[Maxbialystock]

23 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Having such a small park keeps the Sox from ever having 40-50K, like some stadiums allow.

People like to watch the Sox, in person and on TV. They are a money-making team.

Actually, I think MLB teams have realized that bigger ballparks aren't always better.  Fenway is the smallest at about 38K (37,755) capacity and 18 other MLB teams are within 4K of that. 

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Sox still got screwed in this deal. i'd trade all three -right now- back to Milwaukee for Priester. 

So far, for this year, yes, and this year looks like a wide open window of a chance. I get it.

Someday, we may look at this trade differently, just as we are starting to change our views on the Story & Gio signings.

BTW, Priester has a 4.13 ERA and 5.15 FIP in his last 4 starts, so his end might be changing towards the bad.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Actually, I think MLB teams have realized that bigger ballparks aren't always better.  Fenway is the smallest at about 38K (37,755) capacity and 18 other MLB teams are within 4K of that. 

I think teams that have larger attendance numbers due to having a bigger park, often paid for by the community would disagree.

The parks smaller than ours, MIA, CLE, ATH & TBR all are very low in attendance numbers, but a bigger park would not help them, unless a location change might be part of the upgrade.

PIT, KCR & MIN are just above our capacity and would also not likely benefit from having parks 5-10K larger.

The Dodgers have almost 8K more capacity than the #2 team, and it helps them make more revenue than anyone else- that and their fat TV contract. AZ, SEA, COL & NYY are next and all over 46K. All but the Yanks have lower attendance than the Sox, so you make a good point.

The top avg Attn teams and their rankings on park capacity:

1 LAD 1

2 NYY 5

3 SDP 21

4 PHI 10

5 NYM 11

6 CHC 13

7 ATL 16

8 SFG 15

9 BOS 26

10 HOU 16

The thing is, teams #9-22 in capacity are all within about 3K seat from each other. (39K to 42K) They all can get 2-5K more per game and often do. Many still end up below the Sox, because they have many games under Fenway's capacity.

 

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

So far, for this year, yes, and this year looks like a wide open window of a chance. I get it.

Someday, we may look at this trade differently, just as we are starting to change our views on the Story & Gio signings.

BTW, Priester has a 4.13 ERA and 5.15 FIP in his last 4 starts, so his end might be changing towards the bad.

Why did you go with his last 4 starts?  3 of them were good.  His last start was the bad one that hurt the numbers.